In case you haven't noticed, Carl Crawford has gone absolutely crazy on the base paths. Through 47 games, Crawford has a whopping 30 stolen bases. It might be even more remarkable that he hasn't been caught stealing at all. That's right, he's a perfect 30 for 30 on steal attempts so far. The 27 year old is on pace for 101 stolen bases, but is that truly realistic?
2009: .316/.379/.420/1 HR/22 RBI/30 SB/.385 BABIP/0.50 BB/K
Crawford's .385 BABIP will be almost impossible to maintain, it should regress to somewhere around his .333 career BABIP as the season progresses. His batted ball statistics are in line with his career numbers, so it looks like he's simply getting lucky. If his luck turns, Crawford will be on base less which will naturally lead to less steal opportunities.
It's hard to tell when his luck will run out, but there are some peripheral stats that bode well for him. In 2007, Crawford maintained a .375 BABIP for the entire year; if he did it before, why can't he do it again?
Crawford's walk rate is currently the highest of his career at 8.5% which is a significant increase from his 5.1% career rate. His .50 K/BB rate has also increased considerably from his .37 career rate. The overall increase in walks means Crawford is becoming more selective at the plate and not swinging at pitches out of the zone which are harder to turn into hits.
At 27, Carl Crawford is in the prime of his career, he is walking more, and has shown the ability to hold high BABIPs for long periods of time in the past. While I have no doubt his BABIP will regress at least to his .375 2007 mark (and most likely even more), his improved plate discipline should help give him a legitimate shot to steal 100 bases.
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