Baseball Stalker

New Articles (we swear)

2011-07-19T02:11:00.004-04:00

So obviously we have been terrible about updating this, however...

New articles will be coming within the next two weeks, unfortunately articles will appear sporadically as we both go to school full time and have jobs.

In the next week or two you can look forward to a series of articles regarding the draft, including a study on whether it's a good idea for a team to sign a player to an over-slot deal.

Follow us on twitter @baseballstalker to receive tweets about new articles as soon as they are posted.

Thanks!

Brewers Catchers

2010-03-02T17:34:00.000-05:00

2010 was a rough year for Brewers catchers, 28 year old George Kottaras and rookie Jonathan Lucroy combined to have one of the roughest years in the majors. While their struggles are reflected in their surface stats, both Kottaras and Lucroy's underlying numbers appear promising.

Kottares produced an abysmal .205/.305/.396 line with 9 homeruns in 250 at-bats in 2010. While his surface stats leave little to be desired, Kottaras produced a strong 13% walk rate which falls nicely in line with his 12% career mark. In addition, his .193 isolated power increased from .151 in 2009. To top it off, he sported an 82% contact rate. Ultimately, George Kottaras possesses a trifecta of impressive underlying skills which should lead to a much stronger offensive 2011. with only 312 career major league at-bats, Kottaras should continue to progress with time.

After a mid-season call up, Lucroy went on to hit .253/.300/.329 with 4 homeruns in 277 at-bats, a season even worse than Kottaras'. Similar to Kottaras, Lucroy's underlying stats suggest his offensive potential is greater than he showed in his rookie season. His 85% contact rate is quite strong and fully supported by his minor league numbers. He has never hit for a lot of power, only surpassing a .200 ISO once in the minors (High A in 2008), chances are his power will never be more than league average. Lucroy's plate discipline was below average in 2010, however his minor league numbers suggest he should be able to develop above average plate discipline. While he'll never hit for much power, Lucroy's plate discipline and contact skills will help become an above average offensive contributor in short order.

During their brief major league careers Kottaras has proven to be a better hitter against righthanded pitchers, while Lucroy has been stronger against lefthanders. This gives the Brewers the perfect opportunity platoon the two to ensure they get the most possible production out of their catchers. Neither catcher will ever be an all-star, but both will preform a lot better offensively in 2011.

James Loney

2010-03-01T19:43:00.000-05:00

Since bursting onto the scene in 2007 with a line of .331/.381/.528 James Loney's production has regressed big time. To be fair, the expectations placed on Loney were lofty and very few players are able to live up to that sort of hype. Now, 3 years later, as a 26 year old coming off the worst season of his career Loney is running out of opportunities to prove he can become a successful major league 1st baseman.

Loney's biggest problem has been his obvious lack of power, his slugging percentage has dropped every year since he entered the league and now sits at .395, the second lowest mark in the majors this season. Even though he plays a position where power is a premium, Loney could still provide offensive value if he had strong on-base skills. Unfortunately his 8% walk rate is not nearly high enough to offset his sleight power.

On the upside, Loney does possess excellent contact skills, his 87.5% contact rate in 2010 was exactly in line with his career numbers. However, his batting average sat at .267 in 2010. Once again, this number would be fine if he his walk rate was around 12-15%.

At an extremely basic level, offensive players can help their team in two general ways: get on base, or hit for power. If a player can't hit for power (like Loney) then he needs to make up for it by getting on base. If he does not walk or hit, then there are very few ways left for someone like Loney to get on base.

Loney is an above-average defender, unfortunately he plays first base where defense has little value--certainly not enough to offset his recent offensive ineptitude.

There is still hope for James Loney, at 26 years old he is just entering his prime. Dodgers manager and former hitting coach Don Mattingley has said on plenty of occasions that he believes the young first baseman can develop into a star. It looks like Loney will get another year to prove he can live up to the hype. Should he fail, he will soon find out that free agency isn't very kind to light hitting 1st basemen who can't get on base or play gold glove caliber defense.

Tim Alderson

2009-07-31T00:28:00.005-04:00

Eric Hosmer and Jeff Locke

2009-07-29T23:57:00.000-04:00

Mike Moustakas

2009-07-29T23:55:00.000-04:00

Danny Duffy

2009-07-29T23:51:00.000-04:00

Wilmington Blue Rocks vs. Lynchburg Hillcats: 7/28&29/09

2009-07-29T20:00:00.001-04:00

We headed down to Delaware to see the Wilmington Blue Rocks (Royals A+) face the Lynchburg Hillcats (Pirates A+). The Blue Rocks are especially prospect-laden with 1st round picks Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer anchoring a potent roster with includes 6 of The Royals top 15 Prospects.

Lynchburg:

Jose De Los Santos - The Hillcats lead-off hitter went 5-10 with a run and a stolen base over the two game series. As a 24 year old in A+, he probably won't amount to much in the big leagues but he showed solid contact skills, and good speed.

Matt Hague - The Pirates 23rd best prospect according to Baseball America, Hague went 2-9 with a stolen base and two strikeouts. He lined out hard and just missed a homerun to dead center but the stolen base isn't really evidence of his speed; the Wilmington catcher was absolutely horrible throwing out runners.

Jeff Locke - The prize of the Nate McLouth trade, pitched a gem took a perfect game into the 6th inning before giving up a homerun which ended up being his only blemish as his final line was 6 inning pitched, 7 strikeouts, 1 hit, 1 earned run, and no walks. He had an excellent 3 pitch mix highlighted by his superb changeup which he would throw in any count. His fastball had good movement but seemed to lack velocity and his curveball had sharp, almost slider-like break at the end, but thrown considerably slower. He had excellent control of all of his pitches and kept almost every hitter off balance.

Wilmington:

Eric Hosmer - The 3rd overall pick in the 2008 draft went 0-8 with no strikeouts. It was a rough series for Hosmer who grounded out in all but one of his at-bats. On the upside, he is one of the youngest players in the league at only 19 years old, so he has plenty of time to develop into the star that he was touted to be. He made a bunch of excellent plays at first base and should be a perennial gold glove candidate.

Mike Moustakas - The Royals top prospect 3-7 with a homerun and a double. Moustakas' most noticeable characteristic is his muscular frame, he couples his strength with a nice, compact swing which should allow him to hit for both power and average. Jeff Locke made him look silly in his first at-bat which ended with Moustakas flailing on one knee. He had a top-notch arm from third base and made a few nice defensive plays.

Danny Duffy - After being perfect through the first three innings Duffy fell apart in the fourth and left with an injury. His line ended up at 3.1 innings, 5 hits, 4 earned runs, 1 walk and three strikeouts. Over the first three innings he was absolutely dominant, his fastball sat in low 90's with good movement, his curveball was excellent and sat in the low-to-mid 70's with sharp 12-6 break, and his changeup had nice fade to it and fooled a batter so bad that his bat flew into the the dugout. As a lefty with three potential plus pitches Duffy could be a potential ace, check out the video in the post above above of him striking Matt Hague.

Videos of Moustakas and Hosmer will be available soon.

Whats New

2009-07-28T11:58:00.001-04:00

Hey Everybody!

We are now on Twitter! you can follow us at www.twitter.com/baseballstalker. We'll be at baseball games all day tomorrow (7/29) tweeting away so make sure to check it out.

We've also redone the site a little bit--be sure to check out the prospect videos on the right-hand side.

New game summaries involving top prospects Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Danny Duffy, Jesus Montero and more should be up by Saturday along with a few new articles next week.

Thanks!

Portland Sea Dogs vs. Trenton Thunder: 7/18/09

2009-07-20T10:49:00.004-04:00

We decided to go to the game at the last minute on Thursday and missed the first inning, but we were treated to an excellent pitching performance by Junichi Tazawa.

Trenton:

Reegie Corona - The speedy shortstop went 2-4 with a double and made a few nice defensive plays. He has excellent range and a pretty good arm, If he can continue to develop at the plate he could be a solid big leaguer.

Portland:

Junichi Tazawa - Tazawa went 5 innings giving up 5 hits and 1 run while striking out 4 and walking none. His fastball sat between 90-91 mph throughout the game and ramped it up to 93 a few times with good movement. His curve was an absolute gem, sitting around 72-75 mph with excellent depth. He also showed a pretty nice mid-80's splitter, but most impressive, was his feel for pitching, he showed excellent command of his pitches, and 3 out of his strikeouts ended with the batter flailing on one knee.

Josh Reddick - We missed Reddick when we saw Portland earlier in the year as he was on the DL. He didn't disappoint, going 1-3 with a double, two walks, and an RBI, His double banged off of the wall in left center and came excruciatingly close to being a homerun.

Miguel Abreu

2009-07-16T23:42:00.001-04:00

Jesus Montero

2009-07-16T23:29:00.000-04:00

Eastern League All-Star Game: 7/15/09

2009-07-16T21:52:00.005-04:00

Yesterday Clyde and I attended the Eastern League All-Star Game at Waterfront Park in Trenton. After a lackluster Homerun Derby, the actual game was delightful, The Southern Division ended up winning 4-3.

Northern Division:

Rene Tosoni - Coming off a Futures Game appearance where he was awarded MVP honors over the weekend, Tosoni a disappointing game a the plate going 0-4 with a walk a run scored, and a strikeout.

Lars Anderson - Boston's top prospect played the second half of the game going 0-2 with a strikeout. He looked uncomfortable both in the Homerun derby (where he hit only 1 homerun) and during the game where he seemed off-balance a lot. He smoked a ball that would have been a double if not for an excellent defensive play by the center fielder.

Jesus Montero - Montero who was an injury replacement, played the second half of the game and showed that despite only being 19 years old he could handle the best that AA had to offer, going 2-2, with one of his hits being of the infield variety. He runs very well for his size and appears athletic. Unfortunately, he still looked very poor defensively, runners were a perfect 4-4 in stolen base attempts against him in only 4 innings behind the plate.

Most of his throwing problems seem to stem from a varying arm angle, sometimes he correctly cocks his arm behind his head before releasing the ball, generally resulting in a good throw. Other times he almost seems to wind-mill the ball to second base, usually resulting in the ball bouncing before it reaches the second baseman or flying into the outfield. I don't think his throwing troubles are due to lack of talent, just inconsistency.

Zach McAllister - The starter for the North, McAllister pitched 1 inning and gave up 1 hit. He seemed to command his pitches well, and breezed through the inning.

Southern Division:

Miguel Abreu - The All-Star Game MVP went 2-4 with 2 stolen bases and 2 runs. He ran very well and also got excellent jumps on his stolen bases He also made two nice defensive plays at second base. There have been some questions about his plate discipline and he's old for his level at age 24 but contact skills and speed could get him to the big leagues.

Carlos Santana - Santana went 0-1 and got hit by a pitch in his only two plate appearances of the game. He showed off some pop in the homerun derby hitting his only two homeruns well out of the stadium.

Nick Weglarz - Weglarz went 0-2 with a stolen base and fielder's choice. He showed off better speed than I expected; he will never much of a regular base stealing threat but he's certainly not a base-clogger.

Michael Taylor - The first thing I noticed about Taylor is that he's absolutely jacked, but despite all of his muscle mass, he still runs well--similar to Elijah Dukes. Taylor went 1-4 with a walk and a strikeout. He hit a long fly ball his first time up which brought the left fielder all the way back to the warning track.

Beau Mills - Of all of the players, I was most excited to see Mills who hit a monster shot last time he was in Trenton. It's a shame he wasn't in the Homerun Derby as I believe he would have won easily. Mills ended up going 1-4 with a walk and a strikeout, he was also caught stealing.

Joe Savery - The Southern Division starter matched his counterpart in McAllister giving up 1 hit over 1 inning. Unlike McAllister, Savery flashed a disgusting changeup a few difference times. His commanded appeared to be solid and his fastball looked strong.

Bowie Baysox vs Trenton Thunder: 6/3/09

2009-06-04T19:17:00.007-04:00

On a cloudy Wednesday night, Clyde and I headed over to Waterfront Park to watch the Baltimore's AA affiliate, the Bowie Baysox, take on the Yankees AA affiliate, the Trenton Thunder. Contrary to The Weather Channel's beliefs, the rain held off and we were able to get the entire game in.

For the first time in my 30+ trips to Waterfront Park, the wind was blowing out. If you haven't read our Trenton Thunder write-ups before, you should know that strong winds blowing off the Delaware River usually keep the baseball in the yard. This coupled with rather deep dimensions makes it quite a struggle to hit homeruns.

Bowie:

Mike Costanzo, 3B - The former Phillies prospect had a solid night going 1-4 with a double and a strikeout. He also hit two long fly balls to left field, which may have been homeruns in some stadiums. Unfortunately the 25 year old third baseman will need to make more contact if he wants to see the majors; he struck out 159 times in 483 at-bats last year.

Unfortunately, Costanzo was the only notable player on the Baysox. They only managed 3 hits all night. Aside from Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe who pitched on previous days, Bowie had literally no prospects on their team.

Trenton:

WIlkin De la Rosa, P - This was my third time seeing de la Rosa pitch this season, and it was easily his most impressive start. In 6 innings he let up 2 hits, walked two, and punched out 8 batters, while allowing no runs and picking up the win. He generated a lot of groundballs as evidenced by his 5:3 groundout to airout ratio. There were a few times where he dialed his fastball up into the mid-90's and completely overpowered batters. His breaking ball and changeup both looked sharp as well.

Jesus Montero, C - The 19 year old made his first ever appearance in AA, after annihilating A+. He went 1-4 with a walk and an RBI on the night, singling his second time up, absolutely rocketing a ball between the shortstop and third baseman. Montero made a few nice blocks behind the plate, and played a bunt perfectly, but his throws to second were both slow and inaccurate, at 6'5 there are some concerns whether or not he can stay at catcher down the road. He was stuck out by Robert Valido, a shortstop who pitched an inning for whatever reason, with the bases loaded, other than that he had a great debut, especially when you consider most of his competition is 3 or 4 years older.

Colin Curtis, OF - Curtis who is a fringe prospect, hit a long homerun to right-centerfield his first time up. He went 1-3 with the homerun, RBI, and a strikeout before having to leave the game after being hit by a pitch.

Edwar Gonzalez, OF - He went 2-4 with a triple, 3 RBI, and a run. He also hit a long flyball to right field that would be gone in most ball parks.

Kanekoa Texeira, P - Texeira pitched 3 shutout innings, giving up 1 hit, striking out 2, walking none and getting the save. All of his outs (strikeouts aside) came via the groundball.

Trenton won 8-0

Tommy Hanson Called Up

2009-06-04T14:08:00.010-04:00

Last night Atlanta Braves fans and fantasy baseball owners around the country got their wish, when top prospect Tommy Hanson was finally called up to the majors. Since the Braves do not feel Tom Glavine get the job done, it's finally Hanson's time to make an impact in the major leagues. Everyone was wondering when he would be called up because he has been so dominant in the minor leagues.

2008 A+: 3 - 1/0.90 ERA/0.65 WHIP/40 innings/49 SO/11 BB/11.03 K/9
2008 AA: 8 - 4/3.03 ERA/1.13 WHIP/98 innings/114 SO/41 BB/10.47 K/9
2009 AAA: 3 - 3/1.49 ERA/0.86 WHIP/66.1 innings/ 90 SO/17 BB/ 12.21 K/9

Hanson pitched extremely well in A+ and AA in 2008, but in 2009 he took it to another level. His K/9 and K/BB went up and, his ERA and WHIP dropped dramatically. Moving up to AAA did not slow him down at all, he actually improved, so the Braves are hoping that his next transition goes as smoothly as the one from AA to AAA.

In his prime, Hanson could have as many as four plus pitches in his mid 90's fastball, 12-6 curve, changeup and slider. He only began using a slider midway through last season, but it improved rapidly over the second half and throughout the Arizona Fall League; now it may be his best pitch. With such a vast and advanced repertoire and control that took a giant step forward in 2008, should have less trouble than most young pitchers do as rookies. He doesn't induce a ton of groundballs, but that will play fine in Atlanta.

Hanson should be up for the rest of the year, and there is little doubt that he can succeed against major league hitters. The 22 year old is Atlanta's the future ace and his career begins on Saturday against the Brewers. He has the talent to be a perennial all-star and possibly even more.

Rising Stars - Brett Wallace

2009-06-02T17:54:00.006-04:00

With the 13th overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft, the St Louis Cardinals, feeling the need for an impact bat and heir to Troy Glaus at third base chose 3rd baseman, Brett Wallace out of Arizona State. Going into the draft, Wallace had the reputation of an extremely polished hitter who could move quickly through the system. So far he hasn't disappointed, Posting a line of .282/.376/.426 with 7 home runs and 23 RBI to date, split between AA and AAA.

Wallace has had some problems with strikeouts in the past, but he has strong enough contact skills and plate discipline that his whiffs won't be a problem and may decrease as he becomes more acclimated with pro ball. In his prime he should hit for both excellent power and average; he has an excellent chance to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter with 30-40 home runs and at least 100 RBI.

The 22 year old has struggled mightily with his defense at the hot corner. At some point in his career, he will need to move to first base, which could be tough as it is occupied by arguably the best player in the game in Albert Pujols. He is also a below average runner and may have trouble keeping the agility needed to play third base in the short-term.

None of Wallace's numbers are eye popping, but we have to take into account his success at AAA when most of his peers are still at A+. The Cardinals' current 3rd baseman, Troy Glaus, is still recovering from off season surgery and his replacements have been sub-par to say the least. Wallace may get called up this season if Brian Barden and David Freese, don't shape up. If Brett Wallace produces, Glaus, Freese, and Barden will all be looking for new jobs next winter, and the Arizona State product will have the job locked down for a long time.

Kendry Morales: All-Star?

2009-06-01T19:51:00.007-04:00

After defecting from Cuba in 2005, Kendry Morales looks like he's finally becoming the player everyone thought he would be. The 25 year old is currently on pace for 25 homeruns and 100 RBI, with a little luck he could be on his way to his first all-star game. Here is his line to date:

175 AB / .280/.332/.503 / 8 HR / 30 RBI / 7.9% BB% / .303 BABIP

None of Morales' peripheral stats are way out of line; his .45 BB/K rate is a hair below average but nothing to be too worried about. His .306 BABIP is right in line with the major league average and his .503 SLG shows he's been hitting with some power.

While he's been old for every level, Morales' track record is outstanding. He has never hit below .300 at any minor league level. Morales has also shown solid power as he has hit at least 15 homeruns at every level. His walk rate has been inconsitent, but he has never had contact troubles.

Morales' only noteworthy flaw has been his inconsitency, he goes though tremedous slumps and hot streaks, but the Angels have stuck with him through thick and thin. The season is only 1/4 done, and we still don't know how well he will translate his talent to full major league campaign, but either way Kendry Morales should be an above-average contributer with the potential to be even more if he can improve his consistency.

Zach Duke?!?

2009-05-30T20:28:00.001-04:00

Ten starts into 2009 and Zach Duke is cruisin' . The 26 year old who is 5-4 with a 2.75 ERA, appears poised to make the first all-star game of his career. Yes, that's right, the same Zach Duke who went 18-37 in the years after his magical 2005 season when he burst onto the scene, going 8-2 with a sparkling 1.81 ERA in 14 starts. Here are his '09 numbers to date:

72 IP / 5-4 / 2.75 ERA / 42 SO / 17 BB / 1.11 WHIP / .268 BABIP / 75.9% LOB%

One of the driving forces behind his fantastic ERA has been his K/9 rate. While its still pathetic, it's sitting a 5.3 which is up from his 4.6 career K/9. Duke has kept his walks in line with his career numbers, at around 2.4 per 9 innings. The outlier is his .5 HR/9 rate which will be extremely hard to maintain for an entire season.

Duke has a discouraging batted ball trend that will not bode well with his low HR/9 rate. After inducing 51.1% groundballs in 2006, Duke's GB% has dropped each year and now sits at 45.5% for the '09 campaign. His flyball rate has increased each year from a tidy 26.4% in 2005 up to 35.5% in 2009--and more flyballs means more homeruns.

The bottom line is Duke has some fatal career trends that, with a little more time, will most likely prove to be the undoing to a brilliant first quarter of baseball. When you throw in a .267 BABIP which is nowhere close to his career .324 mark,you can be almost certain that Zach Duke will revert to his former ways, maybe worse.

A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing

2009-05-29T09:00:00.000-04:00

This year there have been many outstanding pitchers and one who is flying under the radar is Randy Wolf. Last night Wolf had another very good outing for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as he picked up the win going 7 innings against the Chicago Cubs allowing one earned run, one walk, and striking out 7. Wolf only allowed 2 extra base hits and only 2 fly ball outs, meaning that the rest of the outs were via groundball or strikeouts, which is a fantastic sign. Going in to last night's game this is what he has done.

2009: 10 GS/62.2 IP/2-1/3.02 ERA/1.12 WHIP/50 Ks/19 BBs

Before last nights game Wolf ranked 10th in the NL in ERA and last night he lowered it even more. He uses big slow curveball, to set up his 90 MPH fastball and vice versa, which leaves batters off balance and leads to more strikeouts. He is an extreme flyball pitcher (45.6%), but that should play fine in the vast outfields of Dodger Stadium. Wolf's true improvement in 2009 has been his control. His BB/9 rate (2.73) is his lowest since 2004 and his K/BB ratio (2.63) is his best since 2002, which is great to see and can point to a possible breakout.

Wolf should certainly break the 10 win mark this year with about 150 strikeouts; and if he can stay healthy, the 32 year old will be extremely valuable in the Dodgers hunt for the playoffs. At this point in his career, he is by no means an ace but, Randy Wolf can go out every five days and give his team an excellent chance to win.

A Healthy Back Means a Better Feliz

2009-05-28T17:34:00.011-04:00

Going into the 2008 season, the Philadelphia Phillies made a very good move in acquiring Pedro Feliz. The Phillies were in desperate need of a third baseman and Pedro fit perfectly. He is a great defensive third baseman, who also was hitting 20 homeruns consistently at the pitcher friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco. Here are his numbers as a Giant, starting in 2004, his first full major league year.

2004: .276/.305/.485/22 HR/72 Runs/84 RBI/33 BB
2005: .250/.295/.422/20 HR/69 Runs/81 RBI/38 BB
2006: .244/.281/.482/22 HR/75 Runs/98 RBI/33 BB
2007: .253/.290/.418/20 HR/61 Runs/72 RBI/29 BB

Feliz has never been one to hit for average but the power has always been there and he has never played half of his games in a hitters park. The Phillies were expecting great defense and good power from him in 2008, but the power was not exactly at the same level as in years past. Here are his 2008 numbers with the Phillies.

2008: .249/.302/.402/14 HR/43 Runs/58 RBI/33 BB

His SLG%, OPS, and homerun totals were his lowest since the 2002 season. The reason his runs and rbis were down were because of where he batted in the lineup. In San Francisco, Feliz batted in either the 3, 4, or 5 spot and was protected by Barry Bonds or driven home because of Bonds.

Another problem in 2008 was his back. Most of the year he had an injured back, but decided to play through it and opted to wait to undergo surgery. Also, Pedro Feliz's BABIP (.258) was his lowest since 2003. Even though his power numbers were down, his back was hurting him throughout the year, and his BABIP was lower than usual, Feliz had his best OBP since 2004, his best BB% (7.2%) ever, and his best BB/K ratio (.61) ever. Those are excellent signs to see in a hitter and now that Pedro had the off season back surgery, he is putting his new plate discipline together with his old power and the results are showing in 2009.

2009: .307/.373/.433/2 HR/19 runs/ 25 RBI/17 BB

Yes, it's still not even half way through the season, but it is already obvious that the back surgery has helped considerably. His BABIP so far is .341, which is well above his career average, so it should come down, but everything so far points to a very good 2009 for Feliz. He should get back to his 20 homeruns due to his healthy back and the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. Also, Pedro is showing off his new plate discipline by having a 10.2 BB% and .89 BB/K ratio, which are his highest percentages by far and if he can keep that up he will exceed the expectations that the Phillies had for him when they signed him after the 2007 season. This is looking like a career year for Pedro Feliz and he will play a big part in the success of the Phillies the rest of the way.

Crawford Running Wild

2009-05-27T15:52:00.007-04:00

In case you haven't noticed, Carl Crawford has gone absolutely crazy on the base paths. Through 47 games, Crawford has a whopping 30 stolen bases. It might be even more remarkable that he hasn't been caught stealing at all. That's right, he's a perfect 30 for 30 on steal attempts so far. The 27 year old is on pace for 101 stolen bases, but is that truly realistic?

2009: .316/.379/.420/1 HR/22 RBI/30 SB/.385 BABIP/0.50 BB/K

Crawford's .385 BABIP will be almost impossible to maintain, it should regress to somewhere around his .333 career BABIP as the season progresses. His batted ball statistics are in line with his career numbers, so it looks like he's simply getting lucky. If his luck turns, Crawford will be on base less which will naturally lead to less steal opportunities.

It's hard to tell when his luck will run out, but there are some peripheral stats that bode well for him. In 2007, Crawford maintained a .375 BABIP for the entire year; if he did it before, why can't he do it again?

Crawford's walk rate is currently the highest of his career at 8.5% which is a significant increase from his 5.1% career rate. His .50 K/BB rate has also increased considerably from his .37 career rate. The overall increase in walks means Crawford is becoming more selective at the plate and not swinging at pitches out of the zone which are harder to turn into hits.

At 27, Carl Crawford is in the prime of his career, he is walking more, and has shown the ability to hold high BABIPs for long periods of time in the past. While I have no doubt his BABIP will regress at least to his .375 2007 mark (and most likely even more), his improved plate discipline should help give him a legitimate shot to steal 100 bases.

Baseball Stalker Fantasy League

2009-05-26T18:36:00.006-04:00

Speedy and I are going to start a mid-season Fantasy Baseball League and we are looking for people who will be active. If you are interested in joining our league, email us or leave a comment. We really want to have a good, competitive, and active league.

Thank you and hope you will join.

Fernando Martinez Called Up

2009-05-26T17:30:00.007-04:00

With the recent placement of Ryan Church on the disabled list, the New York Mets have decided to call up their best hitting prospect, Fernando Martinez. The Mets have moved Fernando quickly through the minor league system, as shown by the fact he is 20 years old and making his MLB debut. He has always been one of the youngest players at every level he has played at and has held his own throughout all of them. This year is no different at AAA.

2009: 42 games/.291 Batting Average/.337 OBP/.552 SLG/.889 OPS/11 BBs/8 Homeruns/28 RBIs/2 SBs

Those are very good numbers, considering he is still only 20 years old. He started off slow in April, but in May he has been on fire. Posting a .337 avg/.378 OBP/.663 SLG/7 homeruns. He also greatly improved his K% and raised his Line Drive %, which are both very good signs.

Fernando should be playing a lot while Church is on the DL and even though he will most likely head back to AAA when Church returns, this is at least getting his "feet wet". This is the beginning of a very bright future for Fernando Martinez, who, if he stays healthy, should be a future All-Star.

A Small Pitcher with Big Numbers

2009-05-25T09:21:00.013-04:00

Baseball America ranked Tim Collins as the 30th best player in Toronto Blue Jays farm system. He has been amazing coming out of the bullpen so far in his minor league career. Here is what he did last year:

2008: 4 - 2/1.98 ERA/.995 WHIP/68.1 Innings Pitched/14 Saves/98 Strikeouts/32 Walks.

Collins went un-drafted coming out of high school, but he did get noticed and eventually signed by Toronto. With those type of numbers you would think someone would have seen this talent and drafted him and he would be higher than 30th on Toronto's prospect list. Well, first of all Tim Collins stands at 5'7 and weighs 155 pounds. Second of all, nobody real knows how or why he is dominating batters. It puzzles a lot of people, but whatever he is doing is certainly working because he is still doing extremely well this year.

2009: 2 - 2/2.62 ERA/1.000 WHIP/24.1 Innings Pitched/43 Strikeouts/10 Walks

So far his ERA and WHIP are higher than last year, but he is still tearing it up. His K/9 this year (16.1) is higher than last year (12.9), which is unbelievable. Also, his K/BB ratio this year (4.30) is higher than last year (3.06). When someone is striking out batters 4 more times than they are walking batters that is outstanding. It will certainly be interesting to see how the rest of this year plays out and how he does at AA, AAA, and hopefully the majors in the future.

Beau Mills - Cleveland's Number 5 Prospect

2009-05-24T01:40:00.003-04:00

Yes, Miguel Cabrera is That Good

2009-05-24T01:32:00.003-04:00

Through 41 games Miguel Cabrera has torn the cover off the ball. He is currently posting a line of .370/.439/.597 with 9 homeruns and 33 RBI. He's shown in the past that he can be a .300 hitter with 30 homeruns, but can he take his production to the next level and truly become a once-in-a-generation type of hitter?

Let's start with the bad news. His ridiculously high '09 batting average is mostly a product of his .387 BABIP which should regress at least to his .352 career mark, maybe lower. That's it for the bad news.

On the sunny side, Cabrera's batting average has been somewhat hindered by a 50% groundball rate, which is almost 10% higher than his career rate. His K/BB rate is the highest of his career at .89 which shows a more mature approach at the plate than in past years. His homerun/flyball rate is right in line with his career numbers at 19.5%. In 2008, he led the American League with 37 homeruns and finished 3rd with 127 RBI despite a rough first-half numbers largely due to a tough adjustment to his new team and league.

Now 26 years old, Cabrera is just entering his prime and superior peripheral stats suggest he can make a serious run at the triple-crown in 2009 and for years afterward.

Wilkin De La Rosa - Yankee Pitching Prospect

2009-05-24T01:08:00.002-04:00

Josh Tomlin - Cleveland Pitching Prospect

2009-05-24T00:56:00.002-04:00

Carlos Santana - Cleveland's Number 1 Prospect

2009-05-22T23:53:00.002-04:00

Akron Aeros vs. Trenton Thunder: 5/19&20/09

2009-05-22T00:27:00.012-04:00

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Clyde and I headed to Waterfront Park to see the Thunder (Yankees AA) take on the prospect-laden Akron Aeros (Indians AA). According to Baseball America, six of Cleveland's top prospects currently reside in Akron, including their #1 prospect, Carlos Santana. Both days were clear and around 60 degrees with mild wind.

Akron:

Nick Weglarz, OF - The Canadian born outfielder went 1-7 with a walk in the series. He swung at the first pitch he saw in four of his at-bats, which is rather odd considering he showed very good plate discipline last year. He didn't strike out but all of his outs were weak infield pop-ups or groundballs.

Beau Mills, 1B - Mills has the reputation of being one of the beat power-hitting prospects in the minors right now. He certainly didn't disappoint when he hit the longest homerun I've ever seen live, well over 400 feet to dead center, against the wind on Wednesday. Overall he went 2-7 with a walk, strikeout, and homerun that still hasn't landed yet.

Carlos Rivero, SS - Rivero was celebrating his 21st birthday on Wednesday, but was quiet throughout the series going 1-7 with 2 walks. He looks like he's still growing into his body at this stage in his career and power should come once that happens.

Carlos Santana, C - The #1 prospect in the Indians organization tore a ball down the left field foul line in his first at-bat driving in the first run of the game. Overall he went 2-8 with a double and 3 RBI. He had no problem hitting from the left or the right side as he blasted hits from both. Even though he only had 2 hits, the ball appeared to jump off his bat, I came into the series somewhat skeptical of him and left a believer. I have little doubt he will be an all-star backstop in short order.

Josh Tomlin, P - The starter for Tuesday's game, Tomlin dominated the Thunder hitters over 6 innings, giving up 7 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, and striking out 8. He mostly used a fastball/12-6 curve combo with the occasional change up mixed in. He kept the ball low and generated a lot of groundballs, especially as he tired and had to go right after hitters. His curveball had a lot of break and he struck out at least 5 of his 8 with it.

Zach Putnam, P - Putnam came in as relief for Tomlin on Tuesday and worked 2 perfect innings while striking out one. The most impressive part was the other 5 out he recorded were all via groundballs. He was easily the best pitcher I saw in the series.

Hector Rondon, P - We got to see Rondon last year at the Futures Game and I wasn't impressed. We saw him again on Wednesday as he went 5 innings, giving up 4 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks while striking out 6. The first thing that stands out is his electric arm, his fastball sat in the low-to-mid-90's, but he didn't use his off speed stuff much. Cleveland tried to move him to relief in order to help them faster, but he struggled out of the bullpen so it looks like he'll remain a starter for now.

Trenton:

Jorge Vazquez, 1B - The Mexican League product has unanimously been Trenton's best hitter thus far. He continued to stay hot, going 3-7 with a homerun and 2 RBI over the series. He lined a few balls right at the outfielders; if he turned on them a little more they would have been easy doubles, maybe triples.

Wilkin De La Rosa, P - One of the Yankees top pitching prospects, De La Rosa went 6.2 innings, giving up 4 hits, 2 runs, and 3 walks while striking out 5 in a solid performance on Tuesday. The only flaws I noticed were poor control, and extreme fly ball tendencies, which will be fine at a pitcher's haven like Trenton but will be a lot more noticeable in the majors. On the bright side, he mixed his pitches well, keeping hitters off balance causing a lot of weak pop-ups and dribbling ground balls.

Not So Fast Mat Gamel...

2009-05-16T00:54:00.007-04:00

Last week, Milwaukee called up their best hitting prospect, Mat Gamel. The 23 year old 3rd baseman asserted himself as one of the best bats in the minor leagues in 2008 posting a line of .329/.396/.538 with 19 homeruns and 97 RBI in 507 at-bats in AA. He has certainly proved he can hit at the minor league level, but how well will his game translate to the majors?

To start, lets revisit his minor league numbers:

2007 - 9 HR 60 RBI .300/.376/.472 .365 BABIP .59 BB/K 466 AB
2008 - 19 HR 97 RBI .329/.396/.538 .392 BABIP .50 BB/K 507 AB
2009 - 8 HR 31 RBI .336/.428/.647 .416 BABIP .62 BB/K 119 AB
*BABIP - Batting Average On Balls In Play (FirstInning.com)

There is no doubt that Gamel dominated the minors over the last three years but the most concerning number is his ridiculously high BABIP. The major league average falls around .300 but some players have higher career BABIPs than others depending on their approach. For example, Ichiro has a .356 career BABIP thanks to his superior contact skills.

Gamel is certainly an excellent hitter, but he is definitly no Ichiro, therefore his BABIPs around .400 will certainly fall at the major league level and that means he could see a serious drop in his batting average.

In order to get on base at his near .400 minor league clip, Gamel will have to change his approach at the plate and walk more. He has never had any serious plate discipline issues as his .50 minor league BB/K rate is right on the edge of what we like to see, but it's certainly not great.

As for his defense, Gamel may be the worst fielding 3rd baseman in the majors right now, he has improved a little since his 53 error 2007 season but a position change in the near future is almost gaurenteed. With Bill Hall on a bit of a hot streak, and playing adequate defense at the hot-corner, Gamel might have trouble getting playing time right away.

On the bright side Gamel is only 23 and his power should carry over from the minors enough that he could hit around 25 homeruns annually in the major leagues. However, he will need to reform his approach and be less agressive against major league pitchers. If he can take more pitches and get on base at a higher clip, I have no doubt Gamel will be an all-star. The problem is his adjustment is a difficult one to make, and until he does we won't see a sparkling .300 average or 25 homeruns from him anytime soon.

Santana's Debut

2009-05-14T22:28:00.007-04:00

Today, Ervin Santana, of the Los Angeles Angels made his 2009 debut against the Boston Red Sox. Considering the circumstances, the Angels should be excited with how his debut went. Santana's line was 5 innings pitched, 3 earned runs, 7 hits, 5 strikeouts, and 3 walks. He did not factor into the decision of the game.

Santana worked himself out of a couple jams but never let the game get out of hand, which was good to see. He loaded the bases in the 4th inning and was able to strike David Ortiz out with his best slider of the afternoon to end the inning. Santana still has to fully get back into game shape (He labored through the 5th inning) and that will happen with more starts. Some of his pitches looked really good, but for the most part they were average and again, that will come back with some more appearances. Overall, not a bad debut for someone who has been shelved for months. Look to see him build on this first start and get back into All-Star form.

Portland Sea Dogs vs. Trenton Thunder: 5/12&13/09

2009-05-14T16:47:00.006-04:00

On Tuesday and Wednesday we went to Waterfront Park to see the Trenton Thunder (Yankees AA affiliate) take on the Portland Sea Dogs (Red Sox AA affiliate). If you are not familiar with Waterfront Park, you should know that while it's one of the nicest atmospheres to watch a ball game, it's deep dimensions and the wind that blows off of the Delaware River makes it almost impossible to hit homeruns. In the 30+ games I've seen there over the last 3 years, I think I've seen 5 homeruns. Here were some highlights from the series...

Trenton:

Alan Horne, SP - Horne was ranked #5 in the Yankees farm system by Baseball America in 2008 before injuring his arm and dropping to #25 in 2009. He only made it through 3 innings due to another arm injury. He cruised through the 1st inning but began wincing soon after that.

Reegie Corona, SS - He walked three times and hit a single and a double in his 8 plate appearances over the two-day span. The 22 year old looked extremely dialed in at the plate, his defense didn't disappoint either as he turned a few tough balls in outs.

Colin Curtis, OF - Curtis fell victim to Trenton's strong winds that knocked two long fly balls down at the warning track. Overall, he was quiet, only going 1-8 in the series.

Jorge Vazquez, 1B - The first thing Clyde and I said to each other was "wow, this guy is enormous!" Vazquez, who came over from the Mexican league, is listed at 225 pounds but looks much closer to 240. Weight aside, he can hit, going 2-8 with 3 RBI in the series, all while making some pretty nice defensive plays at first base for a man that size.

Ryan Pope, SP - The starter for the Wednesday game. Pope pitched an absolute gem, going 7 innings while only allowing one hit, striking out 6, and walking nobody. His arm did not appear to be overpowering but his command of his fastball, curve, and changeup was strong. However he was certainly helped by the wind keeping the balls in the park; on a different night he might have let up 3 or 4 homeruns.

Portland:

Junichi Tazawa, SP - After getting a lot of publicity in spring training, Tazawa has not disappointed so far. He dominated hitters, going 6 innings, striking out 7, walking 1, and scattering 3 hits in one of the best pitching performances I've ever seen live. He had a mid-90's fastball that hitters looked late on all night, and also mixed in a curve ball and splitter - both looked excellent. Every hitter he faced looked over matched at one point or another in their at-bat which showed as he induced a number of weak infield pop-ups and groundballs. The 22 year old held his velocity throughout the game while displaying fantastic command. I would not be surprised if Boston called him up at some point this season.

Lars Anderson, 1B - Anderson, who ranked #16 on our top 100 prospects list this spring has been off to a rough start, only hitting .230 with a few homeruns. Anderson struck out twice and walked 3 times in the first game. He went 1-4 in the second game. Anderson showed a lot of patience at the plate and got unlucky as he lined a few balls right to the defenders. Regardless, he should be an all-star some day.

Argenis Diaz, SS - Certainly known more for his glove than his bat, Diaz struggled mightily at the plate as he went 0-6 with a walk. He didn't strike out at all, but he also didn't hit anything besides weak ground balls. He managed to hit .286 last year split between A+ and AA but had little power. If he can't hit in the majors he will most likely be a fringe utility player. if he does find a way to hit, he could very easily win a gold glove.

Other Notables: Reid Engel (POR) hit the only homerun of the series, which went well over 400 feet...Bubba Bell (POR) made a few brilliant defensive plays in center field...Justin Snyder (TRE) only played on Wednesday but he went 1-1 with 3 walks...Eduadro Nunez (TRE) hit lead-off both days and went 2-9 with 4 strikeouts and a stolen base.

2009 Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

2009-04-07T08:19:00.001-04:00

There was no greater surprise in 2008 than the Tampa Bay Rays, the team who finished with the worst record in baseball in 2007, making it to the World Series. Led by a strong pitching staff and star rookie Evan Longoria, the Rays took the entire league by storm and came up just short, losing to the Phillies.

Projected Lineup:
C - Dioner Navarro
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Akinori Iwamura
SS - Jason Bartlett
3B - Evan Longoria
LF - Carl Crawford
CF - BJ Upton
RF - Matt Joyce
DH - Pat Burrell

Projected Rotation:
#1 - James Shields
#2 - Matt Garza
#3 - Scott Kazmir
#4 - Andy Sonnanstine
#5 - Jeff Niemann

Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Niemann looks to have the job for the time being, but he has been extremely injury prone in the past. With a solid month or two in AAA, Wade Davis could force his way up.

2009 Outlook: The Rays play in baseball's toughest division, so proving that 2008 was not a fluke will be that much harder. BJ Upton's shoulder has healed and Carl Crawford will look to get back on track after injury woes kept him from getting going in 2008. The signing of Pat Burrell was a very good pickup because of Burrell's power and more consistent bat at the DH spot for the Rays.

The rotation will need to be fantastic for them to have any chance to repeat. Luckily, Shields, Kazmir, and Garza provide an excellent backbone. Each should get better in 2009, and that alone may be enough to keep them on top. Also, at some point the young David Price will be called up and will add to the already solid pitching of the Rays. The bullpen was led by Australian sensation Grant Balfour, he too will need to be excellent if they have title hopes in '09.

Projected Finish: 1st place, AL East.

2009 Preview: Boston Red Sox

2009-04-05T21:34:00.000-04:00

In 2008 the Boston Red Sox were American League Wild Card winners and they were one win away from playing the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series. It was a roller coaster year for the Sox from Big Papi's injury, to Dustin Pedroia's MVP year, to Beckett's injury, to the outstanding play of Kevin Youkilis, to a playoff berth, to finally a heart-breaking playoff exit. Also, Dice K and Jon Lester really stepped up for Boston's rotation, as they just kept on winning games for the team. It was an overall good year, with a devastating finish.

Prjoected Lineup:

C - Jason Varitek

1B - Kevin Youkilis

2B - Dustin Pedroia

SS - Jed Lowrie

3B - Mike Lowell

LF - Jason Bay

CF - Jacoby Ellsbury

RF - JD Drew

DH - David Ortiz

Projected Rotation:

#1 - Josh Beckett

#2 - Daisuke Matsuzaka

#3 - Jon Lester

#4 - Tim Wakefield

#5 - Brad Penny

Closer - Jonathon Papelbon

Position Battles:

SS - Throughout the season Lowrie and Julio Lugo should split at short stop and whoever has the hot bat should get more of the playing time. Lowrie should begin the season as the starter.

#5 Starter - Right now Brad Penny looks to have the job won, but that does not mean it will be his all season. The Red Sox have Clay Buchholz and John Smoltz, who they signed in the off season, so either one of them could fill in for Penny if he starts to not pitch well.

2009 Outlook: The Red Sox should fight for another playoff berth in 2009. They return the same offense that they had a year before, which consists of the AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, and Jason Bay who should really power the offense once again. One thing that will make a big impact on Boston is the health of David Ortiz. If he can stay healthy than Boston should have no real offensive problems, but if he gets hurt again than the team will need to do some rotating of players and hope someone steps up, like Drew did in 08.

The pitching staff looks the same as in 2008, with the addition of Brad Penny and Smoltz who look to add to the already good pitching staff. Dice K made some big strides last year and is now one of the premier pitchers in the league and is showing why Boston payed top dollar to sign him. Jon Lester also had a breakout season last year going 16 - 6 and pitching in real big games when Boston needed a win. The big key to the staff is Josh Beckett and his health. If Beckett can stay healthy than this staff can be one of the best in all of baseball, but if gets hurt than either Buchholz or Smoltz will have to step up.

Projected Finish: 2nd Place, AL East

2009 Preview: New York Yankees

2009-04-04T12:00:00.000-04:00

2007 was the start of the Joe Girardi era for the New York Yankees and it did not start off so great. The Yankees finished 3rd in the division and missed the playoffs for the first time in a decade. They were plagued by injuries and poor pitching. On the bright side, Mike Mussina had a brilliant year by winning 20 games for the first time in his career and Alex Rodriguez even though he did not play the whole season still put up great numbers. Outside of those two, everyone else on the team was pretty average and that led to their 89 - 73 record last season.

Projected Lineup:
C - Jorge Posada
1B - Mark Teixera
2B - Robinson Cano
SS - Derek Jeter
3B - Alex Rodriguez
LF - Johnny Damon
CF - Brett Gardner
RF - Xavier Nady
DH - Hideki Matsui

Projected Rotation:
#1 - CC Sabathia
#2 - Chien-Ming Wang
#3 - AJ Burnett
#4 - Andy Pettite
#5 - Joba Chamberlain
Closer - Mariano Rivera

Postion Battles:
CF - Brett Gardner won the spot in spring training but that does not mean that it is his all season. If he starts to falter, then Melky Cabrera will be eager to get in and prove that he is the starting center fielder.

2009 Outlook: This past off season the Yankees did what they do best, which is spend money. They went out and get CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Mark Texiera in hopes of another return to the playoffs and another World Series Championship.

The offense looks as if it will be really good as long as everyone can stay healthy. They have a fairly old lineup and Alex Rodriguez is the first person to go down with an injury. A-Rod's injury should hurt them at the beginning of the season, but when he comes back he will put up the number that he always does. Jorge Posada is healthy and is hoping to improve on his awful 2008.

The pitching on paper looks as if it should be one of the best, but it is definitely the weakness of the Yankees. AJ Burnett is known for not staying healthy and so nobody knows how he will do. CC Sabathia started off really slow in the AL last year with the Cleveland Indians and then turned it on when he moved to the NL. So it should be interesting to see how he does back in the AL, in a very tough AL East. Joba Chamberlain has not proven to be a consistent solid starter yet, but he is still young. This could be the year that he turns it around and becomes the stud starter than everyone is expecting him to be. Finally, Mariano Rivera is old and skills are dimenishing, but he can still get the job done. If he can stay healthy, then the Yankees will be fine in the late innings.

Overall, this team could be really good or they can be an average team, but it really depends on players staying healthy and the consistency of the starting rotation. They will definitely be in the race for a playoff spot, but I do not know if they will actually make it.

Projected Finish: 3rd Place, AL East

Pitching Projections Are Up!

2009-04-03T17:56:00.004-04:00

We finished up our pitching projections today, they can be found in the "Projections" section on the right side of our page. You can also email us for the projections in excel or .pdf format.

Our methodology for the pitching projections was pretty much the same as it was for the hitting projections. The biggest difference is that 2008 is weighted much heavier for the pitchers, due to the higher year-to-year swings in their stats.

2009 Preview: New York Mets

2009-03-30T22:11:00.003-04:00

For the second year in a row the Mets went into the year as the favorite to win the NL East and blew a September lead, causing them to miss the playoffs. The root of their troubles was an awful bullpen which blew a whopping 29 saves in 2008. On the bright side, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Johan Santana continued to be among the best at their respective positions. The Mets also got exceptional contributions from their farm system as David Murphy, Nick Evans, and Fernando Tatis all filled in when Ryan Church went down with injuries.

Projected Lineup:
C - Brian Schneider
1B - Carlos Delgado
2B - Luis Castillo
SS - Jose Reyes
3B - David Wright
LF - Danny Murphy
CF - Carlos Beltran
RF - Ryan Church

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Johan Santana
#2 - Mike Pelfrey
#3 - Oliver Perez
#4 - John Maine
#5 - Livan Hernandez
Closer - Francisco Rodriguez

Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Livan Hernandez will get the first crack at the rotation, but he'll be lucky if he makes it through April. Freddy Garcia and Jon Neise will be next in line to join the rotation.

2009 Outlook: It's going to be an exciting year for the Mets, they're moving into a new stadium, they have an explosive lineup and two big free agent relievers in Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz who should sure up their bullpen. Carlos Delgado is coming off a career year, and at 36 2008 might have been his last great year, nevertheless, he should still be a lock for 25 homeruns and 100 RBI. David Wright is the best third baseman in the NL and Jose Reyes at least a top 3 shortstop--both of them should be great once again. Carlos Beltran has proven himself to be one of the top run producers and most exciting players in baseball today, he will be 32 in April but he definitely has a few great years left.

The rotation has some question marks. Johan Santana is arguably the best starter in all of baseball and a lock for at least 200 innings and about 15 wins. All of the rest of the Mets pitchers have qualities that could make them top 20 starters some day. Mike Pelfrey generates a lot of groundballs and has great stuff, but he has had trouble striking batters out in the big leagues. Oliver Perez can be absolutely dominating at times, but when he's not on his game, he's a disaster, if he ever gets his consistency problems worked out he will be great. John Maine has proved effective, but he is extremely inefficient; most games he struggles to reach the 6th inning, if he continues, he will put a lot of stress on that bullpen. The bullpen will be at least average this year, Putz and K-Rod were two of the best closers in the game over the last couple years, now they should be one of the best pairs of 8th and 9th inning guys in the game.

Projected Finish: 1st place, NL East.

2009 Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

2009-03-29T11:51:00.001-04:00

After a disappointing playoff performance in 2007, the Phillies came into 2008 with optimism. While they had a bit of an up-and-down year, a late September winning streak and another Mets collapse catapulted the Fightin' Phils into the playoffs for the second straight year. Philadelphia cruised through the playoffs and defeated the Tampa Bay Rays for the World Series.

Projected Lineup:
C - Carlos Ruiz
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Jimmy Rollins
3B - Pedro Feliz
LF - Raul Ibanez
CF - Shane Victorino
RF - Jayson Werth

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Cole Hamels
#2 - Brett Myers
#3 - Joe Blanton
#4 - Jamie Moyer
#5 - J.A. Happ
Closer - Brad Lidge

Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Coming into spring training, Manager Charlie Manuel said the battle would be between Happ, Chan Ho Park, Kyle Kendrick, and Carlos Carrasco. Over the last few weeks the Phillies have said that both Kendrick and Carrasco will start 2008 in the minors, leaving just Park and Happ. With set-up man JC Romero suspended for the first 50 games of 2009 for violating the substance abuse policy, Manuel might be tempted to use Happ in Romero's place as a reliever.

2009 Outlook: The Phillies will have one of the most potent offenses in the NL yet again. Raul Ibanez comes of from Seattle to fill the void left by the departure of Pat Burrell. He, Utley, Howard, and Rollins will anchor the lineup. Outfielders Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth have proven to be spark plugs, and should once again use their speed to help get themselves into scoring position.

The rotation has a lot of question marks, Cole Hamels pitched close to 250 innings including the playoffs in 2008; he is having trouble with elbow soreness this spring. Brett Myers has said that he wants to be a closer, he had a terrible first half of last year, but appears to be back on track. Jaime Moyer will be 46 this year, which means there is almost no chance of him coming close to his 3,71 2008 ERA. Blanton has shown flashes of dominance in the past, but his lack of strikeouts coupled with a high walk rate does not bode well for the future. The Phillies had the best bullpen in 2008, and should be among the league leaders again this year, Brad Lidge was a perfect 41 for 41 in save opportunities and it looks like his troubles in Houston are behind him.

Projected Finish: 2nd Place, NL East.

2009 Preview: Atlanta Braves

2009-03-28T20:39:00.002-04:00

The Braves had a rough 2008, injuries to their rotation coupled with offensive struggles made it very tough for them to stay in games, as they ended the year at 72-90. Jeff Francoeur's troubles lead to some concern about his future, it's not too often that a 24 year old's offensive game completely falls apart, however if he can improve his plate discipline he may be in line for a big rebound in '09. Free agent signings Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, and Garret Anderson should help plug some holes.

Projected Lineup:
C - Brian McCann
1B - Casey Kotchman
2B - Kelly Johnson
SS - Yunel Escobar
3B - Chipper Jones
LF - Garret Anderson
CF - Jordan Schafer
RF - Jeff Francoeur

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Derek Lowe
#2 - Javier Vazquez
#3 - Jiar Jurrjens
#4 - Kenshin Kawakami
#5 - Tom Glavine
Closer - Mike Gonzalez

Position Battles:
CF - Three young guns, Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco, and Jordan Schafer will battle it out in spring training. Schafer, a highly touted prospect, has the most upside of the bunch and appears to now have enough polish to be a productive at the major league level--he should come away with the job.

2009 Outlook: If Kotchman can hit for a little more power, and Francoeur can learn how to take a walk, they, and McCann, Jones, and Anderson should prove to be a solid lineup. Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson are one of the best offensive middle infield tandems in the National League and should continue to hit the ball well throughout the year.

Atlanta will feature a completely revamped rotation in 2009, headlined by veterans Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. Kenshin Kawakami comes over from the Japan and should be a durable strike thrower with solid control. Mike Gonzalez should handle the closing duties to start the season, he's had injury troubles in the past and if he ends up on the DL, Peter Moylan or Rafeal Soriano should get the first crack at the ninth inning role.

Projected Finish: 3rd Place, NL East.

2009 Preview: Florida Marlins

2009-03-25T20:19:00.004-04:00

The Marlins were simply a mediocre team overall last year, and the finished with a mediocre record at 84-77. Hanley Ramirez continues to make a great case for the game's most exciting player and Dan Uggla has proven himself as a consistent 30 homerun threat. Josh Johnson made an incredibly quick return from Tommy John Surgery and pitched well during the second half of the year. With lots of talent in the minor leagues, the Marlins should only go up from here.

Projected Lineup:
C - John Baker
1B - Gaby Sanchez
2B - Dan Uggla
SS - Hanley Ramirez
3B - Jorge Cantu
LF - Jeremy Hermida
CF - Cameron Maybin
RF - Cody Ross

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Rickey Nolasco
#2 - Josh Johnson
#3 - Chris Volstad
#4 - Anibal Sanchez
#5 - Andrew Miller
Closer - Matt Lindstrom

Position Battles:
1B/3B - If Gaby Sanchez can prove that he can handle the load at first base, then Jorge Cantu will probably play at third base. Young gun Emilio Bonifacio is also threatening at third base; if Sanchez struggles during spring training, Cantu could move over to first base, which would open up a place for Banifacio to play.

2009 Outlook: Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla will once again lead the offensive charge, if Cody Ross and Gaby Sanchez can continue to develop into everyday players the Marlins should have enough fire power to compete. Top prospect Cameron Maybin should get the bulk of the playing time in centerfield, he will provide power and speed right away, but he will probably struggle to hit for any sort of average.

The pitching will be led by Johnson and Rickey Nolasco, both can be very effective and are definitely among the better starters in the National League. Flame-thrower Matt Lindstrom should be effective out of the 'pen and sophomore Chris Volstad will look to improve upon his performance in 2008.

Projected Finish: 4th Place, NL East.

2009 Preview: Wasington Nationals

2009-03-23T19:49:00.004-04:00

Coming into 2008, everyone expected the Nationals to be pretty bad...and they were as they finished the season with the worst record in MLB at 59-102. Injuries to Ryan Zimmerman, Elijah Dukes, and Lastings Milledge forced the Nats to use fringe players for a large amount of the season. A few weeks ago, word broke out about a scandel involving GM Jim Bowden and illegally signing Dominican prospects. On the bright side, Christian Guzman finally showed what he can do when he's healthy.

Projected Lineup:
C - Jesus Flores
1B - Adam Dunn
2B - Anderson Hernandez
SS - Christian Guzman
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
LF - Josh Willingham
CF - Lastings Milledge
RF - Elijah Dukes

Projected Rotation:
#1 - John Lannan
#2 - Scott Olsen
#3 - Daniel Cabrera
#4 - Jordan Zimmermann
#5 - Shaun Martis
Closer - Joel Hanrahan

Position Battles:
2B - Veteran Ronnie Belliard will fight with Anderson Hernandez for time at second base; it should come down to who had the better spring.

2009 Outlook: The Nationals had a controversial yet productive off-season, the signing of power hitter Adam Dunn should pay immediate dividends. Milledge, Zimmerman, Dukes, and Flores are all another year older and another step closer to becoming productive regulars and all-stars. They will still probably end up near the bottom of the offensive catogories, but that is to be expected from such a young lineup. Most of the hitters will need another year or two to deveolp, but once they blossom there could be a new power in the NL East.

As for the pitchers, Washington can make a very good case for having the absolute worst hurlers in the game. Their rotation will be "anchored" by Scott Olsen, the former Marlin who posted a 4.20 ERA last year and struck out just over 100 batters in 200 innings of work. Daniel Cabrera comes over from Baltimore; he has never posted an ERA less than 4.52 and is notorious for walking as many batters as he strikes out. There are two potential bright spot for the rotation, John Lannan posted a 3.91 ERA in 182 innings last year, while it was probably artificially inflated thanks to a .270 BABIP he is only 24 and expected to improve. Top prospect Jordan Zimmerman has pitched great this spring and profiles to be a #1 or #2 starter once he reaches his prime. The bullpen is also afwul, achored by Saul Rivera and Joel Hanrahan, who are above -average at best.

Projected FInish: 5th Place, NL East.

2009 Preview: Chicago Cubs

2009-03-21T23:54:00.005-04:00

The Cubs looked poised to make a run at their first World Series title in a century in 2008. With Kerry Wood penciled in as the closer, and rookie catcher Geovany Soto showing signs of an offensive breakout, the Cubs appeared well-rounded and ready to dominate the NL Central. At the end of the season the Cubs were firmly entrenched in first place; Soto became a top-5 catcher, Wood became a 40 save closer, and Mark Derosa and Ryan Theriot had career years. After aquiring starter Rich Harden from the A's, Chicago had their sights set on the World Series. But, yet again, they were bounced from the playoffs by the red-hot Dodgers.

Projected Lineup:
C - Geovany Soto
1B - Derrick Lee
2B - Mike Fontenot
SS - Ryan Theriot
3B - Aramis Rameriz
LF - Alfonso Soriano
CF - Kosuke Fukudome
RF - Milton Bradley

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Carlos Zambrano
#2 - Ryan Dempster
#3 - Rich Harden
#4 - Ted Lilly
#5 - Sean Marshall
Closer - Carlos Marmol

Position Battles:
Closer - Carlos Marmol has incredible stuff and a closer mentality, but Kevin Gregg has experience. They both might get a shot during the season, but Marmol should have the job to himself by the all-star break.

2009 Outlook: The Cubs are going to struggle more than people think on offense. Losing Mark DeRosa especially hurts. Don't expect much out of Milton Bradley, he is perpetually injured as a DH, now that he has switched leagues, he's going to have to play outfield which will add stress and cause him to miss even more games. Derek Lee's power has gone down the drain, Ryan theriot's .307 batting average was mostly fueled by a .340 BABIP, Kosuke Fukudome consistently declined each month (.791 OPS pre all-star break, .640 post all-star break), and Fontenot hasn't proved he can hit leftys. Luckily, Soriano, Soto, and Rameriez should be able to shoulder the load.

Chicago's starting pitching could also end up being a question mark. Carlos Zambrano may be declining early due to the high amounts of innings he threw early in his career, once known as a strikeout pitcher, his K/9 now only resides aroung 6.7; as a result his ERA is now just under 4. Rich Harden has proved time and again that he cannot stay healthy for an entire season, and Ted Lilly is durable but he's on the wrong side of 30. Dempster could anchor the rotation if he can continue to throw strikes, he's 31, but 4 years of closing helped keep his pitches down, which could lead to some longevity as a starter. Jeff Samardzija, Marmol and Gregg should give the Cubs a nice bullpen core.

Projected Finish: 1st Place, NL Central.

2009 Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

2009-03-19T16:25:00.007-04:00

2008 was a bit of a disappointment for the Cardinals as they were never really in contention the entire year. Chris Carpenter did not return to previous form and only pitched 15 innings last year. Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Chris Perez all established themselves as quality major-leaguers.

Projected Lineup:
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Skip Schumaker
SS - Khalil Greene
3B - Troy Glaus
LF - Chris Duncan
CF - Rick Ankiel
RF - Ryan Ludwick

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Adam Wainwright
#2 - CHris Carpenter
#3 - Kyle Loshe
#4 - Todd Wellemeyer
#5 - Joel Pineiro
Closer - Jason Motte

Position Battles:
2B - There are questions about Schumaker's defense after converting from the outfield over the winter. If he can't handle it, Tyler Greene should get the first crack at a starting role.

3B - Troy Glaus is expected to miss the first 6-8 weeks of the season, but he should have his job when he returns. David Freese and Joe Mather are the frontrunners to fill in while Glaus is rehabbing. If neither of them can handle it, 2008 draft pick Brett Wallace could even get a chance.

Closer - Tony LaRussa has said that he will probably start the season with a closer by committee system which would include Jason Motte, Chris Perez, and Ryan Franklin. Either Perez or Motte could wrestle the job away by mid-season.

2009 Outlook: St. Louis' offense should have no problem scoring runs thanks to Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick and Troy Glaus. Pujols' elbow still has some question marks surrounding it, but that shouldn't stop him from putting up MVP-like numbers yet again. If Khalil Green can find his 2007 power and make more contact, they should especially tough.

The Cardinals pitching staff is a bit more of a question mark, IF Wainwright and Carpenter can stay healthy for a full year, IF Loshe and Wellemeyer can prove 2008 was not a fluke, IF their closer situation gets worked out then might a a chance to make a playoff run.

Projected Finish: 2nd Place, NL Central.

2009 Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

2009-03-18T17:36:00.000-04:00

The Blue Jays had a very good year in 2008, but the fact that they play in the incredibly tough AL East took away from their good season. Roy Halladay was unbelievable for Toronto by winning 20 games and having a sub 3 ERA. AJ Burnett finally stayed healthy and showed how good he can be by winning 18 games and having 231 strike outs. Also, the baseball world was introduced to 20 year old Travis Snider and he did not disappoint. Snider hit .301 in 78 ABs, had 2 homeruns, 13 RBIs, and 9 runs. He made the most of the short time that he was in the majors. If the Blue Jays were in the NL West they would have won the division with their 86 - 74 record.

Projected Lineup:
C - Rod Barajas
1B - Lyle Overbay
2B - Aaron Hill
SS - John McDonald
3B - Scott Rolen
LF - Adam Lind
CF - Vernon Wells
RF - Alex Rios
DH - Travis Snider

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Roy Halladay
#2 - Jesse Litsch
#3 - David Purcey
#4 - Scott Richmond
#5 - Casey Janssen
Closer - BJ Ryan

2009 Outlook: The Blue Jays lost AJ Burnett in the off-season and that is a big loss for them because when he is healthy he is one of the top pitchers in the league. Roy Halladay should get close to 20 wins again and pitch well, Litsch should get to double digit wins, but nothing special, and David Purcey could get double digit wins as well, but again nothing special. After those three it is really down hill in the pitching department. Scott Richmond and Casey Janssen could get roughed up a lot in 2009 and that is going to hurt Toronto big time. They need as many wins as possible to compete with Tampa, Boston, and New York.

The offense looks as if it should be really good in 2009. Travis Snider will have more experience and only get better as the season goes on. Two big questions that Toronto has are with Alex Rios and Vernon Wells. Can Vernon Wells stay healthy and can Alex Rios make up his mind? Alex Rios either steals a lot of bases and does not hit homeruns or he hits homeruns and does not steal bases. He switched midway through the 2008 season. If Wells can stay healthy and Rios choses what he wants to do, then the offense will be ok, but the pitching will still hurt the team.

Projected Finish: 4th Place, AL East

2009 Preview: Baltimore Orioles

2009-03-14T20:00:00.000-04:00

2008 was a bad year for the Orioles, plain and simple. They lost nearly 100 games, the pitching was awful, and every Sunday was an embarrassment in Baltimore. The only real positive was the offense they created, but even that could not cancel out the terrible pitching. The Orioles look to try and improve on their 68 - 93 record in 2008.

Projected Lineup:
C - Matt Wieters
1B - Aubrey Huff
2B - Brian Roberts
SS - Cesar Izturis
3B - Melvin Mora
LF - Felix Pie
CF - Adam Jones
RF - Nick Markakis
DH - Luke Scott

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Jeremy Guthrie
#2 - Koji Uehara
#3 - Chris Waters
#4 - Rich Hill
#5 - Radhames Liz
Closer - George Sherrill

Position Battles:
#4 and #5 Starters - Mark Hendrickson and Adam Eaton have a chance at the last two spots in the rotation. Whoever has the better spring should get the job.

Closer - George Sherrill struggled in the second half of last year and Chris Ray is returning from Tommy John Surgery, so they may split the closer duty throughout the season.

2009 Outlook: People have some reason to be excited in Baltimore, but not because of the performance of the team, but because of one player. Matt Wieters. He is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and he has everyone talking. Wieters is a switching hitting catcher who can hit for power and average and play his position well. Other than Wieters the team does not really look any better than it did last year. Jeremy Guthrie is their number one starter, so that shows you that the pitching staff is still not very good and the offense consists of either old players (on the decline) or young players that have not panned out. So it does not really look like another good season for the Orioles, especially playing in the AL East.

Projected Finish: 5th Place, AL East

2009 Preview: Minnesota Twins

2009-03-12T17:13:00.004-04:00

2008 was a heartbreaking year for the Twins, losing the AL Central by one game. The team was led by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau who both had excellent years offensively. The rest of the team did not flash big numbers, but they were good enough to keep them in contention for the playoffs all the way to the last game of the year. The pitching staff of the Twins was very underrated and had 4 starters win at least11 games (Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, and Glen Perkins). Solid pitching combined with the excellence of Morneau and Mauer led Minnesota to their 88 - 74 record and 2nd place in the AL Central.

Projected Lineup:
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Alexi Casilla
SS - Nick Punto
3B - Joe Crede
LF - Delmon Young
CF - Carlos Gomez
RF - Denard Span
DH - Jason Kubel

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Scott Baker
#2 - Francisco Liriano
#3 - Kevin Slowey
#4 - Nick Blackburn
#5 - Glen Perkins
Closer - Joe Nathan

Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Phillip Humber will challenge for a spot in the rotation this spring, but most likely he will stick to the bullpen and Perkins will be in the 5 spot.

2009 Outlook: Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau should continue their outstanding play in 2009 and lead the team in offense, but they will not be alone. The Twins outfield is very young and has a lot of potential. Carlos Gomez is a speedy center fielder who will steal a lot of bases and should score a lot of runs at the top of the lineup. Delmon Young was a highly touted prospect with Tampa Bay and now he is with the Twins and we are still waiting for his big breakout, which I would not be surprised if that happened this year. He should hit for good average, steal bases, and hit for power and hopefully this is the year that it happens because this kid has a world of talent. Denard Span finally got his chance to play in 2008 and he will look to continue to build on the success that he had. Overall, the offense could be a force to reckon with next year.

The pitching could be even better in 2009 than it was in 2008. The Twins will return all their starters and if Fransisco Liriano can stay healthy, then he should make that rotation even better. The whole group is very underrated, but they get the job done by keeping the team in games. I believe each starter will improve on their win total from the previous year.

Projected Finish: 1st Place, AL Central

2009 Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

2009-03-11T21:55:00.005-04:00

There was a lot of optimism in Milwaukee heading into 2008, Prince Fielder was coming off of a 50 homerun campaign, Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Braun had burst onto the scene and looked like future superstars, and the rest of the lineup, especially JJ Hardy and Corey Hart had surprising years. Gallardo tore his ACL in spring training, and Fielder struggled mightily over the first two months of the season, but thanks to fantastic performances by Braun, Hart, and Ben Sheets, the Brewers remained in contention. After trading for all-star CC Sabathia, the Brewers blossomed; Sabathia pitched 7 complete games and led Milwaukee to it's first playoff appearance since 1983.

Projected Lineup:
C - Jason Kendall
1B - Prince Fielder
2B - Rickie Weeks
3B - Bill Hall
SS - JJ Hardy
LF - Ryan Braun
CF - Mike Cameron
RF - Corey Hart

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Yovani Gallardo
#2 - Dave Bush
#3 - Manny Parra
#4 - Braden Looper
#5 - Jeff Suppan
Closer - Trevor Hoffman

Position Battles:
Middle Infield - Alcides Escobar is ready for the major's defensively, and should be a solid offensive producer right from the get-go. He is currently blocked by Hardy; there are rumors that either Hardy or Rickie Weeks could be traded to open up space for Escobar. If Weeks is traded, Hardy will move over to second base.

3B - After a fantastic season, Mat Gamel is now breathing down Bill Hall's neck. Gamel is not ready to play full-time and is a butcher at third base, but Hall has steadily regressed from his 30 homer campaign a few years ago, he is now a border-line player and a change of scenery could do him some good.

2009 Outlook: Milwaukee's rotation took a major hit when they lost both Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia, who are without question two of the best starting pitchers in the game today. The Brewers made no impact signings to fill their void in the rotation, as a result they will have trouble staying in games when their offense doesn't produce.

Milwaukee's lineup is certainly potent, led by Braun and Fielder, they should be one of the best in the big leagues. The additions of Escobar and Gamel will help, unfortunately it won't be enough to make up for the loss of Sheets and Sabathia.

Projected Finish: 3rd Place, NL Central

2009 Preview: Chicago White Sox

2009-03-10T12:23:00.004-04:00

The 2008 season was a very good one for the Chicago White Sox. They won the division and had a couple of players really break out throughout the season in Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez. Carlos Quentin was having a monster year and was in the AL MVP talk, until he went down with an injury late in the year. Alexei Ramirez was in contention for the AL Rookie of the Year last year with his play at second base and with his amazing bat. Also, the pitching staff stepped it up last year and players like Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle, and John Danks really pitched well for the White Sox. The underrated pitching staff and the break outs of Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez fueled Chicago to an 89 - 74 record and the AL Central title.

Projected Lineup:
C - A.J. Pierzynski
1B - Paul Konerko
2B - Chris Getz
SS - Alexei Ramirez
3B - Dayan Viciedo
LF - Carlos Quentin
CF - Brian Anderson
RF - Jermaine Dye
DH - Jim Thome

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Mark Buehrle
#2 - John Danks
#3 - Gavin Floyd
#4 - Clayton Richard
#5 - Bartolo Colon
Closer - Bobby Jenks

Position Battles:
2B - Right now it looks as though the job is going to go to Gentz, but Brent Lillibridge or Jayson Nix have a chance to win the position in spring training.

3B - Dayan Viciedo is a Cuban rookie trying to make the team at the age of 20 and he is good enough to actually do that. Josh Fields and Brent Lillibridge could take the spot if Chicago feels that Viciedo needs some time in the minors first, but do not expect that to be long.

#5 Starter - If Bartolo Colon is not fully healed from his surgery the obviously he will not be in the #5 spot, but Lance Broadway or Jose Contreras could fill that spot.

2009 Outlook: This team will be very good on offense. Carlos Quentin should have another really good year, Alexei Ramirez should continue to get better and establish himself as one of the best middle infielders in the game, Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye should continue to produce power. Dayan Viciedo can provide a spark for the offense and add more power to the already powerful lineup, which might not be right away, but at some point in the season it will happen.

Age and the pitching staff are the the weaknesses of this team. Thome, Dye, Pierzynski, Dye, Colon, and Contreras are 30+ years old and so that could start to be a problem for the team. Also, the pitching staff could hurt Chicago because Contreras, Colon, Broadway, and Clayton Richard are not the most reliable pitchers right now and they really need to pitch well for this team to make the playoffs this year.

I think that the race for first in the AL Central will be a very close battle, but I do not know if the White Sox have it in them again this year. It will be tight at the end though, I believe that.

Projected Finish: 2nd Place, AL Central

2009 Preview: Cincinnati Reds

2009-03-09T22:04:00.004-04:00

The Reds had a lot to be excited about entering the 2008 season, they had the top minor league prospect in Jay Bruce, and 3 others with all-star potential in Joey Votto, Homer Bailey and Johnny Ceuto. Their Ace, Aaron Harang was coming off a career year and they had brought in Dusty Baker during the off-season to help lead the team back to the play-offs. What followed was a bit of a dissapointment, Bruce and Bailey started back in the minors, Harang couldn't find the strikezone, and Baker conflicted with management over how to handle the team's young players. On the bright side, Edison Volquez became a dominant force in the NL and should stay that way for a long time.

Projected Lineup:
C - Ramon Hernandez
1B - Joey Votto
2B - Brandon Phillips
SS - Alex Gonzalez
3B - Edwin Encarnacion
LF - Chris Dickerson
CF - Willy Taveras
RF - Jay Bruce

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Edison Volquez
#2 - Aaron Harang
#3 - Bronson Arroyo
#4 - Johnny Cueto
#5 - Micah Owings
Closer - Francisco Cordero

Position Battles:
SS - Alex Gonzalez was the starter until he missed all of 2008 with a compression fracture in his knee. If he has setbacks or struggles, both Jeff Keppinger and Jerry Hairston could see playing time.

#5 Starter - Micah Owings is the front-runner for the position, but strong play out of Homer Bailey could send Owings to a relief role or the minor leagues. Bailey, once a top prospect, has struggled over the last two years, but has shown improved velocity and control-- he may be poised for a breakout.

2009 Outlook: The Reds have built a promising young lineup anchored by Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce. They will have no problem scoring runs, and Veteran Ramon Hernandez will give them a viable catching option for the first time in a few years.

Cincinnati's rotation had a bit of a roller coaster ride in 2008, they saw the emergence of Edison Volquez as one of the NL's top pitchers, but Aaron Harang regressed badly; Johnny Ceuto was inconsistent all season and should straighten out now that he has a year of experience under his belt. Their bullpen is a different story, outside of Francisco Cordero the Reds don't have a solid relief pitcher. A bullpen anchored by David Weathers won't get you very far these days.

Projected Finish: 4th Place, NL Central

2009 Preview: Cleveland Indians

2009-03-08T16:47:00.003-04:00

In 2008 injuries plagued the Cleveland Indians. Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, who are a huge part of the Cleveland offense, had awful years and ended up being sidelined for the rest of the year due to injuries. Also, Fausto Carmona's season was thrown off by a hip injury that really affected his pitching. Even though those three did not have the best years, they were saved by Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore who had fantastic seasons and were the real keys to the Indians going 81 - 81 last year (when it could have been a lot worst).

Projected Lineup:

C - Victor Martinez

1B - Ryan Garko

2B - Asdrubal Cabrera

SS - Jhonny Peralta

3B - Mark DeRosa

LF - Ben Francisco

CF - Grady Sizemore

RF - Shin-Soo Choo

DH - Travis Hafner

Projected Rotation:

#1 - Cliff Lee

#2 - Fausto Carmona

#3 - Carl Pavano

#4 - Jeremy Sowers

#5 - Anthony Reyes

Position Battles:

C - Victor Martinez was not completely healthy last year, so if that is the case again then Kelly Shoppach will take his place. Also, due to what happened last year with Martinez's health, the Indians will give him less starts at the catcher position and give him some random starts at DH and 1B to try and keep him as healthy as possible. So Kelly Shoppach will get more starts at catcher than a normal back-up catcher would.

#3-#5 Starters - Jeremy Sowers did not have a good year last year, so he is on thin ice this coming season. The fact he is a left-handed pitcher helps him because the rest of the rotation is righties, but he really needs to step it up if he wants to keep his spot in the rotation. Also, Anthony Reyes was not able to finish the season last year due to injury, so that is something to watch out for this year.

2009 Outlook: The Cleveland Indians went 81 - 81 with many injuries to their team, so if they can stay healthy in 2009 the team will be much improved. Sizemore will be the anchor of the offense once again and should put up incredible numbers, while Cliff Lee will lead the pitching staff. If Fausto Carmona can stay healthy, then he will make a good number 2 starter and really help that staff because if the team has one weakness, it is the bottom of the rotation. Also, if Kerry Wood can stay healthy and be the closer all year, then that pick up in the off-season would end up being very beneficial, because Kerry Wood has shown he can be a very good closer. I think this team has the players to be an above .500 team, but I think they are just missing a couple pieces to be a sure playoff team.

Predicted Finish: 3rd Place, AL Central

Top 100 Prospects: 9-1

2009-03-07T01:29:00.014-05:00

#9 Trevor Cahill, P, OAK - The 20 year old really blossomed in 2008, going 11-5 with a 2.61 ERA and 9.8 K/9 in 134 innings. Cahill is special because he mixes strikeouts with a ridiculous 60% groundball rate; this means that he gives up very few hard hit balls. He has a mid-90's 4-seam fastball and a sinking 2-seam fastball that sits around 90 mph; he couples his fastballs with a hard curveball that rates as a plus pitch. Cahill and Brett Anderson could both get shots are Oakland's rotation in 2009, look for him by mid-season.

#8 Rick Porcello. P, DET - Only he and Tim Alderson of the Giants pitched in A+ after being drafted out of high school in 2007. The 19 year old profiled as a strikeout pitcher but caused some concern when only posted a 5.2 K/9 rate. It turns out Porcello totally changed his approach; instead of striking batters out, he began throwing more 2-seam fastballs, which lead to a whopping 65% groundball rate. Make no mistake, Porcello still has a mid-90's fastball and a sharp slider, those should help him rack up more strikeouts as he develops. There is talk that Porcello could win a rotation spot with Detriot this year, that would be a mistake, he will most likely split 2009 between AA and AAA which will put him in excellent position to win a 2010 rotation spot.

#7 Dayan Viciedo, 3B, CHW - After defecting from Cuba and receiving Dominican citizenship in 2007, Viciedo signed with the White Sox in December of 2008. Chicago has said that the 19 year old will get a chance to compete for the big-league third base job in spring training. Viciedo should hit for both power and average, with good plate discipline; he came to America weighing about 260 pounds so he will have to slim down if he truly wants to win the White Sox third base job. The bottom line is 19 year olds who can hit for both power and average while competing for a major league job are few and far between, he should reach Chicago by mid-season at the latest.

#6 Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC - Unfortunately his shortstop days are over, but his bat is good enough to play anywhere on the diamond. In 2008, the 20 year old compiled a line of .272/.337/.468 with 22 homeruns in 496 A- at-bats. While his batting average is not overly impressive, Moustakas got off to a poor start batting around .200 over the first month of the season. When he reaches the big-leagues Moustakas should hit 30 homeruns annually with an average of at least .280 and solid plate discipline. He will probably split 2009 between A+ and AA, look for him in Kansas City by late-2010.

#5 Colby Rasmus, OF, STL - The 22 year old was expected to get some at-bats with St. Louis last year after a hot spring, but the Cardinals decided to send him to AAA for the first part of 2008. Rasmus struggled mightily for the first two months of the season, hitting just over .200; he rebounded with a great June but hurt his knee in July and missed the rest of the season. Overall, Rasmus compiled a line of .251/.345/.396 with 11 homers and 15 stolen bases in 331 at-bats. Rasmus once again showed solid plate discipline, walking 49 times and striking out 72 times. Ultimately, Rasmus' dreadful 2008 should not be cause for concern, every once in awhile someone has a bad year; he will once again compete for an everyday job in spring training, and should be up by mid-season at the latest.

#4 Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT - Drafted 3rd overall in 2008, Alvarez was at the center of a signing debacle, and thus did not get a chance to play pro ball last year. The former Vanderbilt standout has drawn some comparisons to Albert Pujols in his hitting approach and should hit for both power and average once he gets to the majors. Alvarez will probably need the first few months to get the rust off, as he hasn't played any baseball since last May, but once he does the results should be outstanding. He will probably start 2009 in A+, but he has a chance to move quickly once he gets his polish back; a September call-up in not out of the question.

#3 Travis Snider, OF, TOR - After a solid introductory performance to pro baseball in 2007, Snider flew though A+, AA, and AAA to earn a September call-up with the Blue Jays in 2008. in 484 minor league at-bats, Snider compiled a line of .275/.358/.481 with23 homeruns and 91 RBI. The 21 year old's plate discipline is definitely below average as he struck out 153 times last year and walked only 61 times. Snider has big time power and should be able to hit at least .270--even with poor plate discipline. Right now he is penciled in to be Toronto's starting left fielder, he will probably struggle to make consistent contact in 2009, but should be an all-star down the road.

#2 David Price, P, TB - The #1 selection in the 2007 draft wasted little time in 2008, he breezed through 3 minor league levels and on to a call-up with Tampa, where he got a chance to pitch in the playoffs. During his minor league stint, the 22 year old posted a 2.30 ERA and struck out 109 batters in as many innings (split between A+, AA, and AAA). Price, a 6'6" lefty has a mid 90's fastball, plus slider, and solid change up which he can throw for strikes. He should be Tampa's #4 or #5 starter in 2009 as his minor league days are over.

#1 Matt Wieters, C, BAL - It's not that Wieters is clearly ahead of Price as the #1 prospect--they're both very special talents, its that switch hitting catchers who profile to hit .300 with 30 homeruns, and can play solid defense don't come along that often. Weiters demolished A+ and AA in 2008 compiling a line of .355/.454/.600 with 27 homeruns and 91 RBI in 437 at-bats. It gets better, He walked 82 times while striking out 76 times, and he should be Baltimore's catcher by opening day. Wieters has the potential to end up in the hall of fame one day.

That wraps up our top 100 prospects for 2009, tomorrow we will have a link to our top 100 spreadsheet, thanks for reading.

2009 Preview: Houston Astros

2009-03-07T00:43:00.014-05:00

After a mediocre start to their season, the Astros traded aggressively at the deadline, adding Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins which was apparently enough to boost them into contention. Unfortunately, the late-season push was not enough as they finished just 3.5 games out of the wild card spot with a record of 86-75.

Projected Lineup:
C - J.R. Towles
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Kaz Matsui
SS - Miguel Tejeda
3B - Geoff Blum
LF - Carlos Lee
CF - Michael Bourn
RF - Hunter Pence

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Roy Oswalt
#2 - Wandy Rodriguez
#3 - Brandon Backe
#4 - Mike Hampton
#5 - Brian Moehler
Closer - Jose Valverde

Position Battles:
#5 Starter - Moehler and Russ Ortiz will fight for a rotation spot in spring training; the best of the two will get the first crack at the #5 job, but it's likely that both will get a fair amount of starts.

2009 Outlook: Owner Drayton McClane's "win now" mentality has completely drained Houston's farm system, and it looks like that will finally catch up with them as their #3-5 pitchers are either injury prone or AAA material. Roy Oswalt successfully reinvented himself last year, transitioning from a strikeout pitcher to a groundball pitcher as he can no longer blow fastballs by hitters the way he did 5 years ago. Wandy Rodriguez improved dramatically, but sat out the first half of 2008 with a groin injury, he and Oswalt should prove to be an effective 1-2 combo.

Carlos Lee was on pace for career numbers before injuries got the best of him; he, Lance Berkman, and Hunter Pence will give the Astros a strong heart of the lineup. If Michael Bourn can improve from his abysmal 2008, and J.R. Towles can handle the load at catcher, Houston will have one of the more potent lineups in the National League--too bad their pitching will struggle to keep them in games.

Projected Finish: 5th Place, NL Central

2009 Preview: Detroit Tigers

2009-03-06T18:12:00.011-05:00

The Tigers were supposed to be the team to beat in the AL in 2008; but an all-around slow start, Curtis Granderson's broken finger, and the disappearance of Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman as staff anchors led to a hole from which the team could not rebound; even with a great second half from Miguel Cabrera. Detroit fell well short of expectations last year and finished dead last in the AL Central with a 74 - 88 record.

Projected Lineup:
C - Gerald Laird
1B - Miguel Cabrera
2B - Placido Polanco
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Brandon Inge
LF - Carlos Guillen
CF - Curtis Granderson
RF - Magglio Ordonez
DH - Gary Sheffield

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Justin Verlander
#2 - Armando Galarraga
#3 - Jeremy Bonderman
#4 - Edwin Jackson
#5 - Zach Miner
Closer - Brandon Lyon

Position Battles:
#5 Starter - It will be a battle in spring training between Zach Miner, Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, and maybe even Rick Porcello (doubtful). Whoever has the better spring should get the spot and it appears all these starters (with the likely exception of Porcello) will get starts throughout the season.

Closer - The Tigers have thought of Joel Zumaya as their future closer for a few years now, but poor health has prevented him from reaching their expectations. The closer right now is Lyon, but he by no means has the job locked up; Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, or Freddy Dolsi could all get some opportunities for saves.

2009 Outlook: Detroit is a solid team and the offense looks excellent on paper again, but after their collapse last year, who knows what will happen once the real games get underway. I believe the team will improve upon last year's record because they are too talented to finish last in back-to-back years. Miguel Cabrera caught fire at the end of last season and the Tigers are hoping that fire returns at the beginning of the 2009 season.

The Tigers glaring problem, which is keeping them from being an elite team, is their pitching. Justin Verlander, a Cy Young candidate in years passed, fell apart leaving Detriot with no true "ace" coming into 2009; no guy that is going to go out and put fear in the other team. They have a bunch of average to below-average pitchers, unless Justin Verlander can rebound, they may have one of the worst staffs in the American League. Once they fix their pitching, they will be real contenders at making a run in the playoffs, but I do not think this is their year.

Projected Finish: 4th Place, AL Central

2009 Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

2009-03-05T22:11:00.004-05:00

Let's face it, the past 15 years have been rough for Pirates fans; and 2008 was no exception, Pittsburgh finished dead last in the NL Central compiling a record of 67-95. Last year wasn't all bad for the Pirates though, we saw the breakouts of Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, and Paul Maholm; and hey, at least they didn't lose 100 games.

Projected Lineup:
C - Ryan Doumit
1B - Adam LaRoche
2B - Freddy Sanchez
SS - Jack Wilson
3B - Andy LaRoche
LF - Nyjer Morgan
CF - Nate McLouth
RF - Brandon Moss

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Paul Maholm
#2 - Ian Snell
#3 - Zach Duke
#4 - Tom Gorzelanny
#5 - Ross Ohlendorf
Closer - Matt Capps

Position Battles:
#5 Starter - The winner of this battle will be the lesser of 2 evils at the end of spring training. Neither Ross Ohlendorf or Jeff Karstans should be starting in the majors, but until some much needed depth works its way up from the minor leagues they're Pittsburgh's best options right now.

OF - With hot prospects Andrew McCutchen and Steve Pearce waiting in the minor leagues, and Eric Hinske coming over from Tampa Bay, the Pirates will potentially have 6 major league ready outfielders for 3 jobs by mid-season. When McCutchen is called up he and McLouth will play everyday, but it's still a bit of a mystery how left field will shake out.

2009 Outlook: There's no way around it, it's going to be another rough year in Pittsburgh, but with a new front office regime, now in it's second year, it appears that the tide might be turning. The Pirates farm system is now fairly strong and possesses the marquee prospects in Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, and Jose Tabata. Unfortunately, neither of them will make much of an impact in 2009.

Projected Finish: 6th Place, NL Central

2009 Preview: Kansas City Royals

2009-03-04T13:00:00.004-05:00

The Kansas City Royals were not terrible in 2008 and were actually pretty close to the .500 mark at season's end. The emergence of their new shortstop Mike Aviles provided a much needed lift for the team and helped them stay near the rest of the teams in the division. Gil Meche and Zach Greinke anchored the pitching staff, both having above .500 records, pitching over 200 innings, and striking out 183 batters. Joakim Soria was incredible as their closer last year saving 42 games and posting a 1.60 ERA and a .861 WHIP. Overall, the team had some good players to lead the team to their 75 - 87 finish.

Projected Lineup:
C - Miguel Olivo
1B - Mike Jacobs
2B - Alberto Callaspo
SS - Mike Aviles
3B - Alex Gordon
LF - Jose Guillen
CF - Coco Crisp
RF - David DeJesus
DH - Billy Butler

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Gil Meche
#2 - Zack Greinke
#3 - Brian Bannister
#4 - Kyle Davies
#5 - Luke Hochevar
Closer - Joakim Soria

Position Battles:
1B - Right now the job is Mike Jacobs', but over the years he has struggled against lefties, which possibly opens the door for someone to step in in a platoon role. If Jacobs struggles this year against left hand pitchers, the next guy in line to platoon with Jacobs would be Ryan Shealy.

2B - The battle is between Alberto Callaspo and Willie Bloomquist, whoever plays better in the spring will get the start, but this could switch throughout the season. Either one of them could win this spot.

2009 Outlook: Yes the Kansas City Royals are improving and are not as bad as they used to be, but they are still not great. Jose Guillen, Mike Aviles, Mike Jacobs, and (hopefully) Alex Gordon should anchor the offense, while Zach Greinke and Gil Meche continue to lead the rotation. They do not have real flashy players on the team, but they are going to try and get the job done this year without one. They should finish around .500 again, but I do not think they have enough to make a run at winning the division or making the playoffs.

Projected Finish: 5th Place, AL Central

2009 Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

2009-03-03T19:57:00.003-05:00

In 2008, the Diamondbacks started hot out of the gate, winning 15 out of their first 20 games, powered by hot starts from Justin Upton, Dan Haren and Brandon Webb. It appeared that all of Arizona's young talent was finally ready to contribute at the major league level, but A mid-June slide brought them to .500 where they would hover around for the rest of the season eventually finishing at 82-80.

Projected Lineup:
C - Chris Snyder
1B - Chad Tracey
2B - Felipe Lopez
SS - Stephen Drew
3B - Mark Reynolds
LF - Conor Jackson
CF - Chris Young
RF - Justin Upton

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Brandon Webb
#2 - Dan Haren
#3 - John Garland
#4 - Doug Davis
#5 - Max Scherzer
Closer - Chad Qualls

Position Battles:
2B - Felipe Lopez joins the Diamondbacks from St. Louis where he ended the season with a bang. He and Augie Ojeda will duke it out in spring training.

1B - If Eric Byrnes is healthy, he will occupy one of the outfield spots, moving Conor Jackson back to his natural position at first base, all of that leaves Chad Tracey on the bench.

#5 Starter - The Diamondbacks have said they want to limit young gun Max Scherzer to 170 innings this year so its possible Yusmeiro Petit takes Scherzer's spot in the rotation over different periods throughout the year to take some pressure off the rookie.

2009 Outlook: The Diamondbacks are loaded with young talent and possess possibly the most reliable top 2 starters in the game; all of this adds up to a run at the division title. Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Chris Young could all take huge steps forward which would help provide some offensive firepower to help make up for the departure of Adam Dunn during the off-season.

Projected Finish: 1st place, NL West

Brett Gardner is "Raking It In" This Spring

2009-03-03T16:15:00.018-05:00

Another player who is really turning heads this spring is New York Yankee center fielder Brett Gardner. So far this spring Gardner's line looks like this: .500/.545./1.300, 5-10, 2HRs, 2 doubles, 3 runs, 2RBIs, and 2SBs. Today he added to those numbers while going 3-3 with 1 run and 1 SB.

Brett Gardner was drafted by the Yankees in the 3rd round of the 2005 draft. He then spent 4 years working his way up through the Yankees minor league system.

2005 A-: 282 ABs, .284/.377/.376, 62 runs, 5 HRs, 32 RBIs, 19 SBs

2006 A+/AA: 449 ABs, .298/.395/.370, 87 runs, 35 RBIs, 58 SBs

2007 AA/AAA: 384 ABs, .281/.369/.378, 80 runs, 1 HR, 26 RBIs, 39 SBs

2008 AAA: 341 ABs, .296/.414/.422, 68 runs, 3 HRs, 32 RBIs, 37 SBs

Gardner never had flashy stats in the minors, but he has quietly developed into a very good player. Throughout his minor league career Gardner proved to be a reliable run producer with plus speed, which helped him get called up to the Yankees in 2008. During his 2008 call-up Gardner compiled a line of:.228/.283/.299 with 18 runs, 16 RBIs, and 13 SBs (only caught once in 14 attempts) in 127 at-bats. Not his best at all, but with more playing time the numbers will start improving.

This spring is really helping his case to become the Yankees everyday center fielder, I believe he will beat out Melky Cabrera to win the job by Opening Day. He is going to be a top of the order hitter who will not put up gaudy power numbers, but will hit between .260 - .270, steal more than 30 bases (probably closer to 40 or 50), and score a lot of runs in that tremendous Yankee lineup thanks to his ability to complement his contact skills with solid plate discipline. Brett Gardner is by no means a superstar, but he can be a great compliment to the rest of the team and should hold is own with the Yankees in 2009.

Who is Micah Hoffpauir?

2009-03-02T23:32:00.007-05:00

If you follow the Cubs closely or have looked over the spring training box scores the last few days you have probably asked yourself that very question. Micah Hoffpauir has gotten out to a sizzling start this spring, compiling a line of .368/.429/.737 with 2 homeruns in 19 at-bats so far; of course it's only been 5 games but still...

Selected by the Cubs in the 13th round of the 2002 draft out of Lamar University, Hoffpauir moved steadily up to AA by 2004. Though he was 24 years old, which is considered "old" for AA, Hoffpauir had shown the ability to hit for both power and average in his first two years.

In 2005, Hoffpauir reached AAA and compiled a line of .268/.334/.342 with only 3 homeruns in 392 at-bats and it appeared that the 25 year old could not handle the more advanced AAA pitchers. The next year, the Cubs demoted Hoffpauir back to AA for the first half of 2006. After dominating the inferior pitching, Hoffpauir was once again promoted to AAA where he posted an improved line of .267/.345/.451 with 12 homeruns in 255 at-bats.

Over the last two years, Hoffpauir has adapted to AAA pitching posting a 2007 line of .319/.365/.552 with 16 homeruns in 310 at-bats. Last year Hoffpauir really blossomed, hitting .362/.393/.762 with 25 homeruns and 100 RBI in only 290 at-bats. He was rewarded for his excellent season at AAA with a September call-up from the Cubs, of which he took full advantage hitting .342/.400/.534 in 73 at-bats.

The Cubs signing of Milton Bradley during the off-season shows they don't want to leave a starting role in the hands of someone so unproven. Hoffpauir certainly has Bradley and Kosuke Fukudome ahead of him on the depth chart, but Bradley is extremely injury prone, and Fukudome had a terrible second half last year, so Hoffpauir could find himself getting quite a bit of major league at-bats in 2009. The 28 year old could also end up spelling Derek Lee from time to time in order to help take some of the pressure off of the aging first baseman.

If the stars align, Hoffpauir could fill in for Bradley and Lee enough to get himself 300+ at-bats next year. It's unlikely he will hit for a very high average in the majors as his 2008 stint was aided by a whopping .489 BABIP, but a line of .260/.320/.500 with as many as 20 homeruns appears more and more likely if he is given a chance to play. Look for him to make a larger than expected contribution for Chicago in 2009.

2009 Preview: Los Angeles Angels

2009-03-02T15:00:00.001-05:00

The Los Angeles Angels have won the AL West the last two years and are going for the three peat in 2009. They are talented on both sides of the ball and have a great balance of big named players and role players, who all play a big part in the success of the team. They are a step above everyone else in the division and look to continue their dominance of their division after going 100 - 62 last year (no one else is in the division was .500).

Projected Lineup:
C - Mike Napoli
1B - Kendry Morales
2B - Howie Kendrick
SS - Erick Aybar
3B - Chone Figgins
LF - Bobby Abreu
CF - Torii Hunter
RF - Vladimir Guerrero
DH - Juan Rivera

Projected Rotation:
#1 - John Lackey
#2 - Ervin Santana
#3 - Jered Weaver
#4 - Joe Saunders
#5 - Dustin Moseley
Closer - Brian Fuentes

Position Battles:

2B - Howie Kendrick is the starter and will be as long as he is healthy, but the problem is that he is never healthy. He has hit the DL multiple times the last couple years and if that is the case again this year than Maicer Izturis will take his spot in the lineup.

2009 Outlook:

This off season the Angels added Bobby Abreu, who can hit for power, average, and steal bases. A very good pick up for the team. Also, Francisco Rodriguez signed with the Mets instead of re-signing with the Angels, so the Angels went out and got Brian Fuentes to fill the closer role and he is a great replacement. Most of the team that won 100 games the year before will be returning to defend their AL West title.

From top to bottom this team is very solid and there are not many gaps at all in the lineup. The only real problem that is evident with this team is age. Vlad is not as young as he used to be (33) and it is starting to show, Abreu is 34, Hunter is 33, Juan Rivera is 30, and Figgins is 31. They are extremely talented, but health starts to become an issue. Even with the many aging players on the team, it still looks like a three peat for the Angels is not out of the question.

Projected Finish: 1st Place, AL West

2009 Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers

2009-03-01T16:34:00.007-05:00

After a lackluster start to 2008, the Dodgers turned their season around in the second half of the season with the acquisition of Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake at the trade deadline, winning the dreadful NL West title at only 84-78.

Projected Lineup:
C - Russel Martin
1B - James Loney
2B - Orlando Hudson
SS - Rafael Furcal
3B - Casey Blake
LF - Juan Pierre
CF - Matt Kemp
RF - Andre Ethier

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Chad Billingsley
#2 - Hiroki Kuroda
#3 - Clayton Kershaw
#4 - Randy Wolf
#5 - Jason Schmidt
Closer - Jonathan Broxton

Position Battles:
LF - Since Manny Ramirez has not signed yet, it looks like Juan Pierre is the front runner for the the everyday job. If Ramirez does sign, Pierre be relegated to the 4th outfielder role.

Set-up Man - Former set-up man Jonathan Broxton is now the Dodgers closer, so there will be a battle between Tiawanese fire-baller Hong Chi Kuo and veteran Guillermo Mota.

2009 Outlook: It appears that with or without Manny Rameriez, the Dodgers will finish at least second. If they can find a way to sign him they would be the front runner to win the division. The signing of Orlando Hudson to sure up second base and give them another productive bat will surely pay dividends. Their only question mark is the bullpen, which takes a hit with the loss of Takashi Saito.

Projected Finish: 2nd plance, NL West

Top 100 Prospects: 19-10

2009-02-28T21:13:00.014-05:00

#19 Buster Posey, C, SF - The 5th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Posey only got 37 at-bats split between rookie league and A-. The 22 year old had an esteemed collegiate career at Florida State, where he hit .463 with 26 homeruns last year. Posey has fantastic makeup and catching skills as well as great plate discipline and the ability to hit for a high average. There are some questions about Posey's power because Florida State's home park is extremely hitter friendly and it was hard to get a good read on hard hard he was really hitting the ball. Whether he can hit for power or not, Posey should be a top-10 catcher once he reaches his prime; he will probably start in A- with the ability to move quickly through the system thanks to his polish, he could be the Giants starting catcher by opening day, 2010.

#18 Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT - It's beginning to feel like McCutchen has been around forever but he's still only 22. After reaching AA at age 19, he has moved a little slower than expected through the upper levels of the minors. in 2008, McCutchen reached AAA and posted a respectable line of .283/.372/.398 with 9 homeruns and 34 stolen bases. McCutchen's low slugging pct. is minor cause for concern; another question mark is his base-running ability, while he stole 34 bases, he was caught a whopping 19 times, that number will need to drop significantly if he wants to have major league success. McCutchen will probably spend at least the first have of 2009 in AAA to refine his skills, he should be Pittsburgh's starting center fielder by opening day, 2010.

#17 Chris Tillman, P, BAL - The 20 year old had a breakout season at AA; in 136 innings TIllman posted a 3.16 ERA and 154 strikeouts. While he doesn't have electric stuff, usually working off of a low-90's fastball and solid curveball, Tillman succeeds off pitching smarts and location. He should open 2009 in AAA and we could see him in an Orioles uniform by September if all goes well.

#16 Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS - Anderson had a great 2008 season, splitting time between A+ and AA and posting a line of .317/.417/.517 with 18 homeruns and 80 RBI. The 21 year old also showed great plate discipline walking 75 times while striking out 107 times. At 6'4" and 215 pounds, Anderson probably won't get much bigger, but that's okay considering he already has fantastic power. He'll probably split time between AA and AAA in 2009 and has an outside chance of a September call-up; he should be Boston's full-time first baseman by mid-season, 2010 at the latest.

#15 Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX - The former South Carolina Gamecock slid a bit during the 2008 draft, going at #11 when he had the talent of a top-5 player. A lot of people have touted Smoak as "the surest bet to hit 40 homers" and it appears they could be right. There is no question that Smoak has an impact bat and the ability to hit for both power and a high average with solid plate discipline. He will probably start in A+ and could end up being a September call-up at the end of 2009.

#14 Neftali Feliz, P, TEX - A center-piece of the trade that brought Mark Teixeira to Atlanta, Feliz broke out in 2008, splitting time between A- and AA and posting a 2.69 ERA and striking out 153 batters in 127 innings. Feliz has an electric fastball that sits in the mid-90's and has fantastic movement, a plus power-curveball, and a developing changeup. Feliz could probably compete for a Rangers rotation spot in spring training this year, but since he only has pitched 45 innings above A ball, they will probably send him to AAA for the majority of the year, it's more likely that he could win a major league job in 2010.

#13 Brett Anderson, P, OAK - After coming over from Arizona in the Dan Haren trade, Anderson put it all together in 2008, posting a 3.69 ERA and striking out 118 batters in 105 innings. Most notably, the 20 year old lefty only walked 27 batters all season which was good for a K/BB ratio of about 5 to 1, which is elite. Anderson has a legitimate chance to to make the A's rotation out of spring training and at worst should be starting by the end of the season.

#12 Jason Heyward, OF, ATL - Heyward had a strong season as a 19 year old in A- last year, posting a line of .323/.388/.483 with homeruns and 15 stolen bases in 449 at-bats. He also has strong plate discipline walking 49 times while striking out 74 times. In his prime, Heyward should be a middle of the order hitter who can also steal 10+ bases and hit for both average and power. He will probably split 2009 between A+ and AA, but is still about a year away from making any sort of contribution at the big league level.

#11 Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA - In terms of talent, he could make a strong case for #1, but realistically, Maybin strikes out too much to post elite offensive numbers. In 2008, Maybin posted a sort of bittersweet season at AA, posting a line of .277/.375/.456 with 13 homeruns and 21 stolen bases, but striking out a whopping 124 times in only 390 at-bats. Maybin actually took 60 walks last year, and if he can be a little less aggressive, the 21 year old could be a devastating power/speed combination for years to come. He will probably make the team out of spring training or shortly thereafter but a half-season at AAA to develop his plate discipline a little more certainly wouldn't hurt.

#10 - Tommy Hanson, P, ATL - Hanson has four above-average or better pitches, all of which he can throw for strikes. Last year he broke out posting a 2.41 ERA striking out 163 batters in 138 innings split between A+ and AA. The 22 year old has a mid-90's fastball, a 12-6 curve, and a power slider. Hanson should make the Braves rotation out of spring training and should eventually develop into an ace.

Tune in next Saturday, 3/6, for #9-1

Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America

2009 Preview: Oakland Athletics

2009-02-28T09:17:00.012-05:00

2008 was not a bad year for the Oakland Athletics. The team consisted of a majority of young players, so it was a year of growth throughout the team. They did not have a superstar on the team to lead on the field, so they were pretty average at all phases of the game. One nice story from the Athletics last year was the first half play of Justin Duchscherer. Known to be injured a lot, Duchsherer was finally healthy and he won 10 games in the first half of the season and was named to the All-Star Team. The nice story was ruined when he went down with injury, again, but it was nice to see him healthy and perform well in the first half. So this off-season Billy Beane wanted change up his team and improve on their last year's record of 75-86.

Projected Lineup:
C - Kurt Suzuki
1B - Jason Giambi
2B - Mark Ellis
SS - Bobby Crosby
3B - Eric Chavez
LF - Matt Holliday
CF - Ryan Sweeney
RF - Travis Buck
DH - Jack Cust

Project Rotation:
#1 - Justin Duchscherer
#2 - Dana Eveland
#3 - Sean Gallagher
#4 - Gio Gonzalez
#5 - Dallas Braden
Closer - Joey Devine

Position Battles:

Closer - This is the only major position battle for the Athletics this year and it is between two men, Brad Ziegler and Joey Devine. Both are very good and very qualified, which will make this battle a very good one to watch this spring.

2009 Outlook:

With the addition of Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi, the Athletics definitely improved and I think passed the Texas Rangers in the process. The offense should be the anchor of the team due to the bats of Holliday, Giambi, Cust, and Chavez (if he can stay healthy). The pitching is the weaker part of the team, but it is still not bad. If Duchscherer can stay healthy, he is a very good number one starter. The rest of the rotation really needs to step up if they want to make a serious playoff run this year.

The Athletics have two excellent pitching prospects in Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, who probably will not make the team out of spring training, but will most likely come up at some point in the second half. They could be like David Price (last year) and Joba Chamberlain (two years ago), where they get called up late in the season and make a real impact on the team. I am sure that is something that Oakland would love to see.

Projected Finish: 2nd Place, AL West

2009 Preview: San Francisco Giants

2009-02-27T14:48:00.005-05:00

The Giants suffered a bit of a hangover last year after all of the commotion that followed Barry Bonds and the all-time homerun record in 2007. In 2008, the Bonds-less Giants had an overall disappointing season which can be attributed to their lack of impact bats, now that the homerun king is gone. Last year did have it's bright spots though, Tim Lincecum won the NL Cy Young award and established himself as one of the NL's top pitchers despite being just 24 years old.

Projected Lineup:
C - Bengie Molina
1B - Travis Ishikawa
2B - Emmanuel Burris
SS - Edgar Renteria
3B - Pablo Sandovial
LF - Fred Lewis
CF - Aaron Rowand
RF - Randy Winn

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Tim Lincecum
#2 - Matt Cain
#3 - Randy Johnson
#4 - Jonathan Sanchez
#5 - Barry Zito
Closer - Brian Wilson

Position Battles:
2B - Really the only position up for grabs in spring training; right now Burris is the front runner for the starting job, but Kevin Frandson or Eugenio Velez could win some playing time with steady play in spring training or if Burris falters.

2009 Outlook: The Giants had a fantastic off-season, signing veteran shortstop Edgar Rentaria, future hall-of-famer Randy Johnson, and star set-up man Jeremy Affeldt to help sure up their bullpen. Both Pablo Sandovial and Travis Ishikawa should produce solid numbers from the corner infield positions and should be immediate steps up from Rich Aurellia and Jose Castillo who occupied first and third base respectively in 2008.

With the added offensive talent, and the extremely underrated pitching staff the Giants could be poised to make a run at the playoffs in 2008, though with the lack of a true impact bat in the lineup it seems like 2010 is more reasonable.

Projected Finish: 3rd Place, NL West

2009 Preview: Texas Rangers

2009-02-26T11:53:00.007-05:00

2008 was a successful year for the Texas Rangers. Josh Hamilton dazzled, Ian Kinsler amazed, and Chris Davis emerged. They finished second in the division and took a giant leap toward becoming a contending team. The team should be happy with how the season went, even though they finished 79 – 83.

Projected Lineup:
C – Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B – Chris Davis
2B – Ian Kinsler
SS – Elvis Andrus
3B – Michael Young
LF – David Murhpy
CF – Josh Hamilton
RF – Nelson Cruz
DH – Hank Blalock

Projected Rotation:
#1 – Kevin Millwood
#2 – Vicente Padilla
#3 – Matt Harrison
#4 – Brandon McCarthy
#5 – Jason Jennings
Closer – Frank Francisco

Position Battles:

C – If Jarrod Saltalamacchia does not perform well; the Rangers have two more catchers behind him that will step in for him. I believe that the Rangers won’t hesitate to do so because Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez are solid catchers. For now I believe Salty has the job and he should keep it for the season because he has some real talent.

LF/RF – This is not a real big position battle, but other players (Marlon Byrd, Brandon Boggs, Andruw Jones, and maybe even newly acquired prospect Greg Golson) might be switching into these spots throughout the season. For the most part it should be pretty consistent.

SS/3B – If Elvis Andrus is not playing well and is not ready for the majors then Michael Young will move back to the SS spot and Travis Metcalf will probably move to 3B. This is not a real position battle either, it is just a certain scenario that could happen which would move some players around.

2009 Outlook:
The Rangers have an unbelievable offense and they will probably rank very high in most of the hitting categories. Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, and Chris Davis should have really big years and anchor the offense. The problem that I see with the team is their pitching. Kevin Millwood is their number one starter and yes he is a good pitcher, but he is not a number one starter anymore. They do not have an ace on the staff and that is going to really hurt them. I do not think they have enough pitching to make a real run at the playoffs this year, even though they should have a very potent offense.

Projected Finish: 3rd Place, AL West

2009 Preview: Colorado Rockies

2009-02-25T12:47:00.001-05:00

In 2007, Colorado pulled off an improbable 21 game win streak to catapult themselves into the playoffs and eventually the world series. With high expectations coming into the 2008 season, the fairly young Rockies team was expected to once again compete for a playoff spot; unfortunately injuries and faulty pitching held them back as they finished 74-88.

Projected Lineup:
C - Chris Iannetta
1B - Garett Atkins
2B - Clint Barmes
SS - Troy Tulowitzki
3B - Ian Stewart
LF - Carlos Gonzalez
CF - Ryan Spilborghs
RF - Brad Hawpe

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Aaron Cook
#2 - Ubaldo Jiminez
#3 - Jorge De La Rosa
#4 - Jason Marquis
#5 - Greg Smith
Closer - Huston Street

Position Battles:
LF/CF - Right now, all we are sure of is that Brad Hawpe will play in right field, after that, there are 6 players fighting for the remaining two outfield spots. The current front-runners are Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Spilborghs, who are trailed by Seth Smith, Matt Murton, prospect Dexter Fowler, and maybe even Ian Stewart in order to get his bat in the lineup.

2B - If Ian Stewart can handle second base defensively, he would clear up a lot of the Rockies problems. He has not shown the ability to hold down a prime defensive position in the past and there's little reason to believe he can now. Assuming Stewart can't handle it, Clint Barmes and Jeff Baker would be the next candidates for the job.

1B/3B - I combined these positions because they both have a lot to do with the health of Todd Helton. If Helton comes out of spring training healthy, he will hold down first base, which will keep Garret Atkins at third base and force Ian Stewart to play ethier second base or left field. If Helton is injured, Colorado can move Atkins to first and Stewart to third, which would probably be the best fit for the team.

#5 Starter - Once top prospect Franklin Morales, Jason Hirsh, and Greg Reynolds will all battle with the front-runner, Greg Smith in spring training; any one of these pitchers could realistically end up with the job.

2009 Outlook: Unfortunatly, the Rockies have been unable to part with long time franchise icon Todd Helton, who at this point in his career is only creating a log-jam at first base, which as you can see, has begun to affect the entire team. The Rockies are flooded with uncertainty right now as really only three position players (Tulowitzki, Hawpe, and Iannetta) don't have to wonder where they'll be playing in spring training.

With Jeff Francis needing shoulder surgery that will keep him out of action until September, Colorado's already thin rotation takes another hit. While their future is cloudy, the Rockies do possess a lot of talent and play in the weakest divison in baseball so a playoff run is not completely improbable , but it appears they will struggle in 2009 as the days of Matt Holiday and a healthy Todd Helton are now long gone.

Projected Finish: 4th place, NL West

2009 Preview: Seattle Mariners

2009-02-24T09:15:00.005-05:00

2007 was a good year for the Seattle Marines, but 2008 was not. Injuries and aging players really hurt the Mariners, which lead to their 61–101 record in 2008 (last in the AL West).

Projected Starters:

C – Kenji Johjima
1B – Chris Shelton
2B – Jose Lopez
SS - Yuniesky Betancourt
3B – Adrian Beltre
LF – Endy Chavez
CF - Franklin Gutierrez
RF – Ichiro Suzuki
DH – Ken Griffey Jr.

Projected Rotation:

#1 – Felix Hernandez
#2 – Erik Bedard
#3 – Brandon Marrow
#4 – Jarrod Washburn
#5 – Ryan Rowland-Smith
Closer – Mark Lowe

Position Battles:

C: Kenji Johjima is the starter for now, but Jeff Clement is a highly touted prospect that has great power potential. They should rotate throughout the year, but it is anyone’s spot to take.

LF/CF: The only safe player in the outfield for the Mariners is Ichiro, other than that no one in that outfield should slack. During the season the left and center field spots should be changing until somebody proves that they belong in the starter role.

Closer: Right now the closer spot is not decided and the Mariners will figure that out throughout spring training. It is a battle between Mark Lowe and Miguel Bautista really, but you never know who might step up.

Rotation: Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard are the only guaranteed starters in the rotation. Everyone else will have to compete in spring training for the last spots because it seems like no pitcher in the Mariners organization wants to be in the bullpen, so many players will be vying for those spots.

2009 Outlook: The Seattle Mariners added Ken Griffey Jr. in the off-season to kind of help with the offense, but everyone knows that he is unfortunately prone to injury and he has not been producing like he used to. Their offense just seems average besides Ichiro and Jose Lopez and I do not think they have enough firepower to get the job done. Pitching wise there are a lot of questions and holes in the rotation. Can Felix Hernandez stay healthy and dominate like everyone knows that he can? Which Erik Bedard is going to show up and can he stay healthy? Will the rest of the rotation step up? I think there are still too many problems with this team and the rest of the teams in their division either improved or are already too far ahead for the Mariners to catch up.

Projected Finish: 4^th place, AL West.

2009 Preview: San Deigo Padres

2009-02-23T22:05:00.005-05:00

With spring training now upon us, we have decided to roll out a team by team preview of the 2009 season; Clyde will be doing the American League, I will be doing the National League, Enjoy.

There is no question the Padres are in rebuilding mode, after they missed the 2007 play-offs by one game, San Diego fell to the NL basement in 2008 going 63-99 and finishing last in the division.

Projected Starters:
C - Nick Hundley
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - David Eckstein
SS - Luis Rodriguez
3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF - Chase Headley
CF - Jody Gerut
RF - Brian Giles

Projected Rotation:
#1 - Jake Peavy
#2 - Chris Young
#3 - Cha Seung Baek
#4 - Josh Geer
#5 - Wade LeBlanc
Closer - Heath Bell

Position Battles:
2B: Once hot prospect Matt Antonelli who had an awful year in AAA could still challenge for the staring second base role with a strong spring as there is not much standing in his way.

OF: Scott Hairston who started the 2008 season off with a bang could win a starting roll if any of San Deigo's outfielders fail to impress.

Rotation: San Deigo's #3-5 starters are fringe pitchers who could be replaced sometime throughout the year by Kevin Correia or prospect Will Inman.

2009 Outlook: The Padres lost Trevor Hoffman which will hurt their bullpen, and the back-end of their starting rotation lacks necessary depth. On offense, Adrian Gonzalez is really their only star, the rest of their infield is almost useless, however they do have a somewhat underrated crop of outfielders that could help complement their star first baseman and turn out to be one of the nice surprises in an otherwise dreary 2009. Bottom line: too many holes to fill in order to be competitive this year.

Projected Finish: 5th place, NL West.

Top 100 Prospects: 29-20

2009-02-21T20:43:00.005-05:00

#29 Jake McGee, P, TB - After starting off 2008 with a solid performance in AA, McGee injured his elbow in the second half and needed Tommy John Surgery; as a result he will be out for most of 2009 recovering. The 22 year old went 6-4 with a 3.94 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 77 innings at AA and had a shot to be a September call-up with the Rays. Assuming all goes well with his rehab, McGee will probably pitch in the Arizona Fall League in 2009 to help make up for lost time, he will probably open 2010 in AAA and could reach Tampa by mid-season.

#28 Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC - The #3 overall pick in the 2008 draft, Hosmer has an extremely advanced approach for hitting for a 19 year old. Unlike most high school hitters, Hosmer has excellent plate discipline to go along with his exceptional bat. His power is only average right now but he still has plenty of time to add muscle. Hosmer only got 11 at-bats at rookie league last year and will probably start there in 2009. He is extremely polished for his age and has a chance to move quickly through the system, look for him in a Royals uniform by 2012.

#27 Wade Davis, P, TB - Before Jake McGee's injury, he and Davis were practically identical; McGee was actually considered to have the edge because he was left handed and moved a little quicker through the system. Davis had a fantastic 2008 season, starting in AA where he went 9-6 with a 3.85 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 108 innings, he pitched at AAA during the second half of the season, going 4-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 53 innings. Davis should get a shot to crack the Rays rotation during spring training, at worst he should be up by mid-season.

#26 Tim Beckham, SS, TB - The 1st overall pick in the 2008 draft, Beckham struggled to transition from high school to pro ball, compiling a line of .243/297/.345 with 2 homeruns in 177 at-bats in rookie league. Obviously, it's way too early to write him off just because he had a bad start; in his prime, Beckham should hit around .300 with power and speed, and could be a dynamic lead-off man if he can get on base more. He will probably spend most of 2009 in rookie league, hopefully with better results, and could reach Tampa Bay by 2013.

#25 Jarrod Parker, P, ARI - A first round pick in the 2007 draft, Parker had a brilliant season at A-, going 12-5 with 117 strikeouts in 118 innings and only walking 33 batters. Parker's fastball sits in the mid-90's with good movement, he also has a plus curve and a solid slider which he can throw for strikes. He his currently 6'2, 175 pounds, so he may still be able to add velocity to his pitches; even if he doesn't, Parker should be a #1 starter who could make his major league debut as a September call-up in 2011.

#24 Tim Alderson, P, SF - Fun Fact: Of all of the high school pitchers taken in the 2007 draft, Alderson and Rick Porcello of the Tigers made their full season debuts at A+. Alderson dominated in the California league, the most hitter-friendly of all the minor leagues, at 19 years old, going 13-4 with a 2.79 ERA and 124 strikeouts and only 34 walks in 145 innings AS A 19 YEAR OLD! The 6'6" righty features a low-to-mid-90's fastball with decent life and a plus curveball which he commands excellently. Alderson should start 2009 in AA, and I wouldn't be surprised if he reaches the majors by mid-season, 2010.

#23 Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM - After signing out of the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old, Martinez has become one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory. Martinez reached AA in 2007 as a 19 year old and struggled against the older competition; in 2008 he repeated AA and put together a much stronger season, compiling a line of .284/.338/.429 with 8 homeruns in 385 at-bats. While his line doesn't seem overly impressive, we need to consider two factors, 1.) the Eastern League is murder on hitters 2.) Martinez played part of the year injured. There are a few red flags, Martinez has yet to play a full minor league season and is somewhat reluctant to talk a walk, striking out 73 times while walking only 27. The bottom line is Martinez can flat out hit, if he can stay healthy he will be a force to be reckoned with in the majors. look for him to spend most of 2009 in AAA and reach New York in September.

#22 Madison Bumgarner, P, SF - He and Alderson form a scary tandem of San Francisco pitching prospects and when you couple them with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez, the Giants could have a historic rotation in a few years. Bumgarner had a tremendous season at A- in 2008 going 15-3 with a 1.47 ERA, 154 strikeouts and only 21 walks 135 innings. The 19 year old lefty dominates with a mid 90's fastball that has great life which he can spot anywhere in the strike zone. His slider also has a chance to be a plus pitch but he almost never threw it in high school and needs to work on its consistency. If his secondary offerings continue to develop Bumgarner could blossom into an ace, if not he will be a light-out reliever. Bumgarner might start 2009 in AA, if so he could fight for a rotation spot in 2010.

#21 Matt LaPorta, 1B, CLE - the 23 year old was the talk of the town in the first half of the season hitting 20 homeruns and .288 in 366 at-bats at AA. A mid-season trade moved him to the Eastern League and he only hit .233 with 2 homeruns from that point forward. Nevertheless, a trade to an AL is probably the best thing for LaPorta, who happens to be an abysmal defender, as he can now be Cleveland's DH for the next 20 years. LaPorta could be up by mid-season.

#20 Dexter Fowler, OF, COL - Fowler successfully made the transition from athlete to baseball player during his breakout 2008 season. In 431 AA at-bats, Fowler compiled a line of .335/.431/.515 with 9 homeruns and 20 stolen bases. The 22 year old switch hitter finished off the season with a trip to Beijing for the Olympics and a September Call-up with Colorado, needless to say it was a busy year for him. Fowler showed great plate discipline striking out 89 times and walking 65 times. With Colorado's vacancy at center field, Fowler will get an opportunity to stick with the big league club in spring training and at worst, should be up by mid-season.

Tune in next Saturday, 2/28, for #19-10.

Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America

Top 100 Prospects: 39-30

2009-02-14T23:49:00.010-05:00

#39 Brian Matusz, P, BAL - The lefty out of San Diego University was taken in the first round of the 2008 draft. While he lacks a true plus pitch, Matusz does have four above-average pitches that he can throw with excellent command. He was arguably the best college pitcher in 2008 placing near the top in every major statistical college category. He will probably make his pro debut at A+ and has a chance, due to his polish, to move quickly through Baltimore's system, a 2009 September call-up is not out of the question.

#38 Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX - THe speedy 19 year old held his own in a full season at AA in 2008, compiling a line of .295/.350/.367 with 4 homeruns and 54 stolen bases in 482 at-bats. His plate discipline was definitely sub-par but not horrible (38BB/91K), which is to be expected from someone who is so young for their level. As the .367 SLG shows, Andrus will probably never have much power, but his speed and contact ability along with his solid defense make him a solid bet to be a contributor at the major-league level. Texas' President, Nolan Ryan, said Andrus would have a chance to compete for the big league shortstop job in the spring, if he does not make the team out of spring training, he should be up by mid-season.

#37 Jose Tabata, OF, PIT - In the lower levels of the minor leagues, Tabata showed fantastic power potential, however after 2007 off-season wrist surgery, that power may be on hold for the time being. As a 19 year old in AA, Tabata .272/.339/.368 with 6 homeruns and 18 stolen bases in the offense-depressed Eastern League. Hitters usually find their power again in the second year after wrist surgery, so it's not unlikely that Tabata could flash his former 30+ homerun potential again. He has a chance to start the year in AAA, but a half-season at AA would definitely do him some good, look for him in a Pirates uniform by September, 2009.

#36 Josh VItters, 3B, CHC - The 3rd overall pick in the 2007 draft struggled in A- during the first month of 2008 compiling a line of .322/.357/.495. Even though most of his counterparts had successful seasons at full-season ball, Vitters should still be considered an elite hitting prospect with 30 homerun potential. He will probably split 2009 between A- and A+, though there's a chance he could see some time at AA if he has success. He could be the Cubs starting third-baseman by early 2011.

#35 Alcedes Escobar, SS, MIL - The 21 year old broke out in 2008, proving that he is worthy of elite prospect status. At AA, Escobar posted a line of .328/.363/.434 with 8 homeruns an 34 stolen bases. While he is a fantastic hitter, Escobar is even better at defense, his outstanding play a shortstop has given him a chance to win Milwaukee's starting job in spring training. If all goes well, Escobar could be a very special major leaguer.

#34 Angel Villalona, 1B, SF - As a 17 year old in A-, Villalona proved that he could hold his own in full-season ball. In 464 at-bats, Villalona posted a line of .263/.312/.435 with 17 homeruns and 64 RBI. Villalona's plate discipline is still extremely raw, he only walked 18 times last year, while striking out 118 times. He will have to improve upon those numbers dramatically if he wants any chance of getting to the big leagues. Villalona also needs to watch his weight, he has already played his way off of third base, and if he doesn't stay in shape, even first base could be a challenge. Ultimately, VIllalona has a chance to become a very special hitter, but he still has a long way to go, don''t expect to see him in the majors before late 2012.

#33 Jesus Montero, C, NYY - the 18 year old had a fantastic season at A- in 2008; In 525 at-bats, Montero compiled a line of .325/.376/.491 with 18 homeruns and 87 RBI. Montero could still improve his plate discipline, but that will come in time. Scouts have rated Montero's power an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale; if he can make enough contact, he should have a long, productive career. His defense is horrible, but with the Yankees signing Mark Texieria to a long-term deal, Montero should get every opportunity to succeed as a catcher. Look for him in pin-stripes by late 2011.

#32 Gorden Beckham, SS, CHW - The 2008 college homerun champ was the Whitesox 1st round pick in 2008. While his defense is just average, Beckham's bat, especially for a shortstop will make him extremely valuable in the long run. He should start 2009 in either A- or A+ and could have a chance to fight for the starting shortstop job in spring training of 2010.

#31 Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN - The top first baseman in the 2008 draft combines fantastic plate discipline with tremendous power and has a chance to be an absolute offensive monster when he reaches the big leagues. Alonso should start 2009 at A- and has a chance to move quickly through the system, He could be the Reds starting first baseman by opening day, 2010.

#30 Brett Wallace, 3B, STL - With Troy Glaus' injury, Wallace actually has a chance to be St. Louis' opening day third baseman. He had arguably the best bat in the 2008 draft, and is close to being a major league ready hitter. Wallace's defense at third base is poor but his bat can more than make up for it; he should reach the majors sometime in 2009.

Tune in again next Saturday, 2/21, for # 29-20.

Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America

Contender to Pretender in One Off-Season

2009-02-13T16:07:00.021-05:00

Last year the Milwaukee Brewers won the Wild Card, keeping the New York Mets out of the playoffs. A big reason for their success was the pitching of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. This off-season both players were free agents and if the Brewers were able to get them both or at least one of them, then they would still be in contention for the Division or Wild Card next year. The only problem is... they did not get either!

CC Sabathia signed mega deal with the New York Yankees (7 years, $161 million). With the Brewers last year Sabathia went 11- 2, had a 1.65 ERA, had a 1.003 WHIP, and had 7 complete games. Simply put: CC Sabathia was superb with the Brewers. Now the Brewers do not have that superstar pitcher on their team. That was a huge loss for Milwaukee, but not a surprise in the very least that he did not re-sign them.

Ben Sheets still could re-sign with the Brewers, but the chances of that happening are very slim. Sheets has been known as an injury prone pitcher throughout his career, but the first half of last year Ben Sheets was healthy and dominating. He went 10 - 3, with a 2.83 ERA, and 3 complete games. Not surprisingly, Sheets went down with an elbow injury in the second half of the year which hindered his second half and is keeping Sheets from signing with the Brewers or another team in the off-season. When healthy, Ben Sheets is nothing short of dominant, and his presence and production will certainly be missed by the Brewers. Last week, news came out that Sheet's elbow injury is a lot worse than originally presumed, if a team does sign him, it will most likely be after the all-star break when he is expected to be fully healthy.

Overall, Ben Sheets' excellent first half and CC Sabathia's unbelievable second half, coupled with Milwaukee's solid offense anchored by Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder helped lead them to their first playoff appearance since 1982. This Brewers team will not be the same as last year and probably won't be in contention for a playoff spot due to the lack reliable of pitching that the team possess.

The Brewers did sign Trevor Hoffman, who should help the awful bullpen they have, but he is old and his skills have been declining over the last couple years. Also, he was pitching in Petco Park last year, by far the most extreme pitcher's park in the league, this year he will be pitching in a more hitter friendly park, which should definitely have a negative affect him.

Milwaukee's rotation does have some young talent in Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra who are good pitchers, but not aces. Gallardo is another pitcher who cannot stay healthy and if he is able to play a full season, then he can help the team in a big way, but that does not seem likely. Parra has been the third or fourth starter as of late and has been doing a good job, but can he take a more important role on that staff? We will have to see. A lot of players will need to step up next year for the Brewers to have any chance at playing in October.

Good Offense, Terrible Pitching, Impossible Division

2009-02-12T15:28:00.011-05:00

The Baltimore Orioles are in a tight predicament. They have awful pitching and they are in one of the toughest divisions in all of baseball (AL East). In the off-season their pitching has not improved and their division has only gotten harder, but their offense still remains the bright spot of that sad team.

Brian Roberts is a top 10 second basemen in the league, who hits close to .300, steals bases, and scores runs.

Aubrey Huff hit .304 last year with 32 home runs and 108 RBIs.

Nick Markakis is a young player with a world of talent. He can hit for some power, hit for average, and can score runs.

Melvin Mora may be old, but last year he hit 23 home runs and had 104 RBIs.

Matt Wieters should be called up at some point this year and may even be the opening day starter. He is a switch hitting catcher that can hit for power and average.

Adam Jones is 23 and improving each year and Luke Scott hit 23 home runs last year.

In the off-season the Baltimore Orioles added free-agent Ty Wiggington, who can play many positions and is a solid player. He has never really been given the opportunity to play a full season, so we will have to see if he gets that opportunity with Baltimore.

All together the Orioles were 11th in the entire league in runs scored (782), 13th in total home runs (172), 11th in RBIs (750), and had the 11th best batting average (.267). So in the major hitting categories they ranked in the top half of the entire league. Not bad for a team that had the 5th worst record in the league.

Yes the team is bad. Yes the team has major holes to fill. Yes the team will probably finish in last in the division (again). But they do have a nice core of hitters and we can only wish them the best of luck and not too much pain.

Top 100 Prospects: 49-40

2009-02-08T18:50:00.008-05:00

Sorry, I posted it a few days late. I promise the next one will be on time.

#49 Jeremy Jeffress, P, MIL - After getting suspended for 50 games at the start of the 2008 season for recreational drug use, it's definitely safe to say Jeffress is risky. If he didn't have drug problems the 21 year old would probably rank in the top-10 in terms of pure talent. Jeffress' fastball sits in the upper 90's with relative ease, and he also compliments his heat with a solid curveball and change up. If his secondary pitches don't improve, his fastball could make him a fantastic reliever. If all goes well, Jeffress could be a September call-up this year.

#48 Jhoulys Chacin, P, COL - The the 21 year old had a fantastic season in 2008, split between A- and A+. Chacin won a minor league leading 18 games and posted a sparkling 2.03 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. There really isn't anything too negative to say about Chacin, who posted a 64% groundball rate and struck out almost a batter per inning. The only concerns are that he was a little old for his level in 2008 and when he gets called up, Chacin will have to pitch in Colorado, which will probably kill his numbers. Chacin will probably spend most of 2008 at AA, however if he has another outstanding year the righty could compete for a rotation spot with the Rockies in 2010.

#47 Adrian Cardenas, 2B, OAK - The 21 year old is the highest ranked 2B on our top-100 list, which due to the scarcity of middle infielders who can hit, makes him quite valuable. In 2008, split between A+ and AA, Cardenas complied a line of .297/.366/.400 while hitting 5 homeruns and stealing 17 bases in 417 at-bats. Cardenas probably won't hit for much power, but his encouraging mix of speed and contact still make him valuable. He could be Oakland's starting second baseman by late-2009.

#46 Micheal Inoa, P, OAK - The 6'7 righty was the top international amateur prospect in 2008, signing with the A's for $4.25 million last July. Inoa is only 16 and hasn't yet thrown a professional pitch, but he does possess an enticing three pitch mix. His fastball sits in the low-90's with room for improvement as he fills out; Inoa's changeup and curveball are still developing, but that's to be expected for someone who could be a sophomore in high school. He'll probably spend most of 2009 in extended spring training and then rookie league; He shouldn't be in the majors before 2013.

#45 Lou Marson, C, PHI - Marson made solid strides in 2008, most notably with his plate discipline, increasing his walk rate to a whopping 17.2%, up from 11.4% in 2007. At AA in 2008, the 22 year old posted a line of .314/.433/.416 with 5 homeruns in 322 at-bats. Unfortunately, Marson struggles to hit flyballs, only posting 28% flyball rate last year; also concerning was his BABIP, which was an abnormally high .389, that number will almost certainly go down in the future. Marson has the makings of an impressive defensive catcher with solid offensive skills, if he can hit less groundballs he should be very good. There is a sizable chance that Marson could win the starting catcher job with the Phillies from Carlos Ruiz in spring training; even if he doesn't he should see regular playing time by mid-season.

#44 Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA - I already wrote a separate article on Morrison and Mike Stanton a few weeks ago, the entire thing can be found here. "Though he doesn't have the same kind of power as Stanton, Logan Morrison should be a star in his own right. Morrison hit .332 at A+ last year while striking out 80 times and walking 57 times in 488 at-bats last year in the offense-depressed Florida State League. The first baseman showed decent pop, hitting 13 homeruns and posting a .494 slugging percentage. Florida's first base position is wide open with the departure of Mike Jacobs. Morrison, who should start the season in AA has a chance to be a September call up in 2009 and a starter in 2010."

#43 Jordan Schafer, OF, ATL - Before the 2008 season started, Schafer tested positive for HGH and was suspended 50 games. He started slowly when he returned to AA, and there were concerns that he would lose some of his power; surprisingly his power numbers improved thanks to a fantastic second half of the season. His Isolated power (SLG%-AVG) jumped from .183 in A+, to .202 in AA; Schafer also increased his walk rate improving it to 14.8% from 8.3% in 2007. While his .263/.378/.471 line at AA doesn't look too impressive, the 22 year old greatly improved his underlying skills which should show next year when he gets to play a full season. Schafer will compete for an outfield job in spring training, but he'll probably spend at least the first quarter of 2009 in AAA.

#42 Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL - After a breakout year at AA, where he posted a line of .329/.396/.528 with 19 homeruns in 2008, and a trip to the Futures Game, Gamel ended his fantastic season with a September call-up. While he improved dramatically in 2008, Gamel still has a lot he needs to work on, most notably, his defense at third base is atrocious and he will probably have to move to an outfield corner, the 23 year old could also improve his plate discipline, he struck out 110 times while only walking 55 times. Gamel's BABIP was also through the roof at AA at a whopping .393, even if this number regresses to .350 (still extremely high) his batting average would end up around .280. While he appears to be the next great third baseman, Gamel still has a lot to work on before he can be successful in the majors, he could be up by mid-season.

#41 Phillippe Aumont, P, SEA - The 20 year old had a solid first professional season, going 4-4 with a 2.75 ERA in 55 innings at A- before getting hurt. The 6'7 righty has an incredible sinking fastball that sits in the low 90's, when he straightens it out, he can reach the mid to upper-90's-- this approach allows Aumont to rack up both groundballs and strikeouts. Aumont didn't start pitching until he was 14 so he is still quite raw and struggles with his control, there are also concerns about his elbow injury which could require Tommy John Surgery. Nevertheless, Aumont's upside is incredible, if he can develop secondary offerings, he could be an ace, he could also be Mark Prior, but right now he appears to be worth the risk. Assuming all goes well, the large Canadian should reach Seattle around mid-2011.

#40 Mike Stanton, OF, FLA - As I mentioned earlier with Morrison, I wrote a separate article about these two which can be found here. "Stanton was picked in the 2nd round or the 2007 draft. He possesses serious power which he showed off by hitting 39 homeruns at A- as a 19 year old. While he hit .293, Stanton struck out 153 times in 468 at-bats and will need to cut that number down as he ascends through the minors. The outfielder plays below average defense, however that shouldn't hinder him from reaching the majors. If he can improve his plate discipline, Stanton should be able to move quickly through the minors and become star in Florida's outfield for years to come."

Tune in again next Saturday, February 14th for #39-30.

Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America

Rising Stars - Reese Havens

2009-02-03T23:55:00.005-05:00

With the 22nd pick in the 1st round of the 2008 draft, the New York Mets drafted Reese Havens, a shortstop out of South Carolina. Now you may be asking yourself, "why would the Mets draft a shortstop when they already have Jose Reyes, arguably the second best shortstop in the game?"

Well, the first reason is that Havens, who could probably stick as an average to below-average defensive shortstop, probably projects better as a second baseman. The second reason is that Havens is an extremely gifted, patient hitter.

In his final season with South Carolina, Havens posted a line of .359/.486/.645 and blasted 18 homeruns in just 248 at-bats. Havens also showed excellent patience, walking 58 times while only striking out 44 times. Of course, college numbers are much less dependable than professional numbers, but Havens did play in the SEC, which is one of the toughest conferences in college baseball.

Havens made his professional debut in short-season A ball last year, where he compiled a line of .247/.340/.471 and hit 3 homeruns in 85 at-bats. It's very hard to judge a player with such a small professional sample size, but it appears that Havens has started to make a successful transition form college to pro ball. While Havens' strikeout rate is up, which is expected; he is still walking 11.5% of the time, which is very solid.

If he can continue to improve his offensive game and successfully make the transition from shortstop to second base, Havens could blossom into an elite player at a typically scarce position. He will probably start 2009 in A-, but if he can continue to excel offensively, he should move quickly through the system. Look for Havens to be showing off his effective blend of power and plate discipline in the big leagues by mid-2011.

Watch Out For Chris Dickerson

2009-02-03T16:15:00.006-05:00

A player to watch out for in 2009 is Cincinnati Reds outfielder Chris Dickerson. Due to the trade of Adam Dunn from the Reds in 2008, Dickerson will now compete in Spring Training for a starting spot in the thin Reds’ outfield. Dickerson was drafted in 2003 and slowly worked his way up through the Red’s minor league system and finally made his debut in 2008.

In 2008, Chris Dickerson only had 102 at-bats, but he sure did take full advantage of that opportunity posting a line of .304/.413/.607 with 6 homeruns and 5 stolen bases. His batting average was probably inflated by a .410 BABIP and should regress closer to his minor leage average of about .270. Ultimately, Dickerson probably will not hit for the best average and will strike out a fair amount of times, but if he gets the playing time, he will probably be a 20-20 (20 homeruns and 20 stolen bases) player without a whole lot of difficulty.

Dickerson should start next year with Willy Taveras and Jay Bruce, which will make a very respectable outfield for the Cincinnati Reds in 2009.

Top 100 Prospects: 59-50

2009-01-31T16:32:00.008-05:00

#59 Will Inman, P, SD - The 21 year old had a solid season at AA posting a 3.65 ERA. Inman struck out 9.2 batters per 9 innings last year, however his K/BB rate was only 1.9--he'll need to improve upon that number if he wants to become a successful big league starter. Throughout his minor league career, Inman has been an extreme fly ball pitcher, only recording a 38% groundball rate last year; luckily for him San Deigo's Petco Park is the most pitcher friendly venue in all of baseball, so most of his flyballs will turn into outs instead of homeruns. He will probably contend for one of San Diego's rotation spots in spring training, however half a season at AAA to work on his control wouldn't hurt either.

#58 Austin Jackson, OF, NYY - Jackson's line of .284/.351/.415 at AA last year wasn't all that impressive, but the wind's that come off of the Delaware River behind Trenton's Waterfront Park make homeruns hits near impossible to come by. The 21 year old has fantastic speed and probably the upside of developing into a Curtis Granderson-like player, however it's more likely that Jackson will become a solid regular than an all-star. Jackson needs about half of a season at AAA so his bat can be effectively gauged, but if Nick Swisher or Brett Gardener can stick at centerfield, Jackson could be stuck in the minors for all of 2008.

#57 Gorkys Hernandez, OF, ATL - Blessed with fantastic speed, Hernandez is more of a track star than a baseball player right now. 2007 was a year of improvement for the 21 year old (20 through the entire season), at A+ he posted a line of .261/.343/.382. While it's still not a very impressive line, Hernandez dramatically improved his walk rate and his power numbers. Unfortunatly Hernandez is being held back by a 61% groundball rate, which killed his batting average and hindered his OBP and SLG even though he did improve his peripheral stats. Hernandez still has a long way to go but he's steadily improving and should reach AA in 2009. The Braves are jammed with outfield prospects right now so he does not have a clear path to the majors. If all goes well, he could be wearing a Braves uniform by mid-2010.

#56 Chris Marrero, OF, WAS - The 20 year old was injured for most of 2008 which halted his rapid progress through the Nationals system. In 2007, Marrero hit 23 homeruns and 35 doubles split between A- and A+. Some people are skeptical about his swing, they feel his mechanics will need to be overhauled before he reaches the upper levels of the minors. If he stays healthy and the swing doesn't become a problem, Marrero could be an annual 30 homerun hitter with a .270-.280 average in the majors. He still has a long way to go and the lost year hurts, but he should reach AA next year as a 20 year old which is a good sign in it's self. He could be playing in Washington by mid-2010.

#55 Carlos Santana, C, CLE - Formerly in the Dodgers system, Santana was the centerpiece of the Casey Blake trade. After two lackluster years, Santana broke out in 2008, compiling a line of .326/.431/.568 and even had 10 stolen bases. The switch-hitting catcher also has fantastic plate discipline walking more than he struck out last year. There are a few things to be wary of, Santana was 22 last year in A+, a level mostly populated by 20 and 21 year olds; he also played all season in the California league, the most hitter friendly league in the minors. If he proves that his 2008 season was for real, Santana could be Cleveland's catcher by opening day of 2010.

#54 Carlos Carrasco, P, PHI - After a mediocre season at AA, Carrasco was called up to AAA for the final month of the season where he took off, posting a 1.76 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 36 innings. The 21 year old features a low-90's fastball with decent movement, an average curveball which he struggles to control, and a plus changeup with very good movement. Carrasco's problems have all come from inconsistency--he is prone to extremely hot and cold months where his control varies wildly. If (that's a huge if) he can be more consistent, Carrasco could easily develop into an ace. He will fight for the #5 rotation spot in spring training but a full season at AAA would undoubtedly do him some good.

#53 J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR - The 22 year old split 2008 between A+ and AA posting a line of .298/.322/.527 with 27 homeruns and 105 RBI. The only flaw in Arencibia's game is the disturbing lack of plate discipline; he walked only 18 times last year while striking out 101 times, that number needs to improve before he can become an elite catching prospect. Catchers with that kind of pop don't come along that often so Arencibia could move very quickly through the rest of the minors. Look for him in a Toronto uniform as soon as September, 2009.

#52 Tyler Flowers, C, CHW - Acquired from the Braves during the off-season, Flowers followed a successful season at A+ with a smoking hot stint in the Arizona Fall League hitting .387 with 12 homeruns in just 75 at-bats. Flowers also has outstanding plate discipline, walking 98 times while striking out 102 times. The only knock on Flowers is that he spent all of 2008 at A+ as a 22 year old--however he proved that he was legit, excelling in the AFL against the top prospects in the minor leagues. He still needs more time in the minors, but Tyler Flowers could become the White Sox catcher by mid-2010.

#51 Matt Dominguez, 3B, FLA - The 9th overall pick in the 2007 draft had a solid first full minor league season hitting .296 with 18 homeruns and 70 RBI in only 345 at-bats in A-. His plate discipline could be a little better but is not very concerning for the 19 year old. While he has a very good bat, Dominguez is actually known for his outstanding defense at the hot corner. If he can improve his plate discipline, Dominguez should fly through the minors and should win a few Gold Gloves by the time his career is over. Assuming all goes well, his ETA is late-2011.

#50 Carlos Triunfel, SS/2B, SEA - Seattle's whiz-kid has been in A+ since he was 17 years old. Last year as an 18 year old, Triunfel compiled a line of .284/.332/.401 with 8 homeruns in 479 at-bats. He is already showing solid plate discipline with a .51 K/BB ratio--this number should improve as he gets older. Triunfel will probably outgrow shortstop and have to move to either second or third base down the road. His power should improve as his frame fills out, which should make him a perennial all-star once he reaches the majors. He still has a long way to go, look for him to be in Seattle by late-2011.

Tine in again next Saturday, February 6th, for prospects #49-40.

Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America

Robinson's Rebound

2009-01-29T14:32:00.005-05:00

After an impressive trio of seasons, Robinson Cano struggled mightily in 2008, posting a line of .271/.305/.410, well below his lifetime average of .303/.335/.468. At the beginning of the season the 26 year old was touted as a future batting champ and perennial all-star. So what made Robinson Cano so bad all of the sudden?

The majority of his troubles can be traced to a horrific April, when he hit .151/.211/.236. If we exclude April, Cano's batting average is actually .297. Cano was also plagued by a .286 BABIP which is much lower than his career .323 rate.

Cano's power numbers weren't too bad last year, his 14 homeruns and 35 doubles were down from 19 homeruns and 41 doubles the year before. These numbers are also mostly the result of bad luck and a lower homerun per flyball rate. His 20/47/33 LD/GB/FB rate* has also improved from his 2007 totals of 17/52/31.

Robinson Cano has all of the tools needed to become the all-star batting champion that he was projected to be when he first reached the majors. Last year he suffered from extremely bad luck and one terrible month. Neither should plague him as badly (if at all) in his 2009 campaign. With the acquisitions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, Cano is batting in an absolutely loaded lineup, so a jump in runs and RBI could be on it's way. If all goes well, Cano has an upside of .330/20/100.

*LD/GB/FB Rate is the percentage to linedrives (LD), groundballs (GB), and flyballs (FB) that a batter hits in a season. Linedrives usually correspond with batting average and gap power; flyballs correspond with homeruns; groundballs correspond with little more than outs.

Jose Who?

2009-01-28T12:31:00.009-05:00

Everyone knows about the superstar second basemen in the MLB: Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, etc. One player who does not get the recognition that he deserves is Jose Lopez of the Seattle Mariners. The fact that he plays on a sub par Seattle team is probably a big reason that many people do not know about him. He just turned 24 years old in November and he has been in the league since the age of 20.

Last year, in 159 games, he hit 17 home runs (same as Pedroia), drove in 89 RBIs (more than Pedroia), and had a .297 average (higher than Utley’s). So his stats are up there with the premier second basemen in the league and he should only get better. In 2007, in 149 games, he hit 11 home runs, had 62 RBIs and hit .252; which is an improvement from his 2006 statistics. Each year Lopez is improving his stats and it looks like he will improve on them again in 2008 and truly establish himself as one of the top second basemen in the league.

Fantasy Note: Jose Lopez is a great steal in the later rounds of a fantasy league draft and is only a little drop off from the top second basemen in the league.

Andre Ethier - Hidden Gem

2009-01-27T22:24:00.004-05:00

Before 2008, Andre Ethier was thought of as a run of the mill hitter stuck in the crowded Dodgers outfield. However, last year he separated himself from the rest of the pack posting a line of .305/.375/.510 and hitting 20 homeruns.

Ethier doesn't get a lot of press because no one stat or skill of his especially sticks out. Let's face it, a guy who hits .300 with 20 homers and doesn't steal many bases isn't regarded as a superstar. To really assess Ethier's value we have to dig deeper than his surface stats.

While Ethier doesn't hit gaudy amounts of homeruns, he does have excellent gap power, hitting 38 doubles last year. His walk rate has increased each year that he has been in the league and now sits at a solid 10.1%. Ethier led the league in line drive rate last year, which means that in the future, his batting average could continue to rise--as line drives have the greatest probability of becoming hits, whereas fly balls and grounders are easier for the fielders to make plays on.

Ethier, who will be 27 next year is just reaching his prime and could see a jump across the board in his stats next year. He couples plate discipline with fantastic contact skills and enough power to be an all-star in 2009. If Manny Ramirez does not return, Ethier could get moved to the #5 spot in the order which would mean he will get more at-bats with runners in scoring position, a season line of 25/100/.320 is not out of the question.

What Will Become of Conor Jackson?

2009-01-26T22:17:00.008-05:00

Fun fact: Of all first basemen with at least 500 plate appearances, Conor Jackson finished last in home runs with 12.

Throughout his minor league career, Conor Jackson was known as a hitter with "developing power." A doubles hitter who was eventually supposed to turn his extra-base hits into homeruns. Now 26 years old, and playing in Chase Field, one of the most homerun friendly venues in the major leagues, it seems safe to say that his power is not coming--at least not in the amount that was originally expected from him.

It's no secret that teams expect superior power numbers out of their first baseman-- power numbers that Jackson doesn't have. Even though he can't mash the ball like Ryan Howard, Jackson can still be extremely productive.

While he doesn't have homerun power, Jackson does possess solid gap-power, hitting 31 doubles last year. His line drive rate was the best of his career at 22% (anything above 20% is considered great), he should be able to sustain and maybe even build upon this impressive figure. CoJack also shows fantastic plate discipline, walking as much as he strikes out, and above average speed from a notoriously slow position, stealing 10 bases (second most of all first basemen last year).

As for Jackson's power over the next couple of years, it should hover around 15 homeruns. His flyball rate and homerun per flyball rate dropped a bit last year, they both ended up falling a good amount behind his career norms so a rebound could come next year. Jackson is also entering the prime of his career and with a little luck he could hit as many as 20 homeruns this year.

The bottom line is that Conor Jackson is more valuable than he is perceived to be. His line last year was .300/.376/.446; players who can put up those numbers, from any position, don't grow on trees. Even though he does not fit the heavy, mashing first basemen stereotype, he makes up for his lack of longballs with excellent plate discipline, good speed, and fantastic contact skills. Look for Jackson to take another step forward in 2009.

Carlos Gonzalez, Star or Scrub?

2009-01-25T16:32:00.006-05:00

After breaking out in 2006 at A+, Carlos Gonzalez has endured a steady path through the minors and reached the majors last year, compiling 302 at-bats. Throughout his minor league career, Gonzalez has shown a tantalizing mix of power and speed that made teams drool over his potential.

When he reached Oakland, Gonzalez struggled mightily, compiling a line of .242/.273/.361 hitting 4 homers and 26 RBI. The 23 year old showed absolutely no plate discipline, walking only 13 times while striking out 81.

Over the off-season, Gonzalez was shipped to Colorado as part of the Matt Holliday trade. If there is any environment for Gonzalez to thrive in, Colorado is the one. The Rockies are in the midst of a rebuilding year and currently have an open center field position that will be able to get Gonzalez regular at-bats. In the thin air, he has a chance to put up some gaudy offensive numbers over the next few years if he can harness his talent.

Gonzalez has good speed, and an incredible throwing arm which make him a very good choice to patrol the wide outfields of Coors Field. The Rockies are going to give him every opportunity to succeed next year, and if he can improve his terrible plate discipline (that's a big if) his offensive game should come together nicely.

How Bad is Michael Bourn?

2009-01-25T00:45:00.010-05:00

Michael Bourn finally got a gig as the Astros starting center fielder and stole 41 bases in 477 at-bats last year. How bad could a guy who plays everyday really be?

Pretty bad.

As a prospect, Bourn never hit for much power, posting a .392 slugging pct. in 4 minor league seasons. While he struggled to hit for power, Bourn did have electrifying speed, stealing 164 bases in the minors, and on good base skills, compiling a .377 OBP. When he reached Philadelphia in 2007, it appeared that Bourn could become a successful leadoff man.

After being released by Philadelphia in the off-season, Bourn signed with Houston and won the centerfield job in spring training. Over the 2008 season he produced one of the worst lines in recent memory.

5 HR, 29 RBI, .229/.288/.300

It gets worse, Bourn hit only 10 doubles all year. For comparisons sake, Dustin Pedroia hit 10 doubles the week of April 20th. In fact, the last player to hit 10 or less doubles with at least 450 at-bats is Eric Yielding, who hit 9 in 1990.

Instead of "how bad is Michael Bourn?" maybe a better question would be "how did the Astros let Bourn play all season?"

Seasons like this don't come along all that often because usually if a player is performing as badly as Bourn, they are benched by coaches, or released by general managers, or run out of town by angry mobs.

It appears Michael Bourn does not yet have the skills necessary to become a successful lead-off man in the major leagues. He has tremendous speed, but, as the old adage goes, "you can't steal first base." Look for Bourn to have a much more limited role in the Astros offense (if any) in 2009.

Jo-Jo Reyes: Good, Bad, or Ugly?

2009-01-24T23:46:00.007-05:00

Last year, the Braves, desperate for pitching help, after three of their starters had been placed on the disabled list, called up 23 year old Jo-Jo Reyes to fill in while their pitchers recovered. It proved to be a long season for Reyes, he finished 2008 going 3-11 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, but was he really that bad?

The Good: Before his call-up, Reyes as pitching very well in AAA, posting a 8.8 K/9 and 2.4 K/BB rate which was good for a 2.31 ERA. In the majors, Reyes coupled a 6.2 K/9 rate with a very good 48% groundball rate. He's only 23.

The Bad: Reyes' K/BB rate over his major league stint was just 1.5, that means that he was striking out less batters, and walking more.

The Ugly: His 1.43 HR/9 rate; this coupled with his poor 1.5 K/BB means he was making a lot of mistakes with his pitches.

Though his 2008 was very rough, Reyes has a promising minor league track record, his career minor league rates are 8.8 K/9 2.6 K/BB and .33 HR/9. This means that Reyes will probably revert to these tendencies in the future, and that his ugly HR/9 rate in the majors last year will likely fall to an acceptable level.

Reyes was also plagued by a 68.4 LOB% and a .325 BABIP (for clarifications on these stats check out the statistics primer) which means he was incredibly unlucky. In the future, his luck should improve and these numbers should revert around the league average (72% LOB, .300 BABIP).

Ultimately, there were a bunch of factors that plagued Jo-Jo Reyes' 2008 season, but it looks like most of them were just the results of a small sample size. His underlying skills are very good and his luck should improve next year. Look for Reyes to be much better in 2009.

Top 100 Prospects: 69-60

2009-01-24T22:17:00.005-05:00

#69 Wilmer Flores, SS, NYM - The 17 year old posted a very good line at rookie league hitting 8/41/.310 in 265 at-bats. He only walked 12 times however he struck out just 28, showing that he can put the ball in play. He's currently listed at 6'3, 175 pounds, so it's likely that he will outgrow shortstop and have to move to third base where his bat should play fine. If he improve his plate discipline and stay healthy, Flores should hit for both power and average, but probably not before 2013 at the earliest.

#68 Andrew Lambo, OF, LAD - Lambo posted solid numbers at A- in 2008, hitting 15/79/.288 in 469 at-bats. The 20 year old struck out 109 times while only drawing 41 walks. The Dodgers' outfield is crowded right now so they can afford to be patient with Lambo, who will need a few more years of seasoning in the minors. Look for him in a Dodger uniform by late-2012.

#67 Andrew Brackman, P, NYY - Standing 6'10 Brackman is an imposing force on the mound--when healthy. He was out all of last year, recovering from Tommy John Surgery and should be ready for 2009. Before the injury, Brackman coupled his upper 90's fastball with a plus curveball. This will be his first professional season, and if he pitches well, he could move quickly through the system and reach the Yankees by mid-2010.

#66 Jose Ceda, P, FLA - The 21 year old was dominant as a reliever last year, striking out over 12 batters per 9 innings in AA. He has a fastball that sits in the upper 90's with great movement, and a very good power-slider. Now some struggles as a starter, Ceda should move very quickly through the system and probably make his major league debut y mid-season.

#65 Adam Miller, P. CLE - Miller suffered yet another injury-plagued season, with held him to only 28 innings in AAA last year. He throws both 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs along with a fantastic slider, which could help him become a front-line starter, or if his injury woes continue, a lights-out closer. Expect to see him in Cleveland as soon as mid-season if he can stay healthy.

#64 Kyle Blanks, 1B, SD - Weighing in at almost 300 pounds, the 6'6 Blanks has tons of power. Last year he showed he could hit for average and walk too, posting a line of .325/.404/.514 and belting 20 homeruns in 492 at-bats at AA. He actually stole 5 bases last year, nevertheless he will still need to keep his weight in check as he gets older. He is currently blocked by Adrian Gonzalez at first base, if rumors about a Gonzalez trade come true, Blanks could become San Diego's starting 1st baseman by mid-season.

#63 James McDonald, P, LAD - The converted outfielder, tore up AA last year, striking out almost a batter per nine innings and posting a 3.19 ERA. McDonald finished the year as a reliever for the Dodgers in September and should fight f0r a rotation spot this spring. He has a low 90's fastball, a very good curveball, and an average change-up, all of which he can throw for strikes. He appears to be an extreme flyball pitcher, but that shouldn't be a problem in the wide outfields at Dodger Stadium. He has a very good chance to open 2009 as the Dodgers #5 starter.

#62 Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, KC - The 24 year old destroyed AA and AAA last year posting a combined line of .313/.457/.629. Obviously, he is very old for his levels but he showed incredible plate discipline walking 104 times compared to just 66 strikeouts. He is blocked by Mile Jacobs and Billy Butler at 1B and DH respectively, but if he can put up another dominant half-season in the minors, Kansas City will have no choice but to call him up. Look for him by mid-season if all goes well.

#61 Cedric Hunter, OF, SD - Hunter posted an incredible 92% contact rate last year, one of the highest in the minor leagues. The 20 year old compiled a line of .318/.362/.442 last year in A+. He will never hit for much power, but if he could walk more, Hunter could become a successful leadoff man with the skills to get hit for high average and steal bases. He still has a long way to go, but we could see Hunter in a Padres uniform by late 2011.

#60 Scott Elbert, P, LAD - The 23 year old lefty came back from minor offseason shoulder surgery as a reliever to pitch very well in AA and eventually earn a September call-up. It's unknown if the Dodgers will attempt to make Elbert a starter again, if they do, he could develop into an ace, however there is a big injury risk involved. If the Dodgers keep Elbert as a relief pitcher, he could start the season in their bullpen and eventually become an elite closer.

That concludes #69-60, tune in next Saturday, 1/31, as we count down #59-50.

Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America

Top 100 Prospects: 79-70

2009-01-17T15:40:00.004-05:00

#79 Julio Teheran, P, ATL - The 17 year old only threw 12 innings in rookie league ball last year so at this point there is still a lot unknown about him. Teheran throws in the low 90's with an expected increase in velocity as he fills out. He is currently listed at 6'2 150 pounds, so he has plenty of room to add muscle. He should be back in rookie ball next year and probably won't be playing in Atlanta before 2012.

#78 Brett Cecil, P, TOR - Cecil took a big step forward last year, moving from A+ all the way to AAA before the year was done. The 22 year old struggled a little bit in the 6 games he played in AAA, walking more batters than he had in previous levels. He has a chance to reach the rotation by mid-season if he continues to pitch well.

#77 Cale Iorg, SS, DET - If you don't know his story you may be wondering why we put a 23 year old who hasn't made it past A+ in the top 100. Iorg, who was drafted in the 1st round out after his freshman year of college, proceeded to embark on a mormon mission to Portugal for 2 years. Last year was Iorg's first full pro season, he looked rusty at first but then showed his power/speed potential later on in the season. He could be in Detroit as soon as 2011.

#76 Reid Brignac, SS, TB - After his breakout 2006 season at A+ where he posted a line of 21/83/.326, Brignac slipped a bit over his '07 campaign at AA, showing power (17 homeruns) but not the contact skills (.263 average) that made him a top prospect. In 2008, Brignac posted a line of 9/43/.250 in 386 AAA at-bats. Brignac could probably use another season in the minors and should start 2010 on the Rays.

#75 Henry Rodriguez, P, OAK - The flamethrowing righty's fastball sits in the upper 90's and regularly touches 100. While velocity and movement have never been Rodriguez's problems, he has struggled mightly with control. Oakland has used him as a starter so far, but a move to the bullpen could be in his near future where he could be an electric closer. If he succeeds as a relever, Rodriguez could rech Oakland by mid-season.

#74 Casey Weathers, P, COL - Colorado's 1st round pick in 2007 posessess an upper 90's fastball and a slider that can reach the low-90's. Weathers had a fantastic 2008 season at AA and was poised for a September call-up until he hurt his elbow. Weathers had Tommie John Surgery in early September and should be ready for 2010 where he will fight for a relief role with Colorado.

#73 Chris Carter, OF, OAK - Carter couples power with solid plate discipline. Last year he compiled a line of 39/106/.259 with a .361 OBP. Carter did have 156 strikeouts but he draws enough walks to combat his free swinging. The 21 year old should be up by late 2010.

#72 Freddy Freeman, OF, ATL - The 19 year old broke out last year in A- compiling a line of 18/95/.315 in 489 at-bats. If he can draw more walks, Freeman should devoelp into a regular outfielder in the majors by 2011.

#71 Jake Arrieta, P, BAL - Last year, Arrieta showed the ability to strike batters out while maintaining solid control and limiting homeruns. At 22 Arrieta was a little old for his level but he still shows the potential to be a #2 or #3 starter in the big leagues. Look for him to be entrenched in Baltimore's rotation by opening day of 2010

#70 Ben Revere, OF, MIN - The 20 year old's first full campaign turned out to be a success. Revere showed impressive on-base skills posting a .429 OBP in 339 at-bats. While he will probably never show much power, Revere should be a dynamic lead-off hitter when he reaches Minnesota. Looki for him to be up around mid-2011.

Tune in again next Saturday, January 24th, for #69-60.

Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America

What Happened to Cliff Lee?

2009-01-13T22:29:00.005-05:00

At this point everyone knows the story of Cliff Lee, in 2007 he had injury problems, pitched terribly and was eventually sent down to AAA. In 2008, we saw a new Lee, one we had never seen before--at least not to this magnitude. Lee ended up taking home the AL Cy Young award after a brilliant season. So what happened during the off-season that transformed Cliff Lee into the top pitcher in the AL?

To answer that question we need to look at Lee's stats from previous years. Most people forget that he was a Cy Young candidate in 2005.

2004: 14-8 5.43 ERA 1.50 WHIP 8.1 K/9 2.0 K/BB 33.4 GB%
2005: 18-5 3.79 ERA 1.22 WHIP 6.4 K/9 2.8 K/BB 35.6 GB%
2006: 14-11 4.40 ERA 1.41 WHIP 5.8 K/9 2.2 K/BB 32.7 GB%
2007: 5-8 6.29 ERA 1.52 WHIP 6.1 K/9 1.8 K/BB 35.3 GB%
2008: 23-3 2.54 ERA 1.11 WHIP 6.9 K/9 5.0 K/BB 45.9 GB%

The first number that jumps out is Lee's sparkling 5.0 K/BB rate which is a dramatic improvement from his previous seasons. Since his K/9 rate stayed roughly the same as it had throughout his career, the increased K/BB rate means that Lee is giving up significantly fewer free passes.

Lee also managed to generate about 10% more groundballs than last year. Pitchers with groundball rates (GB%) of around 45-50% or higher usually fare better than pitchers who are significantly under 40% as groundballs are more likely to be turned into outs than flyballs or line drives. Up until 2008, Lee had always been an extreme fly ball pitcher, the 10% increase shows that his pitches have more vertical movement on them--another trait associated with success.

If Cliff Lee can keep up his fantastic K/BB and groundball rates, he should continue to find success, though maybe not to the extent that he did last year. Lee will be 31 years old this coming season, and while he seems to have already adapted to the physical decline, history is not kind to pitchers over 30 years old. If he can keep his peripheral stats up, about 15 wins with an ERA around 3.50 and a sub-1.30 WHIP is not out of the question. Lee will not repeat his dynamic 2008 season next year, but he still has the ability to be a top-20 starting pitcher in the future.

Sources
FanGraphs.com
Baseball-Reference.com

Steroid Primer

2009-01-12T22:12:00.007-05:00

With JC Romero getting busted for using performance enhancing drugs last week, its clear that baseball has not seen the last of its steroid problem. While we all know that steroids can help athletes build muscle and achieve superhuman feats, but how do they actually work?

Almost all of the steroids and human growth hormone (HGH) that ball players use comes in the form of an intramuscular injection, as this is the most potent and effective way. Once the athlete has injected himself, the steroids or HGH, connect with the body's natural steroid receptors. The receptors then send a chemical signal to the athlete's DNA, telling it to produce more testosterone. Testosterone, is a naturally occurring hormone in a male's body and helps aid in muscle growth. With increased testosterone in his body, the athlete is able to increase the productivity of his workouts and gain more muscle.It should be noted that for steroids to have any muscle building effect, the athlete still needs to work out.

Athletes usually use steroids in cycles to help reap the greatest benefits. Steroid cycles can range anywhere from a week to a few months of steroid use followed by a few weeks without steroid use to help combat some of the side-effects that steroids can have on the body. It is also common for athletes to use more than one type of steroid at a time, to help gain the maximum amount of muscle.

HGH was originally used by AIDS patients to help combat some of the side-effects from the final stages of the disease. Baseball players use it because it increases the size and definition of their muscles with little work. HGH can help players stay in shape in a sport like baseball where everyday workouts are not practical due to travel. Though it sounds like a miracle drug, increased HGH exposure can lead to devastating long-term side-effects including: increased risk of cancer, birth defects in children, heart irregularities, and Acromegaly--the extreme growth of appendages and facial features.

I hope that cleared up any confusion about steroids and how they work. As always, questions and comments are welcome and appreciated.

A Flurry of Redsox Moves

2009-01-10T20:27:00.007-05:00

Over the last few weeks, the Boston Red Sox have made a plethora of intriguing signings. Lets take a closer look:

Brad Penny - The former Dodgers ace will fight for the #5 rotation spot with Clay Bucholz and Michael Bowden. Boston took advantage of a solid low-risk opportunity--if it pans out, they get a pitcher who could get 15 wins with a 3.50 ERA. If Penny stumbles, the Redsox send him to AAA or the bullpen and Bucholz steps in.

Takashi Saito - Another former Dodger, Saito has been a lights-out closer since he came over from Japan. He was derailed by injuries in 2008 and will be 39 by opening day, but Saito can still be an excellent set-up man when healthy.

Josh Bard - Definitely not the best catcher in the league, but better than Jason Varitek at this point in his career. Bard will provide an affordable stopgap until the Redsox can find a long-term. solution.

Rocco Baldelli - Once a highly touted prospect with the Tampa Bay Rays, Baldelli will never live up to that potential due to his medical condition which causes extreme fatigue. However, Baldelli, who possesses a strong bat and good fielding ability, can still be useful as a pinch-hitter or a defensive replacement.

Junichi Tazawa - The 22 year old would have been the first pick in the Japanese Central League had he not decided to play in America. He should probably start his career in AA or AAA and has the upside of a #3 starter.

The Red Sox didn't get Mark Texietria or CC Sabathia like the Yankees, but they did sign productive, high upside role-players to complement their stars. Boston now has exceptional depth which should bode them well during the long season.

Top 100 Prospects: 89-80

2009-01-10T16:19:00.009-05:00

#89 Hank Conger, C, LAA - Conger had a breakout 2008 season hitting .303 with 13 homeruns and 75 RBI in 294 at-bats. The 20 year old may not have enough defense to stay at catcher and may be forced to move to DH, which will severely hinder his value. Also of concern, Conger only drew 14 walks compared to 55 strikeouts. If he can improve his plate discipline and stay at catcher, Conger should provide very good offensive value.

#88 Hector Rondon, P, CLE - The 20 year old had a strong season at A+ going 11-6 with a 3.60 ERA. In addition, Rondon showed dominance, striking out exactly 9 batters per nine innings, and control 3.1 K/BB rate. He should be entrenched in Cleveland's rotation sometime in 2011.

#87 Michael Bowden, P, BOS - After making his debut with Boston last September, Bowden should have a chance to fight for a full-time role in spring training. He split most of last year between AA and AAA and finished with 8.1 K/9, and a whopping 5.1 K/BB which illustrates his superior control. He should be seeing regular action as soon opening day, however mid-season is more likely.

#86 Aaron Hicks, CF, MIN - It's risky to make assumptions on rookie league performances, but Hicks' .314/.405/.491 line shows a lot of promise. The switch-hitter has the skills to be a dynamic leadoff hitter as well as play a gold glove centerfield. His first shot at full season ball should be intriguing, look for him in a Twins uniform in late 2012.

#85 Greg Golson, OF, TEX - Traded from Philadelphia over the off-season, Golson possesses an enticing combination of power and speed. During the 2008 season he spent most of the year at AA, hitting 13 homeruns and 60 RBI with a .282 batting average. Golson's problem is plate discipline, last year he struck out 130 times with only 32 walks. If he can get on base more, Golson could have star potential, he should reach the majors by 2010, if not sooner.

#84 Hector Gomez, SS, COL - Gomez was injured all of last year with various knee and leg injuries, when he's healthy the Dominican Republic product can flash the ability to hit for power and average. Expect him to unleash his offensive potential in A+next year and arrive in the majors by late 2011.

#83 Beau Mills, 1B, CLE - The 22 year old broke out last year in A+, hitting 21 homeruns and 90 RBI with a .291 average in 482 at-bats. Mills was very old for his level, this bears watching next year in AA, to see if he sinks or swims facing tougher competition. He should be in Cleveland by 2010.

#82 Kyle Skipworth, C, FLA - The 6th overall pick in last year's draft, Skipworth only got 151 at-bats--and didn't do much with them, hitting .192/.250/.331. Skipworth has above-average defense, as well as a bat that projects for above-average power and contact. Don't let the small sample size fool you, Skipworth can hit. He shouldn't reach the majors until 2013 at the earliest.

#81 Dominic Brown, OF, PHI - Brown had a solid 2008 season at A-, hitting .291 with 9 homeruns and 51 RBI in 444 at-bats. Brown complemented his power and contact skills with 22 stolen bases and 64 walks compared to 72 strikeouts. He should continue to grow as he moves through the minors, look for him in Philadelphia by 2012.

#80 Matt Antonelli, 2B, SD - Antonelli had one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory, compiling a line of .216/.335/.322 in 450 at-bats. If there was any bright spot in his abysmal '08 season, it was his plate discipline; he drew 76 walks and struck out 86 times. After only getting 187 at-bats at AA in 2007, Antonelli was promoted to AAA at the beginning of 2008. His awful season may have just been the result of being rushed. Look for a rebound in '09 and a call-up by mid-season.

That concludes #89-80, tune in next week, January 17th, for #79-70.

Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America

A Pair of Marlins Sluggers

2009-01-08T21:24:00.009-05:00

Last season, two Marins hitting prospects, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison, tore up their respective leagues as the duo combined to hit a whopping 52 homeruns. These two power hitters, along with Cameron Maybin and Chris Volstad provide a bright future for the Marlins who have struggled as of late.

Stanton was picked in the 2nd round or the 2007 draft. He possesses serious power which he showed off by hitting 39 homeruns at A- as a 19 year old. While he hit .293, Stanton struck out 153 times in 468 at-bats and will need to cut that number down as he ascends through the minors. The outfielder plays below average defense, however that shouldn't hinder him from reaching the majors. If he can improve his plate discipline, Stanton should be able to move quickly through the minors and become star in Florida's outfield for years to come.

Though he doesn't have the same kind of power as Stanton, Logan Morrison should be a star in his own right. Morrison hit .332 at A+ last year while striking out 80 times and walking 57 times in 488 at-bats last year in the offense-depressed Florida State League. The first baseman showed decent pop, hitting 13 homeruns and posting a .494 slugging percentage. Florida's first base position is wide open with the departure of Mike Jacobs. Morrison, who should start the season in AA has a chance to be a September callup in 2009 and a starter in 2010.

With a large crop of prospects ready to jump into the majors over the next 2 years, the Marlins should be contenders again. Look for them to make a playoff push in 2010.

2009 Breakout - JA Happ

2009-01-06T02:57:00.006-05:00

JA Happ was called up by the Philadelphia Phillies towards the end of last year. He started a four games last year (one in '07), but mostly he was used out of the bullpen. He ended up going 1 - 0 with a 3.69 ERA in 31.2 innings pitched. In the minor leagues, Happ was a strikeout pitcher and when he gets more innings in the majors more strikeouts should come for him. He has never been a pitcher that was very flashy and would win a lot of games or have the best ERA, but he has the tools to be very important for a full season in the majors and he will be able to keep the Phillies in each game.

Happ has worked his way up through the Phillies minor league organization and should be a key part of the pitching staff of the Phillies in 2009. Happ will either get the #5 spot in the rotation or will be playing an important part out of the bullpen, especially because of the most recent suspension of JC Romero for 50 games. Happ's innings pitched will go way up in 2009, so he will be able to get acclimated with the MLB and show how good and valuable he really is.

Projection Methodology

2009-01-05T20:05:00.004-05:00

As you can see below, we recently released our projections for batters. I would like to explain how we got these numbers. Clyde dropped the crystal ball we were planning on using, so these alternate processes will have to do.

We start with each player's career statistics. From there we calculate their 162 game average for all of the stat categories. Next, we multiply these numbers by a factor based on the individual player's age. Finally for rookies, we use something called an MLE to predict their stats for the upcoming season:

An MLE or Major League Equivalency helps us translate a player's minor league performance to a major league scale. The first MLE was developed by Bill James. In James' Baseball Abstract, where he released the MLE formulas, he said that MLEs for players in AA and AAA have the same predictive value as major league stats while the accuracy drops off for A+, A-, and rookie league (it is important to note that these can still be calculated, they are just less accurate due to the wide gap in level of play between the MLB and A ball). We only use AA and AAA MLEs in our projections.

Once the MLEs are calculated, they are added to the player's career stats and the same process is performed. I hope this gives everyone an insight on how we calculated our projections for batters. Feel free to Email or comment with any questions.

Projections are Here!

2009-01-04T15:47:00.004-05:00

Our hitting projections are finished, email baseballstalker@gmail.com and we'll send you our projections spreadsheet (PDF also available).

Pitcher projections will be out in a few weeks.

Top 100 Prospects: 100-90

2009-01-03T01:49:00.012-05:00

Over the next few months, will begin releasing our top 100 prospect list over the next 10 Saturdays. Today we will start with 100-90 and work backwards, without further ado...

#100 Chris Nelson, SS, COL - After having a breakout season in A+, Nelson struggled with AA throughout his injury riddled 2008 season. At the Arizona Fall League this October, a healthy Nelson showed the ability to hit for power and average, compiling a line 6/17/.321 in 84 at-bats. Look for him to reach the majors by 2011.

#99 Hak Ju Lee, SS, CHC - The 17 year old Lee has not played an inning of baseball in America yet however, he projects to rate at an 80 in speed (on the 20-80 scouting scale). It's unknown how well he will stack up against players in America, but he should hit for a solid average when he reaches the majors (probably not before 2013).

#98 Kyle Drabek, P, PHI - He could be ranked in the top 10 if not for his injuries and questionable character. Drabek, the son of former major league pitcher, Doug Drabek, possesses a mid-90's fastball and a hard-breaking curveball which sits in the low 80's. He had Tommy John Surgery last year and won't be ready until June.

#97 Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL - Reimold has hit for power at every minor league stop, he has also been old for his level most of the time(24 years old in AA). If he can break into the majors sometime in 2009, Reimold should be able to hit for power right away, the rest of his game lags behind.

#96 Cory Scarpetta, P, MIN - Scarpetta is still young and somewhat raw, however he shows potential to generate a lot of groundballs and strike batters out. Keep an eye on the 19 year-old this season in A-.

#95 Jeremy Hellickson, P, TB - The 21 year-old had a good season in AA, his biggest problem is the lack of big league rotation spots. Unless there is an injury in Tampa's rotation in '09, he might have to break into the majors as a reliever.

#94 Bryan Anderson, C, STL - The heir-apparent to Yadier Molina had another solid season in AAA. When he reaches the majors Anderson should hit for high average and minimal power with average to below-average defense.

#93 Ross Detwiler, P, WAS - Detwiler got a taste of the majors in '07, even though he spent most of the season in A+. In 2008, the flame-throwing lefty repeated A+ and struggled mightily with control and giving up the long ball. His stuff has never been questioned, if Detwiler can regain the poise he had in '07 he should move through the system quickly.

#92 Michael Almanzar, 3B, BOS - Almanzar reached A- at 17 years old last year, but he probably won't reach the majors until 2013. As a big leaguer, Almanzar should hit for both power and average.

#91 Jason Donald, SS, PHI - Donald could start in the majors at 2B in '09 if Chase Utley has setbacks with hip surgery. At The Arizona Fall League, the Phillies moved Donald around, trying him at both 2B and 3B. Realistically Donald's best chance to break into the majors with a full-time gig would be at 3B, where only Pedro Feliz stands in his way.

#90 Danny Duffy, P, KAN - The 19 year old lefty has an electric arm and absolutely mowed down batters in A- this year. Duffy struck out over 11 batters per 9 innings and had a 4 K/BB rate last year. Even though he is an extreme fly ball pitcher, his stuff is good enough for him to last in the big leagues. Look for Duffy to be in the majors by 2011.

Tune in next Saturday, January 10th, for #'s 89-80

Sources
FirstInning.com
Baseball America

The New York Yankees and Their Minor League System

2009-01-01T01:51:00.009-05:00

Happy New Year!

The New York Yankees have always been known for spending money to get the big named players. This off-season is no different. They went out and signed C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Texeira, neither of who was cheap by any means. Even though the Yankees spend and spend and spend, lately they have been using their minor league system more extensively than in previous years.

The turnaround of the Yankees' notoriously bad farm system started in 2005 when Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, and Chien-Ming Wang started to play everyday for the Yankees. All three of them were signed internationally and worked their way up through the Yankees minor league system. Cabrera and Cano have been regulars since 2005, and Wang has developed into a solid innings-eater.

2007 was their next year of really showing off the talent that they had in the minors, when they introduced the baseball world to Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Edwar Ramirez. Joba was tremendous in his 24 innings pitched out of the bullpen, when he struck out 34, walked only 6, and had an ERA of 0.38. Hughes, Kennedy, and Ramirez pitched well in the few games that they started for the Yankees late in ’07. All four pitchers have extreme talent and if they can overcome injuries that have plagued them early in their pro careers, then watch out!

In 2008, more players were called up from the minors, though not as well known as Joba, Hughes, Wang, etc, they are key role players for the Yankees. They include: Justin Christian, Brett Gardner, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, Chase Wright, and Juan Miranda. These players may never turn into superstars, however they will develop into solid role players--something the Yankee teams of this decade have been short of . These players are the ones that lead the Yankees' AA team (Trenton Thunder) to two straight Eastern League Championships (’07 and ’08). They are talented and can perfectly complement the free agent talent that their parent club has acquired.

The Yankees have a couple big named prospects in the minor leagues right now in Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero. Austin Jackson could be up at some point next year, but if not he should definitely be seeing regular playing time in 2010. He possesses incredible speed which will help him patrol center field and hit at the top of the lineup. Jesus Montero is an absolute monster. He has extreme power and is just a stud hitter. He is a catcher right now, but his defense is not very good, so a move to 1B or DH is more likely. Montero is 19 years old, so he is probably a couple years away from the majors, but when he does get the call up he is going to be a great hitter for the Yankees.

The Yankees are still spending the big bucks on big named free agents, but now they are using international signings and the draft to build a more complete team. We also cannot forget that the Yankees drafted both Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada and its definitely safe to say they turned out pretty good. The 2009 Yankees will need their minor league system players just as much as their big free agent signings, if they are going to be successful and fight for another World Series Championship.

What happened to Jeff Francoeur?

2008-12-30T23:51:00.011-05:00

Before 2008, Jeff Francoeur was touted as a rising star, showing he could hit for both power and average with solid defense. Last year, however, Francoeur put up the worst numbers in his professional career, at 24, an age when hitters are supposed to be breaking out, not severely regressing. Below are Francoeur's numbers for the last 3 seasons:

2006: 29/103/.260 .17 K/BB .286 BABIP
2007: 19/105/.293 .33 K/BB .342 BABIP
2008: 11/70/.239 .35 K/BB .277 BABIP

There are a few positive trends in Francoeur's 2008 numbers. His K/BB rate has risen each year which shows that his plate discipline, while still below-average, is improving. His K% has improved from 20.3% in 2006 to 18.5% in 2008--these gains are not monumental, but they do reflect his steady improvement.

Unfortunately, it looks like his 2007 batting average was a bit of a fluke, however, his '06 and '08 batting averages were also probably a little low. In the future Francoeur's BABIP numbers should fall somewhere between his extremely high '07 season and somewhat low '06 and '08 seasons--look for his BABIP to stabilize around .306, his career average; this means his future batting averages should fall around the .270-.280 range.

It appears that Jeff Francoeur's poor 2008 season was mostly a product of bad luck. He shows steadily improving plate discipline trends and couples them with tremendous power, which should which should bode him well in the future. Look for Francoeur to rebound in 2009.

Return of the World Champion's Starting Rotation

2008-12-30T11:23:00.012-05:00

This off-season the San Fransisco Giants were not the only team signing a 40+ year old pitcher. The Philadelphia Phillies re-signed Jamie Moyer (46), which means that the rotation that took the Phillies to the World Series will be back in 2009. Here's how it looks:

#1 Starter - Cole Hamels: 14-10 3.09 ERA 7.76 K/9 3.70 K/BB
#2 Starter - Brett Myers: 10-13 4.55 ERA 7.72 K/9 2.51 K/BB
#3 Starter - Jamie Moyer: 16-7 3.71 ERA 5.64 K/9 1.98 K/BB
#4 Starter - Joe Blanton: 9-12 4.69 ERA 5.05 K/9 1.68 K/BB
#5 Starter - Kyle Kendrick: 11-9 5.49 ERA 3.93 K/9 1.19 K/BB

Cole Hamels is one of the top pitchers in the NL and in all of baseball. His record did not do Cole Hamels any justice last year, due to the lack of run support he received. He showed in the playoffs how dominant he can be and I believe that his recent performance in the playoffs will translate into his best regular season in 2009.

Brett Myers was awful at the beginning of the 2008 season. He was giving up homeruns left and right and was not pitching as well as he has in the past. He was sent down to the minors and after spending some time at the A, AA, and AAA levels he returned to the Phillies and pitched a lot better. If he can pitch the way he did at the end 2008 in 2009, then he should have a solid year and have much better numbers than he did in 2008. The Phillies need him to be successful.

Jamie Moyer continues to surprise and impress everyone. He is 46 years old and he had one of his best years statistically last year and he won 16 games. He was re-signed in the off-season for 2 more years, which means he will be pitching in 4 different decades. The Phillies are not going to ask much of him, just keep doing what he has been doing, which is be a leader in the clubhouse, an example on the field, and be a pitching genius that he has always been.

Joe Blanton was traded to Philadelphia from Oakland in the middle of last season. Blanton pitched well and did not lose a game in a Phillies uniform. In 2007 Blanton pitched extremely well and if he can return to that form than that would be great for the Phillies rotation. He is a good pitcher and he will eat up innings and keep the Phillies in the games that he pitches.

Kyle Kendrick won 11 games, but really did not pitch too well and by the end of the year was not in the rotation. I believe that his spot in the rotation is up for grabs and that J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco can jump into that 5th spot if either have a good spring training.

The Phillies rotation that won them a World Series has the potential to be better in 2009 than they were in 2008. Joe Blanton will have more opportunity to pitch with the Phillies and he showed in the World Series that he is a good pitcher, the #5 starter spot might improve with the addition of J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco, and if Cole Hamels gets run support he could close to a 20 game winner. If that starting rotation can give turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball, which consists of J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, and Brad Lidge, then the Phillies will definitely be in the hunt to defend their title.

Randy Johnson's Impact on the Giants Staff

2008-12-29T22:19:00.010-05:00

Over the weekend Randy Johnson signed a 1 year deal with the San Francisco Giants. It now seems that Brian Seaban has put together a pretty good rotation anchored by home grown talent.

#1 Starter - Tim Lincecum: 18-5 2.62 ERA 10.5 K/9 3.2 K/BB
#2 Starter - Matt Cain: 8-14 3.76 ERA 7.7 K/9 3.8 K/BB
#3 Starter - Randy Johnson: 11-10 3.91 ERA 8.5 K/9 3.9 K/BB
#4 Starter - Jonathan Sanchez: 9-12 5.01 ERA 8.9 K/9 2.1 K/BB
#5 Starter - Noah Lowry - DNP(Injured)

Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in the NL, maybe in all of baseball. Despite being just 24, Lincecum has already won a Cy Young award and should be expected to have another successful year.

Over the past two years Matt Cain has gotten virtually no run support at all, bringing down his win totals. Make no mistake about it, Matt Cain is a stud. He should get better run support this year which hopefully will lead to more wins.

Though he is 45 years old, Randy Johnson is still an above average NL pitcher who will strike out almost a batter per inning and keep a low ERA. No longer an ace, but still very good.

Sanchez should improve on his rookie season. like Johnson he strikes out almost a batter per inning, however he struggles with his control. If he can keep his walks down, Jonathan Sanchez should be at least average this year.

Noah Lowry was injured all of last year, he is expected to be ready by opening day. His skills have started to decline, but with a healthy elbow he could have a resurgence. He and Johnson will provide excellent stopgaps until the Giants two stud pitching prospects, Tim Alderson and Madison Bumgarner, are ready.

As you can see Randy Johnson helps sure up the Giants rotation, hopefully pushing Barry Zito to middle relief (or better yet the minor leagues). At this point in his career, Johnson is no longer capable of being an ace, however he can be still be an above average innings eater for San Francisco this year and provide veteran leadership for an otherwise young rotation. Add in Jeremy Affeldt to help sure up the bullpen and you have one of the better pitching staffs in the National League. Now if they only had offense...

Best Leadoff Hitter in Baseball

2008-12-28T23:22:00.012-05:00

After seeing the recent signing by the Cincinnati Reds of new starting center fielder and leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras, it got me thinking about the best leadoff hitters in baseball. What makes a good leadoff hitter? A player who makes a pitcher work, gets on base any way that he can, jump starts the offense, and scores runs.

In my opinion the best leadoff hitter in baseball is Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners. He does everything you could ask for in a leadoff hitter. He consistently hits over .300, he consistently gets 200 hits a season, he consistently scores over 100 runs a season, he steals bases, and he does not strike out a whole lot. He does it all and is very good. Other notable lead off men, such as Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Grady Sizemore (just to name a few), are extremely talented and great leadoff hitters, but they lack the consistency and the ability to do everything like Ichiro can.

It is a shame that this great athlete came over to America later in his career, but what he has done in that leadoff spot since coming to Seattle has been amazing. Expect Ichiro to perform at the same level in 2009 that he has been throughout his career.

Under the Radar Prospect - Kila Ka’aihue

2008-12-28T23:06:00.012-05:00

Age - 24
Position - 1B/DH
Games Played - 124
AB - 391
Runs - 91
Hits - 126
Homeruns - 37
RBIs - 100
Walks - 104
Strikeouts - 67
BA - .315
OBP - .451
SLG - .632
OPS - 1.083

Kila Ka’aihue had a great year in 2008 playing for Kansas City's AA and AAA minor league teams, but he has not gotten the attention that he deserves. In Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook Kila Ka’aihue was not mentioned at all for the Royals. They chose 30 players instead of him and I think they missed a very good player. Maybe it had to do with age, but I believe this guy is definitely a worthy prospect. He walked almost 40 more times than he struck out, which is unreal for a power hitting prospect!

In 2008 Kila Ka’aihue was called up at the end of the year and played 12 games. In those 12 games he hit .286, with 21 ABs, 6 hits, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 homerun, 1 rbi, and 4 runs. Those are solid numbers for a guy who was not given a lot of opportunity to prove himself. I do not know why he was not called up earlier because he proved himself in the minors and the Royals did not have a first basemen or DH that really stood out that would hinder Kila Ka’aihue from moving up.

I do not think that his numbers in the majors will be as good as his numbers in the minors, but I believe that Kila Ka’aihue could be a very solid player at the major league level. Hopefully the Royals give him a chance to prove himself and hopefully Baseball America and other prospect writers will give him the respect that he deserves. Watch out for Kila Ka’aihue as a major sleeper prospect in the 2009 season.