Last week, Milwaukee called up their best hitting prospect, Mat Gamel. The 23 year old 3rd baseman asserted himself as one of the best bats in the minor leagues in 2008 posting a line of .329/.396/.538 with 19 homeruns and 97 RBI in 507 at-bats in AA. He has certainly proved he can hit at the minor league level, but how well will his game translate to the majors?
To start, lets revisit his minor league numbers:
2007 - 9 HR 60 RBI .300/.376/.472 .365 BABIP .59 BB/K 466 AB
2008 - 19 HR 97 RBI .329/.396/.538 .392 BABIP .50 BB/K 507 AB
2009 - 8 HR 31 RBI .336/.428/.647 .416 BABIP .62 BB/K 119 AB
*BABIP - Batting Average On Balls In Play (FirstInning.com)
There is no doubt that Gamel dominated the minors over the last three years but the most concerning number is his ridiculously high BABIP. The major league average falls around .300 but some players have higher career BABIPs than others depending on their approach. For example, Ichiro has a .356 career BABIP thanks to his superior contact skills.
Gamel is certainly an excellent hitter, but he is definitly no Ichiro, therefore his BABIPs around .400 will certainly fall at the major league level and that means he could see a serious drop in his batting average.
In order to get on base at his near .400 minor league clip, Gamel will have to change his approach at the plate and walk more. He has never had any serious plate discipline issues as his .50 minor league BB/K rate is right on the edge of what we like to see, but it's certainly not great.
As for his defense, Gamel may be the worst fielding 3rd baseman in the majors right now, he has improved a little since his 53 error 2007 season but a position change in the near future is almost gaurenteed. With Bill Hall on a bit of a hot streak, and playing adequate defense at the hot-corner, Gamel might have trouble getting playing time right away.
On the bright side Gamel is only 23 and his power should carry over from the minors enough that he could hit around 25 homeruns annually in the major leagues. However, he will need to reform his approach and be less agressive against major league pitchers. If he can take more pitches and get on base at a higher clip, I have no doubt Gamel will be an all-star. The problem is his adjustment is a difficult one to make, and until he does we won't see a sparkling .300 average or 25 homeruns from him anytime soon.
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