What Will Become of Conor Jackson?

Fun fact: Of all first basemen with at least 500 plate appearances, Conor Jackson finished last in home runs with 12.

Throughout his minor league career, Conor Jackson was known as a hitter with "developing power." A doubles hitter who was eventually supposed to turn his extra-base hits into homeruns. Now 26 years old, and playing in Chase Field, one of the most homerun friendly venues in the major leagues, it seems safe to say that his power is not coming--at least not in the amount that was originally expected from him.

It's no secret that teams expect superior power numbers out of their first baseman-- power numbers that Jackson doesn't have. Even though he can't mash the ball like Ryan Howard, Jackson can still be extremely productive.

While he doesn't have homerun power, Jackson does possess solid gap-power, hitting 31 doubles last year. His line drive rate was the best of his career at 22% (anything above 20% is considered great), he should be able to sustain and maybe even build upon this impressive figure. CoJack also shows fantastic plate discipline, walking as much as he strikes out, and above average speed from a notoriously slow position, stealing 10 bases (second most of all first basemen last year).

As for Jackson's power over the next couple of years, it should hover around 15 homeruns. His flyball rate and homerun per flyball rate dropped a bit last year, they both ended up falling a good amount behind his career norms so a rebound could come next year. Jackson is also entering the prime of his career and with a little luck he could hit as many as 20 homeruns this year.

The bottom line is that Conor Jackson is more valuable than he is perceived to be. His line last year was .300/.376/.446; players who can put up those numbers, from any position, don't grow on trees. Even though he does not fit the heavy, mashing first basemen stereotype, he makes up for his lack of longballs with excellent plate discipline, good speed, and fantastic contact skills. Look for Jackson to take another step forward in 2009.