Before 2008, Jeff Francoeur was touted as a rising star, showing he could hit for both power and average with solid defense. Last year, however, Francoeur put up the worst numbers in his professional career, at 24, an age when hitters are supposed to be breaking out, not severely regressing. Below are Francoeur's numbers for the last 3 seasons:
2006: 29/103/.260 .17 K/BB .286 BABIP
2007: 19/105/.293 .33 K/BB .342 BABIP
2008: 11/70/.239 .35 K/BB .277 BABIP
There are a few positive trends in Francoeur's 2008 numbers. His K/BB rate has risen each year which shows that his plate discipline, while still below-average, is improving. His K% has improved from 20.3% in 2006 to 18.5% in 2008--these gains are not monumental, but they do reflect his steady improvement.
Unfortunately, it looks like his 2007 batting average was a bit of a fluke, however, his '06 and '08 batting averages were also probably a little low. In the future Francoeur's BABIP numbers should fall somewhere between his extremely high '07 season and somewhat low '06 and '08 seasons--look for his BABIP to stabilize around .306, his career average; this means his future batting averages should fall around the .270-.280 range.
It appears that Jeff Francoeur's poor 2008 season was mostly a product of bad luck. He shows steadily improving plate discipline trends and couples them with tremendous power, which should which should bode him well in the future. Look for Francoeur to rebound in 2009.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Return of the World Champion's Starting Rotation
This off-season the San Fransisco Giants were not the only team signing a 40+ year old pitcher. The Philadelphia Phillies re-signed Jamie Moyer (46), which means that the rotation that took the Phillies to the World Series will be back in 2009. Here's how it looks:
#1 Starter - Cole Hamels: 14-10 3.09 ERA 7.76 K/9 3.70 K/BB
#2 Starter - Brett Myers: 10-13 4.55 ERA 7.72 K/9 2.51 K/BB
#3 Starter - Jamie Moyer: 16-7 3.71 ERA 5.64 K/9 1.98 K/BB
#4 Starter - Joe Blanton: 9-12 4.69 ERA 5.05 K/9 1.68 K/BB
#5 Starter - Kyle Kendrick: 11-9 5.49 ERA 3.93 K/9 1.19 K/BB
Cole Hamels is one of the top pitchers in the NL and in all of baseball. His record did not do Cole Hamels any justice last year, due to the lack of run support he received. He showed in the playoffs how dominant he can be and I believe that his recent performance in the playoffs will translate into his best regular season in 2009.
Brett Myers was awful at the beginning of the 2008 season. He was giving up homeruns left and right and was not pitching as well as he has in the past. He was sent down to the minors and after spending some time at the A, AA, and AAA levels he returned to the Phillies and pitched a lot better. If he can pitch the way he did at the end 2008 in 2009, then he should have a solid year and have much better numbers than he did in 2008. The Phillies need him to be successful.
Jamie Moyer continues to surprise and impress everyone. He is 46 years old and he had one of his best years statistically last year and he won 16 games. He was re-signed in the off-season for 2 more years, which means he will be pitching in 4 different decades. The Phillies are not going to ask much of him, just keep doing what he has been doing, which is be a leader in the clubhouse, an example on the field, and be a pitching genius that he has always been.
Joe Blanton was traded to Philadelphia from Oakland in the middle of last season. Blanton pitched well and did not lose a game in a Phillies uniform. In 2007 Blanton pitched extremely well and if he can return to that form than that would be great for the Phillies rotation. He is a good pitcher and he will eat up innings and keep the Phillies in the games that he pitches.
Kyle Kendrick won 11 games, but really did not pitch too well and by the end of the year was not in the rotation. I believe that his spot in the rotation is up for grabs and that J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco can jump into that 5th spot if either have a good spring training.
The Phillies rotation that won them a World Series has the potential to be better in 2009 than they were in 2008. Joe Blanton will have more opportunity to pitch with the Phillies and he showed in the World Series that he is a good pitcher, the #5 starter spot might improve with the addition of J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco, and if Cole Hamels gets run support he could close to a 20 game winner. If that starting rotation can give turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball, which consists of J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, and Brad Lidge, then the Phillies will definitely be in the hunt to defend their title.
#1 Starter - Cole Hamels: 14-10 3.09 ERA 7.76 K/9 3.70 K/BB
#2 Starter - Brett Myers: 10-13 4.55 ERA 7.72 K/9 2.51 K/BB
#3 Starter - Jamie Moyer: 16-7 3.71 ERA 5.64 K/9 1.98 K/BB
#4 Starter - Joe Blanton: 9-12 4.69 ERA 5.05 K/9 1.68 K/BB
#5 Starter - Kyle Kendrick: 11-9 5.49 ERA 3.93 K/9 1.19 K/BB
Cole Hamels is one of the top pitchers in the NL and in all of baseball. His record did not do Cole Hamels any justice last year, due to the lack of run support he received. He showed in the playoffs how dominant he can be and I believe that his recent performance in the playoffs will translate into his best regular season in 2009.
Brett Myers was awful at the beginning of the 2008 season. He was giving up homeruns left and right and was not pitching as well as he has in the past. He was sent down to the minors and after spending some time at the A, AA, and AAA levels he returned to the Phillies and pitched a lot better. If he can pitch the way he did at the end 2008 in 2009, then he should have a solid year and have much better numbers than he did in 2008. The Phillies need him to be successful.
Jamie Moyer continues to surprise and impress everyone. He is 46 years old and he had one of his best years statistically last year and he won 16 games. He was re-signed in the off-season for 2 more years, which means he will be pitching in 4 different decades. The Phillies are not going to ask much of him, just keep doing what he has been doing, which is be a leader in the clubhouse, an example on the field, and be a pitching genius that he has always been.
Joe Blanton was traded to Philadelphia from Oakland in the middle of last season. Blanton pitched well and did not lose a game in a Phillies uniform. In 2007 Blanton pitched extremely well and if he can return to that form than that would be great for the Phillies rotation. He is a good pitcher and he will eat up innings and keep the Phillies in the games that he pitches.
Kyle Kendrick won 11 games, but really did not pitch too well and by the end of the year was not in the rotation. I believe that his spot in the rotation is up for grabs and that J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco can jump into that 5th spot if either have a good spring training.
The Phillies rotation that won them a World Series has the potential to be better in 2009 than they were in 2008. Joe Blanton will have more opportunity to pitch with the Phillies and he showed in the World Series that he is a good pitcher, the #5 starter spot might improve with the addition of J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco, and if Cole Hamels gets run support he could close to a 20 game winner. If that starting rotation can give turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball, which consists of J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, and Brad Lidge, then the Phillies will definitely be in the hunt to defend their title.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Randy Johnson's Impact on the Giants Staff
Over the weekend Randy Johnson signed a 1 year deal with the San Francisco Giants. It now seems that Brian Seaban has put together a pretty good rotation anchored by home grown talent.
#1 Starter - Tim Lincecum: 18-5 2.62 ERA 10.5 K/9 3.2 K/BB
#2 Starter - Matt Cain: 8-14 3.76 ERA 7.7 K/9 3.8 K/BB
#3 Starter - Randy Johnson: 11-10 3.91 ERA 8.5 K/9 3.9 K/BB
#4 Starter - Jonathan Sanchez: 9-12 5.01 ERA 8.9 K/9 2.1 K/BB
#5 Starter - Noah Lowry - DNP(Injured)
Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in the NL, maybe in all of baseball. Despite being just 24, Lincecum has already won a Cy Young award and should be expected to have another successful year.
Over the past two years Matt Cain has gotten virtually no run support at all, bringing down his win totals. Make no mistake about it, Matt Cain is a stud. He should get better run support this year which hopefully will lead to more wins.
Though he is 45 years old, Randy Johnson is still an above average NL pitcher who will strike out almost a batter per inning and keep a low ERA. No longer an ace, but still very good.
Sanchez should improve on his rookie season. like Johnson he strikes out almost a batter per inning, however he struggles with his control. If he can keep his walks down, Jonathan Sanchez should be at least average this year.
Noah Lowry was injured all of last year, he is expected to be ready by opening day. His skills have started to decline, but with a healthy elbow he could have a resurgence. He and Johnson will provide excellent stopgaps until the Giants two stud pitching prospects, Tim Alderson and Madison Bumgarner, are ready.
As you can see Randy Johnson helps sure up the Giants rotation, hopefully pushing Barry Zito to middle relief (or better yet the minor leagues). At this point in his career, Johnson is no longer capable of being an ace, however he can be still be an above average innings eater for San Francisco this year and provide veteran leadership for an otherwise young rotation. Add in Jeremy Affeldt to help sure up the bullpen and you have one of the better pitching staffs in the National League. Now if they only had offense...
#1 Starter - Tim Lincecum: 18-5 2.62 ERA 10.5 K/9 3.2 K/BB
#2 Starter - Matt Cain: 8-14 3.76 ERA 7.7 K/9 3.8 K/BB
#3 Starter - Randy Johnson: 11-10 3.91 ERA 8.5 K/9 3.9 K/BB
#4 Starter - Jonathan Sanchez: 9-12 5.01 ERA 8.9 K/9 2.1 K/BB
#5 Starter - Noah Lowry - DNP(Injured)
Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in the NL, maybe in all of baseball. Despite being just 24, Lincecum has already won a Cy Young award and should be expected to have another successful year.
Over the past two years Matt Cain has gotten virtually no run support at all, bringing down his win totals. Make no mistake about it, Matt Cain is a stud. He should get better run support this year which hopefully will lead to more wins.
Though he is 45 years old, Randy Johnson is still an above average NL pitcher who will strike out almost a batter per inning and keep a low ERA. No longer an ace, but still very good.
Sanchez should improve on his rookie season. like Johnson he strikes out almost a batter per inning, however he struggles with his control. If he can keep his walks down, Jonathan Sanchez should be at least average this year.
Noah Lowry was injured all of last year, he is expected to be ready by opening day. His skills have started to decline, but with a healthy elbow he could have a resurgence. He and Johnson will provide excellent stopgaps until the Giants two stud pitching prospects, Tim Alderson and Madison Bumgarner, are ready.
As you can see Randy Johnson helps sure up the Giants rotation, hopefully pushing Barry Zito to middle relief (or better yet the minor leagues). At this point in his career, Johnson is no longer capable of being an ace, however he can be still be an above average innings eater for San Francisco this year and provide veteran leadership for an otherwise young rotation. Add in Jeremy Affeldt to help sure up the bullpen and you have one of the better pitching staffs in the National League. Now if they only had offense...
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Best Leadoff Hitter in Baseball
After seeing the recent signing by the Cincinnati Reds of new starting center fielder and leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras, it got me thinking about the best leadoff hitters in baseball. What makes a good leadoff hitter? A player who makes a pitcher work, gets on base any way that he can, jump starts the offense, and scores runs.
In my opinion the best leadoff hitter in baseball is Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners. He does everything you could ask for in a leadoff hitter. He consistently hits over .300, he consistently gets 200 hits a season, he consistently scores over 100 runs a season, he steals bases, and he does not strike out a whole lot. He does it all and is very good. Other notable lead off men, such as Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Grady Sizemore (just to name a few), are extremely talented and great leadoff hitters, but they lack the consistency and the ability to do everything like Ichiro can.
It is a shame that this great athlete came over to America later in his career, but what he has done in that leadoff spot since coming to Seattle has been amazing. Expect Ichiro to perform at the same level in 2009 that he has been throughout his career.
In my opinion the best leadoff hitter in baseball is Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners. He does everything you could ask for in a leadoff hitter. He consistently hits over .300, he consistently gets 200 hits a season, he consistently scores over 100 runs a season, he steals bases, and he does not strike out a whole lot. He does it all and is very good. Other notable lead off men, such as Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Grady Sizemore (just to name a few), are extremely talented and great leadoff hitters, but they lack the consistency and the ability to do everything like Ichiro can.
It is a shame that this great athlete came over to America later in his career, but what he has done in that leadoff spot since coming to Seattle has been amazing. Expect Ichiro to perform at the same level in 2009 that he has been throughout his career.
Under the Radar Prospect - Kila Ka’aihue
Age - 24
Position - 1B/DH
Games Played - 124
AB - 391
Runs - 91
Hits - 126
Homeruns - 37
RBIs - 100
Walks - 104
Strikeouts - 67
BA - .315
OBP - .451
SLG - .632
OPS - 1.083
Kila Ka’aihue had a great year in 2008 playing for Kansas City's AA and AAA minor league teams, but he has not gotten the attention that he deserves. In Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook Kila Ka’aihue was not mentioned at all for the Royals. They chose 30 players instead of him and I think they missed a very good player. Maybe it had to do with age, but I believe this guy is definitely a worthy prospect. He walked almost 40 more times than he struck out, which is unreal for a power hitting prospect!
In 2008 Kila Ka’aihue was called up at the end of the year and played 12 games. In those 12 games he hit .286, with 21 ABs, 6 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 homerun, 1 rbi, and 4 runs. Those are solid numbers for a guy who was not given a lot of opportunity to prove himself. I do not know why he was not called up earlier because he proved himself in the minors and the Royals did not have a first basemen or DH that really stood out that would hinder Kila Ka’aihue from moving up.
I do not think that his numbers in the majors will be as good as his numbers in the minors, but I believe that Kila Ka’aihue could be a very solid player at the major league level. Hopefully the Royals give him a chance to prove himself and hopefully Baseball America and other prospect writers will give him the respect that he deserves. Watch out for Kila Ka’aihue as a major sleeper prospect in the 2009 season.
Position - 1B/DH
Games Played - 124
AB - 391
Runs - 91
Hits - 126
Homeruns - 37
RBIs - 100
Walks - 104
Strikeouts - 67
BA - .315
OBP - .451
SLG - .632
OPS - 1.083
Kila Ka’aihue had a great year in 2008 playing for Kansas City's AA and AAA minor league teams, but he has not gotten the attention that he deserves. In Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook Kila Ka’aihue was not mentioned at all for the Royals. They chose 30 players instead of him and I think they missed a very good player. Maybe it had to do with age, but I believe this guy is definitely a worthy prospect. He walked almost 40 more times than he struck out, which is unreal for a power hitting prospect!
In 2008 Kila Ka’aihue was called up at the end of the year and played 12 games. In those 12 games he hit .286, with 21 ABs, 6 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 homerun, 1 rbi, and 4 runs. Those are solid numbers for a guy who was not given a lot of opportunity to prove himself. I do not know why he was not called up earlier because he proved himself in the minors and the Royals did not have a first basemen or DH that really stood out that would hinder Kila Ka’aihue from moving up.
I do not think that his numbers in the majors will be as good as his numbers in the minors, but I believe that Kila Ka’aihue could be a very solid player at the major league level. Hopefully the Royals give him a chance to prove himself and hopefully Baseball America and other prospect writers will give him the respect that he deserves. Watch out for Kila Ka’aihue as a major sleeper prospect in the 2009 season.
Billy Beane's Spending and Oakland's Future
Billy Beane, the General Manager of the Oakland A's, has become synonymous with successful small market spending to field competitive teams. This off-season it appears that Beane has strayed from the norm. Beane has made serious pushes for high priced free agents Rafael Furcal, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi and Garrett Anderson.
Oakland's payroll is currently just over $47 million which ranks 28th in the majors right now. Below are the Oakland's payroll rankings since Beane was appointed GM in 1997:
1997 - 28th
1998 - 28th
1999 - 24th
2000 - 25th
2001 - 29th
2002 - 28th
2003 - 23rd
2004 - 16th
2005 - 22nd
2006 - 21st
2007 - 17th
2008 - 28th
The A's have never been in the top half of the league in terms of payroll so why are they making a push now?
Cisco Field, Oakland's new stadium will be ready in two years which means the the A's revenue will drastically increase, providing Beane with more money to spend on players.
Oakland's farm system currently rates as one of the top three in baseball, which is not new for the A's. However there is large difference in how they have been acquiring players this season. The A's signed Michael Inoa, the top Latin-American prospect on the market, for $4.25 million, the highest signing bonus to any non-Cuban international player in history. Beane also broke away from his trend of selecting college players in the first round of the Amateur Draft when he selected pitcher Trevor Cahill in the 2006 draft. Cahill is expected to make his major league debut sometime this season.
This off-season Beane traded away highly touted rookie Carlos Gonzalez to the Colorado Rockies for all star outfielder Matt Holliday. Holliday will be a free agent next year, which means Oakland will probably try to re-sign him.
All of the pieces are in place for Beane and the A's to go on a huge spending spree over the next two off-seasons. With Beane's talent recognition that helped the A's make the playoffs with inferior payrolls, the A's could be very dangerous with his hands on big market money.
Oakland's payroll is currently just over $47 million which ranks 28th in the majors right now. Below are the Oakland's payroll rankings since Beane was appointed GM in 1997:
1997 - 28th
1998 - 28th
1999 - 24th
2000 - 25th
2001 - 29th
2002 - 28th
2003 - 23rd
2004 - 16th
2005 - 22nd
2006 - 21st
2007 - 17th
2008 - 28th
The A's have never been in the top half of the league in terms of payroll so why are they making a push now?
Cisco Field, Oakland's new stadium will be ready in two years which means the the A's revenue will drastically increase, providing Beane with more money to spend on players.
Oakland's farm system currently rates as one of the top three in baseball, which is not new for the A's. However there is large difference in how they have been acquiring players this season. The A's signed Michael Inoa, the top Latin-American prospect on the market, for $4.25 million, the highest signing bonus to any non-Cuban international player in history. Beane also broke away from his trend of selecting college players in the first round of the Amateur Draft when he selected pitcher Trevor Cahill in the 2006 draft. Cahill is expected to make his major league debut sometime this season.
This off-season Beane traded away highly touted rookie Carlos Gonzalez to the Colorado Rockies for all star outfielder Matt Holliday. Holliday will be a free agent next year, which means Oakland will probably try to re-sign him.
All of the pieces are in place for Beane and the A's to go on a huge spending spree over the next two off-seasons. With Beane's talent recognition that helped the A's make the playoffs with inferior payrolls, the A's could be very dangerous with his hands on big market money.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Rising Stars - Madison Bumgarner
In 2008 the South Atlantic League (SAL) was swept away by 19 year old Madison Bumgarner. The lefthander compiled a line of:
141 IP 10.4 K/9 7.81 K/BB 1.46 ERA 0.93 WHIP
Bumgarner certainly has the stats, but does he have the stuff to go with it?
The Giants prospect has a big time fastball that sits in the mid 90's and can touch 97-98 with good life and pinpoint control. His other two pitches, curveball and changeup, lag far behind his fastball in movement, control, and development, grading as somewhat fringey pitches.
Bumgarner was able to dominate with only his fastball this year as evidenced by his extremely high K/BB ratio. He should be able to get by in the upper levels of the minors however he is going to need to develop stronger secondary offerings if he wants to make it in the majors.
Madison Bumgarner is only 19 and has plenty of time to work on his secondary offerings, however, if they do not develop then his usage in the majors may be limited to relief work.
141 IP 10.4 K/9 7.81 K/BB 1.46 ERA 0.93 WHIP
Bumgarner certainly has the stats, but does he have the stuff to go with it?
The Giants prospect has a big time fastball that sits in the mid 90's and can touch 97-98 with good life and pinpoint control. His other two pitches, curveball and changeup, lag far behind his fastball in movement, control, and development, grading as somewhat fringey pitches.
Bumgarner was able to dominate with only his fastball this year as evidenced by his extremely high K/BB ratio. He should be able to get by in the upper levels of the minors however he is going to need to develop stronger secondary offerings if he wants to make it in the majors.
Madison Bumgarner is only 19 and has plenty of time to work on his secondary offerings, however, if they do not develop then his usage in the majors may be limited to relief work.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)