Monday, March 1, 2010

James Loney

Since bursting onto the scene in 2007 with a line of .331/.381/.528 James Loney's production has regressed big time. To be fair, the expectations placed on Loney were lofty and very few players are able to live up to that sort of hype. Now, 3 years later, as a 26 year old coming off the worst season of his career Loney is running out of opportunities to prove he can become a successful major league 1st baseman.

Loney's biggest problem has been his obvious lack of power, his slugging percentage has dropped every year since he entered the league and now sits at .395, the second lowest mark in the majors this season. Even though he plays a position where power is a premium, Loney could still provide offensive value if he had strong on-base skills. Unfortunately his 8% walk rate is not nearly high enough to offset his sleight power.

On the upside, Loney does possess excellent contact skills, his 87.5% contact rate in 2010 was exactly in line with his career numbers. However, his batting average sat at .267 in 2010. Once again, this number would be fine if he his walk rate was around 12-15%.

At an extremely basic level, offensive players can help their team in two general ways: get on base, or hit for power. If a player can't hit for power (like Loney) then he needs to make up for it by getting on base. If he does not walk or hit, then there are very few ways left for someone like Loney to get on base.

Loney is an above-average defender, unfortunately he plays first base where defense has little value--certainly not enough to offset his recent offensive ineptitude.

There is still hope for James Loney, at 26 years old he is just entering his prime. Dodgers manager and former hitting coach Don Mattingley has said on plenty of occasions that he believes the young first baseman can develop into a star. It looks like Loney will get another year to prove he can live up to the hype. Should he fail, he will soon find out that free agency isn't very kind to light hitting 1st basemen who can't get on base or play gold glove caliber defense.

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