On a cloudy Wednesday night, Clyde and I headed over to Waterfront Park to watch the Baltimore's AA affiliate, the Bowie Baysox, take on the Yankees AA affiliate, the Trenton Thunder. Contrary to The Weather Channel's beliefs, the rain held off and we were able to get the entire game in.
For the first time in my 30+ trips to Waterfront Park, the wind was blowing out. If you haven't read our Trenton Thunder write-ups before, you should know that strong winds blowing off the Delaware River usually keep the baseball in the yard. This coupled with rather deep dimensions makes it quite a struggle to hit homeruns.
Bowie:
Mike Costanzo, 3B - The former Phillies prospect had a solid night going 1-4 with a double and a strikeout. He also hit two long fly balls to left field, which may have been homeruns in some stadiums. Unfortunately the 25 year old third baseman will need to make more contact if he wants to see the majors; he struck out 159 times in 483 at-bats last year.
Unfortunately, Costanzo was the only notable player on the Baysox. They only managed 3 hits all night. Aside from Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe who pitched on previous days, Bowie had literally no prospects on their team.
Trenton:
WIlkin De la Rosa, P - This was my third time seeing de la Rosa pitch this season, and it was easily his most impressive start. In 6 innings he let up 2 hits, walked two, and punched out 8 batters, while allowing no runs and picking up the win. He generated a lot of groundballs as evidenced by his 5:3 groundout to airout ratio. There were a few times where he dialed his fastball up into the mid-90's and completely overpowered batters. His breaking ball and changeup both looked sharp as well.
Jesus Montero, C - The 19 year old made his first ever appearance in AA, after annihilating A+. He went 1-4 with a walk and an RBI on the night, singling his second time up, absolutely rocketing a ball between the shortstop and third baseman. Montero made a few nice blocks behind the plate, and played a bunt perfectly, but his throws to second were both slow and inaccurate, at 6'5 there are some concerns whether or not he can stay at catcher down the road. He was stuck out by Robert Valido, a shortstop who pitched an inning for whatever reason, with the bases loaded, other than that he had a great debut, especially when you consider most of his competition is 3 or 4 years older.
Colin Curtis, OF - Curtis who is a fringe prospect, hit a long homerun to right-centerfield his first time up. He went 1-3 with the homerun, RBI, and a strikeout before having to leave the game after being hit by a pitch.
Edwar Gonzalez, OF - He went 2-4 with a triple, 3 RBI, and a run. He also hit a long flyball to right field that would be gone in most ball parks.
Kanekoa Texeira, P - Texeira pitched 3 shutout innings, giving up 1 hit, striking out 2, walking none and getting the save. All of his outs (strikeouts aside) came via the groundball.
Trenton won 8-0
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Tommy Hanson Called Up
Last night Atlanta Braves fans and fantasy baseball owners around the country got their wish, when top prospect Tommy Hanson was finally called up to the majors. Since the Braves do not feel Tom Glavine get the job done, it's finally Hanson's time to make an impact in the major leagues. Everyone was wondering when he would be called up because he has been so dominant in the minor leagues.
2008 A+: 3 - 1/0.90 ERA/0.65 WHIP/40 innings/49 SO/11 BB/11.03 K/9
2008 AA: 8 - 4/3.03 ERA/1.13 WHIP/98 innings/114 SO/41 BB/10.47 K/9
2009 AAA: 3 - 3/1.49 ERA/0.86 WHIP/66.1 innings/ 90 SO/17 BB/ 12.21 K/9
Hanson pitched extremely well in A+ and AA in 2008, but in 2009 he took it to another level. His K/9 and K/BB went up and, his ERA and WHIP dropped dramatically. Moving up to AAA did not slow him down at all, he actually improved, so the Braves are hoping that his next transition goes as smoothly as the one from AA to AAA.
In his prime, Hanson could have as many as four plus pitches in his mid 90's fastball, 12-6 curve, changeup and slider. He only began using a slider midway through last season, but it improved rapidly over the second half and throughout the Arizona Fall League; now it may be his best pitch. With such a vast and advanced repertoire and control that took a giant step forward in 2008, should have less trouble than most young pitchers do as rookies. He doesn't induce a ton of groundballs, but that will play fine in Atlanta.
Hanson should be up for the rest of the year, and there is little doubt that he can succeed against major league hitters. The 22 year old is Atlanta's the future ace and his career begins on Saturday against the Brewers. He has the talent to be a perennial all-star and possibly even more.
2008 A+: 3 - 1/0.90 ERA/0.65 WHIP/40 innings/49 SO/11 BB/11.03 K/9
2008 AA: 8 - 4/3.03 ERA/1.13 WHIP/98 innings/114 SO/41 BB/10.47 K/9
2009 AAA: 3 - 3/1.49 ERA/0.86 WHIP/66.1 innings/ 90 SO/17 BB/ 12.21 K/9
Hanson pitched extremely well in A+ and AA in 2008, but in 2009 he took it to another level. His K/9 and K/BB went up and, his ERA and WHIP dropped dramatically. Moving up to AAA did not slow him down at all, he actually improved, so the Braves are hoping that his next transition goes as smoothly as the one from AA to AAA.
In his prime, Hanson could have as many as four plus pitches in his mid 90's fastball, 12-6 curve, changeup and slider. He only began using a slider midway through last season, but it improved rapidly over the second half and throughout the Arizona Fall League; now it may be his best pitch. With such a vast and advanced repertoire and control that took a giant step forward in 2008, should have less trouble than most young pitchers do as rookies. He doesn't induce a ton of groundballs, but that will play fine in Atlanta.
Hanson should be up for the rest of the year, and there is little doubt that he can succeed against major league hitters. The 22 year old is Atlanta's the future ace and his career begins on Saturday against the Brewers. He has the talent to be a perennial all-star and possibly even more.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Rising Stars - Brett Wallace
With the 13th overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft, the St Louis Cardinals, feeling the need for an impact bat and heir to Troy Glaus at third base chose 3rd baseman, Brett Wallace out of Arizona State. Going into the draft, Wallace had the reputation of an extremely polished hitter who could move quickly through the system. So far he hasn't disappointed, Posting a line of .282/.376/.426 with 7 home runs and 23 RBI to date, split between AA and AAA.
Wallace has had some problems with strikeouts in the past, but he has strong enough contact skills and plate discipline that his whiffs won't be a problem and may decrease as he becomes more acclimated with pro ball. In his prime he should hit for both excellent power and average; he has an excellent chance to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter with 30-40 home runs and at least 100 RBI.
The 22 year old has struggled mightily with his defense at the hot corner. At some point in his career, he will need to move to first base, which could be tough as it is occupied by arguably the best player in the game in Albert Pujols. He is also a below average runner and may have trouble keeping the agility needed to play third base in the short-term.
None of Wallace's numbers are eye popping, but we have to take into account his success at AAA when most of his peers are still at A+. The Cardinals' current 3rd baseman, Troy Glaus, is still recovering from off season surgery and his replacements have been sub-par to say the least. Wallace may get called up this season if Brian Barden and David Freese, don't shape up. If Brett Wallace produces, Glaus, Freese, and Barden will all be looking for new jobs next winter, and the Arizona State product will have the job locked down for a long time.
Wallace has had some problems with strikeouts in the past, but he has strong enough contact skills and plate discipline that his whiffs won't be a problem and may decrease as he becomes more acclimated with pro ball. In his prime he should hit for both excellent power and average; he has an excellent chance to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter with 30-40 home runs and at least 100 RBI.
The 22 year old has struggled mightily with his defense at the hot corner. At some point in his career, he will need to move to first base, which could be tough as it is occupied by arguably the best player in the game in Albert Pujols. He is also a below average runner and may have trouble keeping the agility needed to play third base in the short-term.
None of Wallace's numbers are eye popping, but we have to take into account his success at AAA when most of his peers are still at A+. The Cardinals' current 3rd baseman, Troy Glaus, is still recovering from off season surgery and his replacements have been sub-par to say the least. Wallace may get called up this season if Brian Barden and David Freese, don't shape up. If Brett Wallace produces, Glaus, Freese, and Barden will all be looking for new jobs next winter, and the Arizona State product will have the job locked down for a long time.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Kendry Morales: All-Star?
After defecting from Cuba in 2005, Kendry Morales looks like he's finally becoming the player everyone thought he would be. The 25 year old is currently on pace for 25 homeruns and 100 RBI, with a little luck he could be on his way to his first all-star game. Here is his line to date:
175 AB / .280/.332/.503 / 8 HR / 30 RBI / 7.9% BB% / .303 BABIP
None of Morales' peripheral stats are way out of line; his .45 BB/K rate is a hair below average but nothing to be too worried about. His .306 BABIP is right in line with the major league average and his .503 SLG shows he's been hitting with some power.
While he's been old for every level, Morales' track record is outstanding. He has never hit below .300 at any minor league level. Morales has also shown solid power as he has hit at least 15 homeruns at every level. His walk rate has been inconsitent, but he has never had contact troubles.
Morales' only noteworthy flaw has been his inconsitency, he goes though tremedous slumps and hot streaks, but the Angels have stuck with him through thick and thin. The season is only 1/4 done, and we still don't know how well he will translate his talent to full major league campaign, but either way Kendry Morales should be an above-average contributer with the potential to be even more if he can improve his consistency.
175 AB / .280/.332/.503 / 8 HR / 30 RBI / 7.9% BB% / .303 BABIP
None of Morales' peripheral stats are way out of line; his .45 BB/K rate is a hair below average but nothing to be too worried about. His .306 BABIP is right in line with the major league average and his .503 SLG shows he's been hitting with some power.
While he's been old for every level, Morales' track record is outstanding. He has never hit below .300 at any minor league level. Morales has also shown solid power as he has hit at least 15 homeruns at every level. His walk rate has been inconsitent, but he has never had contact troubles.
Morales' only noteworthy flaw has been his inconsitency, he goes though tremedous slumps and hot streaks, but the Angels have stuck with him through thick and thin. The season is only 1/4 done, and we still don't know how well he will translate his talent to full major league campaign, but either way Kendry Morales should be an above-average contributer with the potential to be even more if he can improve his consistency.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Zach Duke?!?
Ten starts into 2009 and Zach Duke is cruisin' . The 26 year old who is 5-4 with a 2.75 ERA, appears poised to make the first all-star game of his career. Yes, that's right, the same Zach Duke who went 18-37 in the years after his magical 2005 season when he burst onto the scene, going 8-2 with a sparkling 1.81 ERA in 14 starts. Here are his '09 numbers to date:
72 IP / 5-4 / 2.75 ERA / 42 SO / 17 BB / 1.11 WHIP / .268 BABIP / 75.9% LOB%
One of the driving forces behind his fantastic ERA has been his K/9 rate. While its still pathetic, it's sitting a 5.3 which is up from his 4.6 career K/9. Duke has kept his walks in line with his career numbers, at around 2.4 per 9 innings. The outlier is his .5 HR/9 rate which will be extremely hard to maintain for an entire season.
Duke has a discouraging batted ball trend that will not bode well with his low HR/9 rate. After inducing 51.1% groundballs in 2006, Duke's GB% has dropped each year and now sits at 45.5% for the '09 campaign. His flyball rate has increased each year from a tidy 26.4% in 2005 up to 35.5% in 2009--and more flyballs means more homeruns.
The bottom line is Duke has some fatal career trends that, with a little more time, will most likely prove to be the undoing to a brilliant first quarter of baseball. When you throw in a .267 BABIP which is nowhere close to his career .324 mark,you can be almost certain that Zach Duke will revert to his former ways, maybe worse.
72 IP / 5-4 / 2.75 ERA / 42 SO / 17 BB / 1.11 WHIP / .268 BABIP / 75.9% LOB%
One of the driving forces behind his fantastic ERA has been his K/9 rate. While its still pathetic, it's sitting a 5.3 which is up from his 4.6 career K/9. Duke has kept his walks in line with his career numbers, at around 2.4 per 9 innings. The outlier is his .5 HR/9 rate which will be extremely hard to maintain for an entire season.
Duke has a discouraging batted ball trend that will not bode well with his low HR/9 rate. After inducing 51.1% groundballs in 2006, Duke's GB% has dropped each year and now sits at 45.5% for the '09 campaign. His flyball rate has increased each year from a tidy 26.4% in 2005 up to 35.5% in 2009--and more flyballs means more homeruns.
The bottom line is Duke has some fatal career trends that, with a little more time, will most likely prove to be the undoing to a brilliant first quarter of baseball. When you throw in a .267 BABIP which is nowhere close to his career .324 mark,you can be almost certain that Zach Duke will revert to his former ways, maybe worse.
Friday, May 29, 2009
A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing
This year there have been many outstanding pitchers and one who is flying under the radar is Randy Wolf. Last night Wolf had another very good outing for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as he picked up the win going 7 innings against the Chicago Cubs allowing one earned run, one walk, and striking out 7. Wolf only allowed 2 extra base hits and only 2 fly ball outs, meaning that the rest of the outs were via groundball or strikeouts, which is a fantastic sign. Going in to last night's game this is what he has done.
2009: 10 GS/62.2 IP/2-1/3.02 ERA/1.12 WHIP/50 Ks/19 BBs
Before last nights game Wolf ranked 10th in the NL in ERA and last night he lowered it even more. He uses big slow curveball, to set up his 90 MPH fastball and vice versa, which leaves batters off balance and leads to more strikeouts. He is an extreme flyball pitcher (45.6%), but that should play fine in the vast outfields of Dodger Stadium. Wolf's true improvement in 2009 has been his control. His BB/9 rate (2.73) is his lowest since 2004 and his K/BB ratio (2.63) is his best since 2002, which is great to see and can point to a possible breakout.
Wolf should certainly break the 10 win mark this year with about 150 strikeouts; and if he can stay healthy, the 32 year old will be extremely valuable in the Dodgers hunt for the playoffs. At this point in his career, he is by no means an ace but, Randy Wolf can go out every five days and give his team an excellent chance to win.
2009: 10 GS/62.2 IP/2-1/3.02 ERA/1.12 WHIP/50 Ks/19 BBs
Before last nights game Wolf ranked 10th in the NL in ERA and last night he lowered it even more. He uses big slow curveball, to set up his 90 MPH fastball and vice versa, which leaves batters off balance and leads to more strikeouts. He is an extreme flyball pitcher (45.6%), but that should play fine in the vast outfields of Dodger Stadium. Wolf's true improvement in 2009 has been his control. His BB/9 rate (2.73) is his lowest since 2004 and his K/BB ratio (2.63) is his best since 2002, which is great to see and can point to a possible breakout.
Wolf should certainly break the 10 win mark this year with about 150 strikeouts; and if he can stay healthy, the 32 year old will be extremely valuable in the Dodgers hunt for the playoffs. At this point in his career, he is by no means an ace but, Randy Wolf can go out every five days and give his team an excellent chance to win.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
A Healthy Back Means a Better Feliz
Going into the 2008 season, the Philadelphia Phillies made a very good move in acquiring Pedro Feliz. The Phillies were in desperate need of a third baseman and Pedro fit perfectly. He is a great defensive third baseman, who also was hitting 20 homeruns consistently at the pitcher friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco. Here are his numbers as a Giant, starting in 2004, his first full major league year.
2004: .276/.305/.485/22 HR/72 Runs/84 RBI/33 BB
2005: .250/.295/.422/20 HR/69 Runs/81 RBI/38 BB
2006: .244/.281/.482/22 HR/75 Runs/98 RBI/33 BB
2007: .253/.290/.418/20 HR/61 Runs/72 RBI/29 BB
Feliz has never been one to hit for average but the power has always been there and he has never played half of his games in a hitters park. The Phillies were expecting great defense and good power from him in 2008, but the power was not exactly at the same level as in years past. Here are his 2008 numbers with the Phillies.
2008: .249/.302/.402/14 HR/43 Runs/58 RBI/33 BB
His SLG%, OPS, and homerun totals were his lowest since the 2002 season. The reason his runs and rbis were down were because of where he batted in the lineup. In San Francisco, Feliz batted in either the 3, 4, or 5 spot and was protected by Barry Bonds or driven home because of Bonds.
Another problem in 2008 was his back. Most of the year he had an injured back, but decided to play through it and opted to wait to undergo surgery. Also, Pedro Feliz's BABIP (.258) was his lowest since 2003. Even though his power numbers were down, his back was hurting him throughout the year, and his BABIP was lower than usual, Feliz had his best OBP since 2004, his best BB% (7.2%) ever, and his best BB/K ratio (.61) ever. Those are excellent signs to see in a hitter and now that Pedro had the off season back surgery, he is putting his new plate discipline together with his old power and the results are showing in 2009.
2009: .307/.373/.433/2 HR/19 runs/ 25 RBI/17 BB
Yes, it's still not even half way through the season, but it is already obvious that the back surgery has helped considerably. His BABIP so far is .341, which is well above his career average, so it should come down, but everything so far points to a very good 2009 for Feliz. He should get back to his 20 homeruns due to his healthy back and the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. Also, Pedro is showing off his new plate discipline by having a 10.2 BB% and .89 BB/K ratio, which are his highest percentages by far and if he can keep that up he will exceed the expectations that the Phillies had for him when they signed him after the 2007 season. This is looking like a career year for Pedro Feliz and he will play a big part in the success of the Phillies the rest of the way.
2004: .276/.305/.485/22 HR/72 Runs/84 RBI/33 BB
2005: .250/.295/.422/20 HR/69 Runs/81 RBI/38 BB
2006: .244/.281/.482/22 HR/75 Runs/98 RBI/33 BB
2007: .253/.290/.418/20 HR/61 Runs/72 RBI/29 BB
Feliz has never been one to hit for average but the power has always been there and he has never played half of his games in a hitters park. The Phillies were expecting great defense and good power from him in 2008, but the power was not exactly at the same level as in years past. Here are his 2008 numbers with the Phillies.
2008: .249/.302/.402/14 HR/43 Runs/58 RBI/33 BB
His SLG%, OPS, and homerun totals were his lowest since the 2002 season. The reason his runs and rbis were down were because of where he batted in the lineup. In San Francisco, Feliz batted in either the 3, 4, or 5 spot and was protected by Barry Bonds or driven home because of Bonds.
Another problem in 2008 was his back. Most of the year he had an injured back, but decided to play through it and opted to wait to undergo surgery. Also, Pedro Feliz's BABIP (.258) was his lowest since 2003. Even though his power numbers were down, his back was hurting him throughout the year, and his BABIP was lower than usual, Feliz had his best OBP since 2004, his best BB% (7.2%) ever, and his best BB/K ratio (.61) ever. Those are excellent signs to see in a hitter and now that Pedro had the off season back surgery, he is putting his new plate discipline together with his old power and the results are showing in 2009.
2009: .307/.373/.433/2 HR/19 runs/ 25 RBI/17 BB
Yes, it's still not even half way through the season, but it is already obvious that the back surgery has helped considerably. His BABIP so far is .341, which is well above his career average, so it should come down, but everything so far points to a very good 2009 for Feliz. He should get back to his 20 homeruns due to his healthy back and the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. Also, Pedro is showing off his new plate discipline by having a 10.2 BB% and .89 BB/K ratio, which are his highest percentages by far and if he can keep that up he will exceed the expectations that the Phillies had for him when they signed him after the 2007 season. This is looking like a career year for Pedro Feliz and he will play a big part in the success of the Phillies the rest of the way.
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