#19 Buster Posey, C, SF - The 5th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Posey only got 37 at-bats split between rookie league and A-. The 22 year old had an esteemed collegiate career at Florida State, where he hit .463 with 26 homeruns last year. Posey has fantastic makeup and catching skills as well as great plate discipline and the ability to hit for a high average. There are some questions about Posey's power because Florida State's home park is extremely hitter friendly and it was hard to get a good read on hard hard he was really hitting the ball. Whether he can hit for power or not, Posey should be a top-10 catcher once he reaches his prime; he will probably start in A- with the ability to move quickly through the system thanks to his polish, he could be the Giants starting catcher by opening day, 2010.
#18 Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT - It's beginning to feel like McCutchen has been around forever but he's still only 22. After reaching AA at age 19, he has moved a little slower than expected through the upper levels of the minors. in 2008, McCutchen reached AAA and posted a respectable line of .283/.372/.398 with 9 homeruns and 34 stolen bases. McCutchen's low slugging pct. is minor cause for concern; another question mark is his base-running ability, while he stole 34 bases, he was caught a whopping 19 times, that number will need to drop significantly if he wants to have major league success. McCutchen will probably spend at least the first have of 2009 in AAA to refine his skills, he should be Pittsburgh's starting center fielder by opening day, 2010.
#17 Chris Tillman, P, BAL - The 20 year old had a breakout season at AA; in 136 innings TIllman posted a 3.16 ERA and 154 strikeouts. While he doesn't have electric stuff, usually working off of a low-90's fastball and solid curveball, Tillman succeeds off pitching smarts and location. He should open 2009 in AAA and we could see him in an Orioles uniform by September if all goes well.
#16 Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS - Anderson had a great 2008 season, splitting time between A+ and AA and posting a line of .317/.417/.517 with 18 homeruns and 80 RBI. The 21 year old also showed great plate discipline walking 75 times while striking out 107 times. At 6'4" and 215 pounds, Anderson probably won't get much bigger, but that's okay considering he already has fantastic power. He'll probably split time between AA and AAA in 2009 and has an outside chance of a September call-up; he should be Boston's full-time first baseman by mid-season, 2010 at the latest.
#15 Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX - The former South Carolina Gamecock slid a bit during the 2008 draft, going at #11 when he had the talent of a top-5 player. A lot of people have touted Smoak as "the surest bet to hit 40 homers" and it appears they could be right. There is no question that Smoak has an impact bat and the ability to hit for both power and a high average with solid plate discipline. He will probably start in A+ and could end up being a September call-up at the end of 2009.
#14 Neftali Feliz, P, TEX - A center-piece of the trade that brought Mark Teixeira to Atlanta, Feliz broke out in 2008, splitting time between A- and AA and posting a 2.69 ERA and striking out 153 batters in 127 innings. Feliz has an electric fastball that sits in the mid-90's and has fantastic movement, a plus power-curveball, and a developing changeup. Feliz could probably compete for a Rangers rotation spot in spring training this year, but since he only has pitched 45 innings above A ball, they will probably send him to AAA for the majority of the year, it's more likely that he could win a major league job in 2010.
#13 Brett Anderson, P, OAK - After coming over from Arizona in the Dan Haren trade, Anderson put it all together in 2008, posting a 3.69 ERA and striking out 118 batters in 105 innings. Most notably, the 20 year old lefty only walked 27 batters all season which was good for a K/BB ratio of about 5 to 1, which is elite. Anderson has a legitimate chance to to make the A's rotation out of spring training and at worst should be starting by the end of the season.
#12 Jason Heyward, OF, ATL - Heyward had a strong season as a 19 year old in A- last year, posting a line of .323/.388/.483 with homeruns and 15 stolen bases in 449 at-bats. He also has strong plate discipline walking 49 times while striking out 74 times. In his prime, Heyward should be a middle of the order hitter who can also steal 10+ bases and hit for both average and power. He will probably split 2009 between A+ and AA, but is still about a year away from making any sort of contribution at the big league level.
#11 Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA - In terms of talent, he could make a strong case for #1, but realistically, Maybin strikes out too much to post elite offensive numbers. In 2008, Maybin posted a sort of bittersweet season at AA, posting a line of .277/.375/.456 with 13 homeruns and 21 stolen bases, but striking out a whopping 124 times in only 390 at-bats. Maybin actually took 60 walks last year, and if he can be a little less aggressive, the 21 year old could be a devastating power/speed combination for years to come. He will probably make the team out of spring training or shortly thereafter but a half-season at AAA to develop his plate discipline a little more certainly wouldn't hurt.
#10 - Tommy Hanson, P, ATL - Hanson has four above-average or better pitches, all of which he can throw for strikes. Last year he broke out posting a 2.41 ERA striking out 163 batters in 138 innings split between A+ and AA. The 22 year old has a mid-90's fastball, a 12-6 curve, and a power slider. Hanson should make the Braves rotation out of spring training and should eventually develop into an ace.
Tune in next Saturday, 3/6, for #9-1
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
Saturday, February 28, 2009
2009 Preview: Oakland Athletics
2008 was not a bad year for the Oakland Athletics. The team consisted of a majority of young players, so it was a year of growth throughout the team. They did not have a superstar on the team to lead on the field, so they were pretty average at all phases of the game. One nice story from the Athletics last year was the first half play of Justin Duchscherer. Known to be injured a lot, Duchsherer was finally healthy and he won 10 games in the first half of the season and was named to the All-Star Team. The nice story was ruined when he went down with injury, again, but it was nice to see him healthy and perform well in the first half. So this off-season Billy Beane wanted change up his team and improve on their last year's record of 75-86.
Projected Lineup:
C - Kurt Suzuki
1B - Jason Giambi
2B - Mark Ellis
SS - Bobby Crosby
3B - Eric Chavez
LF - Matt Holliday
CF - Ryan Sweeney
RF - Travis Buck
DH - Jack Cust
Project Rotation:
#1 - Justin Duchscherer
#2 - Dana Eveland
#3 - Sean Gallagher
#4 - Gio Gonzalez
#5 - Dallas Braden
Closer - Joey Devine
Position Battles:
Closer - This is the only major position battle for the Athletics this year and it is between two men, Brad Ziegler and Joey Devine. Both are very good and very qualified, which will make this battle a very good one to watch this spring.
2009 Outlook:
With the addition of Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi, the Athletics definitely improved and I think passed the Texas Rangers in the process. The offense should be the anchor of the team due to the bats of Holliday, Giambi, Cust, and Chavez (if he can stay healthy). The pitching is the weaker part of the team, but it is still not bad. If Duchscherer can stay healthy, he is a very good number one starter. The rest of the rotation really needs to step up if they want to make a serious playoff run this year.
The Athletics have two excellent pitching prospects in Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, who probably will not make the team out of spring training, but will most likely come up at some point in the second half. They could be like David Price (last year) and Joba Chamberlain (two years ago), where they get called up late in the season and make a real impact on the team. I am sure that is something that Oakland would love to see.
Projected Finish: 2nd Place, AL West
Projected Lineup:
C - Kurt Suzuki
1B - Jason Giambi
2B - Mark Ellis
SS - Bobby Crosby
3B - Eric Chavez
LF - Matt Holliday
CF - Ryan Sweeney
RF - Travis Buck
DH - Jack Cust
Project Rotation:
#1 - Justin Duchscherer
#2 - Dana Eveland
#3 - Sean Gallagher
#4 - Gio Gonzalez
#5 - Dallas Braden
Closer - Joey Devine
Position Battles:
Closer - This is the only major position battle for the Athletics this year and it is between two men, Brad Ziegler and Joey Devine. Both are very good and very qualified, which will make this battle a very good one to watch this spring.
2009 Outlook:
With the addition of Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi, the Athletics definitely improved and I think passed the Texas Rangers in the process. The offense should be the anchor of the team due to the bats of Holliday, Giambi, Cust, and Chavez (if he can stay healthy). The pitching is the weaker part of the team, but it is still not bad. If Duchscherer can stay healthy, he is a very good number one starter. The rest of the rotation really needs to step up if they want to make a serious playoff run this year.
The Athletics have two excellent pitching prospects in Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, who probably will not make the team out of spring training, but will most likely come up at some point in the second half. They could be like David Price (last year) and Joba Chamberlain (two years ago), where they get called up late in the season and make a real impact on the team. I am sure that is something that Oakland would love to see.
Projected Finish: 2nd Place, AL West
Friday, February 27, 2009
2009 Preview: San Francisco Giants
The Giants suffered a bit of a hangover last year after all of the commotion that followed Barry Bonds and the all-time homerun record in 2007. In 2008, the Bonds-less Giants had an overall disappointing season which can be attributed to their lack of impact bats, now that the homerun king is gone. Last year did have it's bright spots though, Tim Lincecum won the NL Cy Young award and established himself as one of the NL's top pitchers despite being just 24 years old.
Projected Lineup:
C - Bengie Molina
1B - Travis Ishikawa
2B - Emmanuel Burris
SS - Edgar Renteria
3B - Pablo Sandovial
LF - Fred Lewis
CF - Aaron Rowand
RF - Randy Winn
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Tim Lincecum
#2 - Matt Cain
#3 - Randy Johnson
#4 - Jonathan Sanchez
#5 - Barry Zito
Closer - Brian Wilson
Position Battles:
2B - Really the only position up for grabs in spring training; right now Burris is the front runner for the starting job, but Kevin Frandson or Eugenio Velez could win some playing time with steady play in spring training or if Burris falters.
2009 Outlook: The Giants had a fantastic off-season, signing veteran shortstop Edgar Rentaria, future hall-of-famer Randy Johnson, and star set-up man Jeremy Affeldt to help sure up their bullpen. Both Pablo Sandovial and Travis Ishikawa should produce solid numbers from the corner infield positions and should be immediate steps up from Rich Aurellia and Jose Castillo who occupied first and third base respectively in 2008.
With the added offensive talent, and the extremely underrated pitching staff the Giants could be poised to make a run at the playoffs in 2008, though with the lack of a true impact bat in the lineup it seems like 2010 is more reasonable.
Projected Finish: 3rd Place, NL West
Projected Lineup:
C - Bengie Molina
1B - Travis Ishikawa
2B - Emmanuel Burris
SS - Edgar Renteria
3B - Pablo Sandovial
LF - Fred Lewis
CF - Aaron Rowand
RF - Randy Winn
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Tim Lincecum
#2 - Matt Cain
#3 - Randy Johnson
#4 - Jonathan Sanchez
#5 - Barry Zito
Closer - Brian Wilson
Position Battles:
2B - Really the only position up for grabs in spring training; right now Burris is the front runner for the starting job, but Kevin Frandson or Eugenio Velez could win some playing time with steady play in spring training or if Burris falters.
2009 Outlook: The Giants had a fantastic off-season, signing veteran shortstop Edgar Rentaria, future hall-of-famer Randy Johnson, and star set-up man Jeremy Affeldt to help sure up their bullpen. Both Pablo Sandovial and Travis Ishikawa should produce solid numbers from the corner infield positions and should be immediate steps up from Rich Aurellia and Jose Castillo who occupied first and third base respectively in 2008.
With the added offensive talent, and the extremely underrated pitching staff the Giants could be poised to make a run at the playoffs in 2008, though with the lack of a true impact bat in the lineup it seems like 2010 is more reasonable.
Projected Finish: 3rd Place, NL West
Thursday, February 26, 2009
2009 Preview: Texas Rangers
2008 was a successful year for the Texas Rangers. Josh Hamilton dazzled, Ian Kinsler amazed, and Chris Davis emerged. They finished second in the division and took a giant leap toward becoming a contending team. The team should be happy with how the season went, even though they finished 79 – 83.
Projected Lineup:
C – Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B – Chris Davis
2B – Ian Kinsler
SS – Elvis Andrus
3B – Michael Young
LF – David Murhpy
CF – Josh Hamilton
RF – Nelson Cruz
DH – Hank Blalock
Projected Rotation:
#1 – Kevin Millwood
#2 – Vicente Padilla
#3 – Matt Harrison
#4 – Brandon McCarthy
#5 – Jason Jennings
Closer – Frank Francisco
Position Battles:
C – If Jarrod Saltalamacchia does not perform well; the Rangers have two more catchers behind him that will step in for him. I believe that the Rangers won’t hesitate to do so because Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez are solid catchers. For now I believe Salty has the job and he should keep it for the season because he has some real talent.
LF/RF – This is not a real big position battle, but other players (Marlon Byrd, Brandon Boggs, Andruw Jones, and maybe even newly acquired prospect Greg Golson) might be switching into these spots throughout the season. For the most part it should be pretty consistent.
SS/3B – If Elvis Andrus is not playing well and is not ready for the majors then Michael Young will move back to the SS spot and Travis Metcalf will probably move to 3B. This is not a real position battle either, it is just a certain scenario that could happen which would move some players around.
2009 Outlook:
The Rangers have an unbelievable offense and they will probably rank very high in most of the hitting categories. Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, and Chris Davis should have really big years and anchor the offense. The problem that I see with the team is their pitching. Kevin Millwood is their number one starter and yes he is a good pitcher, but he is not a number one starter anymore. They do not have an ace on the staff and that is going to really hurt them. I do not think they have enough pitching to make a real run at the playoffs this year, even though they should have a very potent offense.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
2009 Preview: Colorado Rockies
In 2007, Colorado pulled off an improbable 21 game win streak to catapult themselves into the playoffs and eventually the world series. With high expectations coming into the 2008 season, the fairly young Rockies team was expected to once again compete for a playoff spot; unfortunately injuries and faulty pitching held them back as they finished 74-88.
Projected Lineup:
C - Chris Iannetta
1B - Garett Atkins
2B - Clint Barmes
SS - Troy Tulowitzki
3B - Ian Stewart
LF - Carlos Gonzalez
CF - Ryan Spilborghs
RF - Brad Hawpe
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Aaron Cook
#2 - Ubaldo Jiminez
#3 - Jorge De La Rosa
#4 - Jason Marquis
#5 - Greg Smith
Closer - Huston Street
Position Battles:
LF/CF - Right now, all we are sure of is that Brad Hawpe will play in right field, after that, there are 6 players fighting for the remaining two outfield spots. The current front-runners are Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Spilborghs, who are trailed by Seth Smith, Matt Murton, prospect Dexter Fowler, and maybe even Ian Stewart in order to get his bat in the lineup.
2B - If Ian Stewart can handle second base defensively, he would clear up a lot of the Rockies problems. He has not shown the ability to hold down a prime defensive position in the past and there's little reason to believe he can now. Assuming Stewart can't handle it, Clint Barmes and Jeff Baker would be the next candidates for the job.
1B/3B - I combined these positions because they both have a lot to do with the health of Todd Helton. If Helton comes out of spring training healthy, he will hold down first base, which will keep Garret Atkins at third base and force Ian Stewart to play ethier second base or left field. If Helton is injured, Colorado can move Atkins to first and Stewart to third, which would probably be the best fit for the team.
#5 Starter - Once top prospect Franklin Morales, Jason Hirsh, and Greg Reynolds will all battle with the front-runner, Greg Smith in spring training; any one of these pitchers could realistically end up with the job.
2009 Outlook: Unfortunatly, the Rockies have been unable to part with long time franchise icon Todd Helton, who at this point in his career is only creating a log-jam at first base, which as you can see, has begun to affect the entire team. The Rockies are flooded with uncertainty right now as really only three position players (Tulowitzki, Hawpe, and Iannetta) don't have to wonder where they'll be playing in spring training.
With Jeff Francis needing shoulder surgery that will keep him out of action until September, Colorado's already thin rotation takes another hit. While their future is cloudy, the Rockies do possess a lot of talent and play in the weakest divison in baseball so a playoff run is not completely improbable , but it appears they will struggle in 2009 as the days of Matt Holiday and a healthy Todd Helton are now long gone.
Projected Finish: 4th place, NL West
Projected Lineup:
C - Chris Iannetta
1B - Garett Atkins
2B - Clint Barmes
SS - Troy Tulowitzki
3B - Ian Stewart
LF - Carlos Gonzalez
CF - Ryan Spilborghs
RF - Brad Hawpe
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Aaron Cook
#2 - Ubaldo Jiminez
#3 - Jorge De La Rosa
#4 - Jason Marquis
#5 - Greg Smith
Closer - Huston Street
Position Battles:
LF/CF - Right now, all we are sure of is that Brad Hawpe will play in right field, after that, there are 6 players fighting for the remaining two outfield spots. The current front-runners are Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Spilborghs, who are trailed by Seth Smith, Matt Murton, prospect Dexter Fowler, and maybe even Ian Stewart in order to get his bat in the lineup.
2B - If Ian Stewart can handle second base defensively, he would clear up a lot of the Rockies problems. He has not shown the ability to hold down a prime defensive position in the past and there's little reason to believe he can now. Assuming Stewart can't handle it, Clint Barmes and Jeff Baker would be the next candidates for the job.
1B/3B - I combined these positions because they both have a lot to do with the health of Todd Helton. If Helton comes out of spring training healthy, he will hold down first base, which will keep Garret Atkins at third base and force Ian Stewart to play ethier second base or left field. If Helton is injured, Colorado can move Atkins to first and Stewart to third, which would probably be the best fit for the team.
#5 Starter - Once top prospect Franklin Morales, Jason Hirsh, and Greg Reynolds will all battle with the front-runner, Greg Smith in spring training; any one of these pitchers could realistically end up with the job.
2009 Outlook: Unfortunatly, the Rockies have been unable to part with long time franchise icon Todd Helton, who at this point in his career is only creating a log-jam at first base, which as you can see, has begun to affect the entire team. The Rockies are flooded with uncertainty right now as really only three position players (Tulowitzki, Hawpe, and Iannetta) don't have to wonder where they'll be playing in spring training.
With Jeff Francis needing shoulder surgery that will keep him out of action until September, Colorado's already thin rotation takes another hit. While their future is cloudy, the Rockies do possess a lot of talent and play in the weakest divison in baseball so a playoff run is not completely improbable , but it appears they will struggle in 2009 as the days of Matt Holiday and a healthy Todd Helton are now long gone.
Projected Finish: 4th place, NL West
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
2009 Preview: Seattle Mariners
2007 was a good year for the Seattle Marines, but 2008 was not. Injuries and aging players really hurt the Mariners, which lead to their 61–101 record in 2008 (last in the AL West).
Projected Starters:
C – Kenji Johjima
1B – Chris Shelton
2B – Jose Lopez
SS - Yuniesky Betancourt
3B – Adrian Beltre
LF – Endy Chavez
CF - Franklin Gutierrez
RF – Ichiro Suzuki
DH – Ken Griffey Jr.
Projected Rotation:
#1 – Felix Hernandez
#2 – Erik Bedard
#3 – Brandon Marrow
#4 – Jarrod Washburn
#5 – Ryan Rowland-Smith
Closer – Mark Lowe
Position Battles:
C: Kenji Johjima is the starter for now, but Jeff Clement is a highly touted prospect that has great power potential. They should rotate throughout the year, but it is anyone’s spot to take.
LF/CF: The only safe player in the outfield for the Mariners is Ichiro, other than that no one in that outfield should slack. During the season the left and center field spots should be changing until somebody proves that they belong in the starter role.
Closer: Right now the closer spot is not decided and the Mariners will figure that out throughout spring training. It is a battle between Mark Lowe and Miguel Bautista really, but you never know who might step up.
Rotation: Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard are the only guaranteed starters in the rotation. Everyone else will have to compete in spring training for the last spots because it seems like no pitcher in the Mariners organization wants to be in the bullpen, so many players will be vying for those spots.
2009 Outlook: The Seattle Mariners added Ken Griffey Jr. in the off-season to kind of help with the offense, but everyone knows that he is unfortunately prone to injury and he has not been producing like he used to. Their offense just seems average besides Ichiro and Jose Lopez and I do not think they have enough firepower to get the job done. Pitching wise there are a lot of questions and holes in the rotation. Can Felix Hernandez stay healthy and dominate like everyone knows that he can? Which Erik Bedard is going to show up and can he stay healthy? Will the rest of the rotation step up? I think there are still too many problems with this team and the rest of the teams in their division either improved or are already too far ahead for the Mariners to catch up.
Projected Finish: 4th place, AL West.
Monday, February 23, 2009
2009 Preview: San Deigo Padres
With spring training now upon us, we have decided to roll out a team by team preview of the 2009 season; Clyde will be doing the American League, I will be doing the National League, Enjoy.
There is no question the Padres are in rebuilding mode, after they missed the 2007 play-offs by one game, San Diego fell to the NL basement in 2008 going 63-99 and finishing last in the division.
Projected Starters:
C - Nick Hundley
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - David Eckstein
SS - Luis Rodriguez
3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF - Chase Headley
CF - Jody Gerut
RF - Brian Giles
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Jake Peavy
#2 - Chris Young
#3 - Cha Seung Baek
#4 - Josh Geer
#5 - Wade LeBlanc
Closer - Heath Bell
Position Battles:
2B: Once hot prospect Matt Antonelli who had an awful year in AAA could still challenge for the staring second base role with a strong spring as there is not much standing in his way.
OF: Scott Hairston who started the 2008 season off with a bang could win a starting roll if any of San Deigo's outfielders fail to impress.
Rotation: San Deigo's #3-5 starters are fringe pitchers who could be replaced sometime throughout the year by Kevin Correia or prospect Will Inman.
2009 Outlook: The Padres lost Trevor Hoffman which will hurt their bullpen, and the back-end of their starting rotation lacks necessary depth. On offense, Adrian Gonzalez is really their only star, the rest of their infield is almost useless, however they do have a somewhat underrated crop of outfielders that could help complement their star first baseman and turn out to be one of the nice surprises in an otherwise dreary 2009. Bottom line: too many holes to fill in order to be competitive this year.
Projected Finish: 5th place, NL West.
There is no question the Padres are in rebuilding mode, after they missed the 2007 play-offs by one game, San Diego fell to the NL basement in 2008 going 63-99 and finishing last in the division.
Projected Starters:
C - Nick Hundley
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - David Eckstein
SS - Luis Rodriguez
3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF - Chase Headley
CF - Jody Gerut
RF - Brian Giles
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Jake Peavy
#2 - Chris Young
#3 - Cha Seung Baek
#4 - Josh Geer
#5 - Wade LeBlanc
Closer - Heath Bell
Position Battles:
2B: Once hot prospect Matt Antonelli who had an awful year in AAA could still challenge for the staring second base role with a strong spring as there is not much standing in his way.
OF: Scott Hairston who started the 2008 season off with a bang could win a starting roll if any of San Deigo's outfielders fail to impress.
Rotation: San Deigo's #3-5 starters are fringe pitchers who could be replaced sometime throughout the year by Kevin Correia or prospect Will Inman.
2009 Outlook: The Padres lost Trevor Hoffman which will hurt their bullpen, and the back-end of their starting rotation lacks necessary depth. On offense, Adrian Gonzalez is really their only star, the rest of their infield is almost useless, however they do have a somewhat underrated crop of outfielders that could help complement their star first baseman and turn out to be one of the nice surprises in an otherwise dreary 2009. Bottom line: too many holes to fill in order to be competitive this year.
Projected Finish: 5th place, NL West.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Top 100 Prospects: 29-20
#29 Jake McGee, P, TB - After starting off 2008 with a solid performance in AA, McGee injured his elbow in the second half and needed Tommy John Surgery; as a result he will be out for most of 2009 recovering. The 22 year old went 6-4 with a 3.94 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 77 innings at AA and had a shot to be a September call-up with the Rays. Assuming all goes well with his rehab, McGee will probably pitch in the Arizona Fall League in 2009 to help make up for lost time, he will probably open 2010 in AAA and could reach Tampa by mid-season.
#28 Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC - The #3 overall pick in the 2008 draft, Hosmer has an extremely advanced approach for hitting for a 19 year old. Unlike most high school hitters, Hosmer has excellent plate discipline to go along with his exceptional bat. His power is only average right now but he still has plenty of time to add muscle. Hosmer only got 11 at-bats at rookie league last year and will probably start there in 2009. He is extremely polished for his age and has a chance to move quickly through the system, look for him in a Royals uniform by 2012.
#27 Wade Davis, P, TB - Before Jake McGee's injury, he and Davis were practically identical; McGee was actually considered to have the edge because he was left handed and moved a little quicker through the system. Davis had a fantastic 2008 season, starting in AA where he went 9-6 with a 3.85 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 108 innings, he pitched at AAA during the second half of the season, going 4-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 53 innings. Davis should get a shot to crack the Rays rotation during spring training, at worst he should be up by mid-season.
#26 Tim Beckham, SS, TB - The 1st overall pick in the 2008 draft, Beckham struggled to transition from high school to pro ball, compiling a line of .243/297/.345 with 2 homeruns in 177 at-bats in rookie league. Obviously, it's way too early to write him off just because he had a bad start; in his prime, Beckham should hit around .300 with power and speed, and could be a dynamic lead-off man if he can get on base more. He will probably spend most of 2009 in rookie league, hopefully with better results, and could reach Tampa Bay by 2013.
#25 Jarrod Parker, P, ARI - A first round pick in the 2007 draft, Parker had a brilliant season at A-, going 12-5 with 117 strikeouts in 118 innings and only walking 33 batters. Parker's fastball sits in the mid-90's with good movement, he also has a plus curve and a solid slider which he can throw for strikes. He his currently 6'2, 175 pounds, so he may still be able to add velocity to his pitches; even if he doesn't, Parker should be a #1 starter who could make his major league debut as a September call-up in 2011.
#24 Tim Alderson, P, SF - Fun Fact: Of all of the high school pitchers taken in the 2007 draft, Alderson and Rick Porcello of the Tigers made their full season debuts at A+. Alderson dominated in the California league, the most hitter-friendly of all the minor leagues, at 19 years old, going 13-4 with a 2.79 ERA and 124 strikeouts and only 34 walks in 145 innings AS A 19 YEAR OLD! The 6'6" righty features a low-to-mid-90's fastball with decent life and a plus curveball which he commands excellently. Alderson should start 2009 in AA, and I wouldn't be surprised if he reaches the majors by mid-season, 2010.
#23 Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM - After signing out of the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old, Martinez has become one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory. Martinez reached AA in 2007 as a 19 year old and struggled against the older competition; in 2008 he repeated AA and put together a much stronger season, compiling a line of .284/.338/.429 with 8 homeruns in 385 at-bats. While his line doesn't seem overly impressive, we need to consider two factors, 1.) the Eastern League is murder on hitters 2.) Martinez played part of the year injured. There are a few red flags, Martinez has yet to play a full minor league season and is somewhat reluctant to talk a walk, striking out 73 times while walking only 27. The bottom line is Martinez can flat out hit, if he can stay healthy he will be a force to be reckoned with in the majors. look for him to spend most of 2009 in AAA and reach New York in September.
#22 Madison Bumgarner, P, SF - He and Alderson form a scary tandem of San Francisco pitching prospects and when you couple them with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez, the Giants could have a historic rotation in a few years. Bumgarner had a tremendous season at A- in 2008 going 15-3 with a 1.47 ERA, 154 strikeouts and only 21 walks 135 innings. The 19 year old lefty dominates with a mid 90's fastball that has great life which he can spot anywhere in the strike zone. His slider also has a chance to be a plus pitch but he almost never threw it in high school and needs to work on its consistency. If his secondary offerings continue to develop Bumgarner could blossom into an ace, if not he will be a light-out reliever. Bumgarner might start 2009 in AA, if so he could fight for a rotation spot in 2010.
#21 Matt LaPorta, 1B, CLE - the 23 year old was the talk of the town in the first half of the season hitting 20 homeruns and .288 in 366 at-bats at AA. A mid-season trade moved him to the Eastern League and he only hit .233 with 2 homeruns from that point forward. Nevertheless, a trade to an AL is probably the best thing for LaPorta, who happens to be an abysmal defender, as he can now be Cleveland's DH for the next 20 years. LaPorta could be up by mid-season.
#20 Dexter Fowler, OF, COL - Fowler successfully made the transition from athlete to baseball player during his breakout 2008 season. In 431 AA at-bats, Fowler compiled a line of .335/.431/.515 with 9 homeruns and 20 stolen bases. The 22 year old switch hitter finished off the season with a trip to Beijing for the Olympics and a September Call-up with Colorado, needless to say it was a busy year for him. Fowler showed great plate discipline striking out 89 times and walking 65 times. With Colorado's vacancy at center field, Fowler will get an opportunity to stick with the big league club in spring training and at worst, should be up by mid-season.
Tune in next Saturday, 2/28, for #19-10.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
#28 Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC - The #3 overall pick in the 2008 draft, Hosmer has an extremely advanced approach for hitting for a 19 year old. Unlike most high school hitters, Hosmer has excellent plate discipline to go along with his exceptional bat. His power is only average right now but he still has plenty of time to add muscle. Hosmer only got 11 at-bats at rookie league last year and will probably start there in 2009. He is extremely polished for his age and has a chance to move quickly through the system, look for him in a Royals uniform by 2012.
#27 Wade Davis, P, TB - Before Jake McGee's injury, he and Davis were practically identical; McGee was actually considered to have the edge because he was left handed and moved a little quicker through the system. Davis had a fantastic 2008 season, starting in AA where he went 9-6 with a 3.85 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 108 innings, he pitched at AAA during the second half of the season, going 4-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 53 innings. Davis should get a shot to crack the Rays rotation during spring training, at worst he should be up by mid-season.
#26 Tim Beckham, SS, TB - The 1st overall pick in the 2008 draft, Beckham struggled to transition from high school to pro ball, compiling a line of .243/297/.345 with 2 homeruns in 177 at-bats in rookie league. Obviously, it's way too early to write him off just because he had a bad start; in his prime, Beckham should hit around .300 with power and speed, and could be a dynamic lead-off man if he can get on base more. He will probably spend most of 2009 in rookie league, hopefully with better results, and could reach Tampa Bay by 2013.
#25 Jarrod Parker, P, ARI - A first round pick in the 2007 draft, Parker had a brilliant season at A-, going 12-5 with 117 strikeouts in 118 innings and only walking 33 batters. Parker's fastball sits in the mid-90's with good movement, he also has a plus curve and a solid slider which he can throw for strikes. He his currently 6'2, 175 pounds, so he may still be able to add velocity to his pitches; even if he doesn't, Parker should be a #1 starter who could make his major league debut as a September call-up in 2011.
#24 Tim Alderson, P, SF - Fun Fact: Of all of the high school pitchers taken in the 2007 draft, Alderson and Rick Porcello of the Tigers made their full season debuts at A+. Alderson dominated in the California league, the most hitter-friendly of all the minor leagues, at 19 years old, going 13-4 with a 2.79 ERA and 124 strikeouts and only 34 walks in 145 innings AS A 19 YEAR OLD! The 6'6" righty features a low-to-mid-90's fastball with decent life and a plus curveball which he commands excellently. Alderson should start 2009 in AA, and I wouldn't be surprised if he reaches the majors by mid-season, 2010.
#23 Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM - After signing out of the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old, Martinez has become one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory. Martinez reached AA in 2007 as a 19 year old and struggled against the older competition; in 2008 he repeated AA and put together a much stronger season, compiling a line of .284/.338/.429 with 8 homeruns in 385 at-bats. While his line doesn't seem overly impressive, we need to consider two factors, 1.) the Eastern League is murder on hitters 2.) Martinez played part of the year injured. There are a few red flags, Martinez has yet to play a full minor league season and is somewhat reluctant to talk a walk, striking out 73 times while walking only 27. The bottom line is Martinez can flat out hit, if he can stay healthy he will be a force to be reckoned with in the majors. look for him to spend most of 2009 in AAA and reach New York in September.
#22 Madison Bumgarner, P, SF - He and Alderson form a scary tandem of San Francisco pitching prospects and when you couple them with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez, the Giants could have a historic rotation in a few years. Bumgarner had a tremendous season at A- in 2008 going 15-3 with a 1.47 ERA, 154 strikeouts and only 21 walks 135 innings. The 19 year old lefty dominates with a mid 90's fastball that has great life which he can spot anywhere in the strike zone. His slider also has a chance to be a plus pitch but he almost never threw it in high school and needs to work on its consistency. If his secondary offerings continue to develop Bumgarner could blossom into an ace, if not he will be a light-out reliever. Bumgarner might start 2009 in AA, if so he could fight for a rotation spot in 2010.
#21 Matt LaPorta, 1B, CLE - the 23 year old was the talk of the town in the first half of the season hitting 20 homeruns and .288 in 366 at-bats at AA. A mid-season trade moved him to the Eastern League and he only hit .233 with 2 homeruns from that point forward. Nevertheless, a trade to an AL is probably the best thing for LaPorta, who happens to be an abysmal defender, as he can now be Cleveland's DH for the next 20 years. LaPorta could be up by mid-season.
#20 Dexter Fowler, OF, COL - Fowler successfully made the transition from athlete to baseball player during his breakout 2008 season. In 431 AA at-bats, Fowler compiled a line of .335/.431/.515 with 9 homeruns and 20 stolen bases. The 22 year old switch hitter finished off the season with a trip to Beijing for the Olympics and a September Call-up with Colorado, needless to say it was a busy year for him. Fowler showed great plate discipline striking out 89 times and walking 65 times. With Colorado's vacancy at center field, Fowler will get an opportunity to stick with the big league club in spring training and at worst, should be up by mid-season.
Tune in next Saturday, 2/28, for #19-10.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Top 100 Prospects: 39-30
#39 Brian Matusz, P, BAL - The lefty out of San Diego University was taken in the first round of the 2008 draft. While he lacks a true plus pitch, Matusz does have four above-average pitches that he can throw with excellent command. He was arguably the best college pitcher in 2008 placing near the top in every major statistical college category. He will probably make his pro debut at A+ and has a chance, due to his polish, to move quickly through Baltimore's system, a 2009 September call-up is not out of the question.
#38 Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX - THe speedy 19 year old held his own in a full season at AA in 2008, compiling a line of .295/.350/.367 with 4 homeruns and 54 stolen bases in 482 at-bats. His plate discipline was definitely sub-par but not horrible (38BB/91K), which is to be expected from someone who is so young for their level. As the .367 SLG shows, Andrus will probably never have much power, but his speed and contact ability along with his solid defense make him a solid bet to be a contributor at the major-league level. Texas' President, Nolan Ryan, said Andrus would have a chance to compete for the big league shortstop job in the spring, if he does not make the team out of spring training, he should be up by mid-season.
#37 Jose Tabata, OF, PIT - In the lower levels of the minor leagues, Tabata showed fantastic power potential, however after 2007 off-season wrist surgery, that power may be on hold for the time being. As a 19 year old in AA, Tabata .272/.339/.368 with 6 homeruns and 18 stolen bases in the offense-depressed Eastern League. Hitters usually find their power again in the second year after wrist surgery, so it's not unlikely that Tabata could flash his former 30+ homerun potential again. He has a chance to start the year in AAA, but a half-season at AA would definitely do him some good, look for him in a Pirates uniform by September, 2009.
#36 Josh VItters, 3B, CHC - The 3rd overall pick in the 2007 draft struggled in A- during the first month of 2008 compiling a line of .322/.357/.495. Even though most of his counterparts had successful seasons at full-season ball, Vitters should still be considered an elite hitting prospect with 30 homerun potential. He will probably split 2009 between A- and A+, though there's a chance he could see some time at AA if he has success. He could be the Cubs starting third-baseman by early 2011.
#35 Alcedes Escobar, SS, MIL - The 21 year old broke out in 2008, proving that he is worthy of elite prospect status. At AA, Escobar posted a line of .328/.363/.434 with 8 homeruns an 34 stolen bases. While he is a fantastic hitter, Escobar is even better at defense, his outstanding play a shortstop has given him a chance to win Milwaukee's starting job in spring training. If all goes well, Escobar could be a very special major leaguer.
#34 Angel Villalona, 1B, SF - As a 17 year old in A-, Villalona proved that he could hold his own in full-season ball. In 464 at-bats, Villalona posted a line of .263/.312/.435 with 17 homeruns and 64 RBI. Villalona's plate discipline is still extremely raw, he only walked 18 times last year, while striking out 118 times. He will have to improve upon those numbers dramatically if he wants any chance of getting to the big leagues. Villalona also needs to watch his weight, he has already played his way off of third base, and if he doesn't stay in shape, even first base could be a challenge. Ultimately, VIllalona has a chance to become a very special hitter, but he still has a long way to go, don''t expect to see him in the majors before late 2012.
#33 Jesus Montero, C, NYY - the 18 year old had a fantastic season at A- in 2008; In 525 at-bats, Montero compiled a line of .325/.376/.491 with 18 homeruns and 87 RBI. Montero could still improve his plate discipline, but that will come in time. Scouts have rated Montero's power an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale; if he can make enough contact, he should have a long, productive career. His defense is horrible, but with the Yankees signing Mark Texieria to a long-term deal, Montero should get every opportunity to succeed as a catcher. Look for him in pin-stripes by late 2011.
#32 Gorden Beckham, SS, CHW - The 2008 college homerun champ was the Whitesox 1st round pick in 2008. While his defense is just average, Beckham's bat, especially for a shortstop will make him extremely valuable in the long run. He should start 2009 in either A- or A+ and could have a chance to fight for the starting shortstop job in spring training of 2010.
#31 Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN - The top first baseman in the 2008 draft combines fantastic plate discipline with tremendous power and has a chance to be an absolute offensive monster when he reaches the big leagues. Alonso should start 2009 at A- and has a chance to move quickly through the system, He could be the Reds starting first baseman by opening day, 2010.
#30 Brett Wallace, 3B, STL - With Troy Glaus' injury, Wallace actually has a chance to be St. Louis' opening day third baseman. He had arguably the best bat in the 2008 draft, and is close to being a major league ready hitter. Wallace's defense at third base is poor but his bat can more than make up for it; he should reach the majors sometime in 2009.
Tune in again next Saturday, 2/21, for # 29-20.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
#38 Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX - THe speedy 19 year old held his own in a full season at AA in 2008, compiling a line of .295/.350/.367 with 4 homeruns and 54 stolen bases in 482 at-bats. His plate discipline was definitely sub-par but not horrible (38BB/91K), which is to be expected from someone who is so young for their level. As the .367 SLG shows, Andrus will probably never have much power, but his speed and contact ability along with his solid defense make him a solid bet to be a contributor at the major-league level. Texas' President, Nolan Ryan, said Andrus would have a chance to compete for the big league shortstop job in the spring, if he does not make the team out of spring training, he should be up by mid-season.
#37 Jose Tabata, OF, PIT - In the lower levels of the minor leagues, Tabata showed fantastic power potential, however after 2007 off-season wrist surgery, that power may be on hold for the time being. As a 19 year old in AA, Tabata .272/.339/.368 with 6 homeruns and 18 stolen bases in the offense-depressed Eastern League. Hitters usually find their power again in the second year after wrist surgery, so it's not unlikely that Tabata could flash his former 30+ homerun potential again. He has a chance to start the year in AAA, but a half-season at AA would definitely do him some good, look for him in a Pirates uniform by September, 2009.
#36 Josh VItters, 3B, CHC - The 3rd overall pick in the 2007 draft struggled in A- during the first month of 2008 compiling a line of .322/.357/.495. Even though most of his counterparts had successful seasons at full-season ball, Vitters should still be considered an elite hitting prospect with 30 homerun potential. He will probably split 2009 between A- and A+, though there's a chance he could see some time at AA if he has success. He could be the Cubs starting third-baseman by early 2011.
#35 Alcedes Escobar, SS, MIL - The 21 year old broke out in 2008, proving that he is worthy of elite prospect status. At AA, Escobar posted a line of .328/.363/.434 with 8 homeruns an 34 stolen bases. While he is a fantastic hitter, Escobar is even better at defense, his outstanding play a shortstop has given him a chance to win Milwaukee's starting job in spring training. If all goes well, Escobar could be a very special major leaguer.
#34 Angel Villalona, 1B, SF - As a 17 year old in A-, Villalona proved that he could hold his own in full-season ball. In 464 at-bats, Villalona posted a line of .263/.312/.435 with 17 homeruns and 64 RBI. Villalona's plate discipline is still extremely raw, he only walked 18 times last year, while striking out 118 times. He will have to improve upon those numbers dramatically if he wants any chance of getting to the big leagues. Villalona also needs to watch his weight, he has already played his way off of third base, and if he doesn't stay in shape, even first base could be a challenge. Ultimately, VIllalona has a chance to become a very special hitter, but he still has a long way to go, don''t expect to see him in the majors before late 2012.
#33 Jesus Montero, C, NYY - the 18 year old had a fantastic season at A- in 2008; In 525 at-bats, Montero compiled a line of .325/.376/.491 with 18 homeruns and 87 RBI. Montero could still improve his plate discipline, but that will come in time. Scouts have rated Montero's power an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale; if he can make enough contact, he should have a long, productive career. His defense is horrible, but with the Yankees signing Mark Texieria to a long-term deal, Montero should get every opportunity to succeed as a catcher. Look for him in pin-stripes by late 2011.
#32 Gorden Beckham, SS, CHW - The 2008 college homerun champ was the Whitesox 1st round pick in 2008. While his defense is just average, Beckham's bat, especially for a shortstop will make him extremely valuable in the long run. He should start 2009 in either A- or A+ and could have a chance to fight for the starting shortstop job in spring training of 2010.
#31 Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN - The top first baseman in the 2008 draft combines fantastic plate discipline with tremendous power and has a chance to be an absolute offensive monster when he reaches the big leagues. Alonso should start 2009 at A- and has a chance to move quickly through the system, He could be the Reds starting first baseman by opening day, 2010.
#30 Brett Wallace, 3B, STL - With Troy Glaus' injury, Wallace actually has a chance to be St. Louis' opening day third baseman. He had arguably the best bat in the 2008 draft, and is close to being a major league ready hitter. Wallace's defense at third base is poor but his bat can more than make up for it; he should reach the majors sometime in 2009.
Tune in again next Saturday, 2/21, for # 29-20.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
Friday, February 13, 2009
Contender to Pretender in One Off-Season
Last year the Milwaukee Brewers won the Wild Card, keeping the New York Mets out of the playoffs. A big reason for their success was the pitching of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. This off-season both players were free agents and if the Brewers were able to get them both or at least one of them, then they would still be in contention for the Division or Wild Card next year. The only problem is... they did not get either!
CC Sabathia signed mega deal with the New York Yankees (7 years, $161 million). With the Brewers last year Sabathia went 11- 2, had a 1.65 ERA, had a 1.003 WHIP, and had 7 complete games. Simply put: CC Sabathia was superb with the Brewers. Now the Brewers do not have that superstar pitcher on their team. That was a huge loss for Milwaukee, but not a surprise in the very least that he did not re-sign them.
Ben Sheets still could re-sign with the Brewers, but the chances of that happening are very slim. Sheets has been known as an injury prone pitcher throughout his career, but the first half of last year Ben Sheets was healthy and dominating. He went 10 - 3, with a 2.83 ERA, and 3 complete games. Not surprisingly, Sheets went down with an elbow injury in the second half of the year which hindered his second half and is keeping Sheets from signing with the Brewers or another team in the off-season. When healthy, Ben Sheets is nothing short of dominant, and his presence and production will certainly be missed by the Brewers. Last week, news came out that Sheet's elbow injury is a lot worse than originally presumed, if a team does sign him, it will most likely be after the all-star break when he is expected to be fully healthy.
Overall, Ben Sheets' excellent first half and CC Sabathia's unbelievable second half, coupled with Milwaukee's solid offense anchored by Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder helped lead them to their first playoff appearance since 1982. This Brewers team will not be the same as last year and probably won't be in contention for a playoff spot due to the lack reliable of pitching that the team possess.
The Brewers did sign Trevor Hoffman, who should help the awful bullpen they have, but he is old and his skills have been declining over the last couple years. Also, he was pitching in Petco Park last year, by far the most extreme pitcher's park in the league, this year he will be pitching in a more hitter friendly park, which should definitely have a negative affect him.
Milwaukee's rotation does have some young talent in Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra who are good pitchers, but not aces. Gallardo is another pitcher who cannot stay healthy and if he is able to play a full season, then he can help the team in a big way, but that does not seem likely. Parra has been the third or fourth starter as of late and has been doing a good job, but can he take a more important role on that staff? We will have to see. A lot of players will need to step up next year for the Brewers to have any chance at playing in October.
CC Sabathia signed mega deal with the New York Yankees (7 years, $161 million). With the Brewers last year Sabathia went 11- 2, had a 1.65 ERA, had a 1.003 WHIP, and had 7 complete games. Simply put: CC Sabathia was superb with the Brewers. Now the Brewers do not have that superstar pitcher on their team. That was a huge loss for Milwaukee, but not a surprise in the very least that he did not re-sign them.
Ben Sheets still could re-sign with the Brewers, but the chances of that happening are very slim. Sheets has been known as an injury prone pitcher throughout his career, but the first half of last year Ben Sheets was healthy and dominating. He went 10 - 3, with a 2.83 ERA, and 3 complete games. Not surprisingly, Sheets went down with an elbow injury in the second half of the year which hindered his second half and is keeping Sheets from signing with the Brewers or another team in the off-season. When healthy, Ben Sheets is nothing short of dominant, and his presence and production will certainly be missed by the Brewers. Last week, news came out that Sheet's elbow injury is a lot worse than originally presumed, if a team does sign him, it will most likely be after the all-star break when he is expected to be fully healthy.
Overall, Ben Sheets' excellent first half and CC Sabathia's unbelievable second half, coupled with Milwaukee's solid offense anchored by Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder helped lead them to their first playoff appearance since 1982. This Brewers team will not be the same as last year and probably won't be in contention for a playoff spot due to the lack reliable of pitching that the team possess.
The Brewers did sign Trevor Hoffman, who should help the awful bullpen they have, but he is old and his skills have been declining over the last couple years. Also, he was pitching in Petco Park last year, by far the most extreme pitcher's park in the league, this year he will be pitching in a more hitter friendly park, which should definitely have a negative affect him.
Milwaukee's rotation does have some young talent in Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra who are good pitchers, but not aces. Gallardo is another pitcher who cannot stay healthy and if he is able to play a full season, then he can help the team in a big way, but that does not seem likely. Parra has been the third or fourth starter as of late and has been doing a good job, but can he take a more important role on that staff? We will have to see. A lot of players will need to step up next year for the Brewers to have any chance at playing in October.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Good Offense, Terrible Pitching, Impossible Division
The Baltimore Orioles are in a tight predicament. They have awful pitching and they are in one of the toughest divisions in all of baseball (AL East). In the off-season their pitching has not improved and their division has only gotten harder, but their offense still remains the bright spot of that sad team.
Brian Roberts is a top 10 second basemen in the league, who hits close to .300, steals bases, and scores runs.
Aubrey Huff hit .304 last year with 32 home runs and 108 RBIs.
Nick Markakis is a young player with a world of talent. He can hit for some power, hit for average, and can score runs.
Melvin Mora may be old, but last year he hit 23 home runs and had 104 RBIs.
Matt Wieters should be called up at some point this year and may even be the opening day starter. He is a switch hitting catcher that can hit for power and average.
Adam Jones is 23 and improving each year and Luke Scott hit 23 home runs last year.
In the off-season the Baltimore Orioles added free-agent Ty Wiggington, who can play many positions and is a solid player. He has never really been given the opportunity to play a full season, so we will have to see if he gets that opportunity with Baltimore.
All together the Orioles were 11th in the entire league in runs scored (782), 13th in total home runs (172), 11th in RBIs (750), and had the 11th best batting average (.267). So in the major hitting categories they ranked in the top half of the entire league. Not bad for a team that had the 5th worst record in the league.
Yes the team is bad. Yes the team has major holes to fill. Yes the team will probably finish in last in the division (again). But they do have a nice core of hitters and we can only wish them the best of luck and not too much pain.
Brian Roberts is a top 10 second basemen in the league, who hits close to .300, steals bases, and scores runs.
Aubrey Huff hit .304 last year with 32 home runs and 108 RBIs.
Nick Markakis is a young player with a world of talent. He can hit for some power, hit for average, and can score runs.
Melvin Mora may be old, but last year he hit 23 home runs and had 104 RBIs.
Matt Wieters should be called up at some point this year and may even be the opening day starter. He is a switch hitting catcher that can hit for power and average.
Adam Jones is 23 and improving each year and Luke Scott hit 23 home runs last year.
In the off-season the Baltimore Orioles added free-agent Ty Wiggington, who can play many positions and is a solid player. He has never really been given the opportunity to play a full season, so we will have to see if he gets that opportunity with Baltimore.
All together the Orioles were 11th in the entire league in runs scored (782), 13th in total home runs (172), 11th in RBIs (750), and had the 11th best batting average (.267). So in the major hitting categories they ranked in the top half of the entire league. Not bad for a team that had the 5th worst record in the league.
Yes the team is bad. Yes the team has major holes to fill. Yes the team will probably finish in last in the division (again). But they do have a nice core of hitters and we can only wish them the best of luck and not too much pain.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Top 100 Prospects: 49-40
Sorry, I posted it a few days late. I promise the next one will be on time.
#49 Jeremy Jeffress, P, MIL - After getting suspended for 50 games at the start of the 2008 season for recreational drug use, it's definitely safe to say Jeffress is risky. If he didn't have drug problems the 21 year old would probably rank in the top-10 in terms of pure talent. Jeffress' fastball sits in the upper 90's with relative ease, and he also compliments his heat with a solid curveball and change up. If his secondary pitches don't improve, his fastball could make him a fantastic reliever. If all goes well, Jeffress could be a September call-up this year.
#48 Jhoulys Chacin, P, COL - The the 21 year old had a fantastic season in 2008, split between A- and A+. Chacin won a minor league leading 18 games and posted a sparkling 2.03 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. There really isn't anything too negative to say about Chacin, who posted a 64% groundball rate and struck out almost a batter per inning. The only concerns are that he was a little old for his level in 2008 and when he gets called up, Chacin will have to pitch in Colorado, which will probably kill his numbers. Chacin will probably spend most of 2008 at AA, however if he has another outstanding year the righty could compete for a rotation spot with the Rockies in 2010.
#47 Adrian Cardenas, 2B, OAK - The 21 year old is the highest ranked 2B on our top-100 list, which due to the scarcity of middle infielders who can hit, makes him quite valuable. In 2008, split between A+ and AA, Cardenas complied a line of .297/.366/.400 while hitting 5 homeruns and stealing 17 bases in 417 at-bats. Cardenas probably won't hit for much power, but his encouraging mix of speed and contact still make him valuable. He could be Oakland's starting second baseman by late-2009.
#46 Micheal Inoa, P, OAK - The 6'7 righty was the top international amateur prospect in 2008, signing with the A's for $4.25 million last July. Inoa is only 16 and hasn't yet thrown a professional pitch, but he does possess an enticing three pitch mix. His fastball sits in the low-90's with room for improvement as he fills out; Inoa's changeup and curveball are still developing, but that's to be expected for someone who could be a sophomore in high school. He'll probably spend most of 2009 in extended spring training and then rookie league; He shouldn't be in the majors before 2013.
#45 Lou Marson, C, PHI - Marson made solid strides in 2008, most notably with his plate discipline, increasing his walk rate to a whopping 17.2%, up from 11.4% in 2007. At AA in 2008, the 22 year old posted a line of .314/.433/.416 with 5 homeruns in 322 at-bats. Unfortunately, Marson struggles to hit flyballs, only posting 28% flyball rate last year; also concerning was his BABIP, which was an abnormally high .389, that number will almost certainly go down in the future. Marson has the makings of an impressive defensive catcher with solid offensive skills, if he can hit less groundballs he should be very good. There is a sizable chance that Marson could win the starting catcher job with the Phillies from Carlos Ruiz in spring training; even if he doesn't he should see regular playing time by mid-season.
#44 Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA - I already wrote a separate article on Morrison and Mike Stanton a few weeks ago, the entire thing can be found here. "Though he doesn't have the same kind of power as Stanton, Logan Morrison should be a star in his own right. Morrison hit .332 at A+ last year while striking out 80 times and walking 57 times in 488 at-bats last year in the offense-depressed Florida State League. The first baseman showed decent pop, hitting 13 homeruns and posting a .494 slugging percentage. Florida's first base position is wide open with the departure of Mike Jacobs. Morrison, who should start the season in AA has a chance to be a September call up in 2009 and a starter in 2010."
#43 Jordan Schafer, OF, ATL - Before the 2008 season started, Schafer tested positive for HGH and was suspended 50 games. He started slowly when he returned to AA, and there were concerns that he would lose some of his power; surprisingly his power numbers improved thanks to a fantastic second half of the season. His Isolated power (SLG%-AVG) jumped from .183 in A+, to .202 in AA; Schafer also increased his walk rate improving it to 14.8% from 8.3% in 2007. While his .263/.378/.471 line at AA doesn't look too impressive, the 22 year old greatly improved his underlying skills which should show next year when he gets to play a full season. Schafer will compete for an outfield job in spring training, but he'll probably spend at least the first quarter of 2009 in AAA.
#42 Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL - After a breakout year at AA, where he posted a line of .329/.396/.528 with 19 homeruns in 2008, and a trip to the Futures Game, Gamel ended his fantastic season with a September call-up. While he improved dramatically in 2008, Gamel still has a lot he needs to work on, most notably, his defense at third base is atrocious and he will probably have to move to an outfield corner, the 23 year old could also improve his plate discipline, he struck out 110 times while only walking 55 times. Gamel's BABIP was also through the roof at AA at a whopping .393, even if this number regresses to .350 (still extremely high) his batting average would end up around .280. While he appears to be the next great third baseman, Gamel still has a lot to work on before he can be successful in the majors, he could be up by mid-season.
#41 Phillippe Aumont, P, SEA - The 20 year old had a solid first professional season, going 4-4 with a 2.75 ERA in 55 innings at A- before getting hurt. The 6'7 righty has an incredible sinking fastball that sits in the low 90's, when he straightens it out, he can reach the mid to upper-90's-- this approach allows Aumont to rack up both groundballs and strikeouts. Aumont didn't start pitching until he was 14 so he is still quite raw and struggles with his control, there are also concerns about his elbow injury which could require Tommy John Surgery. Nevertheless, Aumont's upside is incredible, if he can develop secondary offerings, he could be an ace, he could also be Mark Prior, but right now he appears to be worth the risk. Assuming all goes well, the large Canadian should reach Seattle around mid-2011.
#40 Mike Stanton, OF, FLA - As I mentioned earlier with Morrison, I wrote a separate article about these two which can be found here. "Stanton was picked in the 2nd round or the 2007 draft. He possesses serious power which he showed off by hitting 39 homeruns at A- as a 19 year old. While he hit .293, Stanton struck out 153 times in 468 at-bats and will need to cut that number down as he ascends through the minors. The outfielder plays below average defense, however that shouldn't hinder him from reaching the majors. If he can improve his plate discipline, Stanton should be able to move quickly through the minors and become star in Florida's outfield for years to come."
Tune in again next Saturday, February 14th for #39-30.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
#49 Jeremy Jeffress, P, MIL - After getting suspended for 50 games at the start of the 2008 season for recreational drug use, it's definitely safe to say Jeffress is risky. If he didn't have drug problems the 21 year old would probably rank in the top-10 in terms of pure talent. Jeffress' fastball sits in the upper 90's with relative ease, and he also compliments his heat with a solid curveball and change up. If his secondary pitches don't improve, his fastball could make him a fantastic reliever. If all goes well, Jeffress could be a September call-up this year.
#48 Jhoulys Chacin, P, COL - The the 21 year old had a fantastic season in 2008, split between A- and A+. Chacin won a minor league leading 18 games and posted a sparkling 2.03 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. There really isn't anything too negative to say about Chacin, who posted a 64% groundball rate and struck out almost a batter per inning. The only concerns are that he was a little old for his level in 2008 and when he gets called up, Chacin will have to pitch in Colorado, which will probably kill his numbers. Chacin will probably spend most of 2008 at AA, however if he has another outstanding year the righty could compete for a rotation spot with the Rockies in 2010.
#47 Adrian Cardenas, 2B, OAK - The 21 year old is the highest ranked 2B on our top-100 list, which due to the scarcity of middle infielders who can hit, makes him quite valuable. In 2008, split between A+ and AA, Cardenas complied a line of .297/.366/.400 while hitting 5 homeruns and stealing 17 bases in 417 at-bats. Cardenas probably won't hit for much power, but his encouraging mix of speed and contact still make him valuable. He could be Oakland's starting second baseman by late-2009.
#46 Micheal Inoa, P, OAK - The 6'7 righty was the top international amateur prospect in 2008, signing with the A's for $4.25 million last July. Inoa is only 16 and hasn't yet thrown a professional pitch, but he does possess an enticing three pitch mix. His fastball sits in the low-90's with room for improvement as he fills out; Inoa's changeup and curveball are still developing, but that's to be expected for someone who could be a sophomore in high school. He'll probably spend most of 2009 in extended spring training and then rookie league; He shouldn't be in the majors before 2013.
#45 Lou Marson, C, PHI - Marson made solid strides in 2008, most notably with his plate discipline, increasing his walk rate to a whopping 17.2%, up from 11.4% in 2007. At AA in 2008, the 22 year old posted a line of .314/.433/.416 with 5 homeruns in 322 at-bats. Unfortunately, Marson struggles to hit flyballs, only posting 28% flyball rate last year; also concerning was his BABIP, which was an abnormally high .389, that number will almost certainly go down in the future. Marson has the makings of an impressive defensive catcher with solid offensive skills, if he can hit less groundballs he should be very good. There is a sizable chance that Marson could win the starting catcher job with the Phillies from Carlos Ruiz in spring training; even if he doesn't he should see regular playing time by mid-season.
#44 Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA - I already wrote a separate article on Morrison and Mike Stanton a few weeks ago, the entire thing can be found here. "Though he doesn't have the same kind of power as Stanton, Logan Morrison should be a star in his own right. Morrison hit .332 at A+ last year while striking out 80 times and walking 57 times in 488 at-bats last year in the offense-depressed Florida State League. The first baseman showed decent pop, hitting 13 homeruns and posting a .494 slugging percentage. Florida's first base position is wide open with the departure of Mike Jacobs. Morrison, who should start the season in AA has a chance to be a September call up in 2009 and a starter in 2010."
#43 Jordan Schafer, OF, ATL - Before the 2008 season started, Schafer tested positive for HGH and was suspended 50 games. He started slowly when he returned to AA, and there were concerns that he would lose some of his power; surprisingly his power numbers improved thanks to a fantastic second half of the season. His Isolated power (SLG%-AVG) jumped from .183 in A+, to .202 in AA; Schafer also increased his walk rate improving it to 14.8% from 8.3% in 2007. While his .263/.378/.471 line at AA doesn't look too impressive, the 22 year old greatly improved his underlying skills which should show next year when he gets to play a full season. Schafer will compete for an outfield job in spring training, but he'll probably spend at least the first quarter of 2009 in AAA.
#42 Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL - After a breakout year at AA, where he posted a line of .329/.396/.528 with 19 homeruns in 2008, and a trip to the Futures Game, Gamel ended his fantastic season with a September call-up. While he improved dramatically in 2008, Gamel still has a lot he needs to work on, most notably, his defense at third base is atrocious and he will probably have to move to an outfield corner, the 23 year old could also improve his plate discipline, he struck out 110 times while only walking 55 times. Gamel's BABIP was also through the roof at AA at a whopping .393, even if this number regresses to .350 (still extremely high) his batting average would end up around .280. While he appears to be the next great third baseman, Gamel still has a lot to work on before he can be successful in the majors, he could be up by mid-season.
#41 Phillippe Aumont, P, SEA - The 20 year old had a solid first professional season, going 4-4 with a 2.75 ERA in 55 innings at A- before getting hurt. The 6'7 righty has an incredible sinking fastball that sits in the low 90's, when he straightens it out, he can reach the mid to upper-90's-- this approach allows Aumont to rack up both groundballs and strikeouts. Aumont didn't start pitching until he was 14 so he is still quite raw and struggles with his control, there are also concerns about his elbow injury which could require Tommy John Surgery. Nevertheless, Aumont's upside is incredible, if he can develop secondary offerings, he could be an ace, he could also be Mark Prior, but right now he appears to be worth the risk. Assuming all goes well, the large Canadian should reach Seattle around mid-2011.
#40 Mike Stanton, OF, FLA - As I mentioned earlier with Morrison, I wrote a separate article about these two which can be found here. "Stanton was picked in the 2nd round or the 2007 draft. He possesses serious power which he showed off by hitting 39 homeruns at A- as a 19 year old. While he hit .293, Stanton struck out 153 times in 468 at-bats and will need to cut that number down as he ascends through the minors. The outfielder plays below average defense, however that shouldn't hinder him from reaching the majors. If he can improve his plate discipline, Stanton should be able to move quickly through the minors and become star in Florida's outfield for years to come."
Tune in again next Saturday, February 14th for #39-30.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Rising Stars - Reese Havens
With the 22nd pick in the 1st round of the 2008 draft, the New York Mets drafted Reese Havens, a shortstop out of South Carolina. Now you may be asking yourself, "why would the Mets draft a shortstop when they already have Jose Reyes, arguably the second best shortstop in the game?"
Well, the first reason is that Havens, who could probably stick as an average to below-average defensive shortstop, probably projects better as a second baseman. The second reason is that Havens is an extremely gifted, patient hitter.
In his final season with South Carolina, Havens posted a line of .359/.486/.645 and blasted 18 homeruns in just 248 at-bats. Havens also showed excellent patience, walking 58 times while only striking out 44 times. Of course, college numbers are much less dependable than professional numbers, but Havens did play in the SEC, which is one of the toughest conferences in college baseball.
Havens made his professional debut in short-season A ball last year, where he compiled a line of .247/.340/.471 and hit 3 homeruns in 85 at-bats. It's very hard to judge a player with such a small professional sample size, but it appears that Havens has started to make a successful transition form college to pro ball. While Havens' strikeout rate is up, which is expected; he is still walking 11.5% of the time, which is very solid.
If he can continue to improve his offensive game and successfully make the transition from shortstop to second base, Havens could blossom into an elite player at a typically scarce position. He will probably start 2009 in A-, but if he can continue to excel offensively, he should move quickly through the system. Look for Havens to be showing off his effective blend of power and plate discipline in the big leagues by mid-2011.
Well, the first reason is that Havens, who could probably stick as an average to below-average defensive shortstop, probably projects better as a second baseman. The second reason is that Havens is an extremely gifted, patient hitter.
In his final season with South Carolina, Havens posted a line of .359/.486/.645 and blasted 18 homeruns in just 248 at-bats. Havens also showed excellent patience, walking 58 times while only striking out 44 times. Of course, college numbers are much less dependable than professional numbers, but Havens did play in the SEC, which is one of the toughest conferences in college baseball.
Havens made his professional debut in short-season A ball last year, where he compiled a line of .247/.340/.471 and hit 3 homeruns in 85 at-bats. It's very hard to judge a player with such a small professional sample size, but it appears that Havens has started to make a successful transition form college to pro ball. While Havens' strikeout rate is up, which is expected; he is still walking 11.5% of the time, which is very solid.
If he can continue to improve his offensive game and successfully make the transition from shortstop to second base, Havens could blossom into an elite player at a typically scarce position. He will probably start 2009 in A-, but if he can continue to excel offensively, he should move quickly through the system. Look for Havens to be showing off his effective blend of power and plate discipline in the big leagues by mid-2011.
Watch Out For Chris Dickerson
A player to watch out for in 2009 is Cincinnati Reds outfielder Chris Dickerson. Due to the trade of Adam Dunn from the Reds in 2008, Dickerson will now compete in Spring Training for a starting spot in the thin Reds’ outfield. Dickerson was drafted in 2003 and slowly worked his way up through the Red’s minor league system and finally made his debut in 2008.
In 2008, Chris Dickerson only had 102 at-bats, but he sure did take full advantage of that opportunity posting a line of .304/.413/.607 with 6 homeruns and 5 stolen bases. His batting average was probably inflated by a .410 BABIP and should regress closer to his minor leage average of about .270. Ultimately, Dickerson probably will not hit for the best average and will strike out a fair amount of times, but if he gets the playing time, he will probably be a 20-20 (20 homeruns and 20 stolen bases) player without a whole lot of difficulty.
Dickerson should start next year with Willy Taveras and Jay Bruce, which will make a very respectable outfield for the Cincinnati Reds in 2009.
In 2008, Chris Dickerson only had 102 at-bats, but he sure did take full advantage of that opportunity posting a line of .304/.413/.607 with 6 homeruns and 5 stolen bases. His batting average was probably inflated by a .410 BABIP and should regress closer to his minor leage average of about .270. Ultimately, Dickerson probably will not hit for the best average and will strike out a fair amount of times, but if he gets the playing time, he will probably be a 20-20 (20 homeruns and 20 stolen bases) player without a whole lot of difficulty.
Dickerson should start next year with Willy Taveras and Jay Bruce, which will make a very respectable outfield for the Cincinnati Reds in 2009.
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