Saturday, March 7, 2009

Top 100 Prospects: 9-1

#9 Trevor Cahill, P, OAK - The 20 year old really blossomed in 2008, going 11-5 with a 2.61 ERA and 9.8 K/9 in 134 innings. Cahill is special because he mixes strikeouts with a ridiculous 60% groundball rate; this means that he gives up very few hard hit balls. He has a mid-90's 4-seam fastball and a sinking 2-seam fastball that sits around 90 mph; he couples his fastballs with a hard curveball that rates as a plus pitch. Cahill and Brett Anderson could both get shots are Oakland's rotation in 2009, look for him by mid-season.

#8 Rick Porcello. P, DET - Only he and Tim Alderson of the Giants pitched in A+ after being drafted out of high school in 2007. The 19 year old profiled as a strikeout pitcher but caused some concern when only posted a 5.2 K/9 rate. It turns out Porcello totally changed his approach; instead of striking batters out, he began throwing more 2-seam fastballs, which lead to a whopping 65% groundball rate. Make no mistake, Porcello still has a mid-90's fastball and a sharp slider, those should help him rack up more strikeouts as he develops. There is talk that Porcello could win a rotation spot with Detriot this year, that would be a mistake, he will most likely split 2009 between AA and AAA which will put him in excellent position to win a 2010 rotation spot.

#7 Dayan Viciedo, 3B, CHW - After defecting from Cuba and receiving Dominican citizenship in 2007, Viciedo signed with the White Sox in December of 2008. Chicago has said that the 19 year old will get a chance to compete for the big-league third base job in spring training. Viciedo should hit for both power and average, with good plate discipline; he came to America weighing about 260 pounds so he will have to slim down if he truly wants to win the White Sox third base job. The bottom line is 19 year olds who can hit for both power and average while competing for a major league job are few and far between, he should reach Chicago by mid-season at the latest.

#6 Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC - Unfortunately his shortstop days are over, but his bat is good enough to play anywhere on the diamond. In 2008, the 20 year old compiled a line of .272/.337/.468 with 22 homeruns in 496 A- at-bats. While his batting average is not overly impressive, Moustakas got off to a poor start batting around .200 over the first month of the season. When he reaches the big-leagues Moustakas should hit 30 homeruns annually with an average of at least .280 and solid plate discipline. He will probably split 2009 between A+ and AA, look for him in Kansas City by late-2010.

#5 Colby Rasmus, OF, STL - The 22 year old was expected to get some at-bats with St. Louis last year after a hot spring, but the Cardinals decided to send him to AAA for the first part of 2008. Rasmus struggled mightily for the first two months of the season, hitting just over .200; he rebounded with a great June but hurt his knee in July and missed the rest of the season. Overall, Rasmus compiled a line of .251/.345/.396 with 11 homers and 15 stolen bases in 331 at-bats. Rasmus once again showed solid plate discipline, walking 49 times and striking out 72 times. Ultimately, Rasmus' dreadful 2008 should not be cause for concern, every once in awhile someone has a bad year; he will once again compete for an everyday job in spring training, and should be up by mid-season at the latest.

#4 Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT - Drafted 3rd overall in 2008, Alvarez was at the center of a signing debacle, and thus did not get a chance to play pro ball last year. The former Vanderbilt standout has drawn some comparisons to Albert Pujols in his hitting approach and should hit for both power and average once he gets to the majors. Alvarez will probably need the first few months to get the rust off, as he hasn't played any baseball since last May, but once he does the results should be outstanding. He will probably start 2009 in A+, but he has a chance to move quickly once he gets his polish back; a September call-up in not out of the question.

#3 Travis Snider, OF, TOR - After a solid introductory performance to pro baseball in 2007, Snider flew though A+, AA, and AAA to earn a September call-up with the Blue Jays in 2008. in 484 minor league at-bats, Snider compiled a line of .275/.358/.481 with23 homeruns and 91 RBI. The 21 year old's plate discipline is definitely below average as he struck out 153 times last year and walked only 61 times. Snider has big time power and should be able to hit at least .270--even with poor plate discipline. Right now he is penciled in to be Toronto's starting left fielder, he will probably struggle to make consistent contact in 2009, but should be an all-star down the road.

#2 David Price, P, TB - The #1 selection in the 2007 draft wasted little time in 2008, he breezed through 3 minor league levels and on to a call-up with Tampa, where he got a chance to pitch in the playoffs. During his minor league stint, the 22 year old posted a 2.30 ERA and struck out 109 batters in as many innings (split between A+, AA, and AAA). Price, a 6'6" lefty has a mid 90's fastball, plus slider, and solid change up which he can throw for strikes. He should be Tampa's #4 or #5 starter in 2009 as his minor league days are over.

#1 Matt Wieters, C, BAL - It's not that Wieters is clearly ahead of Price as the #1 prospect--they're both very special talents, its that switch hitting catchers who profile to hit .300 with 30 homeruns, and can play solid defense don't come along that often. Weiters demolished A+ and AA in 2008 compiling a line of .355/.454/.600 with 27 homeruns and 91 RBI in 437 at-bats. It gets better, He walked 82 times while striking out 76 times, and he should be Baltimore's catcher by opening day. Wieters has the potential to end up in the hall of fame one day.

That wraps up our top 100 prospects for 2009, tomorrow we will have a link to our top 100 spreadsheet, thanks for reading.

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