2010 was a rough year for Brewers catchers, 28 year old George Kottaras and rookie Jonathan Lucroy combined to have one of the roughest years in the majors. While their struggles are reflected in their surface stats, both Kottaras and Lucroy's underlying numbers appear promising.
Kottares produced an abysmal .205/.305/.396 line with 9 homeruns in 250 at-bats in 2010. While his surface stats leave little to be desired, Kottaras produced a strong 13% walk rate which falls nicely in line with his 12% career mark. In addition, his .193 isolated power increased from .151 in 2009. To top it off, he sported an 82% contact rate. Ultimately, George Kottaras possesses a trifecta of impressive underlying skills which should lead to a much stronger offensive 2011. with only 312 career major league at-bats, Kottaras should continue to progress with time.
After a mid-season call up, Lucroy went on to hit .253/.300/.329 with 4 homeruns in 277 at-bats, a season even worse than Kottaras'. Similar to Kottaras, Lucroy's underlying stats suggest his offensive potential is greater than he showed in his rookie season. His 85% contact rate is quite strong and fully supported by his minor league numbers. He has never hit for a lot of power, only surpassing a .200 ISO once in the minors (High A in 2008), chances are his power will never be more than league average. Lucroy's plate discipline was below average in 2010, however his minor league numbers suggest he should be able to develop above average plate discipline. While he'll never hit for much power, Lucroy's plate discipline and contact skills will help become an above average offensive contributor in short order.
During their brief major league careers Kottaras has proven to be a better hitter against righthanded pitchers, while Lucroy has been stronger against lefthanders. This gives the Brewers the perfect opportunity platoon the two to ensure they get the most possible production out of their catchers. Neither catcher will ever be an all-star, but both will preform a lot better offensively in 2011.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Monday, March 1, 2010
James Loney
Since bursting onto the scene in 2007 with a line of .331/.381/.528 James Loney's production has regressed big time. To be fair, the expectations placed on Loney were lofty and very few players are able to live up to that sort of hype. Now, 3 years later, as a 26 year old coming off the worst season of his career Loney is running out of opportunities to prove he can become a successful major league 1st baseman.
Loney's biggest problem has been his obvious lack of power, his slugging percentage has dropped every year since he entered the league and now sits at .395, the second lowest mark in the majors this season. Even though he plays a position where power is a premium, Loney could still provide offensive value if he had strong on-base skills. Unfortunately his 8% walk rate is not nearly high enough to offset his sleight power.
On the upside, Loney does possess excellent contact skills, his 87.5% contact rate in 2010 was exactly in line with his career numbers. However, his batting average sat at .267 in 2010. Once again, this number would be fine if he his walk rate was around 12-15%.
At an extremely basic level, offensive players can help their team in two general ways: get on base, or hit for power. If a player can't hit for power (like Loney) then he needs to make up for it by getting on base. If he does not walk or hit, then there are very few ways left for someone like Loney to get on base.
Loney is an above-average defender, unfortunately he plays first base where defense has little value--certainly not enough to offset his recent offensive ineptitude.
There is still hope for James Loney, at 26 years old he is just entering his prime. Dodgers manager and former hitting coach Don Mattingley has said on plenty of occasions that he believes the young first baseman can develop into a star. It looks like Loney will get another year to prove he can live up to the hype. Should he fail, he will soon find out that free agency isn't very kind to light hitting 1st basemen who can't get on base or play gold glove caliber defense.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Wilmington Blue Rocks vs. Lynchburg Hillcats: 7/28&29/09
We headed down to Delaware to see the Wilmington Blue Rocks (Royals A+) face the Lynchburg Hillcats (Pirates A+). The Blue Rocks are especially prospect-laden with 1st round picks Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer anchoring a potent roster with includes 6 of The Royals top 15 Prospects.
Lynchburg:
Jose De Los Santos - The Hillcats lead-off hitter went 5-10 with a run and a stolen base over the two game
series. As a 24 year old in A+, he probably won't amount to much in the big leagues but he showed solid contact skills, and good speed.
Matt Hague - The Pirates 23rd best prospect according to Baseball America, Hague went 2-9 with a stolen base and two strikeouts. He lined out hard and just missed a homerun to dead center but the stolen base isn't really evidence of his speed; the Wilmington catcher was absolutely horrible throwing out runners.
Jeff Locke - The prize of the Nate McLouth trade, pitched a gem took a perfect ga
me into the 6th inning before giving up a homerun which ended up being his only blemish as his final line was 6 inning pitched, 7 strikeouts, 1 hit, 1 earned run, and no walks. He had an excellent 3 pitch mix highlighted by his superb changeup which he would throw in any count. His fastball had good movement but seemed to lack velocity and his curveball had sharp, almost slider-like break at the end, but thrown considerably slower. He had excellent control of all of his pitches and kept almost every hitter off balance.
Wilmington:
Eric Hosmer
- The 3rd overall pick in the 2008 draft went 0-8 with no strikeouts. It was a rough series for Hosmer who grounded out in all but one of his at-bats. On the upside, he is one of the youngest players in the league at only 19 years old, so he has plenty of time to develop into the star that he was touted to be. He made a bunch of excellent plays at first base and should be a perennial gold glove candidate.
Mike Moustakas - The Royals top prospect 3-7 with a homerun and a double. Moustakas
' most noticeable characteristic is his muscular frame, he couples his strength with a nice, compact swing which should allow him to hit for both power and average. Jeff Locke made him look silly in his first at-bat which ended with Moustakas flailing on one knee. He had a top-notch arm from third base and made a few nice defensive plays.
Danny Duffy - After being perfect through the first three innings Duffy fell apart in the fourth and left with an injury. His line ended up at 3.1 innings, 5 hits, 4 earned runs, 1 walk and three strikeouts. Over the first three innings he was absolutely dominant, his fastball sat in low 90's with good movement, his curveball was excellent and sat in the low-to-mid 70's with sharp 12-6 break, and his changeup had nice fade to it and fooled a batter so bad that his bat flew into the the dugout. As a lefty with three potential plus pitches Duffy could be a potential ace, check out the video in the post above above of him striking Matt Hague.
Videos of Moustakas and Hosmer will be available soon.
Lynchburg:
Jose De Los Santos - The Hillcats lead-off hitter went 5-10 with a run and a stolen base over the two game
series. As a 24 year old in A+, he probably won't amount to much in the big leagues but he showed solid contact skills, and good speed.Matt Hague - The Pirates 23rd best prospect according to Baseball America, Hague went 2-9 with a stolen base and two strikeouts. He lined out hard and just missed a homerun to dead center but the stolen base isn't really evidence of his speed; the Wilmington catcher was absolutely horrible throwing out runners.
Jeff Locke - The prize of the Nate McLouth trade, pitched a gem took a perfect ga
me into the 6th inning before giving up a homerun which ended up being his only blemish as his final line was 6 inning pitched, 7 strikeouts, 1 hit, 1 earned run, and no walks. He had an excellent 3 pitch mix highlighted by his superb changeup which he would throw in any count. His fastball had good movement but seemed to lack velocity and his curveball had sharp, almost slider-like break at the end, but thrown considerably slower. He had excellent control of all of his pitches and kept almost every hitter off balance.Wilmington:
Eric Hosmer
- The 3rd overall pick in the 2008 draft went 0-8 with no strikeouts. It was a rough series for Hosmer who grounded out in all but one of his at-bats. On the upside, he is one of the youngest players in the league at only 19 years old, so he has plenty of time to develop into the star that he was touted to be. He made a bunch of excellent plays at first base and should be a perennial gold glove candidate.Mike Moustakas - The Royals top prospect 3-7 with a homerun and a double. Moustakas
' most noticeable characteristic is his muscular frame, he couples his strength with a nice, compact swing which should allow him to hit for both power and average. Jeff Locke made him look silly in his first at-bat which ended with Moustakas flailing on one knee. He had a top-notch arm from third base and made a few nice defensive plays.Danny Duffy - After being perfect through the first three innings Duffy fell apart in the fourth and left with an injury. His line ended up at 3.1 innings, 5 hits, 4 earned runs, 1 walk and three strikeouts. Over the first three innings he was absolutely dominant, his fastball sat in low 90's with good movement, his curveball was excellent and sat in the low-to-mid 70's with sharp 12-6 break, and his changeup had nice fade to it and fooled a batter so bad that his bat flew into the the dugout. As a lefty with three potential plus pitches Duffy could be a potential ace, check out the video in the post above above of him striking Matt Hague.
Videos of Moustakas and Hosmer will be available soon.
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