Before 2008, Jeff Francoeur was touted as a rising star, showing he could hit for both power and average with solid defense. Last year, however, Francoeur put up the worst numbers in his professional career, at 24, an age when hitters are supposed to be breaking out, not severely regressing. Below are Francoeur's numbers for the last 3 seasons:
2006: 29/103/.260 .17 K/BB .286 BABIP
2007: 19/105/.293 .33 K/BB .342 BABIP
2008: 11/70/.239 .35 K/BB .277 BABIP
There are a few positive trends in Francoeur's 2008 numbers. His K/BB rate has risen each year which shows that his plate discipline, while still below-average, is improving. His K% has improved from 20.3% in 2006 to 18.5% in 2008--these gains are not monumental, but they do reflect his steady improvement.
Unfortunately, it looks like his 2007 batting average was a bit of a fluke, however, his '06 and '08 batting averages were also probably a little low. In the future Francoeur's BABIP numbers should fall somewhere between his extremely high '07 season and somewhat low '06 and '08 seasons--look for his BABIP to stabilize around .306, his career average; this means his future batting averages should fall around the .270-.280 range.
It appears that Jeff Francoeur's poor 2008 season was mostly a product of bad luck. He shows steadily improving plate discipline trends and couples them with tremendous power, which should which should bode him well in the future. Look for Francoeur to rebound in 2009.
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