Zach Duke?!?

Ten starts into 2009 and Zach Duke is cruisin' . The 26 year old who is 5-4 with a 2.75 ERA, appears poised to make the first all-star game of his career. Yes, that's right, the same Zach Duke who went 18-37 in the years after his magical 2005 season when he burst onto the scene, going 8-2 with a sparkling 1.81 ERA in 14 starts. Here are his '09 numbers to date:

72 IP / 5-4 / 2.75 ERA / 42 SO / 17 BB / 1.11 WHIP / .268 BABIP / 75.9% LOB%

One of the driving forces behind his fantastic ERA has been his K/9 rate. While its still pathetic, it's sitting a 5.3 which is up from his 4.6 career K/9. Duke has kept his walks in line with his career numbers, at around 2.4 per 9 innings. The outlier is his .5 HR/9 rate which will be extremely hard to maintain for an entire season.

Duke has a discouraging batted ball trend that will not bode well with his low HR/9 rate. After inducing 51.1% groundballs in 2006, Duke's GB% has dropped each year and now sits at 45.5% for the '09 campaign. His flyball rate has increased each year from a tidy 26.4% in 2005 up to 35.5% in 2009--and more flyballs means more homeruns.

The bottom line is Duke has some fatal career trends that, with a little more time, will most likely prove to be the undoing to a brilliant first quarter of baseball. When you throw in a .267 BABIP which is nowhere close to his career .324 mark,you can be almost certain that Zach Duke will revert to his former ways, maybe worse.

A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing

This year there have been many outstanding pitchers and one who is flying under the radar is Randy Wolf. Last night Wolf had another very good outing for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as he picked up the win going 7 innings against the Chicago Cubs allowing one earned run, one walk, and striking out 7. Wolf only allowed 2 extra base hits and only 2 fly ball outs, meaning that the rest of the outs were via groundball or strikeouts, which is a fantastic sign. Going in to last night's game this is what he has done.

2009: 10 GS/62.2 IP/2-1/3.02 ERA/1.12 WHIP/50 Ks/19 BBs

Before last nights game Wolf ranked 10th in the NL in ERA and last night he lowered it even more. He uses big slow curveball, to set up his 90 MPH fastball and vice versa, which leaves batters off balance and leads to more strikeouts. He is an extreme flyball pitcher (45.6%), but that should play fine in the vast outfields of Dodger Stadium. Wolf's true improvement in 2009 has been his control. His BB/9 rate (2.73) is his lowest since 2004 and his K/BB ratio (2.63) is his best since 2002, which is great to see and can point to a possible breakout.

Wolf should certainly break the 10 win mark this year with about 150 strikeouts; and if he can stay healthy, the 32 year old will be extremely valuable in the Dodgers hunt for the playoffs. At this point in his career, he is by no means an ace but, Randy Wolf can go out every five days and give his team an excellent chance to win.

A Healthy Back Means a Better Feliz

Going into the 2008 season, the Philadelphia Phillies made a very good move in acquiring Pedro Feliz. The Phillies were in desperate need of a third baseman and Pedro fit perfectly. He is a great defensive third baseman, who also was hitting 20 homeruns consistently at the pitcher friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco. Here are his numbers as a Giant, starting in 2004, his first full major league year.

2004: .276/.305/.485/22 HR/72 Runs/84 RBI/33 BB
2005: .250/.295/.422/20 HR/69 Runs/81 RBI/38 BB
2006: .244/.281/.482/22 HR/75 Runs/98 RBI/33 BB
2007: .253/.290/.418/20 HR/61 Runs/72 RBI/29 BB

Feliz has never been one to hit for average but the power has always been there and he has never played half of his games in a hitters park. The Phillies were expecting great defense and good power from him in 2008, but the power was not exactly at the same level as in years past. Here are his 2008 numbers with the Phillies.

2008: .249/.302/.402/14 HR/43 Runs/58 RBI/33 BB

His SLG%, OPS, and homerun totals were his lowest since the 2002 season. The reason his runs and rbis were down were because of where he batted in the lineup. In San Francisco, Feliz batted in either the 3, 4, or 5 spot and was protected by Barry Bonds or driven home because of Bonds.

Another problem in 2008 was his back. Most of the year he had an injured back, but decided to play through it and opted to wait to undergo surgery. Also, Pedro Feliz's BABIP (.258) was his lowest since 2003. Even though his power numbers were down, his back was hurting him throughout the year, and his BABIP was lower than usual, Feliz had his best OBP since 2004, his best BB% (7.2%) ever, and his best BB/K ratio (.61) ever. Those are excellent signs to see in a hitter and now that Pedro had the off season back surgery, he is putting his new plate discipline together with his old power and the results are showing in 2009.

2009: .307/.373/.433/2 HR/19 runs/ 25 RBI/17 BB

Yes, it's still not even half way through the season, but it is already obvious that the back surgery has helped considerably. His BABIP so far is .341, which is well above his career average, so it should come down, but everything so far points to a very good 2009 for Feliz. He should get back to his 20 homeruns due to his healthy back and the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. Also, Pedro is showing off his new plate discipline by having a 10.2 BB% and .89 BB/K ratio, which are his highest percentages by far and if he can keep that up he will exceed the expectations that the Phillies had for him when they signed him after the 2007 season. This is looking like a career year for Pedro Feliz and he will play a big part in the success of the Phillies the rest of the way.

Crawford Running Wild

In case you haven't noticed, Carl Crawford has gone absolutely crazy on the base paths. Through 47 games, Crawford has a whopping 30 stolen bases. It might be even more remarkable that he hasn't been caught stealing at all. That's right, he's a perfect 30 for 30 on steal attempts so far. The 27 year old is on pace for 101 stolen bases, but is that truly realistic?

2009: .316/.379/.420/1 HR/22 RBI/30 SB/.385 BABIP/0.50 BB/K

Crawford's .385 BABIP will be almost impossible to maintain, it should regress to somewhere around his .333 career BABIP as the season progresses. His batted ball statistics are in line with his career numbers, so it looks like he's simply getting lucky. If his luck turns, Crawford will be on base less which will naturally lead to less steal opportunities.

It's hard to tell when his luck will run out, but there are some peripheral stats that bode well for him. In 2007, Crawford maintained a .375 BABIP for the entire year; if he did it before, why can't he do it again?

Crawford's walk rate is currently the highest of his career at 8.5% which is a significant increase from his 5.1% career rate. His .50 K/BB rate has also increased considerably from his .37 career rate. The overall increase in walks means Crawford is becoming more selective at the plate and not swinging at pitches out of the zone which are harder to turn into hits.

At 27, Carl Crawford is in the prime of his career, he is walking more, and has shown the ability to hold high BABIPs for long periods of time in the past. While I have no doubt his BABIP will regress at least to his .375 2007 mark (and most likely even more), his improved plate discipline should help give him a legitimate shot to steal 100 bases.

Baseball Stalker Fantasy League

Speedy and I are going to start a mid-season Fantasy Baseball League and we are looking for people who will be active. If you are interested in joining our league, email us or leave a comment. We really want to have a good, competitive, and active league.

Thank you and hope you will join.

Fernando Martinez Called Up

With the recent placement of Ryan Church on the disabled list, the New York Mets have decided to call up their best hitting prospect, Fernando Martinez. The Mets have moved Fernando quickly through the minor league system, as shown by the fact he is 20 years old and making his MLB debut. He has always been one of the youngest players at every level he has played at and has held his own throughout all of them. This year is no different at AAA.

2009: 42 games/.291 Batting Average/.337 OBP/.552 SLG/.889 OPS/11 BBs/8 Homeruns/28 RBIs/2 SBs

Those are very good numbers, considering he is still only 20 years old. He started off slow in April, but in May he has been on fire. Posting a .337 avg/.378 OBP/.663 SLG/7 homeruns. He also greatly improved his K% and raised his Line Drive %, which are both very good signs.

Fernando should be playing a lot while Church is on the DL and even though he will most likely head back to AAA when Church returns, this is at least getting his "feet wet". This is the beginning of a very bright future for Fernando Martinez, who, if he stays healthy, should be a future All-Star.

A Small Pitcher with Big Numbers

Baseball America ranked Tim Collins as the 30th best player in Toronto Blue Jays farm system. He has been amazing coming out of the bullpen so far in his minor league career. Here is what he did last year:

2008: 4 - 2/1.98 ERA/.995 WHIP/68.1 Innings Pitched/14 Saves/98 Strikeouts/32 Walks.

Collins went un-drafted coming out of high school, but he did get noticed and eventually signed by Toronto. With those type of numbers you would think someone would have seen this talent and drafted him and he would be higher than 30th on Toronto's prospect list. Well, first of all Tim Collins stands at 5'7 and weighs 155 pounds. Second of all, nobody real knows how or why he is dominating batters. It puzzles a lot of people, but whatever he is doing is certainly working because he is still doing extremely well this year.

2009: 2 - 2/2.62 ERA/1.000 WHIP/24.1 Innings Pitched/43 Strikeouts/10 Walks

So far his ERA and WHIP are higher than last year, but he is still tearing it up. His K/9 this year (16.1) is higher than last year (12.9), which is unbelievable. Also, his K/BB ratio this year (4.30) is higher than last year (3.06). When someone is striking out batters 4 more times than they are walking batters that is outstanding. It will certainly be interesting to see how the rest of this year plays out and how he does at AA, AAA, and hopefully the majors in the future.

Beau Mills - Cleveland's Number 5 Prospect

Yes, Miguel Cabrera is That Good

Through 41 games Miguel Cabrera has torn the cover off the ball. He is currently posting a line of .370/.439/.597 with 9 homeruns and 33 RBI. He's shown in the past that he can be a .300 hitter with 30 homeruns, but can he take his production to the next level and truly become a once-in-a-generation type of hitter?

Let's start with the bad news. His ridiculously high '09 batting average is mostly a product of his .387 BABIP which should regress at least to his .352 career mark, maybe lower. That's it for the bad news.

On the sunny side, Cabrera's batting average has been somewhat hindered by a 50% groundball rate, which is almost 10% higher than his career rate. His K/BB rate is the highest of his career at .89 which shows a more mature approach at the plate than in past years. His homerun/flyball rate is right in line with his career numbers at 19.5%. In 2008, he led the American League with 37 homeruns and finished 3rd with 127 RBI despite a rough first-half numbers largely due to a tough adjustment to his new team and league.

Now 26 years old, Cabrera is just entering his prime and superior peripheral stats suggest he can make a serious run at the triple-crown in 2009 and for years afterward.

Wilkin De La Rosa - Yankee Pitching Prospect

Josh Tomlin - Cleveland Pitching Prospect

Carlos Santana - Cleveland's Number 1 Prospect

Akron Aeros vs. Trenton Thunder: 5/19&20/09

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Clyde and I headed to Waterfront Park to see the Thunder (Yankees AA) take on the prospect-laden Akron Aeros (Indians AA). According to Baseball America, six of Cleveland's top prospects currently reside in Akron, including their #1 prospect, Carlos Santana. Both days were clear and around 60 degrees with mild wind.

Akron:

Nick Weglarz, OF - The Canadian born outfielder went 1-7 with a walk in the series. He swung at the first pitch he saw in four of his at-bats, which is rather odd considering he showed very good plate discipline last year. He didn't strike out but all of his outs were weak infield pop-ups or groundballs.

Beau Mills, 1B - Mills has the reputation of being one of the beat power-hitting prospects in the minors right now. He certainly didn't disappoint when he hit the longest homerun I've ever seen live, well over 400 feet to dead center, against the wind on Wednesday. Overall he went 2-7 with a walk, strikeout, and homerun that still hasn't landed yet.

Carlos Rivero, SS - Rivero was celebrating his 21st birthday on Wednesday, but was quiet throughout the series going 1-7 with 2 walks. He looks like he's still growing into his body at this stage in his career and power should come once that happens.

Carlos Santana, C - The #1 prospect in the Indians organization tore a ball down the left field foul line in his first at-bat driving in the first run of the game. Overall he went 2-8 with a double and 3 RBI. He had no problem hitting from the left or the right side as he blasted hits from both. Even though he only had 2 hits, the ball appeared to jump off his bat, I came into the series somewhat skeptical of him and left a believer. I have little doubt he will be an all-star backstop in short order.

Josh Tomlin, P - The starter for Tuesday's game, Tomlin dominated the Thunder hitters over 6 innings, giving up 7 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, and striking out 8. He mostly used a fastball/12-6 curve combo with the occasional change up mixed in. He kept the ball low and generated a lot of groundballs, especially as he tired and had to go right after hitters. His curveball had a lot of break and he struck out at least 5 of his 8 with it.

Zach Putnam, P - Putnam came in as relief for Tomlin on Tuesday and worked 2 perfect innings while striking out one. The most impressive part was the other 5 out he recorded were all via groundballs. He was easily the best pitcher I saw in the series.

Hector Rondon, P - We got to see Rondon last year at the Futures Game and I wasn't impressed. We saw him again on Wednesday as he went 5 innings, giving up 4 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks while striking out 6. The first thing that stands out is his electric arm, his fastball sat in the low-to-mid-90's, but he didn't use his off speed stuff much. Cleveland tried to move him to relief in order to help them faster, but he struggled out of the bullpen so it looks like he'll remain a starter for now.

Trenton:

Jorge Vazquez, 1B - The Mexican League product has unanimously been Trenton's best hitter thus far. He continued to stay hot, going 3-7 with a homerun and 2 RBI over the series. He lined a few balls right at the outfielders; if he turned on them a little more they would have been easy doubles, maybe triples.

Wilkin De La Rosa, P - One of the Yankees top pitching prospects, De La Rosa went 6.2 innings, giving up 4 hits, 2 runs, and 3 walks while striking out 5 in a solid performance on Tuesday. The only flaws I noticed were poor control, and extreme fly ball tendencies, which will be fine at a pitcher's haven like Trenton but will be a lot more noticeable in the majors. On the bright side, he mixed his pitches well, keeping hitters off balance causing a lot of weak pop-ups and dribbling ground balls.

Not So Fast Mat Gamel...

Last week, Milwaukee called up their best hitting prospect, Mat Gamel. The 23 year old 3rd baseman asserted himself as one of the best bats in the minor leagues in 2008 posting a line of .329/.396/.538 with 19 homeruns and 97 RBI in 507 at-bats in AA. He has certainly proved he can hit at the minor league level, but how well will his game translate to the majors?

To start, lets revisit his minor league numbers:

2007 - 9 HR 60 RBI .300/.376/.472 .365 BABIP .59 BB/K 466 AB
2008 - 19 HR 97 RBI .329/.396/.538 .392 BABIP .50 BB/K 507 AB
2009 - 8 HR 31 RBI .336/.428/.647 .416 BABIP .62 BB/K 119 AB
*BABIP - Batting Average On Balls In Play (FirstInning.com)

There is no doubt that Gamel dominated the minors over the last three years but the most concerning number is his ridiculously high BABIP. The major league average falls around .300 but some players have higher career BABIPs than others depending on their approach. For example, Ichiro has a .356 career BABIP thanks to his superior contact skills.

Gamel is certainly an excellent hitter, but he is definitly no Ichiro, therefore his BABIPs around .400 will certainly fall at the major league level and that means he could see a serious drop in his batting average.

In order to get on base at his near .400 minor league clip, Gamel will have to change his approach at the plate and walk more. He has never had any serious plate discipline issues as his .50 minor league BB/K rate is right on the edge of what we like to see, but it's certainly not great.

As for his defense, Gamel may be the worst fielding 3rd baseman in the majors right now, he has improved a little since his 53 error 2007 season but a position change in the near future is almost gaurenteed. With Bill Hall on a bit of a hot streak, and playing adequate defense at the hot-corner, Gamel might have trouble getting playing time right away.

On the bright side Gamel is only 23 and his power should carry over from the minors enough that he could hit around 25 homeruns annually in the major leagues. However, he will need to reform his approach and be less agressive against major league pitchers. If he can take more pitches and get on base at a higher clip, I have no doubt Gamel will be an all-star. The problem is his adjustment is a difficult one to make, and until he does we won't see a sparkling .300 average or 25 homeruns from him anytime soon.

Santana's Debut

Today, Ervin Santana, of the Los Angeles Angels made his 2009 debut against the Boston Red Sox. Considering the circumstances, the Angels should be excited with how his debut went. Santana's line was 5 innings pitched, 3 earned runs, 7 hits, 5 strikeouts, and 3 walks. He did not factor into the decision of the game.

Santana worked himself out of a couple jams but never let the game get out of hand, which was good to see. He loaded the bases in the 4th inning and was able to strike David Ortiz out with his best slider of the afternoon to end the inning. Santana still has to fully get back into game shape (He labored through the 5th inning) and that will happen with more starts. Some of his pitches looked really good, but for the most part they were average and again, that will come back with some more appearances. Overall, not a bad debut for someone who has been shelved for months. Look to see him build on this first start and get back into All-Star form.

Portland Sea Dogs vs. Trenton Thunder: 5/12&13/09

On Tuesday and Wednesday we went to Waterfront Park to see the Trenton Thunder (Yankees AA affiliate) take on the Portland Sea Dogs (Red Sox AA affiliate). If you are not familiar with Waterfront Park, you should know that while it's one of the nicest atmospheres to watch a ball game, it's deep dimensions and the wind that blows off of the Delaware River makes it almost impossible to hit homeruns. In the 30+ games I've seen there over the last 3 years, I think I've seen 5 homeruns. Here were some highlights from the series...

Trenton:

Alan Horne, SP - Horne was ranked #5 in the Yankees farm system by Baseball America in 2008 before injuring his arm and dropping to #25 in 2009. He only made it through 3 innings due to another arm injury. He cruised through the 1st inning but began wincing soon after that.

Reegie Corona, SS - He walked three times and hit a single and a double in his 8 plate appearances over the two-day span. The 22 year old looked extremely dialed in at the plate, his defense didn't disappoint either as he turned a few tough balls in outs.

Colin Curtis, OF - Curtis fell victim to Trenton's strong winds that knocked two long fly balls down at the warning track. Overall, he was quiet, only going 1-8 in the series.

Jorge Vazquez, 1B - The first thing Clyde and I said to each other was "wow, this guy is enormous!" Vazquez, who came over from the Mexican league, is listed at 225 pounds but looks much closer to 240. Weight aside, he can hit, going 2-8 with 3 RBI in the series, all while making some pretty nice defensive plays at first base for a man that size.

Ryan Pope, SP - The starter for the Wednesday game. Pope pitched an absolute gem, going 7 innings while only allowing one hit, striking out 6, and walking nobody. His arm did not appear to be overpowering but his command of his fastball, curve, and changeup was strong. However he was certainly helped by the wind keeping the balls in the park; on a different night he might have let up 3 or 4 homeruns.

Portland:

Junichi Tazawa, SP - After getting a lot of publicity in spring training, Tazawa has not disappointed so far. He dominated hitters, going 6 innings, striking out 7, walking 1, and scattering 3 hits in one of the best pitching performances I've ever seen live. He had a mid-90's fastball that hitters looked late on all night, and also mixed in a curve ball and splitter - both looked excellent. Every hitter he faced looked over matched at one point or another in their at-bat which showed as he induced a number of weak infield pop-ups and groundballs. The 22 year old held his velocity throughout the game while displaying fantastic command. I would not be surprised if Boston called him up at some point this season.

Lars Anderson, 1B - Anderson, who ranked #16 on our top 100 prospects list this spring has been off to a rough start, only hitting .230 with a few homeruns. Anderson struck out twice and walked 3 times in the first game. He went 1-4 in the second game. Anderson showed a lot of patience at the plate and got unlucky as he lined a few balls right to the defenders. Regardless, he should be an all-star some day.

Argenis Diaz, SS - Certainly known more for his glove than his bat, Diaz struggled mightily at the plate as he went 0-6 with a walk. He didn't strike out at all, but he also didn't hit anything besides weak ground balls. He managed to hit .286 last year split between A+ and AA but had little power. If he can't hit in the majors he will most likely be a fringe utility player. if he does find a way to hit, he could very easily win a gold glove.

Other Notables: Reid Engel (POR) hit the only homerun of the series, which went well over 400 feet...Bubba Bell (POR) made a few brilliant defensive plays in center field...Justin Snyder (TRE) only played on Wednesday but he went 1-1 with 3 walks...Eduadro Nunez (TRE) hit lead-off both days and went 2-9 with 4 strikeouts and a stolen base.