As you can see below, we recently released our projections for batters. I would like to explain how we got these numbers. Clyde dropped the crystal ball we were planning on using, so these alternate processes will have to do.
We start with each player's career statistics. From there we calculate their 162 game average for all of the stat categories. Next, we multiply these numbers by a factor based on the individual player's age. Finally for rookies, we use something called an MLE to predict their stats for the upcoming season:
An MLE or Major League Equivalency helps us translate a player's minor league performance to a major league scale. The first MLE was developed by Bill James. In James' Baseball Abstract, where he released the MLE formulas, he said that MLEs for players in AA and AAA have the same predictive value as major league stats while the accuracy drops off for A+, A-, and rookie league (it is important to note that these can still be calculated, they are just less accurate due to the wide gap in level of play between the MLB and A ball). We only use AA and AAA MLEs in our projections.
Once the MLEs are calculated, they are added to the player's career stats and the same process is performed. I hope this gives everyone an insight on how we calculated our projections for batters. Feel free to Email or comment with any questions.
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