#59 Will Inman, P, SD - The 21 year old had a solid season at AA posting a 3.65 ERA. Inman struck out 9.2 batters per 9 innings last year, however his K/BB rate was only 1.9--he'll need to improve upon that number if he wants to become a successful big league starter. Throughout his minor league career, Inman has been an extreme fly ball pitcher, only recording a 38% groundball rate last year; luckily for him San Deigo's Petco Park is the most pitcher friendly venue in all of baseball, so most of his flyballs will turn into outs instead of homeruns. He will probably contend for one of San Diego's rotation spots in spring training, however half a season at AAA to work on his control wouldn't hurt either.
#58 Austin Jackson, OF, NYY - Jackson's line of .284/.351/.415 at AA last year wasn't all that impressive, but the wind's that come off of the Delaware River behind Trenton's Waterfront Park make homeruns hits near impossible to come by. The 21 year old has fantastic speed and probably the upside of developing into a Curtis Granderson-like player, however it's more likely that Jackson will become a solid regular than an all-star. Jackson needs about half of a season at AAA so his bat can be effectively gauged, but if Nick Swisher or Brett Gardener can stick at centerfield, Jackson could be stuck in the minors for all of 2008.
#57 Gorkys Hernandez, OF, ATL - Blessed with fantastic speed, Hernandez is more of a track star than a baseball player right now. 2007 was a year of improvement for the 21 year old (20 through the entire season), at A+ he posted a line of .261/.343/.382. While it's still not a very impressive line, Hernandez dramatically improved his walk rate and his power numbers. Unfortunatly Hernandez is being held back by a 61% groundball rate, which killed his batting average and hindered his OBP and SLG even though he did improve his peripheral stats. Hernandez still has a long way to go but he's steadily improving and should reach AA in 2009. The Braves are jammed with outfield prospects right now so he does not have a clear path to the majors. If all goes well, he could be wearing a Braves uniform by mid-2010.
#56 Chris Marrero, OF, WAS - The 20 year old was injured for most of 2008 which halted his rapid progress through the Nationals system. In 2007, Marrero hit 23 homeruns and 35 doubles split between A- and A+. Some people are skeptical about his swing, they feel his mechanics will need to be overhauled before he reaches the upper levels of the minors. If he stays healthy and the swing doesn't become a problem, Marrero could be an annual 30 homerun hitter with a .270-.280 average in the majors. He still has a long way to go and the lost year hurts, but he should reach AA next year as a 20 year old which is a good sign in it's self. He could be playing in Washington by mid-2010.
#55 Carlos Santana, C, CLE - Formerly in the Dodgers system, Santana was the centerpiece of the Casey Blake trade. After two lackluster years, Santana broke out in 2008, compiling a line of .326/.431/.568 and even had 10 stolen bases. The switch-hitting catcher also has fantastic plate discipline walking more than he struck out last year. There are a few things to be wary of, Santana was 22 last year in A+, a level mostly populated by 20 and 21 year olds; he also played all season in the California league, the most hitter friendly league in the minors. If he proves that his 2008 season was for real, Santana could be Cleveland's catcher by opening day of 2010.
#54 Carlos Carrasco, P, PHI - After a mediocre season at AA, Carrasco was called up to AAA for the final month of the season where he took off, posting a 1.76 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 36 innings. The 21 year old features a low-90's fastball with decent movement, an average curveball which he struggles to control, and a plus changeup with very good movement. Carrasco's problems have all come from inconsistency--he is prone to extremely hot and cold months where his control varies wildly. If (that's a huge if) he can be more consistent, Carrasco could easily develop into an ace. He will fight for the #5 rotation spot in spring training but a full season at AAA would undoubtedly do him some good.
#53 J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR - The 22 year old split 2008 between A+ and AA posting a line of .298/.322/.527 with 27 homeruns and 105 RBI. The only flaw in Arencibia's game is the disturbing lack of plate discipline; he walked only 18 times last year while striking out 101 times, that number needs to improve before he can become an elite catching prospect. Catchers with that kind of pop don't come along that often so Arencibia could move very quickly through the rest of the minors. Look for him in a Toronto uniform as soon as September, 2009.
#52 Tyler Flowers, C, CHW - Acquired from the Braves during the off-season, Flowers followed a successful season at A+ with a smoking hot stint in the Arizona Fall League hitting .387 with 12 homeruns in just 75 at-bats. Flowers also has outstanding plate discipline, walking 98 times while striking out 102 times. The only knock on Flowers is that he spent all of 2008 at A+ as a 22 year old--however he proved that he was legit, excelling in the AFL against the top prospects in the minor leagues. He still needs more time in the minors, but Tyler Flowers could become the White Sox catcher by mid-2010.
#51 Matt Dominguez, 3B, FLA - The 9th overall pick in the 2007 draft had a solid first full minor league season hitting .296 with 18 homeruns and 70 RBI in only 345 at-bats in A-. His plate discipline could be a little better but is not very concerning for the 19 year old. While he has a very good bat, Dominguez is actually known for his outstanding defense at the hot corner. If he can improve his plate discipline, Dominguez should fly through the minors and should win a few Gold Gloves by the time his career is over. Assuming all goes well, his ETA is late-2011.
#50 Carlos Triunfel, SS/2B, SEA - Seattle's whiz-kid has been in A+ since he was 17 years old. Last year as an 18 year old, Triunfel compiled a line of .284/.332/.401 with 8 homeruns in 479 at-bats. He is already showing solid plate discipline with a .51 K/BB ratio--this number should improve as he gets older. Triunfel will probably outgrow shortstop and have to move to either second or third base down the road. His power should improve as his frame fills out, which should make him a perennial all-star once he reaches the majors. He still has a long way to go, look for him to be in Seattle by late-2011.
Tine in again next Saturday, February 6th, for prospects #49-40.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Robinson's Rebound
After an impressive trio of seasons, Robinson Cano struggled mightily in 2008, posting a line of .271/.305/.410, well below his lifetime average of .303/.335/.468. At the beginning of the season the 26 year old was touted as a future batting champ and perennial all-star. So what made Robinson Cano so bad all of the sudden?
The majority of his troubles can be traced to a horrific April, when he hit .151/.211/.236. If we exclude April, Cano's batting average is actually .297. Cano was also plagued by a .286 BABIP which is much lower than his career .323 rate.
Cano's power numbers weren't too bad last year, his 14 homeruns and 35 doubles were down from 19 homeruns and 41 doubles the year before. These numbers are also mostly the result of bad luck and a lower homerun per flyball rate. His 20/47/33 LD/GB/FB rate* has also improved from his 2007 totals of 17/52/31.
Robinson Cano has all of the tools needed to become the all-star batting champion that he was projected to be when he first reached the majors. Last year he suffered from extremely bad luck and one terrible month. Neither should plague him as badly (if at all) in his 2009 campaign. With the acquisitions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, Cano is batting in an absolutely loaded lineup, so a jump in runs and RBI could be on it's way. If all goes well, Cano has an upside of .330/20/100.
*LD/GB/FB Rate is the percentage to linedrives (LD), groundballs (GB), and flyballs (FB) that a batter hits in a season. Linedrives usually correspond with batting average and gap power; flyballs correspond with homeruns; groundballs correspond with little more than outs.
The majority of his troubles can be traced to a horrific April, when he hit .151/.211/.236. If we exclude April, Cano's batting average is actually .297. Cano was also plagued by a .286 BABIP which is much lower than his career .323 rate.
Cano's power numbers weren't too bad last year, his 14 homeruns and 35 doubles were down from 19 homeruns and 41 doubles the year before. These numbers are also mostly the result of bad luck and a lower homerun per flyball rate. His 20/47/33 LD/GB/FB rate* has also improved from his 2007 totals of 17/52/31.
Robinson Cano has all of the tools needed to become the all-star batting champion that he was projected to be when he first reached the majors. Last year he suffered from extremely bad luck and one terrible month. Neither should plague him as badly (if at all) in his 2009 campaign. With the acquisitions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, Cano is batting in an absolutely loaded lineup, so a jump in runs and RBI could be on it's way. If all goes well, Cano has an upside of .330/20/100.
*LD/GB/FB Rate is the percentage to linedrives (LD), groundballs (GB), and flyballs (FB) that a batter hits in a season. Linedrives usually correspond with batting average and gap power; flyballs correspond with homeruns; groundballs correspond with little more than outs.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Jose Who?
Everyone knows about the superstar second basemen in the MLB: Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, etc. One player who does not get the recognition that he deserves is Jose Lopez of the Seattle Mariners. The fact that he plays on a sub par Seattle team is probably a big reason that many people do not know about him. He just turned 24 years old in November and he has been in the league since the age of 20.
Last year, in 159 games, he hit 17 home runs (same as Pedroia), drove in 89 RBIs (more than Pedroia), and had a .297 average (higher than Utley’s). So his stats are up there with the premier second basemen in the league and he should only get better. In 2007, in 149 games, he hit 11 home runs, had 62 RBIs and hit .252; which is an improvement from his 2006 statistics. Each year Lopez is improving his stats and it looks like he will improve on them again in 2008 and truly establish himself as one of the top second basemen in the league.
Fantasy Note: Jose Lopez is a great steal in the later rounds of a fantasy league draft and is only a little drop off from the top second basemen in the league.
Last year, in 159 games, he hit 17 home runs (same as Pedroia), drove in 89 RBIs (more than Pedroia), and had a .297 average (higher than Utley’s). So his stats are up there with the premier second basemen in the league and he should only get better. In 2007, in 149 games, he hit 11 home runs, had 62 RBIs and hit .252; which is an improvement from his 2006 statistics. Each year Lopez is improving his stats and it looks like he will improve on them again in 2008 and truly establish himself as one of the top second basemen in the league.
Fantasy Note: Jose Lopez is a great steal in the later rounds of a fantasy league draft and is only a little drop off from the top second basemen in the league.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Andre Ethier - Hidden Gem
Before 2008, Andre Ethier was thought of as a run of the mill hitter stuck in the crowded Dodgers outfield. However, last year he separated himself from the rest of the pack posting a line of .305/.375/.510 and hitting 20 homeruns.
Ethier doesn't get a lot of press because no one stat or skill of his especially sticks out. Let's face it, a guy who hits .300 with 20 homers and doesn't steal many bases isn't regarded as a superstar. To really assess Ethier's value we have to dig deeper than his surface stats.
While Ethier doesn't hit gaudy amounts of homeruns, he does have excellent gap power, hitting 38 doubles last year. His walk rate has increased each year that he has been in the league and now sits at a solid 10.1%. Ethier led the league in line drive rate last year, which means that in the future, his batting average could continue to rise--as line drives have the greatest probability of becoming hits, whereas fly balls and grounders are easier for the fielders to make plays on.
Ethier, who will be 27 next year is just reaching his prime and could see a jump across the board in his stats next year. He couples plate discipline with fantastic contact skills and enough power to be an all-star in 2009. If Manny Ramirez does not return, Ethier could get moved to the #5 spot in the order which would mean he will get more at-bats with runners in scoring position, a season line of 25/100/.320 is not out of the question.
Ethier doesn't get a lot of press because no one stat or skill of his especially sticks out. Let's face it, a guy who hits .300 with 20 homers and doesn't steal many bases isn't regarded as a superstar. To really assess Ethier's value we have to dig deeper than his surface stats.
While Ethier doesn't hit gaudy amounts of homeruns, he does have excellent gap power, hitting 38 doubles last year. His walk rate has increased each year that he has been in the league and now sits at a solid 10.1%. Ethier led the league in line drive rate last year, which means that in the future, his batting average could continue to rise--as line drives have the greatest probability of becoming hits, whereas fly balls and grounders are easier for the fielders to make plays on.
Ethier, who will be 27 next year is just reaching his prime and could see a jump across the board in his stats next year. He couples plate discipline with fantastic contact skills and enough power to be an all-star in 2009. If Manny Ramirez does not return, Ethier could get moved to the #5 spot in the order which would mean he will get more at-bats with runners in scoring position, a season line of 25/100/.320 is not out of the question.
Monday, January 26, 2009
What Will Become of Conor Jackson?
Fun fact: Of all first basemen with at least 500 plate appearances, Conor Jackson finished last in home runs with 12.
Throughout his minor league career, Conor Jackson was known as a hitter with "developing power." A doubles hitter who was eventually supposed to turn his extra-base hits into homeruns. Now 26 years old, and playing in Chase Field, one of the most homerun friendly venues in the major leagues, it seems safe to say that his power is not coming--at least not in the amount that was originally expected from him.
It's no secret that teams expect superior power numbers out of their first baseman-- power numbers that Jackson doesn't have. Even though he can't mash the ball like Ryan Howard, Jackson can still be extremely productive.
While he doesn't have homerun power, Jackson does possess solid gap-power, hitting 31 doubles last year. His line drive rate was the best of his career at 22% (anything above 20% is considered great), he should be able to sustain and maybe even build upon this impressive figure. CoJack also shows fantastic plate discipline, walking as much as he strikes out, and above average speed from a notoriously slow position, stealing 10 bases (second most of all first basemen last year).
As for Jackson's power over the next couple of years, it should hover around 15 homeruns. His flyball rate and homerun per flyball rate dropped a bit last year, they both ended up falling a good amount behind his career norms so a rebound could come next year. Jackson is also entering the prime of his career and with a little luck he could hit as many as 20 homeruns this year.
The bottom line is that Conor Jackson is more valuable than he is perceived to be. His line last year was .300/.376/.446; players who can put up those numbers, from any position, don't grow on trees. Even though he does not fit the heavy, mashing first basemen stereotype, he makes up for his lack of longballs with excellent plate discipline, good speed, and fantastic contact skills. Look for Jackson to take another step forward in 2009.
Throughout his minor league career, Conor Jackson was known as a hitter with "developing power." A doubles hitter who was eventually supposed to turn his extra-base hits into homeruns. Now 26 years old, and playing in Chase Field, one of the most homerun friendly venues in the major leagues, it seems safe to say that his power is not coming--at least not in the amount that was originally expected from him.
It's no secret that teams expect superior power numbers out of their first baseman-- power numbers that Jackson doesn't have. Even though he can't mash the ball like Ryan Howard, Jackson can still be extremely productive.
While he doesn't have homerun power, Jackson does possess solid gap-power, hitting 31 doubles last year. His line drive rate was the best of his career at 22% (anything above 20% is considered great), he should be able to sustain and maybe even build upon this impressive figure. CoJack also shows fantastic plate discipline, walking as much as he strikes out, and above average speed from a notoriously slow position, stealing 10 bases (second most of all first basemen last year).
As for Jackson's power over the next couple of years, it should hover around 15 homeruns. His flyball rate and homerun per flyball rate dropped a bit last year, they both ended up falling a good amount behind his career norms so a rebound could come next year. Jackson is also entering the prime of his career and with a little luck he could hit as many as 20 homeruns this year.
The bottom line is that Conor Jackson is more valuable than he is perceived to be. His line last year was .300/.376/.446; players who can put up those numbers, from any position, don't grow on trees. Even though he does not fit the heavy, mashing first basemen stereotype, he makes up for his lack of longballs with excellent plate discipline, good speed, and fantastic contact skills. Look for Jackson to take another step forward in 2009.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Carlos Gonzalez, Star or Scrub?
After breaking out in 2006 at A+, Carlos Gonzalez has endured a steady path through the minors and reached the majors last year, compiling 302 at-bats. Throughout his minor league career, Gonzalez has shown a tantalizing mix of power and speed that made teams drool over his potential.
When he reached Oakland, Gonzalez struggled mightily, compiling a line of .242/.273/.361 hitting 4 homers and 26 RBI. The 23 year old showed absolutely no plate discipline, walking only 13 times while striking out 81.
Over the off-season, Gonzalez was shipped to Colorado as part of the Matt Holliday trade. If there is any environment for Gonzalez to thrive in, Colorado is the one. The Rockies are in the midst of a rebuilding year and currently have an open center field position that will be able to get Gonzalez regular at-bats. In the thin air, he has a chance to put up some gaudy offensive numbers over the next few years if he can harness his talent.
Gonzalez has good speed, and an incredible throwing arm which make him a very good choice to patrol the wide outfields of Coors Field. The Rockies are going to give him every opportunity to succeed next year, and if he can improve his terrible plate discipline (that's a big if) his offensive game should come together nicely.
When he reached Oakland, Gonzalez struggled mightily, compiling a line of .242/.273/.361 hitting 4 homers and 26 RBI. The 23 year old showed absolutely no plate discipline, walking only 13 times while striking out 81.
Over the off-season, Gonzalez was shipped to Colorado as part of the Matt Holliday trade. If there is any environment for Gonzalez to thrive in, Colorado is the one. The Rockies are in the midst of a rebuilding year and currently have an open center field position that will be able to get Gonzalez regular at-bats. In the thin air, he has a chance to put up some gaudy offensive numbers over the next few years if he can harness his talent.
Gonzalez has good speed, and an incredible throwing arm which make him a very good choice to patrol the wide outfields of Coors Field. The Rockies are going to give him every opportunity to succeed next year, and if he can improve his terrible plate discipline (that's a big if) his offensive game should come together nicely.
How Bad is Michael Bourn?
Michael Bourn finally got a gig as the Astros starting center fielder and stole 41 bases in 477 at-bats last year. How bad could a guy who plays everyday really be?
Pretty bad.
As a prospect, Bourn never hit for much power, posting a .392 slugging pct. in 4 minor league seasons. While he struggled to hit for power, Bourn did have electrifying speed, stealing 164 bases in the minors, and on good base skills, compiling a .377 OBP. When he reached Philadelphia in 2007, it appeared that Bourn could become a successful leadoff man.
After being released by Philadelphia in the off-season, Bourn signed with Houston and won the centerfield job in spring training. Over the 2008 season he produced one of the worst lines in recent memory.
5 HR, 29 RBI, .229/.288/.300
It gets worse, Bourn hit only 10 doubles all year. For comparisons sake, Dustin Pedroia hit 10 doubles the week of April 20th. In fact, the last player to hit 10 or less doubles with at least 450 at-bats is Eric Yielding, who hit 9 in 1990.
Instead of "how bad is Michael Bourn?" maybe a better question would be "how did the Astros let Bourn play all season?"
Seasons like this don't come along all that often because usually if a player is performing as badly as Bourn, they are benched by coaches, or released by general managers, or run out of town by angry mobs.
It appears Michael Bourn does not yet have the skills necessary to become a successful lead-off man in the major leagues. He has tremendous speed, but, as the old adage goes, "you can't steal first base." Look for Bourn to have a much more limited role in the Astros offense (if any) in 2009.
Pretty bad.
As a prospect, Bourn never hit for much power, posting a .392 slugging pct. in 4 minor league seasons. While he struggled to hit for power, Bourn did have electrifying speed, stealing 164 bases in the minors, and on good base skills, compiling a .377 OBP. When he reached Philadelphia in 2007, it appeared that Bourn could become a successful leadoff man.
After being released by Philadelphia in the off-season, Bourn signed with Houston and won the centerfield job in spring training. Over the 2008 season he produced one of the worst lines in recent memory.
5 HR, 29 RBI, .229/.288/.300
It gets worse, Bourn hit only 10 doubles all year. For comparisons sake, Dustin Pedroia hit 10 doubles the week of April 20th. In fact, the last player to hit 10 or less doubles with at least 450 at-bats is Eric Yielding, who hit 9 in 1990.
Instead of "how bad is Michael Bourn?" maybe a better question would be "how did the Astros let Bourn play all season?"
Seasons like this don't come along all that often because usually if a player is performing as badly as Bourn, they are benched by coaches, or released by general managers, or run out of town by angry mobs.
It appears Michael Bourn does not yet have the skills necessary to become a successful lead-off man in the major leagues. He has tremendous speed, but, as the old adage goes, "you can't steal first base." Look for Bourn to have a much more limited role in the Astros offense (if any) in 2009.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Jo-Jo Reyes: Good, Bad, or Ugly?
Last year, the Braves, desperate for pitching help, after three of their starters had been placed on the disabled list, called up 23 year old Jo-Jo Reyes to fill in while their pitchers recovered. It proved to be a long season for Reyes, he finished 2008 going 3-11 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, but was he really that bad?
The Good: Before his call-up, Reyes as pitching very well in AAA, posting a 8.8 K/9 and 2.4 K/BB rate which was good for a 2.31 ERA. In the majors, Reyes coupled a 6.2 K/9 rate with a very good 48% groundball rate. He's only 23.
The Bad: Reyes' K/BB rate over his major league stint was just 1.5, that means that he was striking out less batters, and walking more.
The Ugly: His 1.43 HR/9 rate; this coupled with his poor 1.5 K/BB means he was making a lot of mistakes with his pitches.
Though his 2008 was very rough, Reyes has a promising minor league track record, his career minor league rates are 8.8 K/9 2.6 K/BB and .33 HR/9. This means that Reyes will probably revert to these tendencies in the future, and that his ugly HR/9 rate in the majors last year will likely fall to an acceptable level.
Reyes was also plagued by a 68.4 LOB% and a .325 BABIP (for clarifications on these stats check out the statistics primer) which means he was incredibly unlucky. In the future, his luck should improve and these numbers should revert around the league average (72% LOB, .300 BABIP).
Ultimately, there were a bunch of factors that plagued Jo-Jo Reyes' 2008 season, but it looks like most of them were just the results of a small sample size. His underlying skills are very good and his luck should improve next year. Look for Reyes to be much better in 2009.
The Good: Before his call-up, Reyes as pitching very well in AAA, posting a 8.8 K/9 and 2.4 K/BB rate which was good for a 2.31 ERA. In the majors, Reyes coupled a 6.2 K/9 rate with a very good 48% groundball rate. He's only 23.
The Bad: Reyes' K/BB rate over his major league stint was just 1.5, that means that he was striking out less batters, and walking more.
The Ugly: His 1.43 HR/9 rate; this coupled with his poor 1.5 K/BB means he was making a lot of mistakes with his pitches.
Though his 2008 was very rough, Reyes has a promising minor league track record, his career minor league rates are 8.8 K/9 2.6 K/BB and .33 HR/9. This means that Reyes will probably revert to these tendencies in the future, and that his ugly HR/9 rate in the majors last year will likely fall to an acceptable level.
Reyes was also plagued by a 68.4 LOB% and a .325 BABIP (for clarifications on these stats check out the statistics primer) which means he was incredibly unlucky. In the future, his luck should improve and these numbers should revert around the league average (72% LOB, .300 BABIP).
Ultimately, there were a bunch of factors that plagued Jo-Jo Reyes' 2008 season, but it looks like most of them were just the results of a small sample size. His underlying skills are very good and his luck should improve next year. Look for Reyes to be much better in 2009.
Top 100 Prospects: 69-60
#69 Wilmer Flores, SS, NYM - The 17 year old posted a very good line at rookie league hitting 8/41/.310 in 265 at-bats. He only walked 12 times however he struck out just 28, showing that he can put the ball in play. He's currently listed at 6'3, 175 pounds, so it's likely that he will outgrow shortstop and have to move to third base where his bat should play fine. If he improve his plate discipline and stay healthy, Flores should hit for both power and average, but probably not before 2013 at the earliest.
#68 Andrew Lambo, OF, LAD - Lambo posted solid numbers at A- in 2008, hitting 15/79/.288 in 469 at-bats. The 20 year old struck out 109 times while only drawing 41 walks. The Dodgers' outfield is crowded right now so they can afford to be patient with Lambo, who will need a few more years of seasoning in the minors. Look for him in a Dodger uniform by late-2012.
#67 Andrew Brackman, P, NYY - Standing 6'10 Brackman is an imposing force on the mound--when healthy. He was out all of last year, recovering from Tommy John Surgery and should be ready for 2009. Before the injury, Brackman coupled his upper 90's fastball with a plus curveball. This will be his first professional season, and if he pitches well, he could move quickly through the system and reach the Yankees by mid-2010.
#66 Jose Ceda, P, FLA - The 21 year old was dominant as a reliever last year, striking out over 12 batters per 9 innings in AA. He has a fastball that sits in the upper 90's with great movement, and a very good power-slider. Now some struggles as a starter, Ceda should move very quickly through the system and probably make his major league debut y mid-season.
#65 Adam Miller, P. CLE - Miller suffered yet another injury-plagued season, with held him to only 28 innings in AAA last year. He throws both 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs along with a fantastic slider, which could help him become a front-line starter, or if his injury woes continue, a lights-out closer. Expect to see him in Cleveland as soon as mid-season if he can stay healthy.
#64 Kyle Blanks, 1B, SD - Weighing in at almost 300 pounds, the 6'6 Blanks has tons of power. Last year he showed he could hit for average and walk too, posting a line of .325/.404/.514 and belting 20 homeruns in 492 at-bats at AA. He actually stole 5 bases last year, nevertheless he will still need to keep his weight in check as he gets older. He is currently blocked by Adrian Gonzalez at first base, if rumors about a Gonzalez trade come true, Blanks could become San Diego's starting 1st baseman by mid-season.
#63 James McDonald, P, LAD - The converted outfielder, tore up AA last year, striking out almost a batter per nine innings and posting a 3.19 ERA. McDonald finished the year as a reliever for the Dodgers in September and should fight f0r a rotation spot this spring. He has a low 90's fastball, a very good curveball, and an average change-up, all of which he can throw for strikes. He appears to be an extreme flyball pitcher, but that shouldn't be a problem in the wide outfields at Dodger Stadium. He has a very good chance to open 2009 as the Dodgers #5 starter.
#62 Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, KC - The 24 year old destroyed AA and AAA last year posting a combined line of .313/.457/.629. Obviously, he is very old for his levels but he showed incredible plate discipline walking 104 times compared to just 66 strikeouts. He is blocked by Mile Jacobs and Billy Butler at 1B and DH respectively, but if he can put up another dominant half-season in the minors, Kansas City will have no choice but to call him up. Look for him by mid-season if all goes well.
#61 Cedric Hunter, OF, SD - Hunter posted an incredible 92% contact rate last year, one of the highest in the minor leagues. The 20 year old compiled a line of .318/.362/.442 last year in A+. He will never hit for much power, but if he could walk more, Hunter could become a successful leadoff man with the skills to get hit for high average and steal bases. He still has a long way to go, but we could see Hunter in a Padres uniform by late 2011.
#60 Scott Elbert, P, LAD - The 23 year old lefty came back from minor offseason shoulder surgery as a reliever to pitch very well in AA and eventually earn a September call-up. It's unknown if the Dodgers will attempt to make Elbert a starter again, if they do, he could develop into an ace, however there is a big injury risk involved. If the Dodgers keep Elbert as a relief pitcher, he could start the season in their bullpen and eventually become an elite closer.
That concludes #69-60, tune in next Saturday, 1/31, as we count down #59-50.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
#68 Andrew Lambo, OF, LAD - Lambo posted solid numbers at A- in 2008, hitting 15/79/.288 in 469 at-bats. The 20 year old struck out 109 times while only drawing 41 walks. The Dodgers' outfield is crowded right now so they can afford to be patient with Lambo, who will need a few more years of seasoning in the minors. Look for him in a Dodger uniform by late-2012.
#67 Andrew Brackman, P, NYY - Standing 6'10 Brackman is an imposing force on the mound--when healthy. He was out all of last year, recovering from Tommy John Surgery and should be ready for 2009. Before the injury, Brackman coupled his upper 90's fastball with a plus curveball. This will be his first professional season, and if he pitches well, he could move quickly through the system and reach the Yankees by mid-2010.
#66 Jose Ceda, P, FLA - The 21 year old was dominant as a reliever last year, striking out over 12 batters per 9 innings in AA. He has a fastball that sits in the upper 90's with great movement, and a very good power-slider. Now some struggles as a starter, Ceda should move very quickly through the system and probably make his major league debut y mid-season.
#65 Adam Miller, P. CLE - Miller suffered yet another injury-plagued season, with held him to only 28 innings in AAA last year. He throws both 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs along with a fantastic slider, which could help him become a front-line starter, or if his injury woes continue, a lights-out closer. Expect to see him in Cleveland as soon as mid-season if he can stay healthy.
#64 Kyle Blanks, 1B, SD - Weighing in at almost 300 pounds, the 6'6 Blanks has tons of power. Last year he showed he could hit for average and walk too, posting a line of .325/.404/.514 and belting 20 homeruns in 492 at-bats at AA. He actually stole 5 bases last year, nevertheless he will still need to keep his weight in check as he gets older. He is currently blocked by Adrian Gonzalez at first base, if rumors about a Gonzalez trade come true, Blanks could become San Diego's starting 1st baseman by mid-season.
#63 James McDonald, P, LAD - The converted outfielder, tore up AA last year, striking out almost a batter per nine innings and posting a 3.19 ERA. McDonald finished the year as a reliever for the Dodgers in September and should fight f0r a rotation spot this spring. He has a low 90's fastball, a very good curveball, and an average change-up, all of which he can throw for strikes. He appears to be an extreme flyball pitcher, but that shouldn't be a problem in the wide outfields at Dodger Stadium. He has a very good chance to open 2009 as the Dodgers #5 starter.
#62 Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, KC - The 24 year old destroyed AA and AAA last year posting a combined line of .313/.457/.629. Obviously, he is very old for his levels but he showed incredible plate discipline walking 104 times compared to just 66 strikeouts. He is blocked by Mile Jacobs and Billy Butler at 1B and DH respectively, but if he can put up another dominant half-season in the minors, Kansas City will have no choice but to call him up. Look for him by mid-season if all goes well.
#61 Cedric Hunter, OF, SD - Hunter posted an incredible 92% contact rate last year, one of the highest in the minor leagues. The 20 year old compiled a line of .318/.362/.442 last year in A+. He will never hit for much power, but if he could walk more, Hunter could become a successful leadoff man with the skills to get hit for high average and steal bases. He still has a long way to go, but we could see Hunter in a Padres uniform by late 2011.
#60 Scott Elbert, P, LAD - The 23 year old lefty came back from minor offseason shoulder surgery as a reliever to pitch very well in AA and eventually earn a September call-up. It's unknown if the Dodgers will attempt to make Elbert a starter again, if they do, he could develop into an ace, however there is a big injury risk involved. If the Dodgers keep Elbert as a relief pitcher, he could start the season in their bullpen and eventually become an elite closer.
That concludes #69-60, tune in next Saturday, 1/31, as we count down #59-50.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Top 100 Prospects: 79-70
#79 Julio Teheran, P, ATL - The 17 year old only threw 12 innings in rookie league ball last year so at this point there is still a lot unknown about him. Teheran throws in the low 90's with an expected increase in velocity as he fills out. He is currently listed at 6'2 150 pounds, so he has plenty of room to add muscle. He should be back in rookie ball next year and probably won't be playing in Atlanta before 2012.
#78 Brett Cecil, P, TOR - Cecil took a big step forward last year, moving from A+ all the way to AAA before the year was done. The 22 year old struggled a little bit in the 6 games he played in AAA, walking more batters than he had in previous levels. He has a chance to reach the rotation by mid-season if he continues to pitch well.
#77 Cale Iorg, SS, DET - If you don't know his story you may be wondering why we put a 23 year old who hasn't made it past A+ in the top 100. Iorg, who was drafted in the 1st round out after his freshman year of college, proceeded to embark on a mormon mission to Portugal for 2 years. Last year was Iorg's first full pro season, he looked rusty at first but then showed his power/speed potential later on in the season. He could be in Detroit as soon as 2011.
#76 Reid Brignac, SS, TB - After his breakout 2006 season at A+ where he posted a line of 21/83/.326, Brignac slipped a bit over his '07 campaign at AA, showing power (17 homeruns) but not the contact skills (.263 average) that made him a top prospect. In 2008, Brignac posted a line of 9/43/.250 in 386 AAA at-bats. Brignac could probably use another season in the minors and should start 2010 on the Rays.
#75 Henry Rodriguez, P, OAK - The flamethrowing righty's fastball sits in the upper 90's and regularly touches 100. While velocity and movement have never been Rodriguez's problems, he has struggled mightly with control. Oakland has used him as a starter so far, but a move to the bullpen could be in his near future where he could be an electric closer. If he succeeds as a relever, Rodriguez could rech Oakland by mid-season.
#74 Casey Weathers, P, COL - Colorado's 1st round pick in 2007 posessess an upper 90's fastball and a slider that can reach the low-90's. Weathers had a fantastic 2008 season at AA and was poised for a September call-up until he hurt his elbow. Weathers had Tommie John Surgery in early September and should be ready for 2010 where he will fight for a relief role with Colorado.
#73 Chris Carter, OF, OAK - Carter couples power with solid plate discipline. Last year he compiled a line of 39/106/.259 with a .361 OBP. Carter did have 156 strikeouts but he draws enough walks to combat his free swinging. The 21 year old should be up by late 2010.
#72 Freddy Freeman, OF, ATL - The 19 year old broke out last year in A- compiling a line of 18/95/.315 in 489 at-bats. If he can draw more walks, Freeman should devoelp into a regular outfielder in the majors by 2011.
#71 Jake Arrieta, P, BAL - Last year, Arrieta showed the ability to strike batters out while maintaining solid control and limiting homeruns. At 22 Arrieta was a little old for his level but he still shows the potential to be a #2 or #3 starter in the big leagues. Look for him to be entrenched in Baltimore's rotation by opening day of 2010
#70 Ben Revere, OF, MIN - The 20 year old's first full campaign turned out to be a success. Revere showed impressive on-base skills posting a .429 OBP in 339 at-bats. While he will probably never show much power, Revere should be a dynamic lead-off hitter when he reaches Minnesota. Looki for him to be up around mid-2011.
Tune in again next Saturday, January 24th, for #69-60.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
#78 Brett Cecil, P, TOR - Cecil took a big step forward last year, moving from A+ all the way to AAA before the year was done. The 22 year old struggled a little bit in the 6 games he played in AAA, walking more batters than he had in previous levels. He has a chance to reach the rotation by mid-season if he continues to pitch well.
#77 Cale Iorg, SS, DET - If you don't know his story you may be wondering why we put a 23 year old who hasn't made it past A+ in the top 100. Iorg, who was drafted in the 1st round out after his freshman year of college, proceeded to embark on a mormon mission to Portugal for 2 years. Last year was Iorg's first full pro season, he looked rusty at first but then showed his power/speed potential later on in the season. He could be in Detroit as soon as 2011.
#76 Reid Brignac, SS, TB - After his breakout 2006 season at A+ where he posted a line of 21/83/.326, Brignac slipped a bit over his '07 campaign at AA, showing power (17 homeruns) but not the contact skills (.263 average) that made him a top prospect. In 2008, Brignac posted a line of 9/43/.250 in 386 AAA at-bats. Brignac could probably use another season in the minors and should start 2010 on the Rays.
#75 Henry Rodriguez, P, OAK - The flamethrowing righty's fastball sits in the upper 90's and regularly touches 100. While velocity and movement have never been Rodriguez's problems, he has struggled mightly with control. Oakland has used him as a starter so far, but a move to the bullpen could be in his near future where he could be an electric closer. If he succeeds as a relever, Rodriguez could rech Oakland by mid-season.
#74 Casey Weathers, P, COL - Colorado's 1st round pick in 2007 posessess an upper 90's fastball and a slider that can reach the low-90's. Weathers had a fantastic 2008 season at AA and was poised for a September call-up until he hurt his elbow. Weathers had Tommie John Surgery in early September and should be ready for 2010 where he will fight for a relief role with Colorado.
#73 Chris Carter, OF, OAK - Carter couples power with solid plate discipline. Last year he compiled a line of 39/106/.259 with a .361 OBP. Carter did have 156 strikeouts but he draws enough walks to combat his free swinging. The 21 year old should be up by late 2010.
#72 Freddy Freeman, OF, ATL - The 19 year old broke out last year in A- compiling a line of 18/95/.315 in 489 at-bats. If he can draw more walks, Freeman should devoelp into a regular outfielder in the majors by 2011.
#71 Jake Arrieta, P, BAL - Last year, Arrieta showed the ability to strike batters out while maintaining solid control and limiting homeruns. At 22 Arrieta was a little old for his level but he still shows the potential to be a #2 or #3 starter in the big leagues. Look for him to be entrenched in Baltimore's rotation by opening day of 2010
#70 Ben Revere, OF, MIN - The 20 year old's first full campaign turned out to be a success. Revere showed impressive on-base skills posting a .429 OBP in 339 at-bats. While he will probably never show much power, Revere should be a dynamic lead-off hitter when he reaches Minnesota. Looki for him to be up around mid-2011.
Tune in again next Saturday, January 24th, for #69-60.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
What Happened to Cliff Lee?
At this point everyone knows the story of Cliff Lee, in 2007 he had injury problems, pitched terribly and was eventually sent down to AAA. In 2008, we saw a new Lee, one we had never seen before--at least not to this magnitude. Lee ended up taking home the AL Cy Young award after a brilliant season. So what happened during the off-season that transformed Cliff Lee into the top pitcher in the AL?
To answer that question we need to look at Lee's stats from previous years. Most people forget that he was a Cy Young candidate in 2005.
2004: 14-8 5.43 ERA 1.50 WHIP 8.1 K/9 2.0 K/BB 33.4 GB%
2005: 18-5 3.79 ERA 1.22 WHIP 6.4 K/9 2.8 K/BB 35.6 GB%
2006: 14-11 4.40 ERA 1.41 WHIP 5.8 K/9 2.2 K/BB 32.7 GB%
2007: 5-8 6.29 ERA 1.52 WHIP 6.1 K/9 1.8 K/BB 35.3 GB%
2008: 23-3 2.54 ERA 1.11 WHIP 6.9 K/9 5.0 K/BB 45.9 GB%
The first number that jumps out is Lee's sparkling 5.0 K/BB rate which is a dramatic improvement from his previous seasons. Since his K/9 rate stayed roughly the same as it had throughout his career, the increased K/BB rate means that Lee is giving up significantly fewer free passes.
Lee also managed to generate about 10% more groundballs than last year. Pitchers with groundball rates (GB%) of around 45-50% or higher usually fare better than pitchers who are significantly under 40% as groundballs are more likely to be turned into outs than flyballs or line drives. Up until 2008, Lee had always been an extreme fly ball pitcher, the 10% increase shows that his pitches have more vertical movement on them--another trait associated with success.
If Cliff Lee can keep up his fantastic K/BB and groundball rates, he should continue to find success, though maybe not to the extent that he did last year. Lee will be 31 years old this coming season, and while he seems to have already adapted to the physical decline, history is not kind to pitchers over 30 years old. If he can keep his peripheral stats up, about 15 wins with an ERA around 3.50 and a sub-1.30 WHIP is not out of the question. Lee will not repeat his dynamic 2008 season next year, but he still has the ability to be a top-20 starting pitcher in the future.
Sources
FanGraphs.com
Baseball-Reference.com
To answer that question we need to look at Lee's stats from previous years. Most people forget that he was a Cy Young candidate in 2005.
2004: 14-8 5.43 ERA 1.50 WHIP 8.1 K/9 2.0 K/BB 33.4 GB%
2005: 18-5 3.79 ERA 1.22 WHIP 6.4 K/9 2.8 K/BB 35.6 GB%
2006: 14-11 4.40 ERA 1.41 WHIP 5.8 K/9 2.2 K/BB 32.7 GB%
2007: 5-8 6.29 ERA 1.52 WHIP 6.1 K/9 1.8 K/BB 35.3 GB%
2008: 23-3 2.54 ERA 1.11 WHIP 6.9 K/9 5.0 K/BB 45.9 GB%
The first number that jumps out is Lee's sparkling 5.0 K/BB rate which is a dramatic improvement from his previous seasons. Since his K/9 rate stayed roughly the same as it had throughout his career, the increased K/BB rate means that Lee is giving up significantly fewer free passes.
Lee also managed to generate about 10% more groundballs than last year. Pitchers with groundball rates (GB%) of around 45-50% or higher usually fare better than pitchers who are significantly under 40% as groundballs are more likely to be turned into outs than flyballs or line drives. Up until 2008, Lee had always been an extreme fly ball pitcher, the 10% increase shows that his pitches have more vertical movement on them--another trait associated with success.
If Cliff Lee can keep up his fantastic K/BB and groundball rates, he should continue to find success, though maybe not to the extent that he did last year. Lee will be 31 years old this coming season, and while he seems to have already adapted to the physical decline, history is not kind to pitchers over 30 years old. If he can keep his peripheral stats up, about 15 wins with an ERA around 3.50 and a sub-1.30 WHIP is not out of the question. Lee will not repeat his dynamic 2008 season next year, but he still has the ability to be a top-20 starting pitcher in the future.
Sources
FanGraphs.com
Baseball-Reference.com
Monday, January 12, 2009
Steroid Primer
With JC Romero getting busted for using performance enhancing drugs last week, its clear that baseball has not seen the last of its steroid problem. While we all know that steroids can help athletes build muscle and achieve superhuman feats, but how do they actually work?
Almost all of the steroids and human growth hormone (HGH) that ball players use comes in the form of an intramuscular injection, as this is the most potent and effective way. Once the athlete has injected himself, the steroids or HGH, connect with the body's natural steroid receptors. The receptors then send a chemical signal to the athlete's DNA, telling it to produce more testosterone. Testosterone, is a naturally occurring hormone in a male's body and helps aid in muscle growth. With increased testosterone in his body, the athlete is able to increase the productivity of his workouts and gain more muscle.It should be noted that for steroids to have any muscle building effect, the athlete still needs to work out.
Athletes usually use steroids in cycles to help reap the greatest benefits. Steroid cycles can range anywhere from a week to a few months of steroid use followed by a few weeks without steroid use to help combat some of the side-effects that steroids can have on the body. It is also common for athletes to use more than one type of steroid at a time, to help gain the maximum amount of muscle.
HGH was originally used by AIDS patients to help combat some of the side-effects from the final stages of the disease. Baseball players use it because it increases the size and definition of their muscles with little work. HGH can help players stay in shape in a sport like baseball where everyday workouts are not practical due to travel. Though it sounds like a miracle drug, increased HGH exposure can lead to devastating long-term side-effects including: increased risk of cancer, birth defects in children, heart irregularities, and Acromegaly--the extreme growth of appendages and facial features.
I hope that cleared up any confusion about steroids and how they work. As always, questions and comments are welcome and appreciated.
Almost all of the steroids and human growth hormone (HGH) that ball players use comes in the form of an intramuscular injection, as this is the most potent and effective way. Once the athlete has injected himself, the steroids or HGH, connect with the body's natural steroid receptors. The receptors then send a chemical signal to the athlete's DNA, telling it to produce more testosterone. Testosterone, is a naturally occurring hormone in a male's body and helps aid in muscle growth. With increased testosterone in his body, the athlete is able to increase the productivity of his workouts and gain more muscle.It should be noted that for steroids to have any muscle building effect, the athlete still needs to work out.
Athletes usually use steroids in cycles to help reap the greatest benefits. Steroid cycles can range anywhere from a week to a few months of steroid use followed by a few weeks without steroid use to help combat some of the side-effects that steroids can have on the body. It is also common for athletes to use more than one type of steroid at a time, to help gain the maximum amount of muscle.
HGH was originally used by AIDS patients to help combat some of the side-effects from the final stages of the disease. Baseball players use it because it increases the size and definition of their muscles with little work. HGH can help players stay in shape in a sport like baseball where everyday workouts are not practical due to travel. Though it sounds like a miracle drug, increased HGH exposure can lead to devastating long-term side-effects including: increased risk of cancer, birth defects in children, heart irregularities, and Acromegaly--the extreme growth of appendages and facial features.
I hope that cleared up any confusion about steroids and how they work. As always, questions and comments are welcome and appreciated.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
A Flurry of Redsox Moves
Over the last few weeks, the Boston Red Sox have made a plethora of intriguing signings. Lets take a closer look:
Brad Penny - The former Dodgers ace will fight for the #5 rotation spot with Clay Bucholz and Michael Bowden. Boston took advantage of a solid low-risk opportunity--if it pans out, they get a pitcher who could get 15 wins with a 3.50 ERA. If Penny stumbles, the Redsox send him to AAA or the bullpen and Bucholz steps in.
Takashi Saito - Another former Dodger, Saito has been a lights-out closer since he came over from Japan. He was derailed by injuries in 2008 and will be 39 by opening day, but Saito can still be an excellent set-up man when healthy.
Josh Bard - Definitely not the best catcher in the league, but better than Jason Varitek at this point in his career. Bard will provide an affordable stopgap until the Redsox can find a long-term. solution.
Rocco Baldelli - Once a highly touted prospect with the Tampa Bay Rays, Baldelli will never live up to that potential due to his medical condition which causes extreme fatigue. However, Baldelli, who possesses a strong bat and good fielding ability, can still be useful as a pinch-hitter or a defensive replacement.
Junichi Tazawa - The 22 year old would have been the first pick in the Japanese Central League had he not decided to play in America. He should probably start his career in AA or AAA and has the upside of a #3 starter.
The Red Sox didn't get Mark Texietria or CC Sabathia like the Yankees, but they did sign productive, high upside role-players to complement their stars. Boston now has exceptional depth which should bode them well during the long season.
Brad Penny - The former Dodgers ace will fight for the #5 rotation spot with Clay Bucholz and Michael Bowden. Boston took advantage of a solid low-risk opportunity--if it pans out, they get a pitcher who could get 15 wins with a 3.50 ERA. If Penny stumbles, the Redsox send him to AAA or the bullpen and Bucholz steps in.
Takashi Saito - Another former Dodger, Saito has been a lights-out closer since he came over from Japan. He was derailed by injuries in 2008 and will be 39 by opening day, but Saito can still be an excellent set-up man when healthy.
Josh Bard - Definitely not the best catcher in the league, but better than Jason Varitek at this point in his career. Bard will provide an affordable stopgap until the Redsox can find a long-term. solution.
Rocco Baldelli - Once a highly touted prospect with the Tampa Bay Rays, Baldelli will never live up to that potential due to his medical condition which causes extreme fatigue. However, Baldelli, who possesses a strong bat and good fielding ability, can still be useful as a pinch-hitter or a defensive replacement.
Junichi Tazawa - The 22 year old would have been the first pick in the Japanese Central League had he not decided to play in America. He should probably start his career in AA or AAA and has the upside of a #3 starter.
The Red Sox didn't get Mark Texietria or CC Sabathia like the Yankees, but they did sign productive, high upside role-players to complement their stars. Boston now has exceptional depth which should bode them well during the long season.
Top 100 Prospects: 89-80
#89 Hank Conger, C, LAA - Conger had a breakout 2008 season hitting .303 with 13 homeruns and 75 RBI in 294 at-bats. The 20 year old may not have enough defense to stay at catcher and may be forced to move to DH, which will severely hinder his value. Also of concern, Conger only drew 14 walks compared to 55 strikeouts. If he can improve his plate discipline and stay at catcher, Conger should provide very good offensive value.
#88 Hector Rondon, P, CLE - The 20 year old had a strong season at A+ going 11-6 with a 3.60 ERA. In addition, Rondon showed dominance, striking out exactly 9 batters per nine innings, and control 3.1 K/BB rate. He should be entrenched in Cleveland's rotation sometime in 2011.
#87 Michael Bowden, P, BOS - After making his debut with Boston last September, Bowden should have a chance to fight for a full-time role in spring training. He split most of last year between AA and AAA and finished with 8.1 K/9, and a whopping 5.1 K/BB which illustrates his superior control. He should be seeing regular action as soon opening day, however mid-season is more likely.
#86 Aaron Hicks, CF, MIN - It's risky to make assumptions on rookie league performances, but Hicks' .314/.405/.491 line shows a lot of promise. The switch-hitter has the skills to be a dynamic leadoff hitter as well as play a gold glove centerfield. His first shot at full season ball should be intriguing, look for him in a Twins uniform in late 2012.
#85 Greg Golson, OF, TEX - Traded from Philadelphia over the off-season, Golson possesses an enticing combination of power and speed. During the 2008 season he spent most of the year at AA, hitting 13 homeruns and 60 RBI with a .282 batting average. Golson's problem is plate discipline, last year he struck out 130 times with only 32 walks. If he can get on base more, Golson could have star potential, he should reach the majors by 2010, if not sooner.
#84 Hector Gomez, SS, COL - Gomez was injured all of last year with various knee and leg injuries, when he's healthy the Dominican Republic product can flash the ability to hit for power and average. Expect him to unleash his offensive potential in A+next year and arrive in the majors by late 2011.
#83 Beau Mills, 1B, CLE - The 22 year old broke out last year in A+, hitting 21 homeruns and 90 RBI with a .291 average in 482 at-bats. Mills was very old for his level, this bears watching next year in AA, to see if he sinks or swims facing tougher competition. He should be in Cleveland by 2010.
#82 Kyle Skipworth, C, FLA - The 6th overall pick in last year's draft, Skipworth only got 151 at-bats--and didn't do much with them, hitting .192/.250/.331. Skipworth has above-average defense, as well as a bat that projects for above-average power and contact. Don't let the small sample size fool you, Skipworth can hit. He shouldn't reach the majors until 2013 at the earliest.
#81 Dominic Brown, OF, PHI - Brown had a solid 2008 season at A-, hitting .291 with 9 homeruns and 51 RBI in 444 at-bats. Brown complemented his power and contact skills with 22 stolen bases and 64 walks compared to 72 strikeouts. He should continue to grow as he moves through the minors, look for him in Philadelphia by 2012.
#80 Matt Antonelli, 2B, SD - Antonelli had one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory, compiling a line of .216/.335/.322 in 450 at-bats. If there was any bright spot in his abysmal '08 season, it was his plate discipline; he drew 76 walks and struck out 86 times. After only getting 187 at-bats at AA in 2007, Antonelli was promoted to AAA at the beginning of 2008. His awful season may have just been the result of being rushed. Look for a rebound in '09 and a call-up by mid-season.
That concludes #89-80, tune in next week, January 17th, for #79-70.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
#88 Hector Rondon, P, CLE - The 20 year old had a strong season at A+ going 11-6 with a 3.60 ERA. In addition, Rondon showed dominance, striking out exactly 9 batters per nine innings, and control 3.1 K/BB rate. He should be entrenched in Cleveland's rotation sometime in 2011.
#87 Michael Bowden, P, BOS - After making his debut with Boston last September, Bowden should have a chance to fight for a full-time role in spring training. He split most of last year between AA and AAA and finished with 8.1 K/9, and a whopping 5.1 K/BB which illustrates his superior control. He should be seeing regular action as soon opening day, however mid-season is more likely.
#86 Aaron Hicks, CF, MIN - It's risky to make assumptions on rookie league performances, but Hicks' .314/.405/.491 line shows a lot of promise. The switch-hitter has the skills to be a dynamic leadoff hitter as well as play a gold glove centerfield. His first shot at full season ball should be intriguing, look for him in a Twins uniform in late 2012.
#85 Greg Golson, OF, TEX - Traded from Philadelphia over the off-season, Golson possesses an enticing combination of power and speed. During the 2008 season he spent most of the year at AA, hitting 13 homeruns and 60 RBI with a .282 batting average. Golson's problem is plate discipline, last year he struck out 130 times with only 32 walks. If he can get on base more, Golson could have star potential, he should reach the majors by 2010, if not sooner.
#84 Hector Gomez, SS, COL - Gomez was injured all of last year with various knee and leg injuries, when he's healthy the Dominican Republic product can flash the ability to hit for power and average. Expect him to unleash his offensive potential in A+next year and arrive in the majors by late 2011.
#83 Beau Mills, 1B, CLE - The 22 year old broke out last year in A+, hitting 21 homeruns and 90 RBI with a .291 average in 482 at-bats. Mills was very old for his level, this bears watching next year in AA, to see if he sinks or swims facing tougher competition. He should be in Cleveland by 2010.
#82 Kyle Skipworth, C, FLA - The 6th overall pick in last year's draft, Skipworth only got 151 at-bats--and didn't do much with them, hitting .192/.250/.331. Skipworth has above-average defense, as well as a bat that projects for above-average power and contact. Don't let the small sample size fool you, Skipworth can hit. He shouldn't reach the majors until 2013 at the earliest.
#81 Dominic Brown, OF, PHI - Brown had a solid 2008 season at A-, hitting .291 with 9 homeruns and 51 RBI in 444 at-bats. Brown complemented his power and contact skills with 22 stolen bases and 64 walks compared to 72 strikeouts. He should continue to grow as he moves through the minors, look for him in Philadelphia by 2012.
#80 Matt Antonelli, 2B, SD - Antonelli had one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory, compiling a line of .216/.335/.322 in 450 at-bats. If there was any bright spot in his abysmal '08 season, it was his plate discipline; he drew 76 walks and struck out 86 times. After only getting 187 at-bats at AA in 2007, Antonelli was promoted to AAA at the beginning of 2008. His awful season may have just been the result of being rushed. Look for a rebound in '09 and a call-up by mid-season.
That concludes #89-80, tune in next week, January 17th, for #79-70.
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
Thursday, January 8, 2009
A Pair of Marlins Sluggers
Last season, two Marins hitting prospects, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison, tore up their respective leagues as the duo combined to hit a whopping 52 homeruns. These two power hitters, along with Cameron Maybin and Chris Volstad provide a bright future for the Marlins who have struggled as of late.
Stanton was picked in the 2nd round or the 2007 draft. He possesses serious power which he showed off by hitting 39 homeruns at A- as a 19 year old. While he hit .293, Stanton struck out 153 times in 468 at-bats and will need to cut that number down as he ascends through the minors. The outfielder plays below average defense, however that shouldn't hinder him from reaching the majors. If he can improve his plate discipline, Stanton should be able to move quickly through the minors and become star in Florida's outfield for years to come.
Though he doesn't have the same kind of power as Stanton, Logan Morrison should be a star in his own right. Morrison hit .332 at A+ last year while striking out 80 times and walking 57 times in 488 at-bats last year in the offense-depressed Florida State League. The first baseman showed decent pop, hitting 13 homeruns and posting a .494 slugging percentage. Florida's first base position is wide open with the departure of Mike Jacobs. Morrison, who should start the season in AA has a chance to be a September callup in 2009 and a starter in 2010.
With a large crop of prospects ready to jump into the majors over the next 2 years, the Marlins should be contenders again. Look for them to make a playoff push in 2010.
Stanton was picked in the 2nd round or the 2007 draft. He possesses serious power which he showed off by hitting 39 homeruns at A- as a 19 year old. While he hit .293, Stanton struck out 153 times in 468 at-bats and will need to cut that number down as he ascends through the minors. The outfielder plays below average defense, however that shouldn't hinder him from reaching the majors. If he can improve his plate discipline, Stanton should be able to move quickly through the minors and become star in Florida's outfield for years to come.
Though he doesn't have the same kind of power as Stanton, Logan Morrison should be a star in his own right. Morrison hit .332 at A+ last year while striking out 80 times and walking 57 times in 488 at-bats last year in the offense-depressed Florida State League. The first baseman showed decent pop, hitting 13 homeruns and posting a .494 slugging percentage. Florida's first base position is wide open with the departure of Mike Jacobs. Morrison, who should start the season in AA has a chance to be a September callup in 2009 and a starter in 2010.
With a large crop of prospects ready to jump into the majors over the next 2 years, the Marlins should be contenders again. Look for them to make a playoff push in 2010.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
2009 Breakout - JA Happ
JA Happ was called up by the Philadelphia Phillies towards the end of last year. He started a four games last year (one in '07), but mostly he was used out of the bullpen. He ended up going 1 - 0 with a 3.69 ERA in 31.2 innings pitched. In the minor leagues, Happ was a strikeout pitcher and when he gets more innings in the majors more strikeouts should come for him. He has never been a pitcher that was very flashy and would win a lot of games or have the best ERA, but he has the tools to be very important for a full season in the majors and he will be able to keep the Phillies in each game.
Happ has worked his way up through the Phillies minor league organization and should be a key part of the pitching staff of the Phillies in 2009. Happ will either get the #5 spot in the rotation or will be playing an important part out of the bullpen, especially because of the most recent suspension of JC Romero for 50 games. Happ's innings pitched will go way up in 2009, so he will be able to get acclimated with the MLB and show how good and valuable he really is.
Happ has worked his way up through the Phillies minor league organization and should be a key part of the pitching staff of the Phillies in 2009. Happ will either get the #5 spot in the rotation or will be playing an important part out of the bullpen, especially because of the most recent suspension of JC Romero for 50 games. Happ's innings pitched will go way up in 2009, so he will be able to get acclimated with the MLB and show how good and valuable he really is.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Projection Methodology
As you can see below, we recently released our projections for batters. I would like to explain how we got these numbers. Clyde dropped the crystal ball we were planning on using, so these alternate processes will have to do.
We start with each player's career statistics. From there we calculate their 162 game average for all of the stat categories. Next, we multiply these numbers by a factor based on the individual player's age. Finally for rookies, we use something called an MLE to predict their stats for the upcoming season:
An MLE or Major League Equivalency helps us translate a player's minor league performance to a major league scale. The first MLE was developed by Bill James. In James' Baseball Abstract, where he released the MLE formulas, he said that MLEs for players in AA and AAA have the same predictive value as major league stats while the accuracy drops off for A+, A-, and rookie league (it is important to note that these can still be calculated, they are just less accurate due to the wide gap in level of play between the MLB and A ball). We only use AA and AAA MLEs in our projections.
Once the MLEs are calculated, they are added to the player's career stats and the same process is performed. I hope this gives everyone an insight on how we calculated our projections for batters. Feel free to Email or comment with any questions.
We start with each player's career statistics. From there we calculate their 162 game average for all of the stat categories. Next, we multiply these numbers by a factor based on the individual player's age. Finally for rookies, we use something called an MLE to predict their stats for the upcoming season:
An MLE or Major League Equivalency helps us translate a player's minor league performance to a major league scale. The first MLE was developed by Bill James. In James' Baseball Abstract, where he released the MLE formulas, he said that MLEs for players in AA and AAA have the same predictive value as major league stats while the accuracy drops off for A+, A-, and rookie league (it is important to note that these can still be calculated, they are just less accurate due to the wide gap in level of play between the MLB and A ball). We only use AA and AAA MLEs in our projections.
Once the MLEs are calculated, they are added to the player's career stats and the same process is performed. I hope this gives everyone an insight on how we calculated our projections for batters. Feel free to Email or comment with any questions.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Projections are Here!
Our hitting projections are finished, email baseballstalker@gmail.com and we'll send you our projections spreadsheet (PDF also available).
Pitcher projections will be out in a few weeks.
Pitcher projections will be out in a few weeks.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Top 100 Prospects: 100-90
Over the next few months, will begin releasing our top 100 prospect list over the next 10 Saturdays. Today we will start with 100-90 and work backwards, without further ado...
#100 Chris Nelson, SS, COL - After having a breakout season in A+, Nelson struggled with AA throughout his injury riddled 2008 season. At the Arizona Fall League this October, a healthy Nelson showed the ability to hit for power and average, compiling a line 6/17/.321 in 84 at-bats. Look for him to reach the majors by 2011.
#99 Hak Ju Lee, SS, CHC - The 17 year old Lee has not played an inning of baseball in America yet however, he projects to rate at an 80 in speed (on the 20-80 scouting scale). It's unknown how well he will stack up against players in America, but he should hit for a solid average when he reaches the majors (probably not before 2013).
#98 Kyle Drabek, P, PHI - He could be ranked in the top 10 if not for his injuries and questionable character. Drabek, the son of former major league pitcher, Doug Drabek, possesses a mid-90's fastball and a hard-breaking curveball which sits in the low 80's. He had Tommy John Surgery last year and won't be ready until June.
#97 Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL - Reimold has hit for power at every minor league stop, he has also been old for his level most of the time(24 years old in AA). If he can break into the majors sometime in 2009, Reimold should be able to hit for power right away, the rest of his game lags behind.
#96 Cory Scarpetta, P, MIN - Scarpetta is still young and somewhat raw, however he shows potential to generate a lot of groundballs and strike batters out. Keep an eye on the 19 year-old this season in A-.
#95 Jeremy Hellickson, P, TB - The 21 year-old had a good season in AA, his biggest problem is the lack of big league rotation spots. Unless there is an injury in Tampa's rotation in '09, he might have to break into the majors as a reliever.
#94 Bryan Anderson, C, STL - The heir-apparent to Yadier Molina had another solid season in AAA. When he reaches the majors Anderson should hit for high average and minimal power with average to below-average defense.
#93 Ross Detwiler, P, WAS - Detwiler got a taste of the majors in '07, even though he spent most of the season in A+. In 2008, the flame-throwing lefty repeated A+ and struggled mightily with control and giving up the long ball. His stuff has never been questioned, if Detwiler can regain the poise he had in '07 he should move through the system quickly.
#92 Michael Almanzar, 3B, BOS - Almanzar reached A- at 17 years old last year, but he probably won't reach the majors until 2013. As a big leaguer, Almanzar should hit for both power and average.
#91 Jason Donald, SS, PHI - Donald could start in the majors at 2B in '09 if Chase Utley has setbacks with hip surgery. At The Arizona Fall League, the Phillies moved Donald around, trying him at both 2B and 3B. Realistically Donald's best chance to break into the majors with a full-time gig would be at 3B, where only Pedro Feliz stands in his way.
#90 Danny Duffy, P, KAN - The 19 year old lefty has an electric arm and absolutely mowed down batters in A- this year. Duffy struck out over 11 batters per 9 innings and had a 4 K/BB rate last year. Even though he is an extreme fly ball pitcher, his stuff is good enough for him to last in the big leagues. Look for Duffy to be in the majors by 2011.
Tune in next Saturday, January 10th, for #'s 89-80
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America
Thursday, January 1, 2009
The New York Yankees and Their Minor League System
Happy New Year!
The New York Yankees have always been known for spending money to get the big named players. This off-season is no different. They went out and signed C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Texeira, neither of who was cheap by any means. Even though the Yankees spend and spend and spend, lately they have been using their minor league system more extensively than in previous years.
The turnaround of the Yankees' notoriously bad farm system started in 2005 when Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, and Chien-Ming Wang started to play everyday for the Yankees. All three of them were signed internationally and worked their way up through the Yankees minor league system. Cabrera and Cano have been regulars since 2005, and Wang has developed into a solid innings-eater.
2007 was their next year of really showing off the talent that they had in the minors, when they introduced the baseball world to Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Edwar Ramirez. Joba was tremendous in his 24 innings pitched out of the bullpen, when he struck out 34, walked only 6, and had an ERA of 0.38. Hughes, Kennedy, and Ramirez pitched well in the few games that they started for the Yankees late in ’07. All four pitchers have extreme talent and if they can overcome injuries that have plagued them early in their pro careers, then watch out!
In 2008, more players were called up from the minors, though not as well known as Joba, Hughes, Wang, etc, they are key role players for the Yankees. They include: Justin Christian, Brett Gardner, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, Chase Wright, and Juan Miranda. These players may never turn into superstars, however they will develop into solid role players--something the Yankee teams of this decade have been short of . These players are the ones that lead the Yankees' AA team (Trenton Thunder) to two straight Eastern League Championships (’07 and ’08). They are talented and can perfectly complement the free agent talent that their parent club has acquired.
The Yankees have a couple big named prospects in the minor leagues right now in Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero. Austin Jackson could be up at some point next year, but if not he should definitely be seeing regular playing time in 2010. He possesses incredible speed which will help him patrol center field and hit at the top of the lineup. Jesus Montero is an absolute monster. He has extreme power and is just a stud hitter. He is a catcher right now, but his defense is not very good, so a move to 1B or DH is more likely. Montero is 19 years old, so he is probably a couple years away from the majors, but when he does get the call up he is going to be a great hitter for the Yankees.
The Yankees are still spending the big bucks on big named free agents, but now they are using international signings and the draft to build a more complete team. We also cannot forget that the Yankees drafted both Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada and its definitely safe to say they turned out pretty good. The 2009 Yankees will need their minor league system players just as much as their big free agent signings, if they are going to be successful and fight for another World Series Championship.
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