Before 2008, Jeff Francoeur was touted as a rising star, showing he could hit for both power and average with solid defense. Last year, however, Francoeur put up the worst numbers in his professional career, at 24, an age when hitters are supposed to be breaking out, not severely regressing. Below are Francoeur's numbers for the last 3 seasons:
2006: 29/103/.260 .17 K/BB .286 BABIP
2007: 19/105/.293 .33 K/BB .342 BABIP
2008: 11/70/.239 .35 K/BB .277 BABIP
There are a few positive trends in Francoeur's 2008 numbers. His K/BB rate has risen each year which shows that his plate discipline, while still below-average, is improving. His K% has improved from 20.3% in 2006 to 18.5% in 2008--these gains are not monumental, but they do reflect his steady improvement.
Unfortunately, it looks like his 2007 batting average was a bit of a fluke, however, his '06 and '08 batting averages were also probably a little low. In the future Francoeur's BABIP numbers should fall somewhere between his extremely high '07 season and somewhat low '06 and '08 seasons--look for his BABIP to stabilize around .306, his career average; this means his future batting averages should fall around the .270-.280 range.
It appears that Jeff Francoeur's poor 2008 season was mostly a product of bad luck. He shows steadily improving plate discipline trends and couples them with tremendous power, which should which should bode him well in the future. Look for Francoeur to rebound in 2009.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Return of the World Champion's Starting Rotation
This off-season the San Fransisco Giants were not the only team signing a 40+ year old pitcher. The Philadelphia Phillies re-signed Jamie Moyer (46), which means that the rotation that took the Phillies to the World Series will be back in 2009. Here's how it looks:
#1 Starter - Cole Hamels: 14-10 3.09 ERA 7.76 K/9 3.70 K/BB
#2 Starter - Brett Myers: 10-13 4.55 ERA 7.72 K/9 2.51 K/BB
#3 Starter - Jamie Moyer: 16-7 3.71 ERA 5.64 K/9 1.98 K/BB
#4 Starter - Joe Blanton: 9-12 4.69 ERA 5.05 K/9 1.68 K/BB
#5 Starter - Kyle Kendrick: 11-9 5.49 ERA 3.93 K/9 1.19 K/BB
Cole Hamels is one of the top pitchers in the NL and in all of baseball. His record did not do Cole Hamels any justice last year, due to the lack of run support he received. He showed in the playoffs how dominant he can be and I believe that his recent performance in the playoffs will translate into his best regular season in 2009.
Brett Myers was awful at the beginning of the 2008 season. He was giving up homeruns left and right and was not pitching as well as he has in the past. He was sent down to the minors and after spending some time at the A, AA, and AAA levels he returned to the Phillies and pitched a lot better. If he can pitch the way he did at the end 2008 in 2009, then he should have a solid year and have much better numbers than he did in 2008. The Phillies need him to be successful.
Jamie Moyer continues to surprise and impress everyone. He is 46 years old and he had one of his best years statistically last year and he won 16 games. He was re-signed in the off-season for 2 more years, which means he will be pitching in 4 different decades. The Phillies are not going to ask much of him, just keep doing what he has been doing, which is be a leader in the clubhouse, an example on the field, and be a pitching genius that he has always been.
Joe Blanton was traded to Philadelphia from Oakland in the middle of last season. Blanton pitched well and did not lose a game in a Phillies uniform. In 2007 Blanton pitched extremely well and if he can return to that form than that would be great for the Phillies rotation. He is a good pitcher and he will eat up innings and keep the Phillies in the games that he pitches.
Kyle Kendrick won 11 games, but really did not pitch too well and by the end of the year was not in the rotation. I believe that his spot in the rotation is up for grabs and that J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco can jump into that 5th spot if either have a good spring training.
The Phillies rotation that won them a World Series has the potential to be better in 2009 than they were in 2008. Joe Blanton will have more opportunity to pitch with the Phillies and he showed in the World Series that he is a good pitcher, the #5 starter spot might improve with the addition of J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco, and if Cole Hamels gets run support he could close to a 20 game winner. If that starting rotation can give turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball, which consists of J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, and Brad Lidge, then the Phillies will definitely be in the hunt to defend their title.
#1 Starter - Cole Hamels: 14-10 3.09 ERA 7.76 K/9 3.70 K/BB
#2 Starter - Brett Myers: 10-13 4.55 ERA 7.72 K/9 2.51 K/BB
#3 Starter - Jamie Moyer: 16-7 3.71 ERA 5.64 K/9 1.98 K/BB
#4 Starter - Joe Blanton: 9-12 4.69 ERA 5.05 K/9 1.68 K/BB
#5 Starter - Kyle Kendrick: 11-9 5.49 ERA 3.93 K/9 1.19 K/BB
Cole Hamels is one of the top pitchers in the NL and in all of baseball. His record did not do Cole Hamels any justice last year, due to the lack of run support he received. He showed in the playoffs how dominant he can be and I believe that his recent performance in the playoffs will translate into his best regular season in 2009.
Brett Myers was awful at the beginning of the 2008 season. He was giving up homeruns left and right and was not pitching as well as he has in the past. He was sent down to the minors and after spending some time at the A, AA, and AAA levels he returned to the Phillies and pitched a lot better. If he can pitch the way he did at the end 2008 in 2009, then he should have a solid year and have much better numbers than he did in 2008. The Phillies need him to be successful.
Jamie Moyer continues to surprise and impress everyone. He is 46 years old and he had one of his best years statistically last year and he won 16 games. He was re-signed in the off-season for 2 more years, which means he will be pitching in 4 different decades. The Phillies are not going to ask much of him, just keep doing what he has been doing, which is be a leader in the clubhouse, an example on the field, and be a pitching genius that he has always been.
Joe Blanton was traded to Philadelphia from Oakland in the middle of last season. Blanton pitched well and did not lose a game in a Phillies uniform. In 2007 Blanton pitched extremely well and if he can return to that form than that would be great for the Phillies rotation. He is a good pitcher and he will eat up innings and keep the Phillies in the games that he pitches.
Kyle Kendrick won 11 games, but really did not pitch too well and by the end of the year was not in the rotation. I believe that his spot in the rotation is up for grabs and that J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco can jump into that 5th spot if either have a good spring training.
The Phillies rotation that won them a World Series has the potential to be better in 2009 than they were in 2008. Joe Blanton will have more opportunity to pitch with the Phillies and he showed in the World Series that he is a good pitcher, the #5 starter spot might improve with the addition of J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco, and if Cole Hamels gets run support he could close to a 20 game winner. If that starting rotation can give turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball, which consists of J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, and Brad Lidge, then the Phillies will definitely be in the hunt to defend their title.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Randy Johnson's Impact on the Giants Staff
Over the weekend Randy Johnson signed a 1 year deal with the San Francisco Giants. It now seems that Brian Seaban has put together a pretty good rotation anchored by home grown talent.
#1 Starter - Tim Lincecum: 18-5 2.62 ERA 10.5 K/9 3.2 K/BB
#2 Starter - Matt Cain: 8-14 3.76 ERA 7.7 K/9 3.8 K/BB
#3 Starter - Randy Johnson: 11-10 3.91 ERA 8.5 K/9 3.9 K/BB
#4 Starter - Jonathan Sanchez: 9-12 5.01 ERA 8.9 K/9 2.1 K/BB
#5 Starter - Noah Lowry - DNP(Injured)
Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in the NL, maybe in all of baseball. Despite being just 24, Lincecum has already won a Cy Young award and should be expected to have another successful year.
Over the past two years Matt Cain has gotten virtually no run support at all, bringing down his win totals. Make no mistake about it, Matt Cain is a stud. He should get better run support this year which hopefully will lead to more wins.
Though he is 45 years old, Randy Johnson is still an above average NL pitcher who will strike out almost a batter per inning and keep a low ERA. No longer an ace, but still very good.
Sanchez should improve on his rookie season. like Johnson he strikes out almost a batter per inning, however he struggles with his control. If he can keep his walks down, Jonathan Sanchez should be at least average this year.
Noah Lowry was injured all of last year, he is expected to be ready by opening day. His skills have started to decline, but with a healthy elbow he could have a resurgence. He and Johnson will provide excellent stopgaps until the Giants two stud pitching prospects, Tim Alderson and Madison Bumgarner, are ready.
As you can see Randy Johnson helps sure up the Giants rotation, hopefully pushing Barry Zito to middle relief (or better yet the minor leagues). At this point in his career, Johnson is no longer capable of being an ace, however he can be still be an above average innings eater for San Francisco this year and provide veteran leadership for an otherwise young rotation. Add in Jeremy Affeldt to help sure up the bullpen and you have one of the better pitching staffs in the National League. Now if they only had offense...
#1 Starter - Tim Lincecum: 18-5 2.62 ERA 10.5 K/9 3.2 K/BB
#2 Starter - Matt Cain: 8-14 3.76 ERA 7.7 K/9 3.8 K/BB
#3 Starter - Randy Johnson: 11-10 3.91 ERA 8.5 K/9 3.9 K/BB
#4 Starter - Jonathan Sanchez: 9-12 5.01 ERA 8.9 K/9 2.1 K/BB
#5 Starter - Noah Lowry - DNP(Injured)
Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in the NL, maybe in all of baseball. Despite being just 24, Lincecum has already won a Cy Young award and should be expected to have another successful year.
Over the past two years Matt Cain has gotten virtually no run support at all, bringing down his win totals. Make no mistake about it, Matt Cain is a stud. He should get better run support this year which hopefully will lead to more wins.
Though he is 45 years old, Randy Johnson is still an above average NL pitcher who will strike out almost a batter per inning and keep a low ERA. No longer an ace, but still very good.
Sanchez should improve on his rookie season. like Johnson he strikes out almost a batter per inning, however he struggles with his control. If he can keep his walks down, Jonathan Sanchez should be at least average this year.
Noah Lowry was injured all of last year, he is expected to be ready by opening day. His skills have started to decline, but with a healthy elbow he could have a resurgence. He and Johnson will provide excellent stopgaps until the Giants two stud pitching prospects, Tim Alderson and Madison Bumgarner, are ready.
As you can see Randy Johnson helps sure up the Giants rotation, hopefully pushing Barry Zito to middle relief (or better yet the minor leagues). At this point in his career, Johnson is no longer capable of being an ace, however he can be still be an above average innings eater for San Francisco this year and provide veteran leadership for an otherwise young rotation. Add in Jeremy Affeldt to help sure up the bullpen and you have one of the better pitching staffs in the National League. Now if they only had offense...
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Best Leadoff Hitter in Baseball
After seeing the recent signing by the Cincinnati Reds of new starting center fielder and leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras, it got me thinking about the best leadoff hitters in baseball. What makes a good leadoff hitter? A player who makes a pitcher work, gets on base any way that he can, jump starts the offense, and scores runs.
In my opinion the best leadoff hitter in baseball is Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners. He does everything you could ask for in a leadoff hitter. He consistently hits over .300, he consistently gets 200 hits a season, he consistently scores over 100 runs a season, he steals bases, and he does not strike out a whole lot. He does it all and is very good. Other notable lead off men, such as Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Grady Sizemore (just to name a few), are extremely talented and great leadoff hitters, but they lack the consistency and the ability to do everything like Ichiro can.
It is a shame that this great athlete came over to America later in his career, but what he has done in that leadoff spot since coming to Seattle has been amazing. Expect Ichiro to perform at the same level in 2009 that he has been throughout his career.
In my opinion the best leadoff hitter in baseball is Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners. He does everything you could ask for in a leadoff hitter. He consistently hits over .300, he consistently gets 200 hits a season, he consistently scores over 100 runs a season, he steals bases, and he does not strike out a whole lot. He does it all and is very good. Other notable lead off men, such as Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Grady Sizemore (just to name a few), are extremely talented and great leadoff hitters, but they lack the consistency and the ability to do everything like Ichiro can.
It is a shame that this great athlete came over to America later in his career, but what he has done in that leadoff spot since coming to Seattle has been amazing. Expect Ichiro to perform at the same level in 2009 that he has been throughout his career.
Under the Radar Prospect - Kila Ka’aihue
Age - 24
Position - 1B/DH
Games Played - 124
AB - 391
Runs - 91
Hits - 126
Homeruns - 37
RBIs - 100
Walks - 104
Strikeouts - 67
BA - .315
OBP - .451
SLG - .632
OPS - 1.083
Kila Ka’aihue had a great year in 2008 playing for Kansas City's AA and AAA minor league teams, but he has not gotten the attention that he deserves. In Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook Kila Ka’aihue was not mentioned at all for the Royals. They chose 30 players instead of him and I think they missed a very good player. Maybe it had to do with age, but I believe this guy is definitely a worthy prospect. He walked almost 40 more times than he struck out, which is unreal for a power hitting prospect!
In 2008 Kila Ka’aihue was called up at the end of the year and played 12 games. In those 12 games he hit .286, with 21 ABs, 6 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 homerun, 1 rbi, and 4 runs. Those are solid numbers for a guy who was not given a lot of opportunity to prove himself. I do not know why he was not called up earlier because he proved himself in the minors and the Royals did not have a first basemen or DH that really stood out that would hinder Kila Ka’aihue from moving up.
I do not think that his numbers in the majors will be as good as his numbers in the minors, but I believe that Kila Ka’aihue could be a very solid player at the major league level. Hopefully the Royals give him a chance to prove himself and hopefully Baseball America and other prospect writers will give him the respect that he deserves. Watch out for Kila Ka’aihue as a major sleeper prospect in the 2009 season.
Position - 1B/DH
Games Played - 124
AB - 391
Runs - 91
Hits - 126
Homeruns - 37
RBIs - 100
Walks - 104
Strikeouts - 67
BA - .315
OBP - .451
SLG - .632
OPS - 1.083
Kila Ka’aihue had a great year in 2008 playing for Kansas City's AA and AAA minor league teams, but he has not gotten the attention that he deserves. In Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook Kila Ka’aihue was not mentioned at all for the Royals. They chose 30 players instead of him and I think they missed a very good player. Maybe it had to do with age, but I believe this guy is definitely a worthy prospect. He walked almost 40 more times than he struck out, which is unreal for a power hitting prospect!
In 2008 Kila Ka’aihue was called up at the end of the year and played 12 games. In those 12 games he hit .286, with 21 ABs, 6 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 homerun, 1 rbi, and 4 runs. Those are solid numbers for a guy who was not given a lot of opportunity to prove himself. I do not know why he was not called up earlier because he proved himself in the minors and the Royals did not have a first basemen or DH that really stood out that would hinder Kila Ka’aihue from moving up.
I do not think that his numbers in the majors will be as good as his numbers in the minors, but I believe that Kila Ka’aihue could be a very solid player at the major league level. Hopefully the Royals give him a chance to prove himself and hopefully Baseball America and other prospect writers will give him the respect that he deserves. Watch out for Kila Ka’aihue as a major sleeper prospect in the 2009 season.
Billy Beane's Spending and Oakland's Future
Billy Beane, the General Manager of the Oakland A's, has become synonymous with successful small market spending to field competitive teams. This off-season it appears that Beane has strayed from the norm. Beane has made serious pushes for high priced free agents Rafael Furcal, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi and Garrett Anderson.
Oakland's payroll is currently just over $47 million which ranks 28th in the majors right now. Below are the Oakland's payroll rankings since Beane was appointed GM in 1997:
1997 - 28th
1998 - 28th
1999 - 24th
2000 - 25th
2001 - 29th
2002 - 28th
2003 - 23rd
2004 - 16th
2005 - 22nd
2006 - 21st
2007 - 17th
2008 - 28th
The A's have never been in the top half of the league in terms of payroll so why are they making a push now?
Cisco Field, Oakland's new stadium will be ready in two years which means the the A's revenue will drastically increase, providing Beane with more money to spend on players.
Oakland's farm system currently rates as one of the top three in baseball, which is not new for the A's. However there is large difference in how they have been acquiring players this season. The A's signed Michael Inoa, the top Latin-American prospect on the market, for $4.25 million, the highest signing bonus to any non-Cuban international player in history. Beane also broke away from his trend of selecting college players in the first round of the Amateur Draft when he selected pitcher Trevor Cahill in the 2006 draft. Cahill is expected to make his major league debut sometime this season.
This off-season Beane traded away highly touted rookie Carlos Gonzalez to the Colorado Rockies for all star outfielder Matt Holliday. Holliday will be a free agent next year, which means Oakland will probably try to re-sign him.
All of the pieces are in place for Beane and the A's to go on a huge spending spree over the next two off-seasons. With Beane's talent recognition that helped the A's make the playoffs with inferior payrolls, the A's could be very dangerous with his hands on big market money.
Oakland's payroll is currently just over $47 million which ranks 28th in the majors right now. Below are the Oakland's payroll rankings since Beane was appointed GM in 1997:
1997 - 28th
1998 - 28th
1999 - 24th
2000 - 25th
2001 - 29th
2002 - 28th
2003 - 23rd
2004 - 16th
2005 - 22nd
2006 - 21st
2007 - 17th
2008 - 28th
The A's have never been in the top half of the league in terms of payroll so why are they making a push now?
Cisco Field, Oakland's new stadium will be ready in two years which means the the A's revenue will drastically increase, providing Beane with more money to spend on players.
Oakland's farm system currently rates as one of the top three in baseball, which is not new for the A's. However there is large difference in how they have been acquiring players this season. The A's signed Michael Inoa, the top Latin-American prospect on the market, for $4.25 million, the highest signing bonus to any non-Cuban international player in history. Beane also broke away from his trend of selecting college players in the first round of the Amateur Draft when he selected pitcher Trevor Cahill in the 2006 draft. Cahill is expected to make his major league debut sometime this season.
This off-season Beane traded away highly touted rookie Carlos Gonzalez to the Colorado Rockies for all star outfielder Matt Holliday. Holliday will be a free agent next year, which means Oakland will probably try to re-sign him.
All of the pieces are in place for Beane and the A's to go on a huge spending spree over the next two off-seasons. With Beane's talent recognition that helped the A's make the playoffs with inferior payrolls, the A's could be very dangerous with his hands on big market money.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Rising Stars - Madison Bumgarner
In 2008 the South Atlantic League (SAL) was swept away by 19 year old Madison Bumgarner. The lefthander compiled a line of:
141 IP 10.4 K/9 7.81 K/BB 1.46 ERA 0.93 WHIP
Bumgarner certainly has the stats, but does he have the stuff to go with it?
The Giants prospect has a big time fastball that sits in the mid 90's and can touch 97-98 with good life and pinpoint control. His other two pitches, curveball and changeup, lag far behind his fastball in movement, control, and development, grading as somewhat fringey pitches.
Bumgarner was able to dominate with only his fastball this year as evidenced by his extremely high K/BB ratio. He should be able to get by in the upper levels of the minors however he is going to need to develop stronger secondary offerings if he wants to make it in the majors.
Madison Bumgarner is only 19 and has plenty of time to work on his secondary offerings, however, if they do not develop then his usage in the majors may be limited to relief work.
141 IP 10.4 K/9 7.81 K/BB 1.46 ERA 0.93 WHIP
Bumgarner certainly has the stats, but does he have the stuff to go with it?
The Giants prospect has a big time fastball that sits in the mid 90's and can touch 97-98 with good life and pinpoint control. His other two pitches, curveball and changeup, lag far behind his fastball in movement, control, and development, grading as somewhat fringey pitches.
Bumgarner was able to dominate with only his fastball this year as evidenced by his extremely high K/BB ratio. He should be able to get by in the upper levels of the minors however he is going to need to develop stronger secondary offerings if he wants to make it in the majors.
Madison Bumgarner is only 19 and has plenty of time to work on his secondary offerings, however, if they do not develop then his usage in the majors may be limited to relief work.
Dan Haren vs Ervin Santana
Recently in a fantasy baseball league I was offered Ervin Santana for Dan Haren. I was well aware of Haren's stats, but I was not very familiar with Santana's, besides his record. So I decided to look deeper into these two pitchers and I was surprised with what I found.
Dan Haren:
W - 16
L - 8
ERA - 3.33
WHIP - 1.13
K/9 - 8.58
BAA - .251
BABIP - .315
LOB% - 73.4%
Ervin Santana:
W - 16
L - 7
ERA - 3.49
WHIP - 1.12
K/9 - 8.79
BAA - .243
BABIP - .302
LOB% - 74.3%
As you can see their seasons were eerily similar even though most people think of Haren as being a higher caliber pitcher. Even though these pitchers are statistically similar, Ervin Santana (25) is three years younger than Dan Haren (28). This raises the question of whether Ervin Santana will become a top 5 American League pitcher within the same manor that Dan Haren did with the Oakland Athletics, when he broke out in 2007. This is worthy of keeping an eye on in the coming season.
Both pitchers broke into the league at the age of 22, however Santana has found success at an earlier age than Haren.
Haren (22):
IP - 72.2
W - 3
L - 7
ERA - 5.08
WHIP - 1.46
K/9 - 5.33
Santana (22):
IP - 133.2
W - 12
L - 8
ERA - 4.65
WHIP - 1.39
K/9 - 6.67
It is evident by these stats that Santana's first year at age 22 was better than Haren's first year at the age of 22. Based on their past performances and their stats now, it seems like young Ervin Santana should develop into a Dan Haren type pitcher in his prime.
Dan Haren:
W - 16
L - 8
ERA - 3.33
WHIP - 1.13
K/9 - 8.58
BAA - .251
BABIP - .315
LOB% - 73.4%
Ervin Santana:
W - 16
L - 7
ERA - 3.49
WHIP - 1.12
K/9 - 8.79
BAA - .243
BABIP - .302
LOB% - 74.3%
As you can see their seasons were eerily similar even though most people think of Haren as being a higher caliber pitcher. Even though these pitchers are statistically similar, Ervin Santana (25) is three years younger than Dan Haren (28). This raises the question of whether Ervin Santana will become a top 5 American League pitcher within the same manor that Dan Haren did with the Oakland Athletics, when he broke out in 2007. This is worthy of keeping an eye on in the coming season.
Both pitchers broke into the league at the age of 22, however Santana has found success at an earlier age than Haren.
Haren (22):
IP - 72.2
W - 3
L - 7
ERA - 5.08
WHIP - 1.46
K/9 - 5.33
Santana (22):
IP - 133.2
W - 12
L - 8
ERA - 4.65
WHIP - 1.39
K/9 - 6.67
It is evident by these stats that Santana's first year at age 22 was better than Haren's first year at the age of 22. Based on their past performances and their stats now, it seems like young Ervin Santana should develop into a Dan Haren type pitcher in his prime.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Clyde's Top 10 Prospects
Here is my Top 10 List of prospects compared to Speedy's:
1 - David Price, TB - #1 overall pick in 2007 by the Tampa Bay Rays and he has not disappointed yet. Dominated the minor leagues and because of that got the big call up late in the MLB season. When called up Price still not disappoint, pitching solid at the end of the year and into the playoffs for the Rays. He has two very good pitches, high velocity, and strikes out a lot of batters. He will be in the starting rotation for the Rays in 2009.
2 - Matt Wieters, BAL - I would not really say that Wieters is second on my list, but more of my #1a pick. Not too much to say about him that Speedy has not already covered. He can hit extremely well for a catcher and can field his position. He is going to compete for the opening day job and if he does not get it in spring training. My hope and belief is that he will get the job right away. He should be a superstar.
3 - Travis Snider, TOR - Snider got called up at the end of last year at the age of 20 years old. That is amazing and does not happen very often. He has been successful at every level so far and he should put up good power numbers in the majors. Couple of knocks on him though. 1 - He strikes out a lot. 2 - They say he is an outfielder, but I do not really see him staying there too long. More of a DH player. He is very young and so each year I believe he will improve and becoming a very good player.
4 - Mike Moustakas, KC - A shortstop with a ton of power! I have him up at #4 just for that reason alone. If he stays at shortstop, which I am hoping for, he is going to be one of the top power hitting shortstops for a long time. That power should help him move up to the bigs faster and be on the team at some point in 09, but if not then definitely in 2010. Also, for being a power hitter he does not strike out as much as most young power hitters do.
5 - Pedro Alvarez, PIT - Speedy and I agree with this pick right here and there is not much more to say about him that Speedy has not covered. He has a great future ahead of him and will hopefully move up quickly through Pittsburgh's minor league system.
6 - Dayan Viciedo, CWS - He is 19 years old, will be competing for the opening day White Sox 3B job, and was given a four year, $10 million contract (according to www.ESPN.com). That alone is pretty amazing. He is a Cuban native with a world of potential. A knock on him is his weight according to skipper Ozzie Guillen. If he can come into spring training fit and motivated, then the possibility of him starting and making a big impact is not far off at all.
7 - Tommy Hanson, ATL - 163 strikeouts in 138 innings and only 52 walks last year is what Tommy Hanson put up in A+/AA last year. That is unreal! Hanson completely dominated last year with a 2.41 era, a sub 1 whip, and a strikeout per 9 rate of over 10. He should be competing for a spot in the Brave's rotation next year and you should expect to see him at some point in 2009.
8 - Trevor Cahill, OAK - 20 years old and was pitching at AA is very good. While pitching at AA at a young age, he pitched as if he was much older. Cahill put up great stats and should be in the mojors at some point in 09 and it could be as early as opening day. Cahill is extremely intelligent on the baseball field which is amazing for a player at his age. His velocity is not as high as most strikeout pitchers, but with his control and intelligence he should continue to be a dominant strikeout pitcher.
9 - Colby Rasmus, STL - The reason why I have Rasmus so low is because of his rough year last year. He started off really slow and then was hurt and so his 2008 season should be one to forget for him. He should be a really great player putting up great power numbers and stealing a good amount of bases, but he dropped on my list because of his 08 season. He should rebound and be up with the Cardinals in 2009. He has superstar potential.
10 - Cameron Maybin, FLA - He has all the tools to be a great player, but is inconsistent right now and you never know what Maybin you are going to get. He strikes out a lot, but can hit for power and steal bases. He was called up last year and actually tore it up in his short stint with the Marlins. He had a .500 average with a wOBA of .517, he scored 9 runs and had 4 stolen bases in 36 plate appearances. Hopefully that carries over into next year, but the strikes out and consistency is something to watch out for.
1 - David Price, TB - #1 overall pick in 2007 by the Tampa Bay Rays and he has not disappointed yet. Dominated the minor leagues and because of that got the big call up late in the MLB season. When called up Price still not disappoint, pitching solid at the end of the year and into the playoffs for the Rays. He has two very good pitches, high velocity, and strikes out a lot of batters. He will be in the starting rotation for the Rays in 2009.
2 - Matt Wieters, BAL - I would not really say that Wieters is second on my list, but more of my #1a pick. Not too much to say about him that Speedy has not already covered. He can hit extremely well for a catcher and can field his position. He is going to compete for the opening day job and if he does not get it in spring training. My hope and belief is that he will get the job right away. He should be a superstar.
3 - Travis Snider, TOR - Snider got called up at the end of last year at the age of 20 years old. That is amazing and does not happen very often. He has been successful at every level so far and he should put up good power numbers in the majors. Couple of knocks on him though. 1 - He strikes out a lot. 2 - They say he is an outfielder, but I do not really see him staying there too long. More of a DH player. He is very young and so each year I believe he will improve and becoming a very good player.
4 - Mike Moustakas, KC - A shortstop with a ton of power! I have him up at #4 just for that reason alone. If he stays at shortstop, which I am hoping for, he is going to be one of the top power hitting shortstops for a long time. That power should help him move up to the bigs faster and be on the team at some point in 09, but if not then definitely in 2010. Also, for being a power hitter he does not strike out as much as most young power hitters do.
5 - Pedro Alvarez, PIT - Speedy and I agree with this pick right here and there is not much more to say about him that Speedy has not covered. He has a great future ahead of him and will hopefully move up quickly through Pittsburgh's minor league system.
6 - Dayan Viciedo, CWS - He is 19 years old, will be competing for the opening day White Sox 3B job, and was given a four year, $10 million contract (according to www.ESPN.com). That alone is pretty amazing. He is a Cuban native with a world of potential. A knock on him is his weight according to skipper Ozzie Guillen. If he can come into spring training fit and motivated, then the possibility of him starting and making a big impact is not far off at all.
7 - Tommy Hanson, ATL - 163 strikeouts in 138 innings and only 52 walks last year is what Tommy Hanson put up in A+/AA last year. That is unreal! Hanson completely dominated last year with a 2.41 era, a sub 1 whip, and a strikeout per 9 rate of over 10. He should be competing for a spot in the Brave's rotation next year and you should expect to see him at some point in 2009.
8 - Trevor Cahill, OAK - 20 years old and was pitching at AA is very good. While pitching at AA at a young age, he pitched as if he was much older. Cahill put up great stats and should be in the mojors at some point in 09 and it could be as early as opening day. Cahill is extremely intelligent on the baseball field which is amazing for a player at his age. His velocity is not as high as most strikeout pitchers, but with his control and intelligence he should continue to be a dominant strikeout pitcher.
9 - Colby Rasmus, STL - The reason why I have Rasmus so low is because of his rough year last year. He started off really slow and then was hurt and so his 2008 season should be one to forget for him. He should be a really great player putting up great power numbers and stealing a good amount of bases, but he dropped on my list because of his 08 season. He should rebound and be up with the Cardinals in 2009. He has superstar potential.
10 - Cameron Maybin, FLA - He has all the tools to be a great player, but is inconsistent right now and you never know what Maybin you are going to get. He strikes out a lot, but can hit for power and steal bases. He was called up last year and actually tore it up in his short stint with the Marlins. He had a .500 average with a wOBA of .517, he scored 9 runs and had 4 stolen bases in 36 plate appearances. Hopefully that carries over into next year, but the strikes out and consistency is something to watch out for.
Speedy's Top 10 Prospects
We have added a few new things, under the picture of Tim Lincecum we have added our respective top 10 prospect lists which we will update and debate about throughout the season.
Here are my reasons for the rankings on my list...
1. Matt Wieters - I don't think there is much debate about this one, switch hitting catchers with the ability to put up 30/100/.300 numbers regularly and above average defense don't come along that often.
2. David Price - The first overall pick in the 2007 draft broke into the majors mostly as a reliever this year, however, he should be entrenched in the Tampa Bay rotation next year and for years to come with the makings of 2 plus pitches (fastball and slider), and the ability to induce a large amount of ground balls while striking out a lot of batters.
3. Travis Snider - Snider flew through the minors in 2008, starting at single-A and working his way up the the majors--as a 20 year old! He should hit for lots of power down the line, however there are some concerns about his batting and strikeouts.
4. Colby Rasmus - The Cardinals top prospect was expected to make the team out of spring training last year, but he was sent back to AAA where he struggled for the first two months of the season, then injured his knee. He rebounded nicely in the second half of the season and is a legitimate 5- tool stud who should break into St. Louis early next year.
5. Pedro Alvarez - The second overall pick in the 2008 draft did not play pro ball at all last year due to a signing complication. He should start in A+ next year and move through the minors quickly. Alvarez has the ability to hit for high average and lots of power when he breaks into the MLB.
6. Dayan Viciedo - Viciedo defected from Cuba (where he started playing in their top professional league at 16) in the spring of '08 and signed with the Whitesox about three weeks ago. Despite being only 19 years old, the Whitesox have said that he could make the team out of spring training. He is somewhat unpolished yet should hit for both power and average with very good defense down the road.
7. Rick Porcello - He finished his first pro season with a 2.66 ERA as a 19 year old in A+, that alone in somewhat amazing, but it gets even better, he had a 65% ground ball rate and even though he only struck out about 5 batters per 9 innings, he has electric stuff (mid 90's fastball, power curve) and should become a better strikeout pitcher as he gets older.
8. Trevor Cahill - Cahill had a great season split between A+ and AA last year and is expected to be called up early in 2009 if he doesn't make the rotation out of spring training. Cahill throws a low 90's fastball with good sink (63% ground ball rate) and a sharp curve ball which rates as his best pitch. Cahill has an optimistic combination of ground balls and strikeouts (10 per 9 innings last year) which could help him become Oakland's ace in a few years.
9. Mike Moustakas - The second overall pick in '07, Moustakas has big time power which could help him break into Kansas City as either a shortstop or third baseman (though 3B is more likely). He could eventually develop into a 40/100/.280 hitter.
10. Cameron Maybin - He would be much higher if he didn't strike out so much. Either way, there is no refuting that Maybin has a combination of power and speed that could make him a regular all-star and statistical freak. He is a 5-tool stud who could eventually do 30-30's with ease if he gets his plate discipline under control.
Here are my reasons for the rankings on my list...
1. Matt Wieters - I don't think there is much debate about this one, switch hitting catchers with the ability to put up 30/100/.300 numbers regularly and above average defense don't come along that often.
2. David Price - The first overall pick in the 2007 draft broke into the majors mostly as a reliever this year, however, he should be entrenched in the Tampa Bay rotation next year and for years to come with the makings of 2 plus pitches (fastball and slider), and the ability to induce a large amount of ground balls while striking out a lot of batters.
3. Travis Snider - Snider flew through the minors in 2008, starting at single-A and working his way up the the majors--as a 20 year old! He should hit for lots of power down the line, however there are some concerns about his batting and strikeouts.
4. Colby Rasmus - The Cardinals top prospect was expected to make the team out of spring training last year, but he was sent back to AAA where he struggled for the first two months of the season, then injured his knee. He rebounded nicely in the second half of the season and is a legitimate 5- tool stud who should break into St. Louis early next year.
5. Pedro Alvarez - The second overall pick in the 2008 draft did not play pro ball at all last year due to a signing complication. He should start in A+ next year and move through the minors quickly. Alvarez has the ability to hit for high average and lots of power when he breaks into the MLB.
6. Dayan Viciedo - Viciedo defected from Cuba (where he started playing in their top professional league at 16) in the spring of '08 and signed with the Whitesox about three weeks ago. Despite being only 19 years old, the Whitesox have said that he could make the team out of spring training. He is somewhat unpolished yet should hit for both power and average with very good defense down the road.
7. Rick Porcello - He finished his first pro season with a 2.66 ERA as a 19 year old in A+, that alone in somewhat amazing, but it gets even better, he had a 65% ground ball rate and even though he only struck out about 5 batters per 9 innings, he has electric stuff (mid 90's fastball, power curve) and should become a better strikeout pitcher as he gets older.
8. Trevor Cahill - Cahill had a great season split between A+ and AA last year and is expected to be called up early in 2009 if he doesn't make the rotation out of spring training. Cahill throws a low 90's fastball with good sink (63% ground ball rate) and a sharp curve ball which rates as his best pitch. Cahill has an optimistic combination of ground balls and strikeouts (10 per 9 innings last year) which could help him become Oakland's ace in a few years.
9. Mike Moustakas - The second overall pick in '07, Moustakas has big time power which could help him break into Kansas City as either a shortstop or third baseman (though 3B is more likely). He could eventually develop into a 40/100/.280 hitter.
10. Cameron Maybin - He would be much higher if he didn't strike out so much. Either way, there is no refuting that Maybin has a combination of power and speed that could make him a regular all-star and statistical freak. He is a 5-tool stud who could eventually do 30-30's with ease if he gets his plate discipline under control.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Statistics Primer
With this being the first article we have written, I would like to say welcome to anybody that reads this. I hope that you all find this as interesting as we do. Enjoy...
We all know Batting Average, OPS, ERA and WHIP but here are a few lesser know statistics that are very effective at measuring individual performances.
For Hitters:
wOBA (Weighted On Base Average) - Developed by Tom Tango, wOBA measures a hitter's all-around performance. wOBA is based on the run values of singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks and GIDP in a more accurate way than OPS and is scaled like OBP (.330 is average, .400 is great)
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) - BABIP is the average of all balls put in play by a batter. An average player's BABIP is usually around .300. BABIP can be used to measure and pick out lucky performances by batters.
For Pitchers:
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) - Also Devolped by Tom Tango, FIP is designed to eliminate factors that a pitcher cannot control by foucusing on HR allowed, strikeouts, and walks. FIP is scaled like an ERA.
LOB% (Strand rate or Left on Base Percentage) - Devolped and researched by Ron Shandler, Strand Rate measures the percentage of batters who reach base but do not go on to score. The league average is usually around 70-72%.
We all know Batting Average, OPS, ERA and WHIP but here are a few lesser know statistics that are very effective at measuring individual performances.
For Hitters:
wOBA (Weighted On Base Average) - Developed by Tom Tango, wOBA measures a hitter's all-around performance. wOBA is based on the run values of singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks and GIDP in a more accurate way than OPS and is scaled like OBP (.330 is average, .400 is great)
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) - BABIP is the average of all balls put in play by a batter. An average player's BABIP is usually around .300. BABIP can be used to measure and pick out lucky performances by batters.
For Pitchers:
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) - Also Devolped by Tom Tango, FIP is designed to eliminate factors that a pitcher cannot control by foucusing on HR allowed, strikeouts, and walks. FIP is scaled like an ERA.
LOB% (Strand rate or Left on Base Percentage) - Devolped and researched by Ron Shandler, Strand Rate measures the percentage of batters who reach base but do not go on to score. The league average is usually around 70-72%.
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