Portland Sea Dogs vs. Trenton Thunder: 5/12&13/09

On Tuesday and Wednesday we went to Waterfront Park to see the Trenton Thunder (Yankees AA affiliate) take on the Portland Sea Dogs (Red Sox AA affiliate). If you are not familiar with Waterfront Park, you should know that while it's one of the nicest atmospheres to watch a ball game, it's deep dimensions and the wind that blows off of the Delaware River makes it almost impossible to hit homeruns. In the 30+ games I've seen there over the last 3 years, I think I've seen 5 homeruns. Here were some highlights from the series...

Trenton:

Alan Horne, SP - Horne was ranked #5 in the Yankees farm system by Baseball America in 2008 before injuring his arm and dropping to #25 in 2009. He only made it through 3 innings due to another arm injury. He cruised through the 1st inning but began wincing soon after that.

Reegie Corona, SS - He walked three times and hit a single and a double in his 8 plate appearances over the two-day span. The 22 year old looked extremely dialed in at the plate, his defense didn't disappoint either as he turned a few tough balls in outs.

Colin Curtis, OF - Curtis fell victim to Trenton's strong winds that knocked two long fly balls down at the warning track. Overall, he was quiet, only going 1-8 in the series.

Jorge Vazquez, 1B - The first thing Clyde and I said to each other was "wow, this guy is enormous!" Vazquez, who came over from the Mexican league, is listed at 225 pounds but looks much closer to 240. Weight aside, he can hit, going 2-8 with 3 RBI in the series, all while making some pretty nice defensive plays at first base for a man that size.

Ryan Pope, SP - The starter for the Wednesday game. Pope pitched an absolute gem, going 7 innings while only allowing one hit, striking out 6, and walking nobody. His arm did not appear to be overpowering but his command of his fastball, curve, and changeup was strong. However he was certainly helped by the wind keeping the balls in the park; on a different night he might have let up 3 or 4 homeruns.

Portland:

Junichi Tazawa, SP - After getting a lot of publicity in spring training, Tazawa has not disappointed so far. He dominated hitters, going 6 innings, striking out 7, walking 1, and scattering 3 hits in one of the best pitching performances I've ever seen live. He had a mid-90's fastball that hitters looked late on all night, and also mixed in a curve ball and splitter - both looked excellent. Every hitter he faced looked over matched at one point or another in their at-bat which showed as he induced a number of weak infield pop-ups and groundballs. The 22 year old held his velocity throughout the game while displaying fantastic command. I would not be surprised if Boston called him up at some point this season.

Lars Anderson, 1B - Anderson, who ranked #16 on our top 100 prospects list this spring has been off to a rough start, only hitting .230 with a few homeruns. Anderson struck out twice and walked 3 times in the first game. He went 1-4 in the second game. Anderson showed a lot of patience at the plate and got unlucky as he lined a few balls right to the defenders. Regardless, he should be an all-star some day.

Argenis Diaz, SS - Certainly known more for his glove than his bat, Diaz struggled mightily at the plate as he went 0-6 with a walk. He didn't strike out at all, but he also didn't hit anything besides weak ground balls. He managed to hit .286 last year split between A+ and AA but had little power. If he can't hit in the majors he will most likely be a fringe utility player. if he does find a way to hit, he could very easily win a gold glove.

Other Notables: Reid Engel (POR) hit the only homerun of the series, which went well over 400 feet...Bubba Bell (POR) made a few brilliant defensive plays in center field...Justin Snyder (TRE) only played on Wednesday but he went 1-1 with 3 walks...Eduadro Nunez (TRE) hit lead-off both days and went 2-9 with 4 strikeouts and a stolen base.

2009 Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

There was no greater surprise in 2008 than the Tampa Bay Rays, the team who finished with the worst record in baseball in 2007, making it to the World Series. Led by a strong pitching staff and star rookie Evan Longoria, the Rays took the entire league by storm and came up just short, losing to the Phillies.

Projected Lineup:
C - Dioner Navarro
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Akinori Iwamura
SS - Jason Bartlett
3B - Evan Longoria
LF - Carl Crawford
CF - BJ Upton
RF - Matt Joyce
DH - Pat Burrell

Projected Rotation:
#1 - James Shields
#2 - Matt Garza
#3 - Scott Kazmir
#4 - Andy Sonnanstine
#5 - Jeff Niemann

Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Niemann looks to have the job for the time being, but he has been extremely injury prone in the past. With a solid month or two in AAA, Wade Davis could force his way up.

2009 Outlook: The Rays play in baseball's toughest division, so proving that 2008 was not a fluke will be that much harder. BJ Upton's shoulder has healed and Carl Crawford will look to get back on track after injury woes kept him from getting going in 2008. The signing of Pat Burrell was a very good pickup because of Burrell's power and more consistent bat at the DH spot for the Rays.

The rotation will need to be fantastic for them to have any chance to repeat. Luckily, Shields, Kazmir, and Garza provide an excellent backbone. Each should get better in 2009, and that alone may be enough to keep them on top. Also, at some point the young David Price will be called up and will add to the already solid pitching of the Rays. The bullpen was led by Australian sensation Grant Balfour, he too will need to be excellent if they have title hopes in '09.

Projected Finish: 1st place, AL East.

2009 Preview: Boston Red Sox

In 2008 the Boston Red Sox were American League Wild Card winners and they were one win away from playing the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series. It was a roller coaster year for the Sox from Big Papi's injury, to Dustin Pedroia's MVP year, to Beckett's injury, to the outstanding play of Kevin Youkilis, to a playoff berth, to finally a heart-breaking playoff exit. Also, Dice K and Jon Lester really stepped up for Boston's rotation, as they just kept on winning games for the team. It was an overall good year, with a devastating finish.

Prjoected Lineup:

C - Jason Varitek

1B - Kevin Youkilis

2B - Dustin Pedroia

SS - Jed Lowrie

3B - Mike Lowell

LF - Jason Bay

CF - Jacoby Ellsbury

RF - JD Drew

DH - David Ortiz

Projected Rotation:

#1 - Josh Beckett

#2 - Daisuke Matsuzaka

#3 - Jon Lester

#4 - Tim Wakefield

#5 - Brad Penny

Closer - Jonathon Papelbon

Position Battles:

SS - Throughout the season Lowrie and Julio Lugo should split at short stop and whoever has the hot bat should get more of the playing time. Lowrie should begin the season as the starter.

#5 Starter - Right now Brad Penny looks to have the job won, but that does not mean it will be his all season. The Red Sox have Clay Buchholz and John Smoltz, who they signed in the off season, so either one of them could fill in for Penny if he starts to not pitch well.

2009 Outlook: The Red Sox should fight for another playoff berth in 2009. They return the same offense that they had a year before, which consists of the AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, and Jason Bay who should really power the offense once again. One thing that will make a big impact on Boston is the health of David Ortiz. If he can stay healthy than Boston should have no real offensive problems, but if he gets hurt again than the team will need to do some rotating of players and hope someone steps up, like Drew did in 08.

The pitching staff looks the same as in 2008, with the addition of Brad Penny and Smoltz who look to add to the already good pitching staff. Dice K made some big strides last year and is now one of the premier pitchers in the league and is showing why Boston payed top dollar to sign him. Jon Lester also had a breakout season last year going 16 - 6 and pitching in real big games when Boston needed a win. The big key to the staff is Josh Beckett and his health. If Beckett can stay healthy than this staff can be one of the best in all of baseball, but if gets hurt than either Buchholz or Smoltz will have to step up.

Projected Finish: 2nd Place, AL East

2009 Preview: New York Yankees

2007 was the start of the Joe Girardi era for the New York Yankees and it did not start off so great. The Yankees finished 3rd in the division and missed the playoffs for the first time in a decade. They were plagued by injuries and poor pitching. On the bright side, Mike Mussina had a brilliant year by winning 20 games for the first time in his career and Alex Rodriguez even though he did not play the whole season still put up great numbers. Outside of those two, everyone else on the team was pretty average and that led to their 89 - 73 record last season.

Projected Lineup:
C - Jorge Posada
1B - Mark Teixera
2B - Robinson Cano
SS - Derek Jeter
3B - Alex Rodriguez
LF - Johnny Damon
CF - Brett Gardner
RF - Xavier Nady
DH - Hideki Matsui

Projected Rotation:
#1 - CC Sabathia
#2 - Chien-Ming Wang
#3 - AJ Burnett
#4 - Andy Pettite
#5 - Joba Chamberlain
Closer - Mariano Rivera

Postion Battles:
CF - Brett Gardner won the spot in spring training but that does not mean that it is his all season. If he starts to falter, then Melky Cabrera will be eager to get in and prove that he is the starting center fielder.

2009 Outlook: This past off season the Yankees did what they do best, which is spend money. They went out and get CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Mark Texiera in hopes of another return to the playoffs and another World Series Championship.

The offense looks as if it will be really good as long as everyone can stay healthy. They have a fairly old lineup and Alex Rodriguez is the first person to go down with an injury. A-Rod's injury should hurt them at the beginning of the season, but when he comes back he will put up the number that he always does. Jorge Posada is healthy and is hoping to improve on his awful 2008.

The pitching on paper looks as if it should be one of the best, but it is definitely the weakness of the Yankees. AJ Burnett is known for not staying healthy and so nobody knows how he will do. CC Sabathia started off really slow in the AL last year with the Cleveland Indians and then turned it on when he moved to the NL. So it should be interesting to see how he does back in the AL, in a very tough AL East. Joba Chamberlain has not proven to be a consistent solid starter yet, but he is still young. This could be the year that he turns it around and becomes the stud starter than everyone is expecting him to be. Finally, Mariano Rivera is old and skills are dimenishing, but he can still get the job done. If he can stay healthy, then the Yankees will be fine in the late innings.

Overall, this team could be really good or they can be an average team, but it really depends on players staying healthy and the consistency of the starting rotation. They will definitely be in the race for a playoff spot, but I do not know if they will actually make it.

Projected Finish: 3rd Place, AL East

Pitching Projections Are Up!

We finished up our pitching projections today, they can be found in the "Projections" section on the right side of our page. You can also email us for the projections in excel or .pdf format.

Our methodology for the pitching projections was pretty much the same as it was for the hitting projections. The biggest difference is that 2008 is weighted much heavier for the pitchers, due to the higher year-to-year swings in their stats.

2009 Preview: New York Mets

For the second year in a row the Mets went into the year as the favorite to win the NL East and blew a September lead, causing them to miss the playoffs. The root of their troubles was an awful bullpen which blew a whopping 29 saves in 2008. On the bright side, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Johan Santana continued to be among the best at their respective positions. The Mets also got exceptional contributions from their farm system as David Murphy, Nick Evans, and Fernando Tatis all filled in when Ryan Church went down with injuries.

Projected Lineup:
C - Brian Schneider
1B - Carlos Delgado
2B - Luis Castillo
SS - Jose Reyes
3B - David Wright
LF - Danny Murphy
CF - Carlos Beltran
RF - Ryan Church

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Johan Santana
#2 - Mike Pelfrey
#3 - Oliver Perez
#4 - John Maine
#5 - Livan Hernandez
Closer - Francisco Rodriguez

Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Livan Hernandez will get the first crack at the rotation, but he'll be lucky if he makes it through April. Freddy Garcia and Jon Neise will be next in line to join the rotation.

2009 Outlook: It's going to be an exciting year for the Mets, they're moving into a new stadium, they have an explosive lineup and two big free agent relievers in Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz who should sure up their bullpen. Carlos Delgado is coming off a career year, and at 36 2008 might have been his last great year, nevertheless, he should still be a lock for 25 homeruns and 100 RBI. David Wright is the best third baseman in the NL and Jose Reyes at least a top 3 shortstop--both of them should be great once again. Carlos Beltran has proven himself to be one of the top run producers and most exciting players in baseball today, he will be 32 in April but he definitely has a few great years left.

The rotation has some question marks. Johan Santana is arguably the best starter in all of baseball and a lock for at least 200 innings and about 15 wins. All of the rest of the Mets pitchers have qualities that could make them top 20 starters some day. Mike Pelfrey generates a lot of groundballs and has great stuff, but he has had trouble striking batters out in the big leagues. Oliver Perez can be absolutely dominating at times, but when he's not on his game, he's a disaster, if he ever gets his consistency problems worked out he will be great. John Maine has proved effective, but he is extremely inefficient; most games he struggles to reach the 6th inning, if he continues, he will put a lot of stress on that bullpen. The bullpen will be at least average this year, Putz and K-Rod were two of the best closers in the game over the last couple years, now they should be one of the best pairs of 8th and 9th inning guys in the game.

Projected Finish: 1st place, NL East.

2009 Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

After a disappointing playoff performance in 2007, the Phillies came into 2008 with optimism. While they had a bit of an up-and-down year, a late September winning streak and another Mets collapse catapulted the Fightin' Phils into the playoffs for the second straight year. Philadelphia cruised through the playoffs and defeated the Tampa Bay Rays for the World Series.

Projected Lineup:
C - Carlos Ruiz
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Jimmy Rollins
3B - Pedro Feliz
LF - Raul Ibanez
CF - Shane Victorino
RF - Jayson Werth

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Cole Hamels
#2 - Brett Myers
#3 - Joe Blanton
#4 - Jamie Moyer
#5 - J.A. Happ
Closer - Brad Lidge

Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Coming into spring training, Manager Charlie Manuel said the battle would be between Happ, Chan Ho Park, Kyle Kendrick, and Carlos Carrasco. Over the last few weeks the Phillies have said that both Kendrick and Carrasco will start 2008 in the minors, leaving just Park and Happ. With set-up man JC Romero suspended for the first 50 games of 2009 for violating the substance abuse policy, Manuel might be tempted to use Happ in Romero's place as a reliever.

2009 Outlook: The Phillies will have one of the most potent offenses in the NL yet again. Raul Ibanez comes of from Seattle to fill the void left by the departure of Pat Burrell. He, Utley, Howard, and Rollins will anchor the lineup. Outfielders Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth have proven to be spark plugs, and should once again use their speed to help get themselves into scoring position.

The rotation has a lot of question marks, Cole Hamels pitched close to 250 innings including the playoffs in 2008; he is having trouble with elbow soreness this spring. Brett Myers has said that he wants to be a closer, he had a terrible first half of last year, but appears to be back on track. Jaime Moyer will be 46 this year, which means there is almost no chance of him coming close to his 3,71 2008 ERA. Blanton has shown flashes of dominance in the past, but his lack of strikeouts coupled with a high walk rate does not bode well for the future. The Phillies had the best bullpen in 2008, and should be among the league leaders again this year, Brad Lidge was a perfect 41 for 41 in save opportunities and it looks like his troubles in Houston are behind him.

Projected Finish: 2nd Place, NL East.