Thursday, January 29, 2009

Robinson's Rebound

After an impressive trio of seasons, Robinson Cano struggled mightily in 2008, posting a line of .271/.305/.410, well below his lifetime average of .303/.335/.468. At the beginning of the season the 26 year old was touted as a future batting champ and perennial all-star. So what made Robinson Cano so bad all of the sudden?

The majority of his troubles can be traced to a horrific April, when he hit .151/.211/.236. If we exclude April, Cano's batting average is actually .297. Cano was also plagued by a .286 BABIP which is much lower than his career .323 rate.

Cano's power numbers weren't too bad last year, his 14 homeruns and 35 doubles were down from 19 homeruns and 41 doubles the year before. These numbers are also mostly the result of bad luck and a lower homerun per flyball rate. His 20/47/33 LD/GB/FB rate* has also improved from his 2007 totals of 17/52/31.

Robinson Cano has all of the tools needed to become the all-star batting champion that he was projected to be when he first reached the majors. Last year he suffered from extremely bad luck and one terrible month. Neither should plague him as badly (if at all) in his 2009 campaign. With the acquisitions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, Cano is batting in an absolutely loaded lineup, so a jump in runs and RBI could be on it's way. If all goes well, Cano has an upside of .330/20/100.

*LD/GB/FB Rate is the percentage to linedrives (LD), groundballs (GB), and flyballs (FB) that a batter hits in a season. Linedrives usually correspond with batting average and gap power; flyballs correspond with homeruns; groundballs correspond with little more than outs.

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