Friday, July 31, 2009
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Wilmington Blue Rocks vs. Lynchburg Hillcats: 7/28&29/09
We headed down to Delaware to see the Wilmington Blue Rocks (Royals A+) face the Lynchburg Hillcats (Pirates A+). The Blue Rocks are especially prospect-laden with 1st round picks Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer anchoring a potent roster with includes 6 of The Royals top 15 Prospects.
Lynchburg:
Jose De Los Santos - The Hillcats lead-off hitter went 5-10 with a run and a stolen base over the two game
series. As a 24 year old in A+, he probably won't amount to much in the big leagues but he showed solid contact skills, and good speed.
Matt Hague - The Pirates 23rd best prospect according to Baseball America, Hague went 2-9 with a stolen base and two strikeouts. He lined out hard and just missed a homerun to dead center but the stolen base isn't really evidence of his speed; the Wilmington catcher was absolutely horrible throwing out runners.
Jeff Locke - The prize of the Nate McLouth trade, pitched a gem took a perfect ga
me into the 6th inning before giving up a homerun which ended up being his only blemish as his final line was 6 inning pitched, 7 strikeouts, 1 hit, 1 earned run, and no walks. He had an excellent 3 pitch mix highlighted by his superb changeup which he would throw in any count. His fastball had good movement but seemed to lack velocity and his curveball had sharp, almost slider-like break at the end, but thrown considerably slower. He had excellent control of all of his pitches and kept almost every hitter off balance.
Wilmington:
Eric Hosmer
- The 3rd overall pick in the 2008 draft went 0-8 with no strikeouts. It was a rough series for Hosmer who grounded out in all but one of his at-bats. On the upside, he is one of the youngest players in the league at only 19 years old, so he has plenty of time to develop into the star that he was touted to be. He made a bunch of excellent plays at first base and should be a perennial gold glove candidate.
Mike Moustakas - The Royals top prospect 3-7 with a homerun and a double. Moustakas
' most noticeable characteristic is his muscular frame, he couples his strength with a nice, compact swing which should allow him to hit for both power and average. Jeff Locke made him look silly in his first at-bat which ended with Moustakas flailing on one knee. He had a top-notch arm from third base and made a few nice defensive plays.
Danny Duffy - After being perfect through the first three innings Duffy fell apart in the fourth and left with an injury. His line ended up at 3.1 innings, 5 hits, 4 earned runs, 1 walk and three strikeouts. Over the first three innings he was absolutely dominant, his fastball sat in low 90's with good movement, his curveball was excellent and sat in the low-to-mid 70's with sharp 12-6 break, and his changeup had nice fade to it and fooled a batter so bad that his bat flew into the the dugout. As a lefty with three potential plus pitches Duffy could be a potential ace, check out the video in the post above above of him striking Matt Hague.
Videos of Moustakas and Hosmer will be available soon.
Lynchburg:
Jose De Los Santos - The Hillcats lead-off hitter went 5-10 with a run and a stolen base over the two game
series. As a 24 year old in A+, he probably won't amount to much in the big leagues but he showed solid contact skills, and good speed.Matt Hague - The Pirates 23rd best prospect according to Baseball America, Hague went 2-9 with a stolen base and two strikeouts. He lined out hard and just missed a homerun to dead center but the stolen base isn't really evidence of his speed; the Wilmington catcher was absolutely horrible throwing out runners.
Jeff Locke - The prize of the Nate McLouth trade, pitched a gem took a perfect ga
me into the 6th inning before giving up a homerun which ended up being his only blemish as his final line was 6 inning pitched, 7 strikeouts, 1 hit, 1 earned run, and no walks. He had an excellent 3 pitch mix highlighted by his superb changeup which he would throw in any count. His fastball had good movement but seemed to lack velocity and his curveball had sharp, almost slider-like break at the end, but thrown considerably slower. He had excellent control of all of his pitches and kept almost every hitter off balance.Wilmington:
Eric Hosmer
- The 3rd overall pick in the 2008 draft went 0-8 with no strikeouts. It was a rough series for Hosmer who grounded out in all but one of his at-bats. On the upside, he is one of the youngest players in the league at only 19 years old, so he has plenty of time to develop into the star that he was touted to be. He made a bunch of excellent plays at first base and should be a perennial gold glove candidate.Mike Moustakas - The Royals top prospect 3-7 with a homerun and a double. Moustakas
' most noticeable characteristic is his muscular frame, he couples his strength with a nice, compact swing which should allow him to hit for both power and average. Jeff Locke made him look silly in his first at-bat which ended with Moustakas flailing on one knee. He had a top-notch arm from third base and made a few nice defensive plays.Danny Duffy - After being perfect through the first three innings Duffy fell apart in the fourth and left with an injury. His line ended up at 3.1 innings, 5 hits, 4 earned runs, 1 walk and three strikeouts. Over the first three innings he was absolutely dominant, his fastball sat in low 90's with good movement, his curveball was excellent and sat in the low-to-mid 70's with sharp 12-6 break, and his changeup had nice fade to it and fooled a batter so bad that his bat flew into the the dugout. As a lefty with three potential plus pitches Duffy could be a potential ace, check out the video in the post above above of him striking Matt Hague.
Videos of Moustakas and Hosmer will be available soon.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Whats New
Hey Everybody!
We are now on Twitter! you can follow us at www.twitter.com/baseballstalker. We'll be at baseball games all day tomorrow (7/29) tweeting away so make sure to check it out.
We've also redone the site a little bit--be sure to check out the prospect videos on the right-hand side.
New game summaries involving top prospects Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Danny Duffy, Jesus Montero and more should be up by Saturday along with a few new articles next week.
Thanks!
We are now on Twitter! you can follow us at www.twitter.com/baseballstalker. We'll be at baseball games all day tomorrow (7/29) tweeting away so make sure to check it out.
We've also redone the site a little bit--be sure to check out the prospect videos on the right-hand side.
New game summaries involving top prospects Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Danny Duffy, Jesus Montero and more should be up by Saturday along with a few new articles next week.
Thanks!
Monday, July 20, 2009
Portland Sea Dogs vs. Trenton Thunder: 7/18/09
We decided to go to the game at the last minute on Thursday and missed the first inning, but we were treated to an excellent pitching performance by Junichi Tazawa.
Trenton:
Reegie Corona - The speedy shortstop went 2-4 with a double and made a few nice defensive plays. He has excellent range and a pretty good arm, If he can continue to develop at the plate he could be a solid big leaguer.
Portland:
Junichi Tazawa - Tazawa went 5 innings giving up 5 hits and 1 run while striking out 4 and walking none. His fastball sat between 90-91 mph throughout the game and ramped it up to 93 a few times with good movement. His curve was an absolute gem, sitting around 72-75 mph with excellent depth. He also showed a pretty nice mid-80's splitter, but most impressive, was his feel for pitching, he showed excellent command of his pitches, and 3 out of his strikeouts ended with the batter flailing on one knee.
Josh Reddick - We missed Reddick when we saw Portland earlier in the year as he was on the DL. He didn't disappoint, going 1-3 with a double, two walks, and an RBI, His double banged off of the wall in left center and came excruciatingly close to being a homerun.
Trenton:
Reegie Corona - The speedy shortstop went 2-4 with a double and made a few nice defensive plays. He has excellent range and a pretty good arm, If he can continue to develop at the plate he could be a solid big leaguer.
Portland:
Junichi Tazawa - Tazawa went 5 innings giving up 5 hits and 1 run while striking out 4 and walking none. His fastball sat between 90-91 mph throughout the game and ramped it up to 93 a few times with good movement. His curve was an absolute gem, sitting around 72-75 mph with excellent depth. He also showed a pretty nice mid-80's splitter, but most impressive, was his feel for pitching, he showed excellent command of his pitches, and 3 out of his strikeouts ended with the batter flailing on one knee.
Josh Reddick - We missed Reddick when we saw Portland earlier in the year as he was on the DL. He didn't disappoint, going 1-3 with a double, two walks, and an RBI, His double banged off of the wall in left center and came excruciatingly close to being a homerun.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Eastern League All-Star Game: 7/15/09
Yesterday Clyde and I attended the Eastern League All-Star Game at Waterfront Park in Trenton. After a lackluster Homerun Derby, the actual game was delightful, The Southern Division ended up winning 4-3.
Northern Division:
Rene Tosoni - Coming off a Futures Game appearance where he was awarded MVP honors over the weekend, Tosoni a disappointing game a the plate going 0-4 with a walk a run scored, and a strikeout.
Lars Anderson - B
oston's top prospect played the second half of the game going 0-2 with a strikeout. He looked uncomfortable both in the Homerun derby (where he hit only 1 homerun) and during the game where he seemed off-balance a lot. He smoked a ball that would have been a double if not for an excellent defensive play by the center fielder.
Jesus Montero - Montero who was an injury replacement, played the second half of the game and showed that despite only being 19 years old he could handle the best that AA had
to offer, going 2-2, with one of his hits being of the infield variety. He runs very well for his size and appears athletic. Unfortunately, he still looked very poor defensively, runners were a perfect 4-4 in stolen base attempts against him in only 4 innings behind the plate.
Most of his throwing problems seem to stem from a varying arm angle, sometimes he correctly cocks his arm behind his head before releasing the ball, generally resulting in a good throw. Other times he almost seems to wind-mill the ball to second base, usually resulting in the ball bouncing before it reaches the second baseman or flying into the outfield. I don't think his throwing troubles are due to lack of talent, just inconsistency.
Zach McAllister - The starter for the North, McAllister pitched 1 inning and gave up 1 hit. He seemed to command his pitches well, and breezed through the inning.
Southern Division:
Miguel Abreu - The All-Star Game MVP went 2-4 with 2 stolen bases and 2 runs. He ran very well and also got excellent jumps on his stolen bases He also made two nice defensive plays at second base. There have been some questions about his plate discipline and he's old for his level at age 24 but contact skills and speed could get him to the big leagues.
Carlos Santana - Santana went 0-1 and got hit by a pitch in his only two plate appearances of the game. He showed off some pop in the homerun derby hitting his only two homeruns well out of the stadium.
Nick Weglarz - Weglarz went 0-2 with a stolen base and fielder's choice. He showed off better speed than I expected; he will never much of a regular base stealing threat but he's certainly not a base-clogger.
Michael Taylor - The first thing I noticed about Taylor is that he's absolutely jacked, but despite all of his muscle mass, he still runs well--similar to Elijah Dukes. Taylor went 1-4 with a walk and a strikeout. He hit a long fly ball his first time up which brought the left fielder all the way back to the warning track.
Beau Mills - Of all of the players, I was most excited to see Mills who hit a monster shot last time he was in Trenton. It's a shame he wasn't in the Homerun Derby as I believe he would have won easily. Mills ended up going 1-4 with a walk and a strikeout, he was also caught stealing.
Joe Savery - The Southern Division starter matched his counterpart in McAllister giving up 1 hit over 1 inning. Unlike McAllister, Savery flashed a disgusting changeup a few difference times. His commanded appeared to be solid and his fastball looked strong.
Northern Division:
Rene Tosoni - Coming off a Futures Game appearance where he was awarded MVP honors over the weekend, Tosoni a disappointing game a the plate going 0-4 with a walk a run scored, and a strikeout.
Lars Anderson - B
oston's top prospect played the second half of the game going 0-2 with a strikeout. He looked uncomfortable both in the Homerun derby (where he hit only 1 homerun) and during the game where he seemed off-balance a lot. He smoked a ball that would have been a double if not for an excellent defensive play by the center fielder.Jesus Montero - Montero who was an injury replacement, played the second half of the game and showed that despite only being 19 years old he could handle the best that AA had
to offer, going 2-2, with one of his hits being of the infield variety. He runs very well for his size and appears athletic. Unfortunately, he still looked very poor defensively, runners were a perfect 4-4 in stolen base attempts against him in only 4 innings behind the plate.Most of his throwing problems seem to stem from a varying arm angle, sometimes he correctly cocks his arm behind his head before releasing the ball, generally resulting in a good throw. Other times he almost seems to wind-mill the ball to second base, usually resulting in the ball bouncing before it reaches the second baseman or flying into the outfield. I don't think his throwing troubles are due to lack of talent, just inconsistency.
Zach McAllister - The starter for the North, McAllister pitched 1 inning and gave up 1 hit. He seemed to command his pitches well, and breezed through the inning.
Southern Division:
Miguel Abreu - The All-Star Game MVP went 2-4 with 2 stolen bases and 2 runs. He ran very well and also got excellent jumps on his stolen bases He also made two nice defensive plays at second base. There have been some questions about his plate discipline and he's old for his level at age 24 but contact skills and speed could get him to the big leagues.
Carlos Santana - Santana went 0-1 and got hit by a pitch in his only two plate appearances of the game. He showed off some pop in the homerun derby hitting his only two homeruns well out of the stadium.
Nick Weglarz - Weglarz went 0-2 with a stolen base and fielder's choice. He showed off better speed than I expected; he will never much of a regular base stealing threat but he's certainly not a base-clogger.
Michael Taylor - The first thing I noticed about Taylor is that he's absolutely jacked, but despite all of his muscle mass, he still runs well--similar to Elijah Dukes. Taylor went 1-4 with a walk and a strikeout. He hit a long fly ball his first time up which brought the left fielder all the way back to the warning track.
Beau Mills - Of all of the players, I was most excited to see Mills who hit a monster shot last time he was in Trenton. It's a shame he wasn't in the Homerun Derby as I believe he would have won easily. Mills ended up going 1-4 with a walk and a strikeout, he was also caught stealing.
Joe Savery - The Southern Division starter matched his counterpart in McAllister giving up 1 hit over 1 inning. Unlike McAllister, Savery flashed a disgusting changeup a few difference times. His commanded appeared to be solid and his fastball looked strong.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Bowie Baysox vs Trenton Thunder: 6/3/09
On a cloudy Wednesday night, Clyde and I headed over to Waterfront Park to watch the Baltimore's AA affiliate, the Bowie Baysox, take on the Yankees AA affiliate, the Trenton Thunder. Contrary to The Weather Channel's beliefs, the rain held off and we were able to get the entire game in.
For the first time in my 30+ trips to Waterfront Park, the wind was blowing out. If you haven't read our Trenton Thunder write-ups before, you should know that strong winds blowing off the Delaware River usually keep the baseball in the yard. This coupled with rather deep dimensions makes it quite a struggle to hit homeruns.
Bowie:
Mike Costanzo, 3B - The former Phillies prospect had a solid night going 1-4 with a double and a strikeout. He also hit two long fly balls to left field, which may have been homeruns in some stadiums. Unfortunately the 25 year old third baseman will need to make more contact if he wants to see the majors; he struck out 159 times in 483 at-bats last year.
Unfortunately, Costanzo was the only notable player on the Baysox. They only managed 3 hits all night. Aside from Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe who pitched on previous days, Bowie had literally no prospects on their team.
Trenton:
WIlkin De la Rosa, P - This was my third time seeing de la Rosa pitch this season, and it was easily his most impressive start. In 6 innings he let up 2 hits, walked two, and punched out 8 batters, while allowing no runs and picking up the win. He generated a lot of groundballs as evidenced by his 5:3 groundout to airout ratio. There were a few times where he dialed his fastball up into the mid-90's and completely overpowered batters. His breaking ball and changeup both looked sharp as well.
Jesus Montero, C - The 19 year old made his first ever appearance in AA, after annihilating A+. He went 1-4 with a walk and an RBI on the night, singling his second time up, absolutely rocketing a ball between the shortstop and third baseman. Montero made a few nice blocks behind the plate, and played a bunt perfectly, but his throws to second were both slow and inaccurate, at 6'5 there are some concerns whether or not he can stay at catcher down the road. He was stuck out by Robert Valido, a shortstop who pitched an inning for whatever reason, with the bases loaded, other than that he had a great debut, especially when you consider most of his competition is 3 or 4 years older.
Colin Curtis, OF - Curtis who is a fringe prospect, hit a long homerun to right-centerfield his first time up. He went 1-3 with the homerun, RBI, and a strikeout before having to leave the game after being hit by a pitch.
Edwar Gonzalez, OF - He went 2-4 with a triple, 3 RBI, and a run. He also hit a long flyball to right field that would be gone in most ball parks.
Kanekoa Texeira, P - Texeira pitched 3 shutout innings, giving up 1 hit, striking out 2, walking none and getting the save. All of his outs (strikeouts aside) came via the groundball.
Trenton won 8-0
For the first time in my 30+ trips to Waterfront Park, the wind was blowing out. If you haven't read our Trenton Thunder write-ups before, you should know that strong winds blowing off the Delaware River usually keep the baseball in the yard. This coupled with rather deep dimensions makes it quite a struggle to hit homeruns.
Bowie:
Mike Costanzo, 3B - The former Phillies prospect had a solid night going 1-4 with a double and a strikeout. He also hit two long fly balls to left field, which may have been homeruns in some stadiums. Unfortunately the 25 year old third baseman will need to make more contact if he wants to see the majors; he struck out 159 times in 483 at-bats last year.
Unfortunately, Costanzo was the only notable player on the Baysox. They only managed 3 hits all night. Aside from Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe who pitched on previous days, Bowie had literally no prospects on their team.
Trenton:
WIlkin De la Rosa, P - This was my third time seeing de la Rosa pitch this season, and it was easily his most impressive start. In 6 innings he let up 2 hits, walked two, and punched out 8 batters, while allowing no runs and picking up the win. He generated a lot of groundballs as evidenced by his 5:3 groundout to airout ratio. There were a few times where he dialed his fastball up into the mid-90's and completely overpowered batters. His breaking ball and changeup both looked sharp as well.
Jesus Montero, C - The 19 year old made his first ever appearance in AA, after annihilating A+. He went 1-4 with a walk and an RBI on the night, singling his second time up, absolutely rocketing a ball between the shortstop and third baseman. Montero made a few nice blocks behind the plate, and played a bunt perfectly, but his throws to second were both slow and inaccurate, at 6'5 there are some concerns whether or not he can stay at catcher down the road. He was stuck out by Robert Valido, a shortstop who pitched an inning for whatever reason, with the bases loaded, other than that he had a great debut, especially when you consider most of his competition is 3 or 4 years older.
Colin Curtis, OF - Curtis who is a fringe prospect, hit a long homerun to right-centerfield his first time up. He went 1-3 with the homerun, RBI, and a strikeout before having to leave the game after being hit by a pitch.
Edwar Gonzalez, OF - He went 2-4 with a triple, 3 RBI, and a run. He also hit a long flyball to right field that would be gone in most ball parks.
Kanekoa Texeira, P - Texeira pitched 3 shutout innings, giving up 1 hit, striking out 2, walking none and getting the save. All of his outs (strikeouts aside) came via the groundball.
Trenton won 8-0
Tommy Hanson Called Up
Last night Atlanta Braves fans and fantasy baseball owners around the country got their wish, when top prospect Tommy Hanson was finally called up to the majors. Since the Braves do not feel Tom Glavine get the job done, it's finally Hanson's time to make an impact in the major leagues. Everyone was wondering when he would be called up because he has been so dominant in the minor leagues.
2008 A+: 3 - 1/0.90 ERA/0.65 WHIP/40 innings/49 SO/11 BB/11.03 K/9
2008 AA: 8 - 4/3.03 ERA/1.13 WHIP/98 innings/114 SO/41 BB/10.47 K/9
2009 AAA: 3 - 3/1.49 ERA/0.86 WHIP/66.1 innings/ 90 SO/17 BB/ 12.21 K/9
Hanson pitched extremely well in A+ and AA in 2008, but in 2009 he took it to another level. His K/9 and K/BB went up and, his ERA and WHIP dropped dramatically. Moving up to AAA did not slow him down at all, he actually improved, so the Braves are hoping that his next transition goes as smoothly as the one from AA to AAA.
In his prime, Hanson could have as many as four plus pitches in his mid 90's fastball, 12-6 curve, changeup and slider. He only began using a slider midway through last season, but it improved rapidly over the second half and throughout the Arizona Fall League; now it may be his best pitch. With such a vast and advanced repertoire and control that took a giant step forward in 2008, should have less trouble than most young pitchers do as rookies. He doesn't induce a ton of groundballs, but that will play fine in Atlanta.
Hanson should be up for the rest of the year, and there is little doubt that he can succeed against major league hitters. The 22 year old is Atlanta's the future ace and his career begins on Saturday against the Brewers. He has the talent to be a perennial all-star and possibly even more.
2008 A+: 3 - 1/0.90 ERA/0.65 WHIP/40 innings/49 SO/11 BB/11.03 K/9
2008 AA: 8 - 4/3.03 ERA/1.13 WHIP/98 innings/114 SO/41 BB/10.47 K/9
2009 AAA: 3 - 3/1.49 ERA/0.86 WHIP/66.1 innings/ 90 SO/17 BB/ 12.21 K/9
Hanson pitched extremely well in A+ and AA in 2008, but in 2009 he took it to another level. His K/9 and K/BB went up and, his ERA and WHIP dropped dramatically. Moving up to AAA did not slow him down at all, he actually improved, so the Braves are hoping that his next transition goes as smoothly as the one from AA to AAA.
In his prime, Hanson could have as many as four plus pitches in his mid 90's fastball, 12-6 curve, changeup and slider. He only began using a slider midway through last season, but it improved rapidly over the second half and throughout the Arizona Fall League; now it may be his best pitch. With such a vast and advanced repertoire and control that took a giant step forward in 2008, should have less trouble than most young pitchers do as rookies. He doesn't induce a ton of groundballs, but that will play fine in Atlanta.
Hanson should be up for the rest of the year, and there is little doubt that he can succeed against major league hitters. The 22 year old is Atlanta's the future ace and his career begins on Saturday against the Brewers. He has the talent to be a perennial all-star and possibly even more.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Rising Stars - Brett Wallace
With the 13th overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft, the St Louis Cardinals, feeling the need for an impact bat and heir to Troy Glaus at third base chose 3rd baseman, Brett Wallace out of Arizona State. Going into the draft, Wallace had the reputation of an extremely polished hitter who could move quickly through the system. So far he hasn't disappointed, Posting a line of .282/.376/.426 with 7 home runs and 23 RBI to date, split between AA and AAA.
Wallace has had some problems with strikeouts in the past, but he has strong enough contact skills and plate discipline that his whiffs won't be a problem and may decrease as he becomes more acclimated with pro ball. In his prime he should hit for both excellent power and average; he has an excellent chance to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter with 30-40 home runs and at least 100 RBI.
The 22 year old has struggled mightily with his defense at the hot corner. At some point in his career, he will need to move to first base, which could be tough as it is occupied by arguably the best player in the game in Albert Pujols. He is also a below average runner and may have trouble keeping the agility needed to play third base in the short-term.
None of Wallace's numbers are eye popping, but we have to take into account his success at AAA when most of his peers are still at A+. The Cardinals' current 3rd baseman, Troy Glaus, is still recovering from off season surgery and his replacements have been sub-par to say the least. Wallace may get called up this season if Brian Barden and David Freese, don't shape up. If Brett Wallace produces, Glaus, Freese, and Barden will all be looking for new jobs next winter, and the Arizona State product will have the job locked down for a long time.
Wallace has had some problems with strikeouts in the past, but he has strong enough contact skills and plate discipline that his whiffs won't be a problem and may decrease as he becomes more acclimated with pro ball. In his prime he should hit for both excellent power and average; he has an excellent chance to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter with 30-40 home runs and at least 100 RBI.
The 22 year old has struggled mightily with his defense at the hot corner. At some point in his career, he will need to move to first base, which could be tough as it is occupied by arguably the best player in the game in Albert Pujols. He is also a below average runner and may have trouble keeping the agility needed to play third base in the short-term.
None of Wallace's numbers are eye popping, but we have to take into account his success at AAA when most of his peers are still at A+. The Cardinals' current 3rd baseman, Troy Glaus, is still recovering from off season surgery and his replacements have been sub-par to say the least. Wallace may get called up this season if Brian Barden and David Freese, don't shape up. If Brett Wallace produces, Glaus, Freese, and Barden will all be looking for new jobs next winter, and the Arizona State product will have the job locked down for a long time.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Kendry Morales: All-Star?
After defecting from Cuba in 2005, Kendry Morales looks like he's finally becoming the player everyone thought he would be. The 25 year old is currently on pace for 25 homeruns and 100 RBI, with a little luck he could be on his way to his first all-star game. Here is his line to date:
175 AB / .280/.332/.503 / 8 HR / 30 RBI / 7.9% BB% / .303 BABIP
None of Morales' peripheral stats are way out of line; his .45 BB/K rate is a hair below average but nothing to be too worried about. His .306 BABIP is right in line with the major league average and his .503 SLG shows he's been hitting with some power.
While he's been old for every level, Morales' track record is outstanding. He has never hit below .300 at any minor league level. Morales has also shown solid power as he has hit at least 15 homeruns at every level. His walk rate has been inconsitent, but he has never had contact troubles.
Morales' only noteworthy flaw has been his inconsitency, he goes though tremedous slumps and hot streaks, but the Angels have stuck with him through thick and thin. The season is only 1/4 done, and we still don't know how well he will translate his talent to full major league campaign, but either way Kendry Morales should be an above-average contributer with the potential to be even more if he can improve his consistency.
175 AB / .280/.332/.503 / 8 HR / 30 RBI / 7.9% BB% / .303 BABIP
None of Morales' peripheral stats are way out of line; his .45 BB/K rate is a hair below average but nothing to be too worried about. His .306 BABIP is right in line with the major league average and his .503 SLG shows he's been hitting with some power.
While he's been old for every level, Morales' track record is outstanding. He has never hit below .300 at any minor league level. Morales has also shown solid power as he has hit at least 15 homeruns at every level. His walk rate has been inconsitent, but he has never had contact troubles.
Morales' only noteworthy flaw has been his inconsitency, he goes though tremedous slumps and hot streaks, but the Angels have stuck with him through thick and thin. The season is only 1/4 done, and we still don't know how well he will translate his talent to full major league campaign, but either way Kendry Morales should be an above-average contributer with the potential to be even more if he can improve his consistency.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Zach Duke?!?
Ten starts into 2009 and Zach Duke is cruisin' . The 26 year old who is 5-4 with a 2.75 ERA, appears poised to make the first all-star game of his career. Yes, that's right, the same Zach Duke who went 18-37 in the years after his magical 2005 season when he burst onto the scene, going 8-2 with a sparkling 1.81 ERA in 14 starts. Here are his '09 numbers to date:
72 IP / 5-4 / 2.75 ERA / 42 SO / 17 BB / 1.11 WHIP / .268 BABIP / 75.9% LOB%
One of the driving forces behind his fantastic ERA has been his K/9 rate. While its still pathetic, it's sitting a 5.3 which is up from his 4.6 career K/9. Duke has kept his walks in line with his career numbers, at around 2.4 per 9 innings. The outlier is his .5 HR/9 rate which will be extremely hard to maintain for an entire season.
Duke has a discouraging batted ball trend that will not bode well with his low HR/9 rate. After inducing 51.1% groundballs in 2006, Duke's GB% has dropped each year and now sits at 45.5% for the '09 campaign. His flyball rate has increased each year from a tidy 26.4% in 2005 up to 35.5% in 2009--and more flyballs means more homeruns.
The bottom line is Duke has some fatal career trends that, with a little more time, will most likely prove to be the undoing to a brilliant first quarter of baseball. When you throw in a .267 BABIP which is nowhere close to his career .324 mark,you can be almost certain that Zach Duke will revert to his former ways, maybe worse.
72 IP / 5-4 / 2.75 ERA / 42 SO / 17 BB / 1.11 WHIP / .268 BABIP / 75.9% LOB%
One of the driving forces behind his fantastic ERA has been his K/9 rate. While its still pathetic, it's sitting a 5.3 which is up from his 4.6 career K/9. Duke has kept his walks in line with his career numbers, at around 2.4 per 9 innings. The outlier is his .5 HR/9 rate which will be extremely hard to maintain for an entire season.
Duke has a discouraging batted ball trend that will not bode well with his low HR/9 rate. After inducing 51.1% groundballs in 2006, Duke's GB% has dropped each year and now sits at 45.5% for the '09 campaign. His flyball rate has increased each year from a tidy 26.4% in 2005 up to 35.5% in 2009--and more flyballs means more homeruns.
The bottom line is Duke has some fatal career trends that, with a little more time, will most likely prove to be the undoing to a brilliant first quarter of baseball. When you throw in a .267 BABIP which is nowhere close to his career .324 mark,you can be almost certain that Zach Duke will revert to his former ways, maybe worse.
Friday, May 29, 2009
A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing
This year there have been many outstanding pitchers and one who is flying under the radar is Randy Wolf. Last night Wolf had another very good outing for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as he picked up the win going 7 innings against the Chicago Cubs allowing one earned run, one walk, and striking out 7. Wolf only allowed 2 extra base hits and only 2 fly ball outs, meaning that the rest of the outs were via groundball or strikeouts, which is a fantastic sign. Going in to last night's game this is what he has done.
2009: 10 GS/62.2 IP/2-1/3.02 ERA/1.12 WHIP/50 Ks/19 BBs
Before last nights game Wolf ranked 10th in the NL in ERA and last night he lowered it even more. He uses big slow curveball, to set up his 90 MPH fastball and vice versa, which leaves batters off balance and leads to more strikeouts. He is an extreme flyball pitcher (45.6%), but that should play fine in the vast outfields of Dodger Stadium. Wolf's true improvement in 2009 has been his control. His BB/9 rate (2.73) is his lowest since 2004 and his K/BB ratio (2.63) is his best since 2002, which is great to see and can point to a possible breakout.
Wolf should certainly break the 10 win mark this year with about 150 strikeouts; and if he can stay healthy, the 32 year old will be extremely valuable in the Dodgers hunt for the playoffs. At this point in his career, he is by no means an ace but, Randy Wolf can go out every five days and give his team an excellent chance to win.
2009: 10 GS/62.2 IP/2-1/3.02 ERA/1.12 WHIP/50 Ks/19 BBs
Before last nights game Wolf ranked 10th in the NL in ERA and last night he lowered it even more. He uses big slow curveball, to set up his 90 MPH fastball and vice versa, which leaves batters off balance and leads to more strikeouts. He is an extreme flyball pitcher (45.6%), but that should play fine in the vast outfields of Dodger Stadium. Wolf's true improvement in 2009 has been his control. His BB/9 rate (2.73) is his lowest since 2004 and his K/BB ratio (2.63) is his best since 2002, which is great to see and can point to a possible breakout.
Wolf should certainly break the 10 win mark this year with about 150 strikeouts; and if he can stay healthy, the 32 year old will be extremely valuable in the Dodgers hunt for the playoffs. At this point in his career, he is by no means an ace but, Randy Wolf can go out every five days and give his team an excellent chance to win.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
A Healthy Back Means a Better Feliz
Going into the 2008 season, the Philadelphia Phillies made a very good move in acquiring Pedro Feliz. The Phillies were in desperate need of a third baseman and Pedro fit perfectly. He is a great defensive third baseman, who also was hitting 20 homeruns consistently at the pitcher friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco. Here are his numbers as a Giant, starting in 2004, his first full major league year.
2004: .276/.305/.485/22 HR/72 Runs/84 RBI/33 BB
2005: .250/.295/.422/20 HR/69 Runs/81 RBI/38 BB
2006: .244/.281/.482/22 HR/75 Runs/98 RBI/33 BB
2007: .253/.290/.418/20 HR/61 Runs/72 RBI/29 BB
Feliz has never been one to hit for average but the power has always been there and he has never played half of his games in a hitters park. The Phillies were expecting great defense and good power from him in 2008, but the power was not exactly at the same level as in years past. Here are his 2008 numbers with the Phillies.
2008: .249/.302/.402/14 HR/43 Runs/58 RBI/33 BB
His SLG%, OPS, and homerun totals were his lowest since the 2002 season. The reason his runs and rbis were down were because of where he batted in the lineup. In San Francisco, Feliz batted in either the 3, 4, or 5 spot and was protected by Barry Bonds or driven home because of Bonds.
Another problem in 2008 was his back. Most of the year he had an injured back, but decided to play through it and opted to wait to undergo surgery. Also, Pedro Feliz's BABIP (.258) was his lowest since 2003. Even though his power numbers were down, his back was hurting him throughout the year, and his BABIP was lower than usual, Feliz had his best OBP since 2004, his best BB% (7.2%) ever, and his best BB/K ratio (.61) ever. Those are excellent signs to see in a hitter and now that Pedro had the off season back surgery, he is putting his new plate discipline together with his old power and the results are showing in 2009.
2009: .307/.373/.433/2 HR/19 runs/ 25 RBI/17 BB
Yes, it's still not even half way through the season, but it is already obvious that the back surgery has helped considerably. His BABIP so far is .341, which is well above his career average, so it should come down, but everything so far points to a very good 2009 for Feliz. He should get back to his 20 homeruns due to his healthy back and the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. Also, Pedro is showing off his new plate discipline by having a 10.2 BB% and .89 BB/K ratio, which are his highest percentages by far and if he can keep that up he will exceed the expectations that the Phillies had for him when they signed him after the 2007 season. This is looking like a career year for Pedro Feliz and he will play a big part in the success of the Phillies the rest of the way.
2004: .276/.305/.485/22 HR/72 Runs/84 RBI/33 BB
2005: .250/.295/.422/20 HR/69 Runs/81 RBI/38 BB
2006: .244/.281/.482/22 HR/75 Runs/98 RBI/33 BB
2007: .253/.290/.418/20 HR/61 Runs/72 RBI/29 BB
Feliz has never been one to hit for average but the power has always been there and he has never played half of his games in a hitters park. The Phillies were expecting great defense and good power from him in 2008, but the power was not exactly at the same level as in years past. Here are his 2008 numbers with the Phillies.
2008: .249/.302/.402/14 HR/43 Runs/58 RBI/33 BB
His SLG%, OPS, and homerun totals were his lowest since the 2002 season. The reason his runs and rbis were down were because of where he batted in the lineup. In San Francisco, Feliz batted in either the 3, 4, or 5 spot and was protected by Barry Bonds or driven home because of Bonds.
Another problem in 2008 was his back. Most of the year he had an injured back, but decided to play through it and opted to wait to undergo surgery. Also, Pedro Feliz's BABIP (.258) was his lowest since 2003. Even though his power numbers were down, his back was hurting him throughout the year, and his BABIP was lower than usual, Feliz had his best OBP since 2004, his best BB% (7.2%) ever, and his best BB/K ratio (.61) ever. Those are excellent signs to see in a hitter and now that Pedro had the off season back surgery, he is putting his new plate discipline together with his old power and the results are showing in 2009.
2009: .307/.373/.433/2 HR/19 runs/ 25 RBI/17 BB
Yes, it's still not even half way through the season, but it is already obvious that the back surgery has helped considerably. His BABIP so far is .341, which is well above his career average, so it should come down, but everything so far points to a very good 2009 for Feliz. He should get back to his 20 homeruns due to his healthy back and the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. Also, Pedro is showing off his new plate discipline by having a 10.2 BB% and .89 BB/K ratio, which are his highest percentages by far and if he can keep that up he will exceed the expectations that the Phillies had for him when they signed him after the 2007 season. This is looking like a career year for Pedro Feliz and he will play a big part in the success of the Phillies the rest of the way.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Crawford Running Wild
In case you haven't noticed, Carl Crawford has gone absolutely crazy on the base paths. Through 47 games, Crawford has a whopping 30 stolen bases. It might be even more remarkable that he hasn't been caught stealing at all. That's right, he's a perfect 30 for 30 on steal attempts so far. The 27 year old is on pace for 101 stolen bases, but is that truly realistic?
2009: .316/.379/.420/1 HR/22 RBI/30 SB/.385 BABIP/0.50 BB/K
Crawford's .385 BABIP will be almost impossible to maintain, it should regress to somewhere around his .333 career BABIP as the season progresses. His batted ball statistics are in line with his career numbers, so it looks like he's simply getting lucky. If his luck turns, Crawford will be on base less which will naturally lead to less steal opportunities.
It's hard to tell when his luck will run out, but there are some peripheral stats that bode well for him. In 2007, Crawford maintained a .375 BABIP for the entire year; if he did it before, why can't he do it again?
Crawford's walk rate is currently the highest of his career at 8.5% which is a significant increase from his 5.1% career rate. His .50 K/BB rate has also increased considerably from his .37 career rate. The overall increase in walks means Crawford is becoming more selective at the plate and not swinging at pitches out of the zone which are harder to turn into hits.
At 27, Carl Crawford is in the prime of his career, he is walking more, and has shown the ability to hold high BABIPs for long periods of time in the past. While I have no doubt his BABIP will regress at least to his .375 2007 mark (and most likely even more), his improved plate discipline should help give him a legitimate shot to steal 100 bases.
2009: .316/.379/.420/1 HR/22 RBI/30 SB/.385 BABIP/0.50 BB/K
Crawford's .385 BABIP will be almost impossible to maintain, it should regress to somewhere around his .333 career BABIP as the season progresses. His batted ball statistics are in line with his career numbers, so it looks like he's simply getting lucky. If his luck turns, Crawford will be on base less which will naturally lead to less steal opportunities.
It's hard to tell when his luck will run out, but there are some peripheral stats that bode well for him. In 2007, Crawford maintained a .375 BABIP for the entire year; if he did it before, why can't he do it again?
Crawford's walk rate is currently the highest of his career at 8.5% which is a significant increase from his 5.1% career rate. His .50 K/BB rate has also increased considerably from his .37 career rate. The overall increase in walks means Crawford is becoming more selective at the plate and not swinging at pitches out of the zone which are harder to turn into hits.
At 27, Carl Crawford is in the prime of his career, he is walking more, and has shown the ability to hold high BABIPs for long periods of time in the past. While I have no doubt his BABIP will regress at least to his .375 2007 mark (and most likely even more), his improved plate discipline should help give him a legitimate shot to steal 100 bases.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Baseball Stalker Fantasy League
Speedy and I are going to start a mid-season Fantasy Baseball League and we are looking for people who will be active. If you are interested in joining our league, email us or leave a comment. We really want to have a good, competitive, and active league.
Thank you and hope you will join.
Thank you and hope you will join.
Fernando Martinez Called Up
With the recent placement of Ryan Church on the disabled list, the New York Mets have decided to call up their best hitting prospect, Fernando Martinez. The Mets have moved Fernando quickly through the minor league system, as shown by the fact he is 20 years old and making his MLB debut. He has always been one of the youngest players at every level he has played at and has held his own throughout all of them. This year is no different at AAA.
2009: 42 games/.291 Batting Average/.337 OBP/.552 SLG/.889 OPS/11 BBs/8 Homeruns/28 RBIs/2 SBs
Those are very good numbers, considering he is still only 20 years old. He started off slow in April, but in May he has been on fire. Posting a .337 avg/.378 OBP/.663 SLG/7 homeruns. He also greatly improved his K% and raised his Line Drive %, which are both very good signs.
Fernando should be playing a lot while Church is on the DL and even though he will most likely head back to AAA when Church returns, this is at least getting his "feet wet". This is the beginning of a very bright future for Fernando Martinez, who, if he stays healthy, should be a future All-Star.
2009: 42 games/.291 Batting Average/.337 OBP/.552 SLG/.889 OPS/11 BBs/8 Homeruns/28 RBIs/2 SBs
Those are very good numbers, considering he is still only 20 years old. He started off slow in April, but in May he has been on fire. Posting a .337 avg/.378 OBP/.663 SLG/7 homeruns. He also greatly improved his K% and raised his Line Drive %, which are both very good signs.
Fernando should be playing a lot while Church is on the DL and even though he will most likely head back to AAA when Church returns, this is at least getting his "feet wet". This is the beginning of a very bright future for Fernando Martinez, who, if he stays healthy, should be a future All-Star.
Monday, May 25, 2009
A Small Pitcher with Big Numbers
Baseball America ranked Tim Collins as the 30th best player in Toronto Blue Jays farm system. He has been amazing coming out of the bullpen so far in his minor league career. Here is what he did last year:
2008: 4 - 2/1.98 ERA/.995 WHIP/68.1 Innings Pitched/14 Saves/98 Strikeouts/32 Walks.
Collins went un-drafted coming out of high school, but he did get noticed and eventually signed by Toronto. With those type of numbers you would think someone would have seen this talent and drafted him and he would be higher than 30th on Toronto's prospect list. Well, first of all Tim Collins stands at 5'7 and weighs 155 pounds. Second of all, nobody real knows how or why he is dominating batters. It puzzles a lot of people, but whatever he is doing is certainly working because he is still doing extremely well this year.
2009: 2 - 2/2.62 ERA/1.000 WHIP/24.1 Innings Pitched/43 Strikeouts/10 Walks
So far his ERA and WHIP are higher than last year, but he is still tearing it up. His K/9 this year (16.1) is higher than last year (12.9), which is unbelievable. Also, his K/BB ratio this year (4.30) is higher than last year (3.06). When someone is striking out batters 4 more times than they are walking batters that is outstanding. It will certainly be interesting to see how the rest of this year plays out and how he does at AA, AAA, and hopefully the majors in the future.
2008: 4 - 2/1.98 ERA/.995 WHIP/68.1 Innings Pitched/14 Saves/98 Strikeouts/32 Walks.
Collins went un-drafted coming out of high school, but he did get noticed and eventually signed by Toronto. With those type of numbers you would think someone would have seen this talent and drafted him and he would be higher than 30th on Toronto's prospect list. Well, first of all Tim Collins stands at 5'7 and weighs 155 pounds. Second of all, nobody real knows how or why he is dominating batters. It puzzles a lot of people, but whatever he is doing is certainly working because he is still doing extremely well this year.
2009: 2 - 2/2.62 ERA/1.000 WHIP/24.1 Innings Pitched/43 Strikeouts/10 Walks
So far his ERA and WHIP are higher than last year, but he is still tearing it up. His K/9 this year (16.1) is higher than last year (12.9), which is unbelievable. Also, his K/BB ratio this year (4.30) is higher than last year (3.06). When someone is striking out batters 4 more times than they are walking batters that is outstanding. It will certainly be interesting to see how the rest of this year plays out and how he does at AA, AAA, and hopefully the majors in the future.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Yes, Miguel Cabrera is That Good
Through 41 games Miguel Cabrera has torn the cover off the ball. He is currently posting a line of .370/.439/.597 with 9 homeruns and 33 RBI. He's shown in the past that he can be a .300 hitter with 30 homeruns, but can he take his production to the next level and truly become a once-in-a-generation type of hitter?
Let's start with the bad news. His ridiculously high '09 batting average is mostly a product of his .387 BABIP which should regress at least to his .352 career mark, maybe lower. That's it for the bad news.
On the sunny side, Cabrera's batting average has been somewhat hindered by a 50% groundball rate, which is almost 10% higher than his career rate. His K/BB rate is the highest of his career at .89 which shows a more mature approach at the plate than in past years. His homerun/flyball rate is right in line with his career numbers at 19.5%. In 2008, he led the American League with 37 homeruns and finished 3rd with 127 RBI despite a rough first-half numbers largely due to a tough adjustment to his new team and league.
Now 26 years old, Cabrera is just entering his prime and superior peripheral stats suggest he can make a serious run at the triple-crown in 2009 and for years afterward.
Let's start with the bad news. His ridiculously high '09 batting average is mostly a product of his .387 BABIP which should regress at least to his .352 career mark, maybe lower. That's it for the bad news.
On the sunny side, Cabrera's batting average has been somewhat hindered by a 50% groundball rate, which is almost 10% higher than his career rate. His K/BB rate is the highest of his career at .89 which shows a more mature approach at the plate than in past years. His homerun/flyball rate is right in line with his career numbers at 19.5%. In 2008, he led the American League with 37 homeruns and finished 3rd with 127 RBI despite a rough first-half numbers largely due to a tough adjustment to his new team and league.
Now 26 years old, Cabrera is just entering his prime and superior peripheral stats suggest he can make a serious run at the triple-crown in 2009 and for years afterward.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Akron Aeros vs. Trenton Thunder: 5/19&20/09
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Clyde and I headed to Waterfront Park to see the Thunder (Yankees AA) take on the prospect-laden Akron Aeros (Indians AA). According to Baseball America, six of Cleveland's top prospects currently reside in Akron, including their #1 prospect, Carlos Santana. Both days were clear and around 60 degrees with mild wind.
Akron:
Nick Weglarz, OF - The Canadian born outfielder went 1-7 with a walk in the series. He swung at the first
pitch he saw in four of his at-bats, which is rather odd considering he showed very good plate discipline last year. He didn't strike out but all of his outs were weak infield pop-ups or groundballs.
Beau Mills, 1B - Mills has the reputation of being one of the beat power-hitting prospects in the minors right now. He certainly didn't disappoint when he hit the longest homerun I've ever seen live, well over 400 feet to dead center, against the wind on Wednesday. Overall he went 2-7 with a walk, strikeout, and homerun that still hasn't landed yet.
Carlos Rivero, SS - Rivero was celebrating his 21st birthday on Wednesday, but was quiet throughout the series going 1-7 with 2 walks. He looks like he's still growing into his body at this stage in his career and power should come once that happens.
Carlos Santana, C - The #1 prospect in the Indians organization tore a ball down the le
ft field foul line in his first at-bat driving in the first run of the game. Overall he went 2-8 with a double and 3 RBI. He had no problem hitting from the left or the right side as he blasted hits from both. Even though he only had 2 hits, the ball appeared to jump off his bat, I came into the series somewhat skeptical of him and left a believer. I have little doubt he will be an all-star backstop in short order.
Josh Tomlin, P - The starter for Tuesday's game, Tomlin dominated the Thunder hitters over 6 innings, giving up 7 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, and striking out 8. He mostly used a fastball/12-6 curve combo with the occasional change up mixed in. He kept the ball low and generated a lot of groundballs, especially as he tired and had to go right after hitters. His curveball had a lot of break and he struck out at least 5 of his 8 with it.
Zach Putnam, P - Putnam came in as relief for Tomlin on Tuesday and worked 2 perfect innings while striking out one. The most impressive part was the other 5 out he recorded were all via groundballs. He was easily the best pitcher I saw in the series.
Hector Rondon, P - We got to see Rondon last year at the Futures Game and I wasn't impressed. We saw him again on Wednesday as he went 5 innings, giving up 4 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks while striking out 6. The first thing that stands out is his electric arm, his fastball sat in the low-to-mid-90's, but he didn't use his off speed stuff much. Cleveland tried to move him to relief in order to help them faster, but he struggled out of the bullpen so it looks like he'll remain a starter for now.
Trenton:
Jorge Vazquez
, 1B - The Mexican League product has unanimously been Trenton's best hitter thus far. He continued to stay hot, going 3-7 with a homerun and 2 RBI over the series. He lined a few balls right at the outfielders; if he turned on them a little more they would have been easy doubles, maybe triples.
Wilkin De La Rosa, P - One of the Yankees top pi
tching prospects, De La Rosa went 6.2 innings, giving up 4 hits, 2 runs, and 3 walks while striking out 5 in a solid performance on Tuesday. The only flaws I noticed were poor control, and extreme fly ball tendencies, which will be fine at a pitcher's haven like Trenton but will be a lot more noticeable in the majors. On the bright side, he mixed his pitches well, keeping hitters off balance causing a lot of weak pop-ups and dribbling ground balls.
Akron:
Nick Weglarz, OF - The Canadian born outfielder went 1-7 with a walk in the series. He swung at the first
pitch he saw in four of his at-bats, which is rather odd considering he showed very good plate discipline last year. He didn't strike out but all of his outs were weak infield pop-ups or groundballs.Beau Mills, 1B - Mills has the reputation of being one of the beat power-hitting prospects in the minors right now. He certainly didn't disappoint when he hit the longest homerun I've ever seen live, well over 400 feet to dead center, against the wind on Wednesday. Overall he went 2-7 with a walk, strikeout, and homerun that still hasn't landed yet.
Carlos Rivero, SS - Rivero was celebrating his 21st birthday on Wednesday, but was quiet throughout the series going 1-7 with 2 walks. He looks like he's still growing into his body at this stage in his career and power should come once that happens.
Carlos Santana, C - The #1 prospect in the Indians organization tore a ball down the le
ft field foul line in his first at-bat driving in the first run of the game. Overall he went 2-8 with a double and 3 RBI. He had no problem hitting from the left or the right side as he blasted hits from both. Even though he only had 2 hits, the ball appeared to jump off his bat, I came into the series somewhat skeptical of him and left a believer. I have little doubt he will be an all-star backstop in short order.Josh Tomlin, P - The starter for Tuesday's game, Tomlin dominated the Thunder hitters over 6 innings, giving up 7 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, and striking out 8. He mostly used a fastball/12-6 curve combo with the occasional change up mixed in. He kept the ball low and generated a lot of groundballs, especially as he tired and had to go right after hitters. His curveball had a lot of break and he struck out at least 5 of his 8 with it.
Zach Putnam, P - Putnam came in as relief for Tomlin on Tuesday and worked 2 perfect innings while striking out one. The most impressive part was the other 5 out he recorded were all via groundballs. He was easily the best pitcher I saw in the series.
Hector Rondon, P - We got to see Rondon last year at the Futures Game and I wasn't impressed. We saw him again on Wednesday as he went 5 innings, giving up 4 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks while striking out 6. The first thing that stands out is his electric arm, his fastball sat in the low-to-mid-90's, but he didn't use his off speed stuff much. Cleveland tried to move him to relief in order to help them faster, but he struggled out of the bullpen so it looks like he'll remain a starter for now.
Trenton:
Jorge Vazquez
, 1B - The Mexican League product has unanimously been Trenton's best hitter thus far. He continued to stay hot, going 3-7 with a homerun and 2 RBI over the series. He lined a few balls right at the outfielders; if he turned on them a little more they would have been easy doubles, maybe triples.Wilkin De La Rosa, P - One of the Yankees top pi
tching prospects, De La Rosa went 6.2 innings, giving up 4 hits, 2 runs, and 3 walks while striking out 5 in a solid performance on Tuesday. The only flaws I noticed were poor control, and extreme fly ball tendencies, which will be fine at a pitcher's haven like Trenton but will be a lot more noticeable in the majors. On the bright side, he mixed his pitches well, keeping hitters off balance causing a lot of weak pop-ups and dribbling ground balls.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Not So Fast Mat Gamel...
Last week, Milwaukee called up their best hitting prospect, Mat Gamel. The 23 year old 3rd baseman asserted himself as one of the best bats in the minor leagues in 2008 posting a line of .329/.396/.538 with 19 homeruns and 97 RBI in 507 at-bats in AA. He has certainly proved he can hit at the minor league level, but how well will his game translate to the majors?
To start, lets revisit his minor league numbers:
2007 - 9 HR 60 RBI .300/.376/.472 .365 BABIP .59 BB/K 466 AB
2008 - 19 HR 97 RBI .329/.396/.538 .392 BABIP .50 BB/K 507 AB
2009 - 8 HR 31 RBI .336/.428/.647 .416 BABIP .62 BB/K 119 AB
*BABIP - Batting Average On Balls In Play (FirstInning.com)
There is no doubt that Gamel dominated the minors over the last three years but the most concerning number is his ridiculously high BABIP. The major league average falls around .300 but some players have higher career BABIPs than others depending on their approach. For example, Ichiro has a .356 career BABIP thanks to his superior contact skills.
Gamel is certainly an excellent hitter, but he is definitly no Ichiro, therefore his BABIPs around .400 will certainly fall at the major league level and that means he could see a serious drop in his batting average.
In order to get on base at his near .400 minor league clip, Gamel will have to change his approach at the plate and walk more. He has never had any serious plate discipline issues as his .50 minor league BB/K rate is right on the edge of what we like to see, but it's certainly not great.
As for his defense, Gamel may be the worst fielding 3rd baseman in the majors right now, he has improved a little since his 53 error 2007 season but a position change in the near future is almost gaurenteed. With Bill Hall on a bit of a hot streak, and playing adequate defense at the hot-corner, Gamel might have trouble getting playing time right away.
On the bright side Gamel is only 23 and his power should carry over from the minors enough that he could hit around 25 homeruns annually in the major leagues. However, he will need to reform his approach and be less agressive against major league pitchers. If he can take more pitches and get on base at a higher clip, I have no doubt Gamel will be an all-star. The problem is his adjustment is a difficult one to make, and until he does we won't see a sparkling .300 average or 25 homeruns from him anytime soon.
To start, lets revisit his minor league numbers:
2007 - 9 HR 60 RBI .300/.376/.472 .365 BABIP .59 BB/K 466 AB
2008 - 19 HR 97 RBI .329/.396/.538 .392 BABIP .50 BB/K 507 AB
2009 - 8 HR 31 RBI .336/.428/.647 .416 BABIP .62 BB/K 119 AB
*BABIP - Batting Average On Balls In Play (FirstInning.com)
There is no doubt that Gamel dominated the minors over the last three years but the most concerning number is his ridiculously high BABIP. The major league average falls around .300 but some players have higher career BABIPs than others depending on their approach. For example, Ichiro has a .356 career BABIP thanks to his superior contact skills.
Gamel is certainly an excellent hitter, but he is definitly no Ichiro, therefore his BABIPs around .400 will certainly fall at the major league level and that means he could see a serious drop in his batting average.
In order to get on base at his near .400 minor league clip, Gamel will have to change his approach at the plate and walk more. He has never had any serious plate discipline issues as his .50 minor league BB/K rate is right on the edge of what we like to see, but it's certainly not great.
As for his defense, Gamel may be the worst fielding 3rd baseman in the majors right now, he has improved a little since his 53 error 2007 season but a position change in the near future is almost gaurenteed. With Bill Hall on a bit of a hot streak, and playing adequate defense at the hot-corner, Gamel might have trouble getting playing time right away.
On the bright side Gamel is only 23 and his power should carry over from the minors enough that he could hit around 25 homeruns annually in the major leagues. However, he will need to reform his approach and be less agressive against major league pitchers. If he can take more pitches and get on base at a higher clip, I have no doubt Gamel will be an all-star. The problem is his adjustment is a difficult one to make, and until he does we won't see a sparkling .300 average or 25 homeruns from him anytime soon.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Santana's Debut
Today, Ervin Santana, of the Los Angeles Angels made his 2009 debut against the Boston Red Sox. Considering the circumstances, the Angels should be excited with how his debut went. Santana's line was 5 innings pitched, 3 earned runs, 7 hits, 5 strikeouts, and 3 walks. He did not factor into the decision of the game.
Santana worked himself out of a couple jams but never let the game get out of hand, which was good to see. He loaded the bases in the 4th inning and was able to strike David Ortiz out with his best slider of the afternoon to end the inning. Santana still has to fully get back into game shape (He labored through the 5th inning) and that will happen with more starts. Some of his pitches looked really good, but for the most part they were average and again, that will come back with some more appearances. Overall, not a bad debut for someone who has been shelved for months. Look to see him build on this first start and get back into All-Star form.
Santana worked himself out of a couple jams but never let the game get out of hand, which was good to see. He loaded the bases in the 4th inning and was able to strike David Ortiz out with his best slider of the afternoon to end the inning. Santana still has to fully get back into game shape (He labored through the 5th inning) and that will happen with more starts. Some of his pitches looked really good, but for the most part they were average and again, that will come back with some more appearances. Overall, not a bad debut for someone who has been shelved for months. Look to see him build on this first start and get back into All-Star form.
Portland Sea Dogs vs. Trenton Thunder: 5/12&13/09
On Tuesday and Wednesday we went to Waterfront Park to see the Trenton Thunder (Yankees AA affiliate) take on the Portland Sea Dogs (Red Sox AA affiliate). If you are not familiar with Waterfront Park, you should know that while it's one of the nicest atmospheres to watch a ball game, it's deep dimensions and the wind that blows off of the Delaware River makes it almost impossible to hit homeruns. In the 30+ games I've seen there over the last 3 years, I think I've seen 5 homeruns. Here were some highlights from the series...
Trenton:
Alan Horne, SP - Horne was ranked #5 in the Yankees farm system by Baseball America in 2008 before injuring his arm and dropping to #25 in 2009. He only made it through 3 innings due to anoth
er arm injury. He cruised through the 1st inning but began wincing soon after that.
Reegie Corona, SS - He walked three times and hit a single and a double in his 8 plate appearances over the two-day span. The 22 year old looked extremely dialed in at the plate, his defense didn't disappoint either as he turned a few tough balls in outs.
Colin Curtis, OF - Curtis fell victim to Trenton's strong winds that knocked two long fly balls down at the warning track. Overall, he was quiet, only going 1-8 in the series.
Jorge Vazquez, 1B - The first thing Clyde and I said to each other was "wow, this guy is enormous!" Vazquez, who came over from the Mexican league, is listed at 225 pounds but looks much closer to 240. Weight aside, he can hit, going 2-8 with 3 RBI in the series, all while making some pretty nice defensive plays at first base for a man that size.
Ryan Pope, SP - The starter for the Wednesday game. Pope pitched an absolute gem, going 7 innings while only allowing one hit, striking out 6, and walking nobody. His arm did not appear to be overpowering but his command of his fastball, curve, and changeup was strong. However he was certainly helped by the wind keeping the balls in the park; on a different night he might have let up 3 or 4 homeruns.
Portland:
Junichi Tazawa, SP - After getting a lot of publicity in spring training, Tazawa has not disappointed so far. He dominated hitters, going 6 innings, striking out 7, walking 1, and scattering 3 hits in one of the best pitching performances I've ever seen live. He had a mid-90's fastball that hitters looked late on all night, and also mixed in a curve ball and splitter - both looked excellent. Every hitter he faced looked over matched at one point or another in their at-bat which showed as he induced a number of weak infield pop-ups and groundballs. The 22 year old held his velocity throughout the game while displaying fantastic command. I would not be surprised if Boston called him up at some point this season.
Lars Anderson, 1B - Anderson, who ranked #16 on our top 100 prospects list this spring has been off to a rough start, only hitting .230 with a few homeruns. Anderson struck out twice and walked 3 times in
the first game. He went 1-4 in the second game. Anderson showed a lot of patience at the plate and got unlucky as he lined a few balls right to the defenders. Regardless, he should be an all-star some day.
Argenis Diaz, SS - Certainly known more for his glove than his bat, Diaz struggled mightily at the plate as he went 0-6 with a walk. He didn't strike out at all, but he also didn't hit anything besides weak ground balls. He managed to hit .286 last year split between A+ and AA but had little power. If he can't hit in the majors he will most likely be a fringe utility player. if he does find a way to hit, he could very easily win a gold glove.
Other Notables: Reid Engel (POR) hit the only homerun of the series, which went well over 400 feet...Bubba Bell (POR) made a few brilliant defensive plays in center field...Justin Snyder (TRE) only played on Wednesday but he went 1-1 with 3 walks...Eduadro Nunez (TRE) hit lead-off both days and went 2-9 with 4 strikeouts and a stolen base.
Trenton:
Alan Horne, SP - Horne was ranked #5 in the Yankees farm system by Baseball America in 2008 before injuring his arm and dropping to #25 in 2009. He only made it through 3 innings due to anoth
er arm injury. He cruised through the 1st inning but began wincing soon after that.Reegie Corona, SS - He walked three times and hit a single and a double in his 8 plate appearances over the two-day span. The 22 year old looked extremely dialed in at the plate, his defense didn't disappoint either as he turned a few tough balls in outs.
Colin Curtis, OF - Curtis fell victim to Trenton's strong winds that knocked two long fly balls down at the warning track. Overall, he was quiet, only going 1-8 in the series.
Jorge Vazquez, 1B - The first thing Clyde and I said to each other was "wow, this guy is enormous!" Vazquez, who came over from the Mexican league, is listed at 225 pounds but looks much closer to 240. Weight aside, he can hit, going 2-8 with 3 RBI in the series, all while making some pretty nice defensive plays at first base for a man that size.
Ryan Pope, SP - The starter for the Wednesday game. Pope pitched an absolute gem, going 7 innings while only allowing one hit, striking out 6, and walking nobody. His arm did not appear to be overpowering but his command of his fastball, curve, and changeup was strong. However he was certainly helped by the wind keeping the balls in the park; on a different night he might have let up 3 or 4 homeruns.
Portland:
Junichi Tazawa, SP - After getting a lot of publicity in spring training, Tazawa has not disappointed so far. He dominated hitters, going 6 innings, striking out 7, walking 1, and scattering 3 hits in one of the best pitching performances I've ever seen live. He had a mid-90's fastball that hitters looked late on all night, and also mixed in a curve ball and splitter - both looked excellent. Every hitter he faced looked over matched at one point or another in their at-bat which showed as he induced a number of weak infield pop-ups and groundballs. The 22 year old held his velocity throughout the game while displaying fantastic command. I would not be surprised if Boston called him up at some point this season.
Lars Anderson, 1B - Anderson, who ranked #16 on our top 100 prospects list this spring has been off to a rough start, only hitting .230 with a few homeruns. Anderson struck out twice and walked 3 times in
the first game. He went 1-4 in the second game. Anderson showed a lot of patience at the plate and got unlucky as he lined a few balls right to the defenders. Regardless, he should be an all-star some day.Argenis Diaz, SS - Certainly known more for his glove than his bat, Diaz struggled mightily at the plate as he went 0-6 with a walk. He didn't strike out at all, but he also didn't hit anything besides weak ground balls. He managed to hit .286 last year split between A+ and AA but had little power. If he can't hit in the majors he will most likely be a fringe utility player. if he does find a way to hit, he could very easily win a gold glove.
Other Notables: Reid Engel (POR) hit the only homerun of the series, which went well over 400 feet...Bubba Bell (POR) made a few brilliant defensive plays in center field...Justin Snyder (TRE) only played on Wednesday but he went 1-1 with 3 walks...Eduadro Nunez (TRE) hit lead-off both days and went 2-9 with 4 strikeouts and a stolen base.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
2009 Preview: Tampa Bay Rays
There was no greater surprise in 2008 than the Tampa Bay Rays, the team who finished with the worst record in baseball in 2007, making it to the World Series. Led by a strong pitching staff and star rookie Evan Longoria, the Rays took the entire league by storm and came up just short, losing to the Phillies.
Projected Lineup:
C - Dioner Navarro
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Akinori Iwamura
SS - Jason Bartlett
3B - Evan Longoria
LF - Carl Crawford
CF - BJ Upton
RF - Matt Joyce
DH - Pat Burrell
Projected Rotation:
#1 - James Shields
#2 - Matt Garza
#3 - Scott Kazmir
#4 - Andy Sonnanstine
#5 - Jeff Niemann
Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Niemann looks to have the job for the time being, but he has been extremely injury prone in the past. With a solid month or two in AAA, Wade Davis could force his way up.
2009 Outlook: The Rays play in baseball's toughest division, so proving that 2008 was not a fluke will be that much harder. BJ Upton's shoulder has healed and Carl Crawford will look to get back on track after injury woes kept him from getting going in 2008. The signing of Pat Burrell was a very good pickup because of Burrell's power and more consistent bat at the DH spot for the Rays.
The rotation will need to be fantastic for them to have any chance to repeat. Luckily, Shields, Kazmir, and Garza provide an excellent backbone. Each should get better in 2009, and that alone may be enough to keep them on top. Also, at some point the young David Price will be called up and will add to the already solid pitching of the Rays. The bullpen was led by Australian sensation Grant Balfour, he too will need to be excellent if they have title hopes in '09.
Projected Finish: 1st place, AL East.
Projected Lineup:
C - Dioner Navarro
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Akinori Iwamura
SS - Jason Bartlett
3B - Evan Longoria
LF - Carl Crawford
CF - BJ Upton
RF - Matt Joyce
DH - Pat Burrell
Projected Rotation:
#1 - James Shields
#2 - Matt Garza
#3 - Scott Kazmir
#4 - Andy Sonnanstine
#5 - Jeff Niemann
Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Niemann looks to have the job for the time being, but he has been extremely injury prone in the past. With a solid month or two in AAA, Wade Davis could force his way up.
2009 Outlook: The Rays play in baseball's toughest division, so proving that 2008 was not a fluke will be that much harder. BJ Upton's shoulder has healed and Carl Crawford will look to get back on track after injury woes kept him from getting going in 2008. The signing of Pat Burrell was a very good pickup because of Burrell's power and more consistent bat at the DH spot for the Rays.
The rotation will need to be fantastic for them to have any chance to repeat. Luckily, Shields, Kazmir, and Garza provide an excellent backbone. Each should get better in 2009, and that alone may be enough to keep them on top. Also, at some point the young David Price will be called up and will add to the already solid pitching of the Rays. The bullpen was led by Australian sensation Grant Balfour, he too will need to be excellent if they have title hopes in '09.
Projected Finish: 1st place, AL East.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
2009 Preview: Boston Red Sox
In 2008 the Boston Red Sox were American League Wild Card winners and they were one win away from playing the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series. It was a roller coaster year for the Sox from Big Papi's injury, to Dustin Pedroia's MVP year, to Beckett's injury, to the outstanding play of Kevin Youkilis, to a playoff berth, to finally a heart-breaking playoff exit. Also, Dice K and Jon Lester really stepped up for Boston's rotation, as they just kept on winning games for the team. It was an overall good year, with a devastating finish.
Prjoected Lineup:
C - Jason Varitek
1B - Kevin Youkilis
2B - Dustin Pedroia
SS - Jed Lowrie3B - Mike Lowell
LF - Jason Bay
CF - Jacoby Ellsbury
RF - JD DrewDH - David Ortiz
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Josh Beckett
#2 - Daisuke Matsuzaka#3 - Jon Lester
#4 - Tim Wakefield#5 - Brad Penny
Closer - Jonathon PapelbonPosition Battles:
SS - Throughout the season Lowrie and Julio Lugo should split at short stop and whoever has the hot bat should get more of the playing time. Lowrie should begin the season as the starter.
#5 Starter - Right now Brad Penny looks to have the job won, but that does not mean it will be his all season. The Red Sox have Clay Buchholz and John Smoltz, who they signed in the off season, so either one of them could fill in for Penny if he starts to not pitch well.
2009 Outlook: The Red Sox should fight for another playoff berth in 2009. They return the same offense that they had a year before, which consists of the AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, and Jason Bay who should really power the offense once again. One thing that will make a big impact on Boston is the health of David Ortiz. If he can stay healthy than Boston should have no real offensive problems, but if he gets hurt again than the team will need to do some rotating of players and hope someone steps up, like Drew did in 08.
The pitching staff looks the same as in 2008, with the addition of Brad Penny and Smoltz who look to add to the already good pitching staff. Dice K made some big strides last year and is now one of the premier pitchers in the league and is showing why Boston payed top dollar to sign him. Jon Lester also had a breakout season last year going 16 - 6 and pitching in real big games when Boston needed a win. The big key to the staff is Josh Beckett and his health. If Beckett can stay healthy than this staff can be one of the best in all of baseball, but if gets hurt than either Buchholz or Smoltz will have to step up.
Projected Finish: 2nd Place, AL East
Saturday, April 4, 2009
2009 Preview: New York Yankees
2007 was the start of the Joe Girardi era for the New York Yankees and it did not start off so great. The Yankees finished 3rd in the division and missed the playoffs for the first time in a decade. They were plagued by injuries and poor pitching. On the bright side, Mike Mussina had a brilliant year by winning 20 games for the first time in his career and Alex Rodriguez even though he did not play the whole season still put up great numbers. Outside of those two, everyone else on the team was pretty average and that led to their 89 - 73 record last season.
Projected Lineup:
C - Jorge Posada
1B - Mark Teixera
2B - Robinson Cano
SS - Derek Jeter
3B - Alex Rodriguez
LF - Johnny Damon
CF - Brett Gardner
RF - Xavier Nady
DH - Hideki Matsui
Projected Rotation:
#1 - CC Sabathia
#2 - Chien-Ming Wang
#3 - AJ Burnett
#4 - Andy Pettite
#5 - Joba Chamberlain
Closer - Mariano Rivera
Postion Battles:
CF - Brett Gardner won the spot in spring training but that does not mean that it is his all season. If he starts to falter, then Melky Cabrera will be eager to get in and prove that he is the starting center fielder.
2009 Outlook: This past off season the Yankees did what they do best, which is spend money. They went out and get CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Mark Texiera in hopes of another return to the playoffs and another World Series Championship.
The offense looks as if it will be really good as long as everyone can stay healthy. They have a fairly old lineup and Alex Rodriguez is the first person to go down with an injury. A-Rod's injury should hurt them at the beginning of the season, but when he comes back he will put up the number that he always does. Jorge Posada is healthy and is hoping to improve on his awful 2008.
The pitching on paper looks as if it should be one of the best, but it is definitely the weakness of the Yankees. AJ Burnett is known for not staying healthy and so nobody knows how he will do. CC Sabathia started off really slow in the AL last year with the Cleveland Indians and then turned it on when he moved to the NL. So it should be interesting to see how he does back in the AL, in a very tough AL East. Joba Chamberlain has not proven to be a consistent solid starter yet, but he is still young. This could be the year that he turns it around and becomes the stud starter than everyone is expecting him to be. Finally, Mariano Rivera is old and skills are dimenishing, but he can still get the job done. If he can stay healthy, then the Yankees will be fine in the late innings.
Overall, this team could be really good or they can be an average team, but it really depends on players staying healthy and the consistency of the starting rotation. They will definitely be in the race for a playoff spot, but I do not know if they will actually make it.
Projected Finish: 3rd Place, AL East
Projected Lineup:
C - Jorge Posada
1B - Mark Teixera
2B - Robinson Cano
SS - Derek Jeter
3B - Alex Rodriguez
LF - Johnny Damon
CF - Brett Gardner
RF - Xavier Nady
DH - Hideki Matsui
Projected Rotation:
#1 - CC Sabathia
#2 - Chien-Ming Wang
#3 - AJ Burnett
#4 - Andy Pettite
#5 - Joba Chamberlain
Closer - Mariano Rivera
Postion Battles:
CF - Brett Gardner won the spot in spring training but that does not mean that it is his all season. If he starts to falter, then Melky Cabrera will be eager to get in and prove that he is the starting center fielder.
2009 Outlook: This past off season the Yankees did what they do best, which is spend money. They went out and get CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Mark Texiera in hopes of another return to the playoffs and another World Series Championship.
The offense looks as if it will be really good as long as everyone can stay healthy. They have a fairly old lineup and Alex Rodriguez is the first person to go down with an injury. A-Rod's injury should hurt them at the beginning of the season, but when he comes back he will put up the number that he always does. Jorge Posada is healthy and is hoping to improve on his awful 2008.
The pitching on paper looks as if it should be one of the best, but it is definitely the weakness of the Yankees. AJ Burnett is known for not staying healthy and so nobody knows how he will do. CC Sabathia started off really slow in the AL last year with the Cleveland Indians and then turned it on when he moved to the NL. So it should be interesting to see how he does back in the AL, in a very tough AL East. Joba Chamberlain has not proven to be a consistent solid starter yet, but he is still young. This could be the year that he turns it around and becomes the stud starter than everyone is expecting him to be. Finally, Mariano Rivera is old and skills are dimenishing, but he can still get the job done. If he can stay healthy, then the Yankees will be fine in the late innings.
Overall, this team could be really good or they can be an average team, but it really depends on players staying healthy and the consistency of the starting rotation. They will definitely be in the race for a playoff spot, but I do not know if they will actually make it.
Projected Finish: 3rd Place, AL East
Friday, April 3, 2009
Pitching Projections Are Up!
We finished up our pitching projections today, they can be found in the "Projections" section on the right side of our page. You can also email us for the projections in excel or .pdf format.
Our methodology for the pitching projections was pretty much the same as it was for the hitting projections. The biggest difference is that 2008 is weighted much heavier for the pitchers, due to the higher year-to-year swings in their stats.
Our methodology for the pitching projections was pretty much the same as it was for the hitting projections. The biggest difference is that 2008 is weighted much heavier for the pitchers, due to the higher year-to-year swings in their stats.
Monday, March 30, 2009
2009 Preview: New York Mets
For the second year in a row the Mets went into the year as the favorite to win the NL East and blew a September lead, causing them to miss the playoffs. The root of their troubles was an awful bullpen which blew a whopping 29 saves in 2008. On the bright side, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Johan Santana continued to be among the best at their respective positions. The Mets also got exceptional contributions from their farm system as David Murphy, Nick Evans, and Fernando Tatis all filled in when Ryan Church went down with injuries.
Projected Lineup:
C - Brian Schneider
1B - Carlos Delgado
2B - Luis Castillo
SS - Jose Reyes
3B - David Wright
LF - Danny Murphy
CF - Carlos Beltran
RF - Ryan Church
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Johan Santana
#2 - Mike Pelfrey
#3 - Oliver Perez
#4 - John Maine
#5 - Livan Hernandez
Closer - Francisco Rodriguez
Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Livan Hernandez will get the first crack at the rotation, but he'll be lucky if he makes it through April. Freddy Garcia and Jon Neise will be next in line to join the rotation.
2009 Outlook: It's going to be an exciting year for the Mets, they're moving into a new stadium, they have an explosive lineup and two big free agent relievers in Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz who should sure up their bullpen. Carlos Delgado is coming off a career year, and at 36 2008 might have been his last great year, nevertheless, he should still be a lock for 25 homeruns and 100 RBI. David Wright is the best third baseman in the NL and Jose Reyes at least a top 3 shortstop--both of them should be great once again. Carlos Beltran has proven himself to be one of the top run producers and most exciting players in baseball today, he will be 32 in April but he definitely has a few great years left.
The rotation has some question marks. Johan Santana is arguably the best starter in all of baseball and a lock for at least 200 innings and about 15 wins. All of the rest of the Mets pitchers have qualities that could make them top 20 starters some day. Mike Pelfrey generates a lot of groundballs and has great stuff, but he has had trouble striking batters out in the big leagues. Oliver Perez can be absolutely dominating at times, but when he's not on his game, he's a disaster, if he ever gets his consistency problems worked out he will be great. John Maine has proved effective, but he is extremely inefficient; most games he struggles to reach the 6th inning, if he continues, he will put a lot of stress on that bullpen. The bullpen will be at least average this year, Putz and K-Rod were two of the best closers in the game over the last couple years, now they should be one of the best pairs of 8th and 9th inning guys in the game.
Projected Finish: 1st place, NL East.
Projected Lineup:
C - Brian Schneider
1B - Carlos Delgado
2B - Luis Castillo
SS - Jose Reyes
3B - David Wright
LF - Danny Murphy
CF - Carlos Beltran
RF - Ryan Church
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Johan Santana
#2 - Mike Pelfrey
#3 - Oliver Perez
#4 - John Maine
#5 - Livan Hernandez
Closer - Francisco Rodriguez
Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Livan Hernandez will get the first crack at the rotation, but he'll be lucky if he makes it through April. Freddy Garcia and Jon Neise will be next in line to join the rotation.
2009 Outlook: It's going to be an exciting year for the Mets, they're moving into a new stadium, they have an explosive lineup and two big free agent relievers in Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz who should sure up their bullpen. Carlos Delgado is coming off a career year, and at 36 2008 might have been his last great year, nevertheless, he should still be a lock for 25 homeruns and 100 RBI. David Wright is the best third baseman in the NL and Jose Reyes at least a top 3 shortstop--both of them should be great once again. Carlos Beltran has proven himself to be one of the top run producers and most exciting players in baseball today, he will be 32 in April but he definitely has a few great years left.
The rotation has some question marks. Johan Santana is arguably the best starter in all of baseball and a lock for at least 200 innings and about 15 wins. All of the rest of the Mets pitchers have qualities that could make them top 20 starters some day. Mike Pelfrey generates a lot of groundballs and has great stuff, but he has had trouble striking batters out in the big leagues. Oliver Perez can be absolutely dominating at times, but when he's not on his game, he's a disaster, if he ever gets his consistency problems worked out he will be great. John Maine has proved effective, but he is extremely inefficient; most games he struggles to reach the 6th inning, if he continues, he will put a lot of stress on that bullpen. The bullpen will be at least average this year, Putz and K-Rod were two of the best closers in the game over the last couple years, now they should be one of the best pairs of 8th and 9th inning guys in the game.
Projected Finish: 1st place, NL East.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
2009 Preview: Philadelphia Phillies
After a disappointing playoff performance in 2007, the Phillies came into 2008 with optimism. While they had a bit of an up-and-down year, a late September winning streak and another Mets collapse catapulted the Fightin' Phils into the playoffs for the second straight year. Philadelphia cruised through the playoffs and defeated the Tampa Bay Rays for the World Series.
Projected Lineup:
C - Carlos Ruiz
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Jimmy Rollins
3B - Pedro Feliz
LF - Raul Ibanez
CF - Shane Victorino
RF - Jayson Werth
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Cole Hamels
#2 - Brett Myers
#3 - Joe Blanton
#4 - Jamie Moyer
#5 - J.A. Happ
Closer - Brad Lidge
Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Coming into spring training, Manager Charlie Manuel said the battle would be between Happ, Chan Ho Park, Kyle Kendrick, and Carlos Carrasco. Over the last few weeks the Phillies have said that both Kendrick and Carrasco will start 2008 in the minors, leaving just Park and Happ. With set-up man JC Romero suspended for the first 50 games of 2009 for violating the substance abuse policy, Manuel might be tempted to use Happ in Romero's place as a reliever.
2009 Outlook: The Phillies will have one of the most potent offenses in the NL yet again. Raul Ibanez comes of from Seattle to fill the void left by the departure of Pat Burrell. He, Utley, Howard, and Rollins will anchor the lineup. Outfielders Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth have proven to be spark plugs, and should once again use their speed to help get themselves into scoring position.
The rotation has a lot of question marks, Cole Hamels pitched close to 250 innings including the playoffs in 2008; he is having trouble with elbow soreness this spring. Brett Myers has said that he wants to be a closer, he had a terrible first half of last year, but appears to be back on track. Jaime Moyer will be 46 this year, which means there is almost no chance of him coming close to his 3,71 2008 ERA. Blanton has shown flashes of dominance in the past, but his lack of strikeouts coupled with a high walk rate does not bode well for the future. The Phillies had the best bullpen in 2008, and should be among the league leaders again this year, Brad Lidge was a perfect 41 for 41 in save opportunities and it looks like his troubles in Houston are behind him.
Projected Finish: 2nd Place, NL East.
Projected Lineup:
C - Carlos Ruiz
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Jimmy Rollins
3B - Pedro Feliz
LF - Raul Ibanez
CF - Shane Victorino
RF - Jayson Werth
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Cole Hamels
#2 - Brett Myers
#3 - Joe Blanton
#4 - Jamie Moyer
#5 - J.A. Happ
Closer - Brad Lidge
Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Coming into spring training, Manager Charlie Manuel said the battle would be between Happ, Chan Ho Park, Kyle Kendrick, and Carlos Carrasco. Over the last few weeks the Phillies have said that both Kendrick and Carrasco will start 2008 in the minors, leaving just Park and Happ. With set-up man JC Romero suspended for the first 50 games of 2009 for violating the substance abuse policy, Manuel might be tempted to use Happ in Romero's place as a reliever.
2009 Outlook: The Phillies will have one of the most potent offenses in the NL yet again. Raul Ibanez comes of from Seattle to fill the void left by the departure of Pat Burrell. He, Utley, Howard, and Rollins will anchor the lineup. Outfielders Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth have proven to be spark plugs, and should once again use their speed to help get themselves into scoring position.
The rotation has a lot of question marks, Cole Hamels pitched close to 250 innings including the playoffs in 2008; he is having trouble with elbow soreness this spring. Brett Myers has said that he wants to be a closer, he had a terrible first half of last year, but appears to be back on track. Jaime Moyer will be 46 this year, which means there is almost no chance of him coming close to his 3,71 2008 ERA. Blanton has shown flashes of dominance in the past, but his lack of strikeouts coupled with a high walk rate does not bode well for the future. The Phillies had the best bullpen in 2008, and should be among the league leaders again this year, Brad Lidge was a perfect 41 for 41 in save opportunities and it looks like his troubles in Houston are behind him.
Projected Finish: 2nd Place, NL East.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
2009 Preview: Atlanta Braves
The Braves had a rough 2008, injuries to their rotation coupled with offensive struggles made it very tough for them to stay in games, as they ended the year at 72-90. Jeff Francoeur's troubles lead to some concern about his future, it's not too often that a 24 year old's offensive game completely falls apart, however if he can improve his plate discipline he may be in line for a big rebound in '09. Free agent signings Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, and Garret Anderson should help plug some holes.
Projected Lineup:
C - Brian McCann
1B - Casey Kotchman
2B - Kelly Johnson
SS - Yunel Escobar
3B - Chipper Jones
LF - Garret Anderson
CF - Jordan Schafer
RF - Jeff Francoeur
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Derek Lowe
#2 - Javier Vazquez
#3 - Jiar Jurrjens
#4 - Kenshin Kawakami
#5 - Tom Glavine
Closer - Mike Gonzalez
Position Battles:
CF - Three young guns, Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco, and Jordan Schafer will battle it out in spring training. Schafer, a highly touted prospect, has the most upside of the bunch and appears to now have enough polish to be a productive at the major league level--he should come away with the job.
2009 Outlook: If Kotchman can hit for a little more power, and Francoeur can learn how to take a walk, they, and McCann, Jones, and Anderson should prove to be a solid lineup. Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson are one of the best offensive middle infield tandems in the National League and should continue to hit the ball well throughout the year.
Atlanta will feature a completely revamped rotation in 2009, headlined by veterans Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. Kenshin Kawakami comes over from the Japan and should be a durable strike thrower with solid control. Mike Gonzalez should handle the closing duties to start the season, he's had injury troubles in the past and if he ends up on the DL, Peter Moylan or Rafeal Soriano should get the first crack at the ninth inning role.
Projected Finish: 3rd Place, NL East.
Projected Lineup:
C - Brian McCann
1B - Casey Kotchman
2B - Kelly Johnson
SS - Yunel Escobar
3B - Chipper Jones
LF - Garret Anderson
CF - Jordan Schafer
RF - Jeff Francoeur
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Derek Lowe
#2 - Javier Vazquez
#3 - Jiar Jurrjens
#4 - Kenshin Kawakami
#5 - Tom Glavine
Closer - Mike Gonzalez
Position Battles:
CF - Three young guns, Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco, and Jordan Schafer will battle it out in spring training. Schafer, a highly touted prospect, has the most upside of the bunch and appears to now have enough polish to be a productive at the major league level--he should come away with the job.
2009 Outlook: If Kotchman can hit for a little more power, and Francoeur can learn how to take a walk, they, and McCann, Jones, and Anderson should prove to be a solid lineup. Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson are one of the best offensive middle infield tandems in the National League and should continue to hit the ball well throughout the year.
Atlanta will feature a completely revamped rotation in 2009, headlined by veterans Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. Kenshin Kawakami comes over from the Japan and should be a durable strike thrower with solid control. Mike Gonzalez should handle the closing duties to start the season, he's had injury troubles in the past and if he ends up on the DL, Peter Moylan or Rafeal Soriano should get the first crack at the ninth inning role.
Projected Finish: 3rd Place, NL East.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
2009 Preview: Florida Marlins
The Marlins were simply a mediocre team overall last year, and the finished with a mediocre record at 84-77. Hanley Ramirez continues to make a great case for the game's most exciting player and Dan Uggla has proven himself as a consistent 30 homerun threat. Josh Johnson made an incredibly quick return from Tommy John Surgery and pitched well during the second half of the year. With lots of talent in the minor leagues, the Marlins should only go up from here.
Projected Lineup:
C - John Baker
1B - Gaby Sanchez
2B - Dan Uggla
SS - Hanley Ramirez
3B - Jorge Cantu
LF - Jeremy Hermida
CF - Cameron Maybin
RF - Cody Ross
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Rickey Nolasco
#2 - Josh Johnson
#3 - Chris Volstad
#4 - Anibal Sanchez
#5 - Andrew Miller
Closer - Matt Lindstrom
Position Battles:
1B/3B - If Gaby Sanchez can prove that he can handle the load at first base, then Jorge Cantu will probably play at third base. Young gun Emilio Bonifacio is also threatening at third base; if Sanchez struggles during spring training, Cantu could move over to first base, which would open up a place for Banifacio to play.
2009 Outlook: Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla will once again lead the offensive charge, if Cody Ross and Gaby Sanchez can continue to develop into everyday players the Marlins should have enough fire power to compete. Top prospect Cameron Maybin should get the bulk of the playing time in centerfield, he will provide power and speed right away, but he will probably struggle to hit for any sort of average.
The pitching will be led by Johnson and Rickey Nolasco, both can be very effective and are definitely among the better starters in the National League. Flame-thrower Matt Lindstrom should be effective out of the 'pen and sophomore Chris Volstad will look to improve upon his performance in 2008.
Projected Finish: 4th Place, NL East.
Projected Lineup:
C - John Baker
1B - Gaby Sanchez
2B - Dan Uggla
SS - Hanley Ramirez
3B - Jorge Cantu
LF - Jeremy Hermida
CF - Cameron Maybin
RF - Cody Ross
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Rickey Nolasco
#2 - Josh Johnson
#3 - Chris Volstad
#4 - Anibal Sanchez
#5 - Andrew Miller
Closer - Matt Lindstrom
Position Battles:
1B/3B - If Gaby Sanchez can prove that he can handle the load at first base, then Jorge Cantu will probably play at third base. Young gun Emilio Bonifacio is also threatening at third base; if Sanchez struggles during spring training, Cantu could move over to first base, which would open up a place for Banifacio to play.
2009 Outlook: Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla will once again lead the offensive charge, if Cody Ross and Gaby Sanchez can continue to develop into everyday players the Marlins should have enough fire power to compete. Top prospect Cameron Maybin should get the bulk of the playing time in centerfield, he will provide power and speed right away, but he will probably struggle to hit for any sort of average.
The pitching will be led by Johnson and Rickey Nolasco, both can be very effective and are definitely among the better starters in the National League. Flame-thrower Matt Lindstrom should be effective out of the 'pen and sophomore Chris Volstad will look to improve upon his performance in 2008.
Projected Finish: 4th Place, NL East.
Monday, March 23, 2009
2009 Preview: Wasington Nationals
Coming into 2008, everyone expected the Nationals to be pretty bad...and they were as they finished the season with the worst record in MLB at 59-102. Injuries to Ryan Zimmerman, Elijah Dukes, and Lastings Milledge forced the Nats to use fringe players for a large amount of the season. A few weeks ago, word broke out about a scandel involving GM Jim Bowden and illegally signing Dominican prospects. On the bright side, Christian Guzman finally showed what he can do when he's healthy.
Projected Lineup:
C - Jesus Flores
1B - Adam Dunn
2B - Anderson Hernandez
SS - Christian Guzman
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
LF - Josh Willingham
CF - Lastings Milledge
RF - Elijah Dukes
Projected Rotation:
#1 - John Lannan
#2 - Scott Olsen
#3 - Daniel Cabrera
#4 - Jordan Zimmermann
#5 - Shaun Martis
Closer - Joel Hanrahan
Position Battles:
2B - Veteran Ronnie Belliard will fight with Anderson Hernandez for time at second base; it should come down to who had the better spring.
2009 Outlook: The Nationals had a controversial yet productive off-season, the signing of power hitter Adam Dunn should pay immediate dividends. Milledge, Zimmerman, Dukes, and Flores are all another year older and another step closer to becoming productive regulars and all-stars. They will still probably end up near the bottom of the offensive catogories, but that is to be expected from such a young lineup. Most of the hitters will need another year or two to deveolp, but once they blossom there could be a new power in the NL East.
As for the pitchers, Washington can make a very good case for having the absolute worst hurlers in the game. Their rotation will be "anchored" by Scott Olsen, the former Marlin who posted a 4.20 ERA last year and struck out just over 100 batters in 200 innings of work. Daniel Cabrera comes over from Baltimore; he has never posted an ERA less than 4.52 and is notorious for walking as many batters as he strikes out. There are two potential bright spot for the rotation, John Lannan posted a 3.91 ERA in 182 innings last year, while it was probably artificially inflated thanks to a .270 BABIP he is only 24 and expected to improve. Top prospect Jordan Zimmerman has pitched great this spring and profiles to be a #1 or #2 starter once he reaches his prime. The bullpen is also afwul, achored by Saul Rivera and Joel Hanrahan, who are above -average at best.
Projected FInish: 5th Place, NL East.
Projected Lineup:
C - Jesus Flores
1B - Adam Dunn
2B - Anderson Hernandez
SS - Christian Guzman
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
LF - Josh Willingham
CF - Lastings Milledge
RF - Elijah Dukes
Projected Rotation:
#1 - John Lannan
#2 - Scott Olsen
#3 - Daniel Cabrera
#4 - Jordan Zimmermann
#5 - Shaun Martis
Closer - Joel Hanrahan
Position Battles:
2B - Veteran Ronnie Belliard will fight with Anderson Hernandez for time at second base; it should come down to who had the better spring.
2009 Outlook: The Nationals had a controversial yet productive off-season, the signing of power hitter Adam Dunn should pay immediate dividends. Milledge, Zimmerman, Dukes, and Flores are all another year older and another step closer to becoming productive regulars and all-stars. They will still probably end up near the bottom of the offensive catogories, but that is to be expected from such a young lineup. Most of the hitters will need another year or two to deveolp, but once they blossom there could be a new power in the NL East.
As for the pitchers, Washington can make a very good case for having the absolute worst hurlers in the game. Their rotation will be "anchored" by Scott Olsen, the former Marlin who posted a 4.20 ERA last year and struck out just over 100 batters in 200 innings of work. Daniel Cabrera comes over from Baltimore; he has never posted an ERA less than 4.52 and is notorious for walking as many batters as he strikes out. There are two potential bright spot for the rotation, John Lannan posted a 3.91 ERA in 182 innings last year, while it was probably artificially inflated thanks to a .270 BABIP he is only 24 and expected to improve. Top prospect Jordan Zimmerman has pitched great this spring and profiles to be a #1 or #2 starter once he reaches his prime. The bullpen is also afwul, achored by Saul Rivera and Joel Hanrahan, who are above -average at best.
Projected FInish: 5th Place, NL East.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
2009 Preview: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs looked poised to make a run at their first World Series title in a century in 2008. With Kerry Wood penciled in as the closer, and rookie catcher Geovany Soto showing signs of an offensive breakout, the Cubs appeared well-rounded and ready to dominate the NL Central. At the end of the season the Cubs were firmly entrenched in first place; Soto became a top-5 catcher, Wood became a 40 save closer, and Mark Derosa and Ryan Theriot had career years. After aquiring starter Rich Harden from the A's, Chicago had their sights set on the World Series. But, yet again, they were bounced from the playoffs by the red-hot Dodgers.
Projected Lineup:
C - Geovany Soto
1B - Derrick Lee
2B - Mike Fontenot
SS - Ryan Theriot
3B - Aramis Rameriz
LF - Alfonso Soriano
CF - Kosuke Fukudome
RF - Milton Bradley
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Carlos Zambrano
#2 - Ryan Dempster
#3 - Rich Harden
#4 - Ted Lilly
#5 - Sean Marshall
Closer - Carlos Marmol
Position Battles:
Closer - Carlos Marmol has incredible stuff and a closer mentality, but Kevin Gregg has experience. They both might get a shot during the season, but Marmol should have the job to himself by the all-star break.
2009 Outlook: The Cubs are going to struggle more than people think on offense. Losing Mark DeRosa especially hurts. Don't expect much out of Milton Bradley, he is perpetually injured as a DH, now that he has switched leagues, he's going to have to play outfield which will add stress and cause him to miss even more games. Derek Lee's power has gone down the drain, Ryan theriot's .307 batting average was mostly fueled by a .340 BABIP, Kosuke Fukudome consistently declined each month (.791 OPS pre all-star break, .640 post all-star break), and Fontenot hasn't proved he can hit leftys. Luckily, Soriano, Soto, and Rameriez should be able to shoulder the load.
Chicago's starting pitching could also end up being a question mark. Carlos Zambrano may be declining early due to the high amounts of innings he threw early in his career, once known as a strikeout pitcher, his K/9 now only resides aroung 6.7; as a result his ERA is now just under 4. Rich Harden has proved time and again that he cannot stay healthy for an entire season, and Ted Lilly is durable but he's on the wrong side of 30. Dempster could anchor the rotation if he can continue to throw strikes, he's 31, but 4 years of closing helped keep his pitches down, which could lead to some longevity as a starter. Jeff Samardzija, Marmol and Gregg should give the Cubs a nice bullpen core.
Projected Finish: 1st Place, NL Central.
Projected Lineup:
C - Geovany Soto
1B - Derrick Lee
2B - Mike Fontenot
SS - Ryan Theriot
3B - Aramis Rameriz
LF - Alfonso Soriano
CF - Kosuke Fukudome
RF - Milton Bradley
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Carlos Zambrano
#2 - Ryan Dempster
#3 - Rich Harden
#4 - Ted Lilly
#5 - Sean Marshall
Closer - Carlos Marmol
Position Battles:
Closer - Carlos Marmol has incredible stuff and a closer mentality, but Kevin Gregg has experience. They both might get a shot during the season, but Marmol should have the job to himself by the all-star break.
2009 Outlook: The Cubs are going to struggle more than people think on offense. Losing Mark DeRosa especially hurts. Don't expect much out of Milton Bradley, he is perpetually injured as a DH, now that he has switched leagues, he's going to have to play outfield which will add stress and cause him to miss even more games. Derek Lee's power has gone down the drain, Ryan theriot's .307 batting average was mostly fueled by a .340 BABIP, Kosuke Fukudome consistently declined each month (.791 OPS pre all-star break, .640 post all-star break), and Fontenot hasn't proved he can hit leftys. Luckily, Soriano, Soto, and Rameriez should be able to shoulder the load.
Chicago's starting pitching could also end up being a question mark. Carlos Zambrano may be declining early due to the high amounts of innings he threw early in his career, once known as a strikeout pitcher, his K/9 now only resides aroung 6.7; as a result his ERA is now just under 4. Rich Harden has proved time and again that he cannot stay healthy for an entire season, and Ted Lilly is durable but he's on the wrong side of 30. Dempster could anchor the rotation if he can continue to throw strikes, he's 31, but 4 years of closing helped keep his pitches down, which could lead to some longevity as a starter. Jeff Samardzija, Marmol and Gregg should give the Cubs a nice bullpen core.
Projected Finish: 1st Place, NL Central.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
2009 Preview: St. Louis Cardinals
2008 was a bit of a disappointment for the Cardinals as they were never really in contention the entire year. Chris Carpenter did not return to previous form and only pitched 15 innings last year. Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Chris Perez all established themselves as quality major-leaguers.
Projected Lineup:
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Skip Schumaker
SS - Khalil Greene
3B - Troy Glaus
LF - Chris Duncan
CF - Rick Ankiel
RF - Ryan Ludwick
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Adam Wainwright
#2 - CHris Carpenter
#3 - Kyle Loshe
#4 - Todd Wellemeyer
#5 - Joel Pineiro
Closer - Jason Motte
Position Battles:
2B - There are questions about Schumaker's defense after converting from the outfield over the winter. If he can't handle it, Tyler Greene should get the first crack at a starting role.
3B - Troy Glaus is expected to miss the first 6-8 weeks of the season, but he should have his job when he returns. David Freese and Joe Mather are the frontrunners to fill in while Glaus is rehabbing. If neither of them can handle it, 2008 draft pick Brett Wallace could even get a chance.
Closer - Tony LaRussa has said that he will probably start the season with a closer by committee system which would include Jason Motte, Chris Perez, and Ryan Franklin. Either Perez or Motte could wrestle the job away by mid-season.
2009 Outlook: St. Louis' offense should have no problem scoring runs thanks to Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick and Troy Glaus. Pujols' elbow still has some question marks surrounding it, but that shouldn't stop him from putting up MVP-like numbers yet again. If Khalil Green can find his 2007 power and make more contact, they should especially tough.
The Cardinals pitching staff is a bit more of a question mark, IF Wainwright and Carpenter can stay healthy for a full year, IF Loshe and Wellemeyer can prove 2008 was not a fluke, IF their closer situation gets worked out then might a a chance to make a playoff run.
Projected Finish: 2nd Place, NL Central.
Projected Lineup:
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Skip Schumaker
SS - Khalil Greene
3B - Troy Glaus
LF - Chris Duncan
CF - Rick Ankiel
RF - Ryan Ludwick
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Adam Wainwright
#2 - CHris Carpenter
#3 - Kyle Loshe
#4 - Todd Wellemeyer
#5 - Joel Pineiro
Closer - Jason Motte
Position Battles:
2B - There are questions about Schumaker's defense after converting from the outfield over the winter. If he can't handle it, Tyler Greene should get the first crack at a starting role.
3B - Troy Glaus is expected to miss the first 6-8 weeks of the season, but he should have his job when he returns. David Freese and Joe Mather are the frontrunners to fill in while Glaus is rehabbing. If neither of them can handle it, 2008 draft pick Brett Wallace could even get a chance.
Closer - Tony LaRussa has said that he will probably start the season with a closer by committee system which would include Jason Motte, Chris Perez, and Ryan Franklin. Either Perez or Motte could wrestle the job away by mid-season.
2009 Outlook: St. Louis' offense should have no problem scoring runs thanks to Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick and Troy Glaus. Pujols' elbow still has some question marks surrounding it, but that shouldn't stop him from putting up MVP-like numbers yet again. If Khalil Green can find his 2007 power and make more contact, they should especially tough.
The Cardinals pitching staff is a bit more of a question mark, IF Wainwright and Carpenter can stay healthy for a full year, IF Loshe and Wellemeyer can prove 2008 was not a fluke, IF their closer situation gets worked out then might a a chance to make a playoff run.
Projected Finish: 2nd Place, NL Central.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
2009 Preview: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays had a very good year in 2008, but the fact that they play in the incredibly tough AL East took away from their good season. Roy Halladay was unbelievable for Toronto by winning 20 games and having a sub 3 ERA. AJ Burnett finally stayed healthy and showed how good he can be by winning 18 games and having 231 strike outs. Also, the baseball world was introduced to 20 year old Travis Snider and he did not disappoint. Snider hit .301 in 78 ABs, had 2 homeruns, 13 RBIs, and 9 runs. He made the most of the short time that he was in the majors. If the Blue Jays were in the NL West they would have won the division with their 86 - 74 record.
Projected Lineup:
C - Rod Barajas
1B - Lyle Overbay
2B - Aaron Hill
SS - John McDonald
3B - Scott Rolen
LF - Adam Lind
CF - Vernon Wells
RF - Alex Rios
DH - Travis Snider
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Roy Halladay
#2 - Jesse Litsch
#3 - David Purcey
#4 - Scott Richmond
#5 - Casey Janssen
Closer - BJ Ryan
2009 Outlook: The Blue Jays lost AJ Burnett in the off-season and that is a big loss for them because when he is healthy he is one of the top pitchers in the league. Roy Halladay should get close to 20 wins again and pitch well, Litsch should get to double digit wins, but nothing special, and David Purcey could get double digit wins as well, but again nothing special. After those three it is really down hill in the pitching department. Scott Richmond and Casey Janssen could get roughed up a lot in 2009 and that is going to hurt Toronto big time. They need as many wins as possible to compete with Tampa, Boston, and New York.
The offense looks as if it should be really good in 2009. Travis Snider will have more experience and only get better as the season goes on. Two big questions that Toronto has are with Alex Rios and Vernon Wells. Can Vernon Wells stay healthy and can Alex Rios make up his mind? Alex Rios either steals a lot of bases and does not hit homeruns or he hits homeruns and does not steal bases. He switched midway through the 2008 season. If Wells can stay healthy and Rios choses what he wants to do, then the offense will be ok, but the pitching will still hurt the team.
Projected Finish: 4th Place, AL East
Projected Lineup:
C - Rod Barajas
1B - Lyle Overbay
2B - Aaron Hill
SS - John McDonald
3B - Scott Rolen
LF - Adam Lind
CF - Vernon Wells
RF - Alex Rios
DH - Travis Snider
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Roy Halladay
#2 - Jesse Litsch
#3 - David Purcey
#4 - Scott Richmond
#5 - Casey Janssen
Closer - BJ Ryan
2009 Outlook: The Blue Jays lost AJ Burnett in the off-season and that is a big loss for them because when he is healthy he is one of the top pitchers in the league. Roy Halladay should get close to 20 wins again and pitch well, Litsch should get to double digit wins, but nothing special, and David Purcey could get double digit wins as well, but again nothing special. After those three it is really down hill in the pitching department. Scott Richmond and Casey Janssen could get roughed up a lot in 2009 and that is going to hurt Toronto big time. They need as many wins as possible to compete with Tampa, Boston, and New York.
The offense looks as if it should be really good in 2009. Travis Snider will have more experience and only get better as the season goes on. Two big questions that Toronto has are with Alex Rios and Vernon Wells. Can Vernon Wells stay healthy and can Alex Rios make up his mind? Alex Rios either steals a lot of bases and does not hit homeruns or he hits homeruns and does not steal bases. He switched midway through the 2008 season. If Wells can stay healthy and Rios choses what he wants to do, then the offense will be ok, but the pitching will still hurt the team.
Projected Finish: 4th Place, AL East
Saturday, March 14, 2009
2009 Preview: Baltimore Orioles
2008 was a bad year for the Orioles, plain and simple. They lost nearly 100 games, the pitching was awful, and every Sunday was an embarrassment in Baltimore. The only real positive was the offense they created, but even that could not cancel out the terrible pitching. The Orioles look to try and improve on their 68 - 93 record in 2008.
Projected Lineup:
C - Matt Wieters
1B - Aubrey Huff
2B - Brian Roberts
SS - Cesar Izturis
3B - Melvin Mora
LF - Felix Pie
CF - Adam Jones
RF - Nick Markakis
DH - Luke Scott
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Jeremy Guthrie
#2 - Koji Uehara
#3 - Chris Waters
#4 - Rich Hill
#5 - Radhames Liz
Closer - George Sherrill
Position Battles:
#4 and #5 Starters - Mark Hendrickson and Adam Eaton have a chance at the last two spots in the rotation. Whoever has the better spring should get the job.
Closer - George Sherrill struggled in the second half of last year and Chris Ray is returning from Tommy John Surgery, so they may split the closer duty throughout the season.
2009 Outlook: People have some reason to be excited in Baltimore, but not because of the performance of the team, but because of one player. Matt Wieters. He is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and he has everyone talking. Wieters is a switching hitting catcher who can hit for power and average and play his position well. Other than Wieters the team does not really look any better than it did last year. Jeremy Guthrie is their number one starter, so that shows you that the pitching staff is still not very good and the offense consists of either old players (on the decline) or young players that have not panned out. So it does not really look like another good season for the Orioles, especially playing in the AL East.
Projected Finish: 5th Place, AL East
Projected Lineup:
C - Matt Wieters
1B - Aubrey Huff
2B - Brian Roberts
SS - Cesar Izturis
3B - Melvin Mora
LF - Felix Pie
CF - Adam Jones
RF - Nick Markakis
DH - Luke Scott
Projected Rotation:
#1 - Jeremy Guthrie
#2 - Koji Uehara
#3 - Chris Waters
#4 - Rich Hill
#5 - Radhames Liz
Closer - George Sherrill
Position Battles:
#4 and #5 Starters - Mark Hendrickson and Adam Eaton have a chance at the last two spots in the rotation. Whoever has the better spring should get the job.
Closer - George Sherrill struggled in the second half of last year and Chris Ray is returning from Tommy John Surgery, so they may split the closer duty throughout the season.
2009 Outlook: People have some reason to be excited in Baltimore, but not because of the performance of the team, but because of one player. Matt Wieters. He is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and he has everyone talking. Wieters is a switching hitting catcher who can hit for power and average and play his position well. Other than Wieters the team does not really look any better than it did last year. Jeremy Guthrie is their number one starter, so that shows you that the pitching staff is still not very good and the offense consists of either old players (on the decline) or young players that have not panned out. So it does not really look like another good season for the Orioles, especially playing in the AL East.
Projected Finish: 5th Place, AL East
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