Lakewood Blueclaws vs. Hagerstown Suns: 5/27/12

Clyde and I battled Memorial Day beach traffic to make it down to FirstEnergy Park in Lakewood, New Jersey to watch the  Low-A affiliates of the Phillies and Nationals.

Hagerstown (Nationals):

Brian Goodwin - As 1st round supplemental pick out of junior college last June, Goodwin was advanced enough to handle full season ball right away. So far, in 51 at-bats he has compiled a line of .275/.406/.529 with 3 stolen bases. On Sunday, he did a little bit of everything, going 2-3 with a double, and a walk. He already has solid gap power which, coupled with his speed, should allow him to rack up extra base hits. If he continues to excel in low-A, Goodwin has a chance to move up in the second half of the season and could move quickly through the rest of the system.

Cutter Dykstra - A 2nd round pick in 2008, Dykstra went 3-4 with a double and stolen base. He did not get many attempts at second base so it was hard to judge his defense.

Matt Skole - The current SAL homerun leader and 2012 5th round pick went 0-2 with 3 walks (one intentional) and 2 strikeouts. As the walks indicate, he showed solid plate discipline, however most of the pitches he faced were well out of the zone. He has a strong arm at third base and made some nice defensive plays.

Lakewood (Phillies):

Aaron Altherr - The first word that comes to mind upon seeing the 6'5" 190 pound Altherr is "lanky". In his first at-bat, Altherr laced the first pitch he saw into right-center field, then with an exceptional combination of speed and baserunning instinct, he effortlessly rounded first and hustled to second on a ball that would have been a single for most players. He finished the day 2-5 with the aforementioned double and a strikeout. Altherr had trouble laying off pitches out of the zone and will need to tone down his aggression in order to grow as a hitter.

Kelly Dugan - A 2nd round pick back in 2009, Dugan went 1-3 on Sunday, crushing a homerun well over 400 feet to right field. So far he has hit .270/.368/.490 with 4 homeruns in 100 at bats.

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Brewers Catchers

2010 was a rough year for Brewers catchers, 28 year old George Kottaras and rookie Jonathan Lucroy combined to have one of the roughest years in the majors. While their struggles are reflected in their surface stats, both Kottaras and Lucroy's underlying numbers appear promising.

Kottares produced an abysmal .205/.305/.396 line with 9 homeruns in 250 at-bats in 2010. While his surface stats leave little to be desired, Kottaras produced a strong 13% walk rate which falls nicely in line with his 12% career mark. In addition, his .193 isolated power increased from .151 in 2009. To top it off, he sported an 82% contact rate. Ultimately, George Kottaras possesses a trifecta of impressive underlying skills which should lead to a much stronger offensive 2011. with only 312 career major league at-bats, Kottaras should continue to progress with time.

After a mid-season call up, Lucroy went on to hit .253/.300/.329 with 4 homeruns in 277 at-bats, a season even worse than Kottaras'. Similar to Kottaras, Lucroy's underlying stats suggest his offensive potential is greater than he showed in his rookie season. His 85% contact rate is quite strong and fully supported by his minor league numbers. He has never hit for a lot of power, only surpassing a .200 ISO once in the minors (High A in 2008), chances are his power will never be more than league average. Lucroy's plate discipline was below average in 2010, however his minor league numbers suggest he should be able to develop above average plate discipline. While he'll never hit for much power, Lucroy's plate discipline and contact skills will help become an above average offensive contributor in short order.

During their brief major league careers Kottaras has proven to be a better hitter against righthanded pitchers, while Lucroy has been stronger against lefthanders. This gives the Brewers the perfect opportunity platoon the two to ensure they get the most possible production out of their catchers. Neither catcher will ever be an all-star, but both will preform a lot better offensively in 2011.

James Loney

Since bursting onto the scene in 2007 with a line of .331/.381/.528 James Loney's production has regressed big time. To be fair, the expectations placed on Loney were lofty and very few players are able to live up to that sort of hype. Now, 3 years later, as a 26 year old coming off the worst season of his career Loney is running out of opportunities to prove he can become a successful major league 1st baseman.

Loney's biggest problem has been his obvious lack of power, his slugging percentage has dropped every year since he entered the league and now sits at .395, the second lowest mark in the majors this season. Even though he plays a position where power is a premium, Loney could still provide offensive value if he had strong on-base skills. Unfortunately his 8% walk rate is not nearly high enough to offset his sleight power.

On the upside, Loney does possess excellent contact skills, his 87.5% contact rate in 2010 was exactly in line with his career numbers. However, his batting average sat at .267 in 2010. Once again, this number would be fine if he his walk rate was around 12-15%.

At an extremely basic level, offensive players can help their team in two general ways: get on base, or hit for power. If a player can't hit for power (like Loney) then he needs to make up for it by getting on base. If he does not walk or hit, then there are very few ways left for someone like Loney to get on base.

Loney is an above-average defender, unfortunately he plays first base where defense has little value--certainly not enough to offset his recent offensive ineptitude.

There is still hope for James Loney, at 26 years old he is just entering his prime. Dodgers manager and former hitting coach Don Mattingley has said on plenty of occasions that he believes the young first baseman can develop into a star. It looks like Loney will get another year to prove he can live up to the hype. Should he fail, he will soon find out that free agency isn't very kind to light hitting 1st basemen who can't get on base or play gold glove caliber defense.

Tim Alderson

Eric Hosmer and Jeff Locke

Mike Moustakas

Danny Duffy